整体来看，理财机构对全球配置理财的布局热情呈现明显升温趋势。Wind数据显示，2025年12月至 2026年1月8日，10余家银行及理财公司发行近50只全球配置主题的理财产品，且挂钩资产包括美元、日 元、欧元、港币等，配置偏好更加多元化。 业内人士分析指出，当前低利率环境下，单一市场收益难以满足投资者的回报预期，理财机构越来越倾 向通过全球资产的配置以增厚收益、分散风险。整体来看，美元资产仍是当前全球配置的主角，但新兴 市场权益资产、黄金等多元资产的配置也在持续升温。 来源：中经财富 2026年开年以来，宁银理财、中银理财、中邮理财等多家理财公司纷纷上线全球配置主题的新发理财产 品，多为纯债固收及"固收+"的固收类产品，风险评级为R1、R2等级。 普益标准监测数据显示，2025年全年全球配置理财产品新发数量为624款；2025年11月1日—2026年1月6 日新发数量为87款。 从期限结构和运作模式来看，华宝证券创新研究部指出，当前全球配置主题理财的产品期限主要集中在 6个月到3年之间，多采用封闭式或设定最短持有期的运作模式，既适配跨境资产的长期配置属性，又兼 顾资金灵活度。 全球配置理财"上新"加速 从业绩 ...

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 2026年开年以来，宁银理财、中银理财、中邮理财等多家理财公司纷纷上线全球配置主题的新发理财产 品，多为纯债固收及"固收+"的固收类产品，风险评级为R1、R2等级。 整体来看，理财机构对全球配置理财的布局热情呈现明显升温趋势。Wind数据显示，2025年12月至 2026年1月8日，10余家银行及理财公司发行近50只全球配置主题的理财产品，且挂钩资产包括美元、日 元、欧元、港币等，配置偏好更加多元化。 业内人士分析指出，当前低利率环境下，单一市场收益难以满足投资者的回报预期，理财机构越来越倾 向通过全球资产的配置以增厚收益、分散风险。整体来看，美元资产仍是当前全球配置的主角，但新兴 市场权益资产、黄金等多元资产的配置也在持续升温。 全球配置理财"上新"加速 普益标准监测数据显示，2025年全年全球配置理财产品新发数量为624款；2025年11月1日—2026年1月6 日新发数量为87款。 从期限结构和运作模式来看，华宝证券创新研究部指出，当前全球配置主题理财的产品期限主要集中在 6个月到3年之间，多采用封闭式或设定最短持有期的运作模式，既适配跨境资产的长期配置属性，又兼 顾资金灵活 ...

外汇月报 | 2026-01-04 人民币破7，是阶段反弹还是趋势变化 核心观点 市场分析 12月中美经济分化进一步显现。美国方面，劳动力市场继续降温，11 月失业率已回升至 4.6%，非农新增就业较 年中明显放缓；同时政府停摆与关税政策带来的成本与信心冲击开始传导至企业部门，美股年末明显回调，其中 IT 与公用事业板块自高位回撤，反映市场正在对美国增长前景重新定价。中国方面，经济运行整体保持稳定，12 月 制造业景气度小幅回升，科技板块表现强势，A 股风险偏好改善，人民币汇率与资产价格形成正向共振。从企业 行为看，人民币进入升值阶段后，出口企业对汇率波动的容忍度提高，结汇决策更趋前置，叠加年末资金管理需 求上升，使外汇供给在时间维度上更集中，直接强化即期市场的美元供给弹性。 美元资产吸引力持续弱化。利率环境方面，美国短端利率中枢持续下移，市场已将 2026 年更快的降息路径纳入定 价，而财政扩张与美债供给压力限制了长端收益率下行空间，使美债收益率曲线呈现"短端回落、长端钝化"的结 构特征，中国利率体系则保持相对稳定。美元资产的风险回报比因此出现系统性下修。中美利差收敛的同时，跨 境资金在债券、股权及贸易项下 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.59% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.06% [1][11] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity futures, with coking coal futures down by 0.76% and iron ore futures up by 2.00% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.36% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is equities > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a positive outlook on A-shares and stable bond yields [2][4] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is weakening, prompting international capital to seek alternatives, with RMB assets being a top choice due to their stability and growth potential [2][4] - The report anticipates that commodity prices will be influenced by supply pressures in oil and demand dynamics in cyclical goods, while agricultural products will be affected by supply factors [2][4] Key Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, returning to the expansion zone [18] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress will convene on March 4, 2026, which may influence economic policies [18][19] Market Performance Insights - The report details a significant decline in the real estate market, with a notable drop in transaction volumes for new homes in major cities, indicating potential market stabilization due to recent policy changes [36][41] - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showing negative growth for four consecutive weeks [36][41] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds has risen to 1.85%, with a noted increase in the yield of ten-year policy bank bonds to 2.00% [46] - The report highlights a significant rise in yields for low-rated credit bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment [46]

