白银此番涨势，用"脱缰野马"形容毫不为过。年初时伦敦银价尚在30.1美元/盎司徘徊，到12月中旬已飙升至66美元以上，年末更触及71.87美元/盎司的历史 峰值，年内涨幅远超黄金的64%左右。这种爆发力背后，是多重逻辑的共振。从供需基本面看，全球白银市场正面临严峻的结构性缺口，2025年供需缺口预 计达9500万盎司，且未来三年缺口将持续放大至6791吨。供应端刚性约束明显，墨西哥、秘鲁等主产国产量增长乏力，矿产供应年复合增速仅1.2%，而回 收供应增长近乎停滞，全球主要交易所库存跌至十年低位。需求端则迎来工业属性的爆发式增长，光伏产业用银量较2022年翻番，N型电池普及进一步提升 单GW耗银量，叠加AI算力服务器、新能源汽车等新兴领域的需求增量，白银工业需求占比已升至58.5%，成为价格主导力量。 白银涨到可怕 有人一觉醒来赚18万，忽略了黄金，白银又错过了，现在金银真的是硬通货！ 2025年岁末的贵金属市场，正上演一场前所未有的狂欢。当伦敦现货银价冲破71美元/盎司、沪银期货主力合约站上15477元/千克高位时，市场彻底沸腾 ——有人因重仓白银期货，一夜之间浮盈18万元，也有人在"先错过黄金、再踏空白银" ...

当前，"少喝酒、喝好酒"已逐渐从消费倡议走向普遍实践，推动白酒消费实现从"重数量"到"重品质"的结构性转变。在这一趋势下，拥有深厚品牌积淀与 鲜明社交价值的高端消费品，持续表现出跨越周期的强劲韧性。茅台，正是这一群体的典型代表。 岁末年初，白酒行业暗流涌动，价格博弈日趋激烈，供需格局也在悄然重构。在这多重变量交织的关键时期，贵州茅台（600519.SH）再度成为市场瞩目 的焦点与支撑行业信心的中流砥柱。 尽管白酒行业仍处于深度调整阶段，但茅台凭借其公认的"硬通货"属性，在复杂经济环境中展现出突出的抗风险能力，成为整体消费市场中不可或缺 的"压舱石"。市场数据显示，近期飞天茅台批价在全国范围内普遍上涨超百元，并带动终端销售持续活跃。 茅台对主业的长期专注、对品质的始终敬畏，以及对价值的持续坚守，共同构成了其"以不变应万变"的战略内核。这份定力，不仅是其平稳穿越行业起伏 的关键依托，更是其在多变的经济形势下稳健前行、赢得长远发展的根本支撑。 "压舱石"价值凸显 2025年末，一股消费暖流悄然涌动，首先在白酒行业的温度计——飞天茅台身上得到显现。 作为洞察行业冷暖的核心指标，飞天茅台自2025年12月中旬以来流通速 ...

茅台凭借其"硬通货"的属性，成为消费市场凝聚信心的关 键"压舱石"。 作者：曹坤/文 封图：图片资料室 茅台对主业的长期专注、对品质的始终敬畏，以及对价值的持续坚守，共同构成了其"以不变应万 变"的战略内核。这份定力，不仅是其平稳穿越行业起伏的关键依托，更是其在多变的经济形势下 稳健前行、赢得长远发展的根本支撑。 "压舱石"价值凸显 2025年末，一股消费暖流悄然涌动，首先在白酒行业的温度计——飞天茅台身上得到显现。 作为洞察行业冷暖的核心指标，飞天茅台自2025年12月中旬以来流通速度显著提升。华东地区某 大型酒行负责人表示，近期终端对500ml飞天茅台的咨询量与实际提货频次同步增加，"市场活跃 度正持续升温"。 价格走势进一步印证了其市场韧性。12月25日，新浪财经"酒价内参"数据显示，53度500ml飞天 茅台成交价已企稳攀升至1825元；同期，贵州茅台酒（精品）单日上涨53元，报2366元/瓶。市 场调研还显示，近期飞天茅台全国批发价在两日内涨幅超过百元，陈年茅台15单日大涨450元， 其他非标产品也均有不小涨幅，渠道动销表现强劲。 在当前的消费环境中，拥有深厚品牌积淀与鲜明社交属性的高端消费品，正展 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：MZ的投资随笔， 原发时间：2025年11月27日 中日10年期国债收益率倒挂，暗示中国经济可能"日本化"，面临通缩压力。投资者应转向"防守与套利"策略，配置高股息资产、全球多元化资产、硬通 货，避免高风险投资，确保本金安全并跑赢通胀。 解析:这是一个具有历史意义的宏观时刻。中日长 期利率（10年期国债收益率）的倒挂，不仅仅是数 字的交叉，更象征着两个经济体处于完全不同的周 期阶段。 这也验证了市场对中国经济"日本化"(长期资产负 债表衰退、低通胀、低利率）的担忧正在加剧，而 日本正在走出这一阶段。这对普通投资者和家庭资 产配置意味着传统的"高增长预期"逻辑必须彻底转 变为"防守与套利"逻辑。以下是具体的深度分析与 配置建议: 一、 这一信号的核心宏观含义 第一， 宏观周期的错位。 ①中国（衰退/复苏早期）： 面临通缩压力，央行 必须维持低利率(甚至更低)来刺激借贷和消费。 长期国债收益率低,说明资金不看好长期经济的高 增长，更愿意锁定低收益的安全资产。 ② 日本（复苏/过热早期）: 终于走出通缩,工资 上涨，央行开始货币正常化, ...

