Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].

补齐消费短板是当前经济不可或缺的助推力。 9日国家统计局公布7月份物价水平数据：7月CPI同比增长0，前值为0.1%，其中核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；7月PPI同比增长-3.6%，前值-3.6%。 最新的CPI尽管同比有所回落，但受学生假期效应等影响，环比出现0.4%的增长，经济延续边际改善态 势。PPI同比与上月持平，环比降幅有所缓和，反映最近反内卷行动成效显现。 社保体系查漏补缺式的改革，将切切实实改变经济社会的需求弹性，改变人们可支配收入的心理账户分 布结构，推动人们对消费和储蓄相对价格的改变。这也将发挥消费的乘数效应，且消费偏好将丰富市场 信息，使企业家能方便捕捉到市场需求结构，进行创新投资。 当前还需积极推动市场化改革，完善全国统一大市场建设，真正向市场放手和放权。创新发展是一种集 体无意识行为相互博弈出现的类似生物学的涌现现象，这种涌现是通过市场主体在自由市场的相互交流 和纠缠产生的。通过适度的放手和放权，给市场更多自由空间，投资收益率才能得到边际改善，更多的 经济福祉通过个人可支配收入带动下的消费进入经济循环，经济才能真正产生内稳性，向上生长。 这些将极大改变经济的需求弹性 ...

最新宏观经济数据再次警示，单纯地通过刺激消费的政策，并不能真正让消费者基于偏好满足而进行消 费，因此也就难以真正有效改变消费者偏好和需求弹性，政策刺激的结果是把未来的消费前移，但并没 增加最终消费需求总量，最终也容易加大未来的有效需求不足压力。 这是因为，若市场主体收入结构、对未来收入和工作的安全感等没变化，抑或容易产生不稳定担忧等， 引导需求弹性变化的消费者心理账户结构不仅没有产生对即期消费的偏好，而且甚至可能会产生明显的 损失规避效应。 为此，巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上 改变人们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上改变人 们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 补齐消费短板是当前经济不可或缺的助推力。 9日国家统计局公布7月份物价水平数据：7月CPI同比增长0，前值为0.1%，其中核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；7月PPI同比增长-3.6%，前值-3.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for stimulating domestic consumption in China amidst economic uncertainties, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between consumption and investment to achieve sustainable growth [4][19]. Economic Growth Analysis - In the first half of 2023, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, investment at 16.8%, and exports at 31.2% [4]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth increased slightly in the second quarter to 52.3%, while investment and export contributions were 24.7% and 23%, respectively [4]. Investment vs. Consumption - The relationship between investment and consumption is framed as a choice between immediate consumption versus future consumption, highlighting the importance of investment for long-term economic growth [10][12]. - The article argues against the notion of a purely "consumption-driven" growth model, stating that economic growth is fundamentally driven by capital, labor, and technology rather than consumption alone [9][17]. Infrastructure Investment - The article advocates for increased infrastructure investment as a means to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the potential for infrastructure investment in China is far from saturated [6][22]. - It is noted that infrastructure investment can have immediate positive effects on economic growth, with a multiplier effect that generates additional income and consumption [22][24]. Consumption Patterns - The article highlights the differences in consumption patterns between China and the U.S., noting that while China's consumption rate is lower, the actual consumption levels in certain sectors may not be significantly different [14][15]. - It emphasizes that the structure of consumption in China is heavily weighted towards goods rather than services, which affects the overall consumption rate [15][16]. Income Distribution and Consumption - The article points out the issue of income inequality in China, with a high Gini coefficient indicating significant income disparity, which can impact overall consumption levels [18]. - It suggests that addressing income distribution issues could enhance marginal propensity to consume, thereby stimulating economic growth [18][20]. Policy Recommendations - The article recommends various measures to boost consumption, including issuing consumption vouchers, reducing personal income tax, and reforming the social security system [20][21]. - It also discusses the importance of accurately measuring disposable income in relation to GDP, noting discrepancies in statistical methods that could misrepresent the true economic situation [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that consumer spending has not become a driving factor in the current economic landscape [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions indicate that consumer spending is not significantly influencing growth [1] - The focus may need to shift towards other economic indicators to assess the overall health of the economy [1]

Core Insights - Emerging markets are seen as key engines for global economic growth, with a focus on how they can maintain stability amid geopolitical tensions and changing trade relationships [1][3] - The shift from export-driven to consumption-driven economic models in China is a significant topic of discussion, emphasizing the need for domestic consumption and investment [3][4] Group 1: Economic Trends and Predictions - China's GDP growth is expected to exceed 5% in the second half of the year, driven by improving macroeconomic indicators, particularly in consumption [4] - The transition to a consumption-driven economy will require time and effort, with a growing emphasis on boosting consumer confidence [4][6] - Structural issues such as real estate, financial risks, and local fiscal pressures need to be addressed for sustainable economic recovery [5] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Focus - Domestic consumption is identified as a primary challenge for China's economy, with a significant gap of about 20 percentage points compared to the international average [6][7] - The focus should be on enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups and promoting service-oriented consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and social security [7][8] - Recent data shows a notable increase in retail sales, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in May, indicating positive effects from government stimulus measures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry is experiencing unprecedented opportunities and transformations as it shifts from a production-driven model to a consumption-driven one, with brand building in the new communication ecosystem being crucial [1][2] Group 1: Demand Aspects - Consumer demand is characterized by diversity, speed, quality, and cost-effectiveness, with a focus on emotional and rational decision-making [1] - The tourism consumption power is evolving towards more refined and personalized experiences, driven by consumers' increasing quality expectations and price sensitivity [1] Group 2: Supply Aspects - New technologies such as AI models and low-altitude economy are reshaping consumption patterns and injecting new momentum into the industry [2] - The transition to a consumption-driven model is redefining the future landscape of the tourism industry, enhancing operational efficiency and creating new customized and experiential tourism scenarios [2] Group 3: Brand Building - Brand building in the new communication ecosystem is essential for driving innovative consumption power, serving as the soul of the transformation [2] - The collaboration of various sectors, including academia and media, is aimed at deepening industry research and promoting resource integration to support brand storytelling and value dissemination [2]

