新加坡国有投资机构淡马锡控股的首席执行官表示，该公司今年"被迫对冲"美元风险，并称美元疲软对 海外投资者而言是一个重大问题。 淡马锡首席执行官Dilhan Pillay在周三表示："对冲成本现在已经上升，因为我发现每个人都在进行对 冲。目前的情况是，我的对冲成本变得过高，以至于我不得不考虑采用自然对冲。" Dilhan称，这意味着淡马锡必须寻找能够产生足够高净预期回报的投资，以匹配其承担的风险。他表 示："部分以美元计价的资产无法为我提供合理的净回报，以证明我将资金配置到那里的合理性。" 媒体美元即期指数今年已下跌近7%，而美元对新加坡元汇率也贬值约5%。这一跌势侵蚀了非美元基础 投资者的回报，尽管美国仍然是许多大型机构和资产管理公司的首要投资目的地。 以新元计算投资回报的淡马锡，近年来持续增加对美国的投资配置。截至3月底，美洲地区占其4340亿 新元(约合3330亿美元)投资组合的近四分之一。该公司于2024年7月承诺，将在未来五年内向美国投资 300亿美元。 这家国有企业在上一财年实现了11.8%的一年期股东总回报率，其十年期回报率为5%。 Dilhan表示，尽管如此，美国例外主义目前看来并未受到威胁，并 ...

Core Insights - Gold spot prices have remained near the $4,000/oz level after experiencing early-week volatility and a brief dip below support [3][4][6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has contributed to investor caution, leading to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar towards the end of the week [5][6] - A significant decline in consumer sentiment, reaching one of the lowest levels in history, indicates that fear and uncertainty may continue to support gold prices as November approaches [5][6] Market Dynamics - Early in the week, gold prices tested a support boundary but traded relatively flat, with a slight increase of $10–$20/oz, indicating institutional interest [3] - A notable sell-off occurred on Tuesday, with prices dropping sharply to $3,930/oz, reflecting market reactions to perceived overvaluation [4] - Midweek, bargain hunters drove prices back up to $3,985/oz, aided by a softening U.S. Dollar and concerns over the prolonged government shutdown [5] Investor Sentiment - The combination of a bleak consumer sentiment survey and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown suggests that gold may remain an attractive asset for investors [5][6] - Despite a late-week rebound in gold prices, traders are cautious about potential downside risks if news regarding the resolution of the government shutdown emerges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the psychological significance of the $4000 price level for gold, highlighting the dynamics between buyers and market sentiment [1][5][13]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially surged to historical highs but then experienced a sudden decline in late October, prompting buyers to enter the market as prices dropped to new lows [1][3]. - The international gold price briefly rebounded to around $4009 per ounce, with the $4000 mark becoming a critical psychological barrier that could trigger stop-loss orders or panic selling if breached [3][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - On October 29, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second cut since September and the fifth since September 2024 [5][10]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was influenced by slowing economic growth and high inflation, aiming to stabilize the economy amid incomplete data due to a potential government shutdown [5][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The interest rate cut typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased buying interest, particularly among retail investors and physical buyers [6][11]. - Despite the buying momentum, there are concerns about a potential short-term correction, with analysts suggesting support levels at $3850 and even $3690, creating a tense market atmosphere [6][11]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - Many ordinary buyers view the current market as an opportunity to purchase gold and jewelry without chasing extreme highs, contributing to market stabilization [8][11]. - The weakening dollar and expectations of further rate cuts have made gold more attractive, resulting in increased trading activity [8][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If gold prices can hold above the $4000 level, market sentiment may turn optimistic, encouraging further investments in physical gold or futures [11][13]. - Conversely, if prices fall below this threshold, concentrated stop-loss orders could trigger significant selling, leading to increased volatility and potential price corrections [11][13].