在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，资产保值成为越来越多人的关注焦点。与其被动忍受货币贬值，不如主动出击，寻求能够抵御通胀的"硬通货"。最近，我 一位在银行工作的老同学跟我聊起，越来越多的人向他咨询如何应对手中的钱不断贬值的问题。这不仅仅是个理财问题，更深层次地反映了人们对于通胀的 切身感受和对未来经济形势的担忧。 那么，什么是通胀？它又为何会发生？简单来说，通胀就是物价普遍上涨，货币购买力下降的现象。近年来，全球范围内出现了较为明显的通胀趋势。从 2021年开始，无论是美联储还是欧洲央行，都面临着巨大的通胀压力。虽然中国的情况相对稳定，但也难以完全置身事外。导致通胀的原因是多方面的：疫 情期间各国纷纷采取宽松的货币政策，增加了市场上的货币供应量；全球供应链受阻，导致商品短缺；能源价格的波动也推高了生产成本。尽管近期通胀有 所缓和，但潜在的风险依然存在，我们仍需对此做好准备。 面对通胀，最不明智的做法莫过于持有大量现金。因为现金的购买力会随着通胀而不断下降。明智之举是将资金配置到具有抗通胀属性的资产上，也就是所 谓的"硬通货"。以下三种资产，在通胀环境下往往能更好地保值增值。 首先是优质的股权资产，尤其是那些身处" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that gold is not merely a speculative asset but a "hard currency relic" that has maintained its value over millennia, especially in times of economic turmoil and currency devaluation [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold as Currency - Gold has historically served as the ultimate backup currency, contrasting with fiat currencies that lack intrinsic value and are subject to government manipulation [5][6]. - The article outlines two types of currencies: those backed by tangible assets like gold and those that are fiat, which can be printed without limit, leading to potential economic collapse [6][7]. - Historical events, such as the abandonment of the gold standard by the U.S. in 1933 and 1971, illustrate how fiat currencies can lead to inflation and a surge in gold prices during crises [9]. Group 2: Gold's Protective Qualities - Gold provides two key protective features: it is resistant to devaluation and confiscation, making it a safe haven during economic instability [10][12]. - The article highlights that fiat currencies can lose value rapidly due to excessive printing, while gold's supply is limited and not subject to government control [10]. - In times of crisis, gold often appreciates as other assets decline, serving as a stabilizing force in an investment portfolio [12]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Gold should be viewed as a risk management tool rather than a profit-generating asset, with a recommended allocation of 5% to 15% in investment portfolios [13][15]. - The article advises against treating gold as a speculative investment, emphasizing its role as a "lifebuoy" during economic downturns [13][15]. - In extreme scenarios, such as a collapse of the currency system or geopolitical conflicts, increasing gold holdings may be warranted [15]. Group 4: Conclusion on Gold's Role - Gold is characterized as a "mirror" reflecting the state of currency, with its value tied to the broader economic environment rather than short-term price fluctuations [16][17]. - The article concludes that while gold may not lead to overnight wealth, it is essential for safeguarding family assets against unforeseen risks in a volatile monetary landscape [17].

