Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upwards, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The US Senate passing a temporary funding bill and China's measures to boost private investment have lifted market sentiment. LME copper inventories increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons, Comex inventories rose by 2,662 tons to 337,752 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventories decreased by 0.38 million tons to 19.95 million tons. Copper prices may show short - term optimism, and attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. The market is in a state of internal - external differentiation, and electrolytic aluminum will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities of AD after the narrowing of the price difference [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.53% to $15,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel remained flat at 119,490 yuan per ton. Indonesia has suspended new nickel smelter licenses. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is sluggish, and the new energy industry chain has a slight increase in the discount coefficient. Nickel prices may still fluctuate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by US and Chinese policies. Changes in inventory and demand, and the impact of LME's new rules. Short - term optimism with attention to market and inventory [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increase, compressed alumina factory profits, internal - external differentiation, and short - term high - level adjustment [1][3]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increase, Indonesia's new policy, weak raw material support in the industry chain, and potential price fluctuations [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various aspects such as market prices, scrap copper, and downstream products. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories [4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream processing fees. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes in zinc products, TC, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes in tin products, inventory changes in LME and SHFE [7]. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit trends of copper, aluminum, nickel - iron, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45] Non - Core Content (Not Included in Main Summary) - Team Introduction: The report introduces the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [48][49]

Core Insights - The zinc market on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is experiencing one of the most severe squeezes in decades, with traders scrambling to purchase increasingly scarce zinc inventories to fulfill contracts on the exchange [1] - The current spot zinc price has a premium of $323 per ton over the three-month contract, marking the highest price differential since 1997, indicating strong spot demand exceeding supply [1] - Zinc inventories in the LME's storage network have plummeted to near historical lows, with only 24,425 tons available for buyers, which is insufficient to meet even one day's demand in a global market of 14 million tons [1] Group 1 - The pressure from buyers has been mounting as several Western smelters have cut production due to collapsing processing profits [1] - Six institutions hold long positions in LME inventories and contracts expiring in the next two days, amounting to at least 300% of the immediately available inventory [1] Group 2 - The spot premium may lead to significant losses for sellers who do not hold physical metal, with the Tom/next zinc price spread rising to $30 per ton, the highest level since the historic squeeze in 2022 [4] - The LME's backwardation has not attracted substantial inventory inflows, as noted by a senior strategist at Marex [4] - Chinese smelters continue production, creating a significant price gap between LME zinc prices and those on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), with some Chinese companies planning to export zinc to exploit the arbitrage opportunity [4]