印度储备银行（RBI，即印度央行）在其半年外汇储备报告中表示，已大幅增加其在国内的 黄金储备比例，在本财年上半年（4月至9月）期间，已将约64吨黄金运回国内。 印度一直在逐步将黄金转移回国。去年10月，印度央行从英国央行和国际清算银行（BIS）转移了102 吨黄金。报道称，俄乌冲突后俄罗斯外汇储备被西方冻结，是导致印度将黄金储备带回国的一大原因。 有报道称，自2023年3月以来，印度已经将274吨黄金运回国内。 印度投资公司"松树宏"创始人里特什·贾恩表示："在这个时代，如果你没有黄金的保管权，它就不能算 是真正属于你的"。 受美国特朗普政府加征关税的不确定性影响，今年以来，美元兑所有主要货币均出现疲软。对冲基 金"城堡"创始人肯·格林芬指出，投资者越来越认为黄金比美元更安全，而美元长期以来一直被视为全 球储备资产。 ▲印度储备银行 资料图 根据RBI的数据，截至9月底，印度储备银行（RBI）的黄金总持有量为880.18吨，其中575.82吨存放在 印度境内。剩余部分中，290.37吨存放在英格兰银行（BoE）和国际清算银行（BIS），另有13.99吨以 黄金存款的形式持有。据报道，目前印度国内存放的黄金储备 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold has regained its status as a preferred safe-haven asset amid rising global economic uncertainty, with prices surpassing $4000, reflecting strong market demand for safety [1][2] - Multiple factors are driving the rise in gold prices, including increased global economic risks, a weakening dollar, and heightened inflation expectations [1] - The recent meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has generated optimism in the market, particularly regarding trade discussions and potential tariff reductions, which could positively impact global economic activity [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term optimism from trade discussions, gold prices remain strong, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainty and the interplay of loose monetary policies and geopolitical risks [2] - The current market sentiment indicates that gold may experience fluctuations at high levels, with a solid support base as long as risk appetite does not significantly improve [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor Federal Reserve policy developments and the progress of U.S.-China negotiations, as these factors could influence gold price movements [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that KKR is shifting its investment focus towards Asia due to the weakening momentum of the US dollar and the ongoing fundamental advantages in Asian markets [1] Group 2 - Compared to over 20% alternative asset allocation in mature markets like Europe and the US, most Asian institutions have less than 10%, indicating significant room for growth [3] - The substantial household savings in Asia, particularly Japan's $14 trillion in household wealth, with half still held in cash, presents a capital source for investment as savers seek higher asset returns [3] - KKR's capital deployment speed in Japan has reached five times that of ten years ago, making Japan KKR's most active investment destination outside the US, accounting for 40% of its Asia-Pacific assets [3] Group 3 - India is identified as KKR's second-largest market in Asia, with a young population over 60% driving consumption potential and increased foreign investment in manufacturing due to global supply chain adjustments [4] - KKR is focusing on investments in India's toll roads, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure, with expectations to invest over $5 billion in these sectors over the next three years [4] - Despite a decline in China's share of private equity transactions in the Asia-Pacific region from over 50% in 2020 to 27% by 2024, KKR remains focused on the Chinese market, particularly in domestic consumption and value-added services [4]

Group 1 - KKR's co-CEO Joseph Bae indicated that global investors are gradually reallocating funds towards Asia as the dollar weakens and Asian fundamentals strengthen [1][2] - The firm is significantly increasing its investments in Japan, which has become KKR's largest Asian market, accounting for 40% of its regional assets [1] - Japan's household wealth, totaling $14 trillion, presents substantial opportunities as half of it remains in cash, with a shift towards new asset classes expected [1] Group 2 - KKR is also increasing its investments in India, which is its second-largest Asian market, focusing on sectors like toll roads, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure [2] - Despite Asia being a major beneficiary of global diversification, North American investors remain cautious about China, with its share of Asia-Pacific deal volume dropping from over 50% in 2020 to just 27% by 2024 [2] - KKR continues to focus on domestic consumption and value-added services in China, which remain investment hotspots despite the cautious sentiment [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a record high, closing at $4,326 per troy ounce, with futures trading above $4,344 before a slight decline [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to economic uncertainty, including a prolonged government shutdown and ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China [2][4] - Gold futures have increased nearly 60% since the beginning of 2025, while silver futures have risen about 70% in the same period [3] Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data and affected federal employees, contributing to investor anxiety [5] - President Trump's trade wars have imposed steep tariffs, straining businesses and consumers, leading to higher costs and a weakened job market [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have made gold a more attractive investment option [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a record-breaking surge, with prices surpassing $4,000 an ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date gain of 52%, potentially leading to its best year since 1979 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and a weaker US dollar are key factors driving the gold rally [2][9]. - Central bank purchases and strong inflows into gold ETFs are expected to continue supporting gold prices [4][5]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for gold to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, anticipating a 20% increase through the end of next year [3]. - HSBC predicts gold prices could range from $3,600 to $4,400 next year, suggesting an 8% potential increase from current levels [6][7]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Analysts caution that the rally may lose momentum in 2026 due to increased supply and reduced physical demand, alongside potential downward pressure from a strengthening US dollar [8].

Economic Outlook - The ADP report is anticipated to be a significant market mover as the Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, with investors closely monitoring economic and job data [1] - There is an expectation of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with speculation about timing and market reactions [2] Sector Analysis - Investors are shifting towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and staples, as well as exploring options markets for downside protection [2] - Technology, AI, and healthcare sectors are expected to remain resilient amid potential government shutdowns, with the dollar absorbing market shocks [3] Global Investment Opportunities - There are emerging opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in China’s tech sector and potential political changes in Japan that could benefit investors [4] - The dollar has declined significantly year-to-date, impacting U.S. markets, but may lead to renewed interest in international markets, especially in Brazil and emerging markets [5][7] Commodity Trends - Commodities like platinum and copper are showing upward trends, with emerging markets likely to benefit from higher commodity prices [8][9] - There is potential stabilization in China, along with government stimulus that could positively influence commodity markets [10]