智通财经APP获悉，有色股持续走低，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772)跌10.44%，报45.72港元；中国有色 矿业(01258)跌9.72%，报14.77港元；山东黄金(01787)跌7.18%，报39.04港元；洛阳钼业(03993)跌 6.66%，报16.4港元；江西铜业股份(00358)跌4.36%，报36.42港元。 中信期货认为，中短期来看，供应扰动问题持续发酵和股期联动炒作引发部分品种脉冲上涨，铜价领涨 基本金属，但若无进一步的宏观利多，基本金属快速冲高后仍需谨防回落风险，长期来看，国内潜在增 量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这将进一步推高基本金属价 格。 消息面上，美元指数连日来持续反弹，并突破99大关。浙商证券指出，国庆节期间美元指数反弹的逻辑 类似黄金，主要源于美国政府关门带来的阶段性避险偏好。展望未来，美元指数反弹的逻辑仍然源于当 前市场对于美国的衰退预期可能被纠偏。此外，由于中东地缘冲突缓和叠加美元指数周四显著上涨，国 际金价高位跳水，截至发稿，现货黄金失守3960美元/盎司。 ...

11:27 黄金ETF持仓报告 1.020 1.010 1,000 990 980 970 960 950 2025-08-19 2025-09-04 2025-09-24 2025 -- EBC黄金ETF持分报告解读 截至10月9日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1013.44吨，较前一个交易日减少1.14吨。10月9日，现货黄金遭遇抛售，自4060美元/盎司历史 高位附近最多跌去超100美元，盘中最低触及3945.03美元/盎司，收于3976.05美元/盎司，跌65.40美元/1.62%，为五个交易日以来首次下跌。 基本面消息，10月9日，金价亚市盘初一度杀跌，最低来到4000美元关口附近，不过随后出现一波鸱鸺拉升，并在美市早盘升至4057美元附近的日内高位， 随后遭遇了大幅抛售，大跌超过100美元。 分析人士认为，地缘政治紧张局势缓和，再加上获利了结情绪升温，以及美元指数的反弹，共同引发了金价的调整。与此同时，白银在触及51美元的数十年 高位之后，也出现了调整。 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1013.44 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led some investors to take profits, resulting in downward pressure on gold prices, with December gold futures closing at $3678.3 per ounce, a decline of 1.06% [2] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline due to geopolitical conflicts and weak U.S. crude oil demand, despite the potential economic stimulation from the Fed's rate cut [2] - Light crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $63.57 per barrel, down 0.75%, while November Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.44 per barrel, also down 0.75% [3]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The dollar index experienced a significant decline of over 10% in the first half of the year due to a series of unpredictable policies from the Trump administration, but rebounded in July with a monthly increase of over 3% [2][3] - Positive economic data in July, including a robust labor market, stable inflation, and a 3% increase in Q2 GDP, contributed to the dollar's rebound despite the actual economic situation being less optimistic [3] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, as indicated by Powell's refusal to yield to pressure for rate cuts, has led to a decrease in market expectations for future rate cuts [4] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Fiscal Impact - The U.S. tariff revenue surged to $16 billion in April, marking a 130% year-on-year increase, with subsequent months also showing record high revenues [6] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the overall fiscal improvement in June was primarily due to a reduction in expenditures rather than increased revenue, highlighting the limitations of tariff policies [7] - The trade deficit did not show substantial improvement, as the reduction in imports was not due to a manufacturing rebound but rather a decrease in consumer and business demand [7][8] Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The release of disappointing non-farm payroll data in August, with only 73,000 new jobs added, raised concerns about the labor market and led to speculation about potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The accuracy of the non-farm payroll data has been questioned due to a significant drop in survey response rates, which may have contributed to frequent revisions of employment figures [9][10] - The outlook for the dollar index suggests continued volatility below the 100 mark, with potential support from large-scale fiscal stimulus measures planned by the Trump administration [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the US-EU trade agreement, the rebound of the US dollar, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 774.32 RMB per gram, up by 0.49% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3384.9 USD per ounce, increasing by 0.11% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The US-EU trade agreement reached on July 27, where the EU will increase purchases of over 1.3 trillion USD of US products, alleviates global trade war concerns, boosting market risk appetite and stock markets, but may suppress gold prices [2]. - The rebound of the US dollar index, supported by strong US economic data, has pressured gold prices as it increases the cost of gold for non-US currency holders [3]. - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance have reduced the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, leading to weaker buying interest [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices may continue to fluctuate due to mixed factors, with potential downward pressure if trade tensions ease, the dollar strengthens, or the Fed maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Long-term factors such as global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demand may still drive gold prices higher, necessitating close monitoring of key developments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index is attributed to higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has led to a mixed performance of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, with the yuan's middle rate reaching a low of 7.1461, while the spot trading price has shown a depreciation trend [1][5][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has seen a continuous rise, with a cumulative increase of over 2% as of July 17, marking the longest upward trend this year [1]. - The US June CPI data exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.9%, which is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased, with current market pricing showing only a 53.5% chance of a cut, down from 59.3% [5]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown signs of weakness against the dollar, with a depreciation of over 200 points in recent days, despite the middle rate signaling stability [1][10]. - The yuan's middle rate has deviated from model predictions by nearly -240 points, indicating a potential adjustment to strengthen the yuan [10]. - The future exchange rate of USD/CNY is expected to follow the dollar index's movements, but the depreciation of the yuan may be less