Group 1 - Chinese customers have a significantly higher demand for quality experiences compared to the global average, with 92% choosing brands based on expected experiences, far exceeding the global level of 70% [1] - 87% of Chinese customers are willing to pay a premium for better experiences, nearly double the global average of 46%, indicating that enhancing experience quality is crucial for attracting customers and translating into commercial value [1] - Emotional dependence is a core factor for successful customer experiences, with 73% of customers whose experiences meet or exceed expectations developing emotional ties to brands, compared to only 5% for those with unmet expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The primary driving force for customer experience in China is "pleasure," which is more significant than "certainty" and "fairness," reflecting the emotional value that Chinese customers place on their experiences [2] - Key factors enhancing "pleasure" include clear communication (57%), experiences aligning with brand promises (56%), and delivery quality (58%), while "fairness" relies on clear communication (61%) and promise fulfillment (58%) [2] - There is room for improvement in areas such as "control," "certainty," and personalization, as well as ESG aspects in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the mobile phone (62%) and banking (61%) sectors in China excel in establishing emotional ties compared to global averages, while insurance (54%) and mobile operators (56%) lag behind [3] - The recommendation willingness (NPS) across various industries in China is higher than the global average, with mobile phones (53%) and banking (58%) showing particularly strong performance [3] - Chinese customers are more reliant on word-of-mouth recommendations for first-time purchase decisions (37% impact) compared to the global average of 23%, and customers acquired through recommendations are more likely to make subsequent recommendations [3] Group 4 - Brands should prioritize optimizing basic experiences such as communication and delivery quality while focusing on differentiated forces like respect and a sense of belonging [4] - Strengthening the emotional value related to "pleasure" and enhancing consistency across all channels are key to building competitive advantages in the Chinese market [4] - Despite the current low trust in AI applications, reasonable optimization could still become a potential breakthrough for experience upgrades [4] Group 5 - Overall, the Chinese customer experience market is characterized by "high expectations, emotional emphasis, and differentiation-driven" features, with brands needing to base their strategies on experience quality and emotional connections to continuously meet dynamic demands [5]

中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者余永定 关于"消费驱动"这一说法，谈论最多的是美国经济学家，例如克鲁格曼和萨默斯。克鲁格曼声 称，中国长期以来"投资驱动"的增长方式使中国经济濒临金融危机的边缘；萨默斯则认为，中 国"投资驱动"的增长模式已经走到了尽头。 在讨论"投资驱动"还是"消费驱动"的选择时，首先要明确我们所讨论的是长期经济增长问题还 是短期宏观调控问题。西方学界谈论中国的"投资驱动"时，实际上是指中国的经济增长战略和 增长模式，即 所谓的Growth Strategy或Paradigm。 如何 实现中国经济的长期稳定增长（发展）同在某个特定年度如何使中国经济增速实现某个特 定经济增速目标如2025年如何实现5%的GDP增速目标，是两个性质完全不同的问题。前者关 注中、长期经济增长，研究的是供给方问题；后者侧重短期调节，研究的是需求方问题。 作为 长期经济增长问题，根本不存在 "消费驱动"这样一种经济增长方式。 对决策者来说，在不同时期，由于条件不同，经济增长对投资、劳动投入和技术进步的依赖程 度会有所不同，在不同时期的增长模式可以贴上"投资驱动"、"劳动力驱动 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is a significant player in the global economic landscape, characterized by its large economic scale, diverse industrial structure, strong technological capabilities, and active financial markets [1] - Despite its strengths, the U.S. economy faces deep-rooted challenges and uncertainties while also presenting new development opportunities and potential for reshaping [1] Group 2: Technology as a Driving Force - Technology is the core driving force behind the U.S. economy's leading position, with Silicon Valley being a hub for top tech talent and innovation [2] - Major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft are making breakthroughs in fields such as information technology, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and renewable energy, injecting continuous vitality into the U.S. economy [2][4] Group 3: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, accounting for approximately 70% of the GDP [5][7] - The large middle-class population in the U.S. drives demand across various sectors, from everyday goods to luxury items, influencing economic growth [5][7] Group 4: Financial Market Dominance - The U.S. has the most developed financial markets globally, with the dollar serving as the dominant international reserve currency, granting the U.S. significant influence in global economic matters [8][10] - While financial dominance provides strong financing capabilities, it also leads to risks such as economic hollowing and potential financial crises due to over-reliance on financial mechanisms [10] Group 5: Trade Tensions - Recent trade tensions have emerged as a significant challenge for the U.S. economy, with the government implementing protectionist measures and tariffs that have strained global trade relations [11][13] - Increased tariffs raise import costs for U.S. companies, impacting their competitiveness and leading to higher consumer prices, which in turn affects living costs [13] Group 6: Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is actively seeking transformation and adaptation in response to challenges, with a focus on advancing research in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and renewable energy [14][16] - Efforts are being made to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through policy support and tax incentives, while also enhancing financial regulation and exploring digital currency development [16]