那个总被看作美国"铁杆小弟"的加拿大，竟然在2025年10月单月狂抛了567亿美元的美债，动作比中国的118亿美元减持还要快准狠。 这可不是普通的调 仓，是一场静悄悄上演的"盟友背刺"，直接把美债市场搅得天翻地覆。 与此同时，美国自己的后院也起了火。 国债总额像坐火箭一样冲上了37万亿美元，每过五个月就能新增1万亿，这速度打破了历史记录。 更让华盛顿头疼的 是，国债的"信用底座"开始松动了。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特不得不公开承认，政府支付账单的能力存在"相当大的不确定性"，只能靠特别措施勉强支 撑到6月27日。 特朗普政府2025年7月签署的《"大而美"法案》，被很多人视为在火堆上又浇了一桶油。 美国国会预算办公室估计，该法案将在未来十年增加约3.4万亿美元 的财政赤字。 法案通过后，美国30年期国债收益率应声升至5.1%，这表明市场对美国的偿债能力更加担忧了。 利息支出已经成为美国财政一笔沉重的负担。 美国财政部年利息支出已超过万亿美元。 如果债务规模继续扩张，到2030年前，利息成本每年可能再增加千 亿甚至万亿美元。 这笔钱本可以用于教育、医疗、基建等民生领域，现在却只能去填债务的窟窿。 深层次的问题 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略周报 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《美国降息周期中的"第四种"交易模式——策略 专题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-08-14 《美元寻锚之路：去杠杆，减敞口，再平衡*胡国 鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-06-22 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、美国货币政策展望；2、日本货币政 策展望；3、海外流动性变化对美元资产、人民币资产和港股的影响。 核心结论: 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 | 1、 | 美国货币政策展望 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1、 | 美国就业和通胀现状与展望 4 | | | 1.2、 | 美国 ...

国际金价飙升的直接推手，是各国中央银行、各类机构投资者和个人"买买买"。保值升值和套利的需求是各国央行和投资者的首要考量。此前，美元及美 国国债等美元资产与黄金一样，都是重要避险工具。然而，近年来多重因素导致美元价格下跌、美国国债收益率上升，黄金的避险功能随之增强，由此驱 动多国央行在外汇储备中不断降低对美元等传统货币的依赖，大量增持黄金。 12月16日晚，金价反转，黄金直线拉升。截至12月17日7时42分，现货黄金报4307美元/盎司。 16日下午，现货黄金短暂冲高后盘中跳水，跌破4300美元。15日，现货黄金日内先震荡上行至4350美元前后，在北京时间15日22时后快速回落，最终收于 4307美元左右。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰价格多日连涨态势也随之终结。16日，周生生足金饰品报1349元/克，较15日跌4元/克，终结自12月10日起的五连涨；周大福、 老庙黄金、老凤祥等品牌，金饰克价较15日保持不变。 资料图/新华社 国际金价从今年3月突破每盎司3000美元，到10月突破每盎司4000美元，年内涨幅在历史上最狂热的黄金牛市中也是罕见的。近期，一些国际机构作出预 测称，金价未来仍有较大上涨空间。高盛对202 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted a significant shift in asset allocation preferences among high-net-worth individuals and business owners in China, driven by increasing uncertainty in U.S. policies and concerns over the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Trends - Since the Trump administration, there has been a noticeable decline in the preference for U.S. dollar assets among Chinese high-net-worth individuals and business owners, with a marked increase in the willingness to convert currency back to yuan [1] - Historical data indicates that over the past decade, particularly before 2024, China's monthly current account surplus (including trade and services) exceeded actual currency conversion amounts by approximately $20 billion, leading to an accumulation of over $2 trillion in unconverted funds [1] - In 2025, a significant change occurred where the willingness to convert currency has risen, although full conversion has not yet been achieved [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The two main drivers behind this shift are the ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policies since Trump's presidency and growing concerns regarding the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar [1] - This change in asset allocation preferences is interpreted as an important indicator of global capital flows, reflecting a diminishing attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on October 8, reaching a high of $4,081, but have since fluctuated around this level, indicating a loss of confidence in dollar assets as multiple central banks sell dollars and buy gold [4][6][18] - The U.S. is highly sensitive to gold prices, with a strong stance against allowing prices to rise to $5,000, reflecting a strategy to maintain the dollar's position [6][17] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, including the fifth cut on October 29, have been reactive rather than proactive, influenced by economic data and external pressures, highlighting the current economic dilemma faced by the U.S. [3][12][14] Group 2 - The trade war has seen a noticeable slowdown since August 12, with both sides pausing certain tariff measures and seeking negotiation space, which is closely tied to monetary policy adjustments [9][11][18] - The recent easing of trade tensions has contributed to a decline in inflation, with September's CPI dropping from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month, and year-on-year inflation at 3%, below the expected 3.1% [11][21] - The interplay between interest rate cuts, trade war dynamics, and gold price movements reflects a delicate balancing act for the U.S. economy, as each adjustment impacts overall economic stability and the international standing of the dollar [17][19][21]

Core Insights - The current U.S. government shutdown is causing short-term tightening of the dollar, leading to downward pressure on dollar assets, particularly in cryptocurrencies [1] - The U.S. strategy in the great power competition is to go "ALL in AI," as without a full commitment to AI, it lacks a competitive edge against China [1] - Excluding the impact of AI, U.S. economic data indicates stagnation or even negative growth [1] - The U.S. is decoupling from China's AI supply chain, relying on its internal cycle to achieve current AI prosperity [1] - Major U.S. tech giants have formed a closed-loop investment system since June, which is essential for maintaining local AI prosperity and significant expenditures [1] - The financial structure, particularly the debt structure, behind these tech giants is showing signs of vulnerability, raising concerns among external observers [1]