Market Background - Recent surge in silver prices, breaking above $50/ounce and maintaining high volatility, with significant short-term gains observed in the $50–$54 range [3] - Supply and delivery anomalies noted, with tight liquidity in London and New York, indicating severe backwardation and extremely high leasing rates, which have reportedly surged to historic levels of several tens of percentage points [3] - Physical squeeze observed, with banks and traders competing to transport physical silver bars, contributing to rapid price increases [3] - Macro drivers include a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts or monetary easing, and inflationary pressures boosting demand for precious metals [3] Pre-Entry Requirements - Verify liquidity and physical conditions by checking LBMA/COMEX inventories, recent leasing rates, and media reports on physical shortages or premiums [4] - Confirm investment goals and time frames, distinguishing between short-term trading (days to weeks) and medium-term holding (months) [4] - Select a compliant platform that offers simulation accounts and minimum lot sizes, such as WanZhou JinYe, and conduct practice trades [4] - Establish digital risk management rules, detailing maximum dollar risk per trade, total position limits, and event window rules [5] - Conduct small-scale real trading tests to assess platform execution capabilities and cost structures [5] Operational Steps - Open an account on a compliant platform like WanZhou JinYe, complete KYC, and activate a simulation account [6] - Download and familiarize with trading terminals, such as MT5, and practice executing various order types in the simulation account [7] - For small-scale real trading, deposit a minimal amount (e.g., $100-$200) and execute a few trades to evaluate spreads, slippage, and transaction speeds [8] - Define position building rules, including maximum exposure and phased entry strategies, with specific dollar risk parameters for each trade [9] - Implement dynamic position management, adjusting stop-loss orders as price targets are reached, and establish criteria for profit-taking and position reduction [10][11] Platform Selection - WanZhou JinYe is highlighted for its support of simulation accounts and micro lot sizes, allowing for strategy testing before real trading [12] - The platform offers an easy online account opening process and guidance for deposits and withdrawals, making it suitable for beginners [13] - Automated risk management features, such as limit orders and trailing stops, help execute predefined risk rules, minimizing emotional interference [14] Common Misconceptions - Avoid using all available funds to chase high prices and refrain from making large deposits before verifying platform spreads and slippage [15] - Caution against holding excessive positions before major events, as liquidity may rapidly contract, leading to amplified spreads and slippage [15] - Emphasize the importance of discipline in trading, with a focus on risk assessment, simulation practice, and structured entry and exit strategies [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for silver prices in the medium term, with expectations of further gains due to Fed cuts attracting inflows, although it highlights greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold [18][28]. Core Insights - The current silver market is experiencing unprecedented liquidity issues, with traders rushing to transport silver bars to London to capitalize on significant premiums [1][2]. - A recent surge in silver prices, which has increased by 35% since August 26, is attributed to heightened investment interest driven by concerns over rising debt levels and currency devaluation in the West [25][8]. - The dynamics of the silver market are influenced by a sudden spike in demand from India, coupled with a dwindling supply of available bars and fears of potential US tariffs [9][20]. Summary by Sections - **Liquidity Issues**: There is a severe lack of liquidity in the silver market, with bid-ask spreads widening significantly from typical levels [10][11]. The logistics of moving silver from US vaults to London are complicated and time-consuming, contributing to the current market stress [4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the silver market is less liquid and smaller than gold's, which amplifies price movements in response to investment flows [23][28]. The absence of a central bank bid for silver means that any pullback in investment could lead to disproportionate corrections [29][30]. - **Investment Trends**: The report highlights that silver and gold prices are typically correlated due to similar investment flows, but silver has lagged behind gold due to the lack of central bank support [21][22]. The recent increase in silver ETF demand has led to a drop in near-term availability and a spike in lease rates [26][25]. - **Future Outlook**: The report anticipates significant physical inflows from China and the US into the London market, which may help restore liquidity, although the path to normalization is expected to be bumpy [6][28].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights a narrowing spread between near-term and future WTI crude oil futures, indicating a potential oversupply in the market due to increased OPEC+ production and seasonal refinery maintenance in the U.S. [1][2] - As of Monday, the WTI crude oil futures for November settled at $59.49 per barrel, while the May 2026 contract was at $59.02, resulting in a 47-cent spot premium, the smallest since January 16 of the previous year [1] - OPEC+ has raised its oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day this year, which is approximately 2.5% of global demand, raising concerns about oversupply [1] Group 2 - The WTI crude oil curve is flattening as the market anticipates a less tight supply-demand balance in early 2026 [2] - U.S. refinery utilization rates have declined for four consecutive weeks, averaging 92.5%, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of June [2] - Increased physical inventories and reduced refinery output are leading to decreased demand for spot crude oil, thereby alleviating upward price pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of an impending oil surplus, global crude oil prices remain resilient, trading around $67 per barrel, contrary to forecasts suggesting a drop to $50 or lower [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), predict significant oil surpluses, with the IEA forecasting a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day by 2026 and the EIA estimating a surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of this year [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "spot premium," where immediate delivery oil is priced higher than future delivery, indicating market tightness rather than an imminent surplus [2]. Group 2: China's Role in the Oil Market - China is viewed as a stabilizing force in the oil market, actively purchasing crude oil, which traders interpret as a sign of increasing consumption rather than oversupply [2]. - The IEA projects that global oil consumption will rise by only 700,000 barrels per day next year, marking the slowest growth since 2009, excluding the pandemic period [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Market Reactions - OPEC+ has increased production quotas by 2.5 million barrels per day since April, but actual production increases are expected to be lower due to several member countries reaching maximum capacity [3]. - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ fails to meet production targets, the anticipated surplus may be smaller than predicted, potentially limiting downward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some analysts believe that the anticipated surplus may not significantly impact oil prices, as long as demand from China continues and OPEC+ maintains limited spare capacity [3][4]. - There is a sentiment that when too many traders align on a bearish outlook, it often does not materialize, indicating that unexpected factors could influence market dynamics [4].

