量包括成交金额占总市值比例、换手率。 价包括当日收涨的股票数量占比、近3个月收涨的股票占比。 中信建投证券发布研报称，相较2014年5月-2015年6月那一轮流动性牛市，2024年9月至今的牛市，市场情绪有相似之处，也有诸多不同。相较而言，本轮 牛市的成交额、换手率等"量"的层面情绪近似上一轮牛市顶峰，但"资金"、"估值"、"风险溢价"这三个维度的情绪指标仍有差距，主要因为当前牛市结构 性特征更明显，若走向全面牛市，后三个维度的情绪指标才会快速走高。 中信建投主要观点如下： 一、如何构建一套完整的情绪指标？ 衡量市场情绪，我们从五个维度出发："量"、"价"、"资金"、"估值"、"风险溢价"。 资金层面，涵盖主动买入净额占成交金额的比例，公募基金股票仓位、融资买入额占成交金额比例及融资余额占A股市值比例。 估值层面，选择万得全A整体动态市盈率、31个申万行业平均动态市盈率、万得全A整体市净率。 风险溢价，则是万得全A隐含收益率与10年国债收益率之差。 我们将以上5个层面、共12个指标，先计算各自的历史分位数水平，加总取平均值，作为全方位衡量市场情绪的总指数。 | | 分项 | 当日分位数 | 环比 | | -- ...

配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注TMT和先进制造板块。市场处于震荡的过程中 时，前期滞涨方向可能表现会更好，对应于本轮即为高股息及消费板块。中期来看，流动性驱动行情 下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如此。若行情转向基本面驱动，考虑到当前行情或 正处于中期，先进制造值得重点关注。 风险分析：海外风险扰动超预期；历史规律出现失效；市场情绪大幅下降。 A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.16%，创业板指涨0.32%。盘面上，商业航天、军工、证券板块涨幅居 前，光伏、消费电子、煤炭板块跌幅靠前。 机构看后市 中信证券：当前震荡及结构性机会轮动为常态，聚焦资源重估与企业出海方向 中信证券认为，当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策 略在当下遭遇一定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民 币的潜在升值压力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之 前，配置上延续资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 本周A股市场收涨 本周A股市场收涨。本周A股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中小100等指数涨幅居前，上证50、上证指 数涨幅靠后。从估值来看，当前科创50、万得全A等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025年11月28日，其 2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于80%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行等行业 跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数大多收涨，仅大盘价值收跌，小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居 前。分行业来看，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子、综合等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行、煤炭 等行业跌幅居前。 报告摘要 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛 ...

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with the overall direction still in a bull market [2] - Short-term market may lack strong catalysts, leading to a focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention shifts to TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [2] Price Increase Trends - The market is currently experiencing a "price increase diffusion" trend, particularly in the energy storage industry, with significant price rises in upstream and midstream materials due to supply-demand mismatches and growing storage demand [3] - The energy storage market is becoming a new growth direction for the lithium battery sector, with high configuration value in the tight links of the entire industry chain [3] AI Sector Insights - The AI sector continues to show strong demand, but there are notable supply shortages; focus should be on storage chips, gas turbines, SOFC batteries, solid-state transformers, and energy storage [4] - The AI demand remains robust, but the supply side issues need to be addressed, suggesting a wait for new catalysts in the AI market [4] Aviation Industry - The supply-demand dynamics in the aviation sector are improving, with expectations of reduced supply growth and improved ticket prices due to high passenger load factors [5] - The industry is projected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2025, with profit elasticity expected to be released in 2026 [5] Gold Market - The liquidity crisis is easing, leading to a recovery in gold prices as short-term pressures are alleviated [6] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, key economic data will be disclosed, allowing the Federal Reserve to reassess the economic situation, supporting a mid-term bullish outlook for gold [6]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.26% this week, closing at 26,572.46 points, while the Tech Index decreased by 0.42% to 5,812.80 points, and the National Enterprises Index rose by 1.41% to 9,397.96 points [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market are closely related to external environments, particularly the impact of the U.S. government shutdown, which temporarily locked nearly one trillion dollars in liquidity, raising the cost of dollar funds and pressuring risk assets like U.S. and Hong Kong stocks [4]. - A recent report from Western Securities suggests that the end of the U.S. government shutdown may release previously "frozen" dollar liquidity, potentially leading to a liquidity-driven rally in the Hong Kong stock market [4]. Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has provided strong support, with net purchases through the Stock Connect exceeding HKD 1.3 trillion this year, totaling over HKD 5 trillion, indicating a shift towards a "semi-onshore market" where domestic capital plays a more significant role in pricing [4]. Sector Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks have seen renewed interest, with notable gains: - Gilead Sciences (01672.HK) up 45.40% - Clover Biopharmaceuticals (02197.HK) up 29.95% - Yummy (02589.HK) up 18.81% - The positive performance is attributed to strong Q3 results in innovative drugs and life sciences sectors [5]. - Other notable performers include: - HuShang Ayi (02589.HK) up 31.44% due to a new ten-year H-share incentive plan and reaching over 10,739 stores [5]. - Lee & Man Paper (00746.HK) up 17.37% benefiting from rising paper prices [5]. - Conversely, companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050.HK) and Legend Holdings (06683.HK) faced declines of 10.93% and 19.82%, respectively, due to market risk aversion and concerns over equity dilution from a recent share placement [5]. Gold and Automotive Sectors - Gold stocks weakened following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with China Gold International (02099.HK) down 3.94% and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) down 2.94% [6][7]. - The automotive sector also faced declines, with Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) down 6.80% amid a drop in retail sales of passenger cars by 19% year-on-year for the first nine days of November [10][11]. Brokerage and Semiconductor Stocks - Chinese brokerage stocks adjusted, with major firms like GF Securities (01776.HK) and China Galaxy (06881.HK) experiencing declines due to a significant drop in new account openings [13]. - Semiconductor stocks also fell, influenced by a broader sell-off in U.S. tech stocks, with Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) down 5.92% and SMIC (00981.HK) down 2.78% [14][16]. Individual Stock Movements - Lehua Entertainment (02306.HK) rose nearly 8% amid speculation regarding a contract renewal with a prominent artist [18]. - Zhonghui Biopharmaceuticals (02627.HK) increased by over 6% after announcing the initiation of Phase I clinical trials for its flu vaccines [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities emphasizes a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term, while suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and consumer sectors if market volatility occurs [1] Industry Focus - The TMT sector is expected to be a main focus due to several catalysts, including the onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing development of the AI industry, which provides upward momentum [1] - In the event of a market shift towards fundamentals, advanced manufacturing is highlighted as a key area of interest, indicating its potential for growth in the current mid-term market phase [1] Market Conditions - If market turbulence arises, attention should be directed towards sectors that are lagging, such as high-dividend stocks and consumer sectors, which include industries like banking, utilities, food and beverage, and beauty care [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities emphasizes a focus on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the mid-term, while suggesting a shift towards high-dividend and consumer sectors if market volatility occurs [1] Industry Focus - Mid-term attention is directed towards the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with TMT likely to be a main focus during liquidity-driven market conditions [1] - The TMT sector currently has several catalysts, including the onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle and the ongoing development of the AI industry, which provide upward momentum [1] Market Conditions - If the market shifts towards being driven by fundamentals, advanced manufacturing should be a key area of focus, as the current market may be in a mid-term phase [1] - In the event of market turbulence, sectors that are lagging, such as high-dividend stocks and consumer sectors, should be monitored, including industries like banking, utilities, food and beverage, and personal care [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the disparity between retail investors and institutional investors in the current market, highlighting the challenges faced by individual investors in identifying trends and making informed decisions [2][17] - The recent surge in the liquid cooling concept stocks illustrates the difference in performance among stocks within the same sector, with some doubling in value while others decline [6][13] - Institutional investors began positioning themselves in certain stocks as early as June, indicating that the apparent sudden movements in stock prices were actually preceded by strategic investments [8][17] Group 2 - The IPO of Changxin Technology, valued at 140 billion, is expected to reshape the semiconductor industry landscape, prompting a need for retail investors to rethink their strategies [17] - The article suggests that retail investors should focus on quantifiable data regarding institutional investment behavior rather than attempting to predict market movements based on speculation [17] - It is advised that investors utilize quantitative tools to track institutional footprints, which can help avoid poorly performing stocks and enhance decision-making in a market driven by algorithms [17]

Core Viewpoint - The TMT sector is expected to be a key focus in the current market driven by liquidity, with several catalysts present, including advancements in AI and significant growth in Oracle's remaining performance obligations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Cathay Science and Technology Innovation Index ETF (589630) rose over 2.8% on October 9 [1] - The index tracks the Science and Technology Innovation Index (000680), which reflects the overall performance of eligible listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT sector is highlighted as having multiple catalysts, such as Alibaba's launch of a more efficient AI model and Oracle's substantial increase in remaining performance obligations [1] - If the market shifts towards a fundamentals-driven approach, advanced manufacturing will be a key area of focus, particularly in mechanical equipment and military industries [1] - The electrical equipment sector is also noted for frequent catalysts related to solid-state batteries [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In October, sectors to watch include electronics, electrical equipment, communications, media, and mechanical equipment [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, influenced by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the STAR 50 index rising by 6.5% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% [1][9][10] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is currently at a historically moderate to high level since 2010 [1][9][10] - Market style has shifted towards growth, with large-cap growth stocks increasing by 2.5% while small-cap value stocks decreased by 0.8% [1][12][19] Group 2 - Recent policy developments include the maintenance of the LPR rates at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with no new special treatment sought by China in WTO negotiations [2][17][18] - The steel industry has received a growth stabilization plan from five departments, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [2][21] - Major tech events include the 2025 Yunqi Conference where Alibaba Cloud showcased innovations, and Huawei's launch of new electric vehicle models, indicating ongoing advancements in the TMT sector [2][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market fluctuations align with historical patterns, with potential adjustments expected to narrow the market's upward movement to 6%-7% [3][23] - The logic supporting the current bull market remains intact, with expectations for continued stability in the economic fundamentals and a favorable environment for TMT sectors [3][24][33] - The TMT sector is anticipated to be a key focus for mid-term investments, driven by liquidity and recent positive developments in the industry [3][37][45]