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices has led to increased interest and investment, with many brands raising the prices of investment gold bars and some banks running out of stock [1] - Over the past 40 years, gold has increased from 22.4 yuan per gram in 1985 to approximately 920 yuan per gram now, representing a growth of about 41 times [1] - In contrast, the price of Moutai, a premium liquor, has skyrocketed from 8.5 yuan per bottle in 1985 to around 40,000 yuan in the current market, translating to an increase of over 3,000 times [1] Group 2 - Moutai's unique consumption and spiritual attributes, along with its scarcity and consumable nature, have transformed it from a regular liquor into a form of "hard currency" [2] - The distinction between Moutai and gold is highlighted by the fact that Moutai is considered a traditional luxury item, with its limited availability making it highly sought after [2]

Core Viewpoint - The seizure of $15 billion in Bitcoin held by the Prince Group of Cambodia by the United States is viewed as a fraudulent act, undermining the essence of cryptocurrency as an unregulated asset [1] Group 1: Cryptocurrency Regulation and Seizure - The U.S. government's action to confiscate cryptocurrency is perceived as a warning against investing in digital currencies, suggesting that any money under U.S. control is at risk of being seized [1] - The global understanding that cryptocurrencies can be confiscated by the U.S. has led to a belief that investors are being exploited [5] - China's early legislation against Bitcoin is highlighted as a sign of foresight, indicating that the country recognized the potential for exploitation by the U.S. [5] Group 2: Value of Hard Assets - In times of crisis, such as war or economic instability, traditional hard assets like cash, gold, food, and water are deemed more valuable than cryptocurrencies [3] - The commentary suggests that the wealthy may feel anxious about the U.S. seizing assets abroad, leading to potential domestic confiscation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in global monetary reserves, with gold's share rising to 30% and the dollar's share declining from 43% to 40%, indicating a profound transformation in the global monetary system [2] - The World Gold Council projects that global central banks will purchase a net total of 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, with emerging markets accounting for over 70% of this demand, as these countries seek to create a "safety cushion" for their currencies [2] - The average global inflation rate exceeded 6% in the first half of 2025, while the spot price of gold in London rose by 22% year-on-year, reinforcing gold's role as an inflation hedge [4] Group 2 - The increase in gold reserves is intertwined with a surge in demand for gold mining jobs in Africa, with a 120% year-on-year increase in recruitment for gold-related positions, driven by rising gold prices and favorable conditions for Chinese workers [6] - The challenges faced by Chinese miners in Africa, including health risks and legal uncertainties, highlight the complexities of the gold rush, where individuals are navigating a landscape shaped by global economic changes [6][8] - The articles suggest that the key to addressing the challenges of illegal mining and ensuring sustainable cooperation between China and Africa lies in establishing regulated cross-border mining partnerships and improving labor protections for overseas workers [8][9]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a collective decline, with major European indices opening sharply lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.4%, the UK FTSE 100 index dropped over 1.5%, and both the German DAX and Italian FTSE MIB indices saw declines of around 2% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index was reported at 9293.43, down by 142.66 points or 1.51%. The French CAC 40 index decreased by 97.61 points or 1.19%, while the German DAX fell by 498.45 points or 2.05%. The Italian FTSE MIB dropped by 860.34 points or 2.03% [2] Sector Performance - Financial stocks were notably affected, with Citigroup's Frankfurt shares declining over 5% due to market concerns regarding regional banks in the US [2] - In the US pre-market, major tech stocks also faced declines, with Microsoft down 0.9%, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Google A each falling by 1%, and Tesla and Nvidia dropping by 2%. Oracle's shares fell by over 3% [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below $101,000, experiencing a nearly 5% drop in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum declined by over 2% [3] Gold Market - International gold prices continued to reach new highs, with spot gold trading above $4,350 per ounce [5] - Gold has become the first global asset to surpass a total market capitalization of $30 trillion, reflecting its long-term appeal as a safe-haven asset amid current inflation and geopolitical risks. The total amount of mined gold is approximately 216,265 tons, equating to about 6.9 billion ounces [7]