Core Insights - The platinum market has tightened to unprecedented levels due to tariff fears and speculative buying, leading to a surge in prices and borrowing costs [2][3] - Spot platinum prices have increased nearly 60% this year, reaching new historical highs, while the one-month borrowing cost has soared to nearly 40% [2][3] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are characterized by extreme tightness, with the depth and breadth of spot premiums being more severe than at any time in the past 20 years [3] - The rising leasing rates are partly due to skepticism among platinum users regarding the sustainability of the price increase, as many participants have historically seen prices fluctuate between $950 and $1,100 per ounce [3] - Following the announcement of tariff exemptions in April, U.S. platinum inventories began to decline, but the unexpected imposition of a 50% tariff on copper has led to a resurgence in platinum premiums [3] Supply and Demand - The World Platinum Investment Council estimates that the supply deficit for platinum this year will approach 1 million ounces, further depleting already diminishing above-ground stocks [4]

Group 1 - The platinum market is experiencing unprecedented tightness due to tariff concerns and speculative buying, leading to significant flows of platinum from London and Zurich to U.S. and Chinese warehouses [1] - After a record increase last month, spot prices have reached new highs, with one-month implied borrowing costs for platinum hitting the highest level since data collection began in 2002 [1] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses earlier this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight price retreat, market tensions remain unresolved, with spot premium structures strengthening as buyers pay significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to future contracts [5] - The rise in leasing rates is partly attributed to industry users questioning the sustainability of the recent price surge, which has seen platinum prices soar nearly 60% year-to-date [7] - The World Platinum Investment Council anticipates a supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces this year, further depleting already limited ground inventories [7]

Group 1 - The global oil market is entering a new period of increased volatility due to unpredictable supply changes, misleading demand signals, geopolitical uncertainties, and deteriorating economic sentiment [1] - Recent abnormal fluctuations in diesel price spreads indicate that traders need a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the market [1] - The traditional indicators, such as the diesel price spread, are failing to accurately reflect mid-term demand due to extreme weather conditions in Europe and North America [1] Group 2 - The refining industry is facing a capacity crisis, with global refining margins remaining at historically high levels despite concerns over an economic recession [2] - A total of 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity in Europe is confirmed to be closing, including facilities in Grangemouth and several German refineries [2] - The impact of these closures has not yet fully reflected in current prices, indicating potential future price increases [2] Group 3 - The key observation point is whether the arbitrage trade from the Middle East and India to Europe will restart, serving as an early warning signal for regional supply tightness [3] - The phenomenon of "disappearing barrels" continues to perplex analysts, as the actual tightness in physical inventories far exceeds official supply-demand forecasts [3] - If U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela lead to further reductions in crude oil exports, it could trigger significant market disruptions this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August reflects Saudi Arabia's confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decision - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August [1] - This increase is interpreted as a sign of confidence in market demand from Saudi Arabia [1] - The decision indicates that Saudi Arabia does not aim to lower prices or capture market share through increased production [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of crude oil for August to Asian markets [1] - The current market conditions show that both WTI and Brent crude oil are trading at a premium, indicating tight supply [1] - The overall market sentiment suggests that Saudi Arabia believes the market remains tight despite the increase in production [1]