pronounced, with estimates suggesting a 1:5 ratio of dollar index strength to yuan depreciation [11]. Group 3: Tariff Effects and Inflation - The impact of tariffs is beginning to show, with significant price increases in home goods and appliances, which are key categories affected by tariffs [6][7]. - There is a concern that as inventory levels deplete, inflation may rise due to the need for businesses to restock, potentially leading to cost pass-through to consumers [8]. - Labor shortages in key industries due to immigration policies may also contribute to upward wage pressures, further influencing inflation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential for increased actions from the Trump administration as tariff revenues rise [12]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of the US fiscal policy, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus may outweigh its economic benefits [13]. - The forecast for US 10-year Treasury yields is projected to reach 4.9% in Q4, influenced by ongoing budget deficits and market volatility [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in July despite pressure from President Trump, as recent inflation data does not support a rate cut [2][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% [2]. - The core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, which is below the expected 0.3% [6]. Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.6% [4]. - President Trump has called for an immediate reduction of the federal funds rate by 300 basis points, arguing that inflation is very low [5]. - The recent CPI data has accelerated the rebound of the US dollar index, with an initial target for this rebound expected to test the 99.50-100 range [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, currently at $3284.47 per ounce, with a decline of 0.51% [1] - The recent rebound of the US dollar index is limiting the bullish momentum for gold, as the market is under strong resistance [1] - The extension of the tariff agreement by Trump until August 1 has provided temporary relief to the market, but the long-term macro pressures on the dollar remain significant, including rising public debt and deficit concerns [2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as a dovish tone could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently fluctuating, with key support at $3280 and resistance around $3335; a break below $3297 could lead to further declines [4] - If geopolitical risks escalate or negotiations fail, the dollar's support may be short-lived, leading to a renewed focus on gold [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September interest rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump plans to send letters to multiple countries to clarify new tariff rates, and with the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again. Both macro and fundamental factors led to the decline of Shanghai zinc futures. However, there are signs of a halt in the hourly line, and the 22,000 yuan integer mark of Shanghai zinc provides strong support [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,135 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,140 yuan/ton, a low of 21,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 115 yuan, a decline rate of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 890 to 3,150. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,070 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,115 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, a decline of 135 yuan, a decline rate of 0.61%, and the position decreased by 7,658 to 118,874. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 22,025 yuan/ton, closed at 21,960 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,050 yuan/ton, a low of 21,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 155 yuan, a decline rate of 0.70%, and the position decreased by 1,465 to 87,420 [7] - **Market Performance**: On July 9, most non - ferrous metals closed lower. SHFE zinc opened lower in the morning, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed. The main contract closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan or 0.61%, with reduced volume and positions. LME zinc inventories accelerated to below 110,000 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C22.05, and the import profit and loss was - 889.14 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's operating rate was high due to good smelter profits, and the zinc ingot supply still increased. The consumption side entered the off - season and gradually weakened, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was gradually emerging, with social inventories increasing by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons on Monday [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 8, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,025 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,045 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 21,955 - 22,185 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 170 - 180 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 160 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 180 - 220 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market was around 21,965 - 22,165 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Qilin quoted a delivered premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and Honglu - v zinc ingots quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 21,890 - 22,110 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 21,920 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,740 - 21,960 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 25,400 yuan/ton. 0 ordinary zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,865 - 22,075 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained stable. In the first period, holders quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Anning, and Lanxing quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton over the net price [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and SMM, and related charts like the two - market zinc price trend, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][16]