德意志银行认为比特币这轮暴跌逻辑已经发生根本性变化。 追风交易台消息，11月24日，德意志银行发表研报认为，与以往主要由散户投机驱动的崩盘不同，比特 币本轮调整下跌是由宏观经济逆风、美联储鹰派信号、监管进程停滞、机构资金外流，以及长期持有者 获利了结这"五重冲击"共同作用的结果。 数据显示，2025年迄今，比特币与纳斯达克100指数的日均相关性达到46%，与标普500指数的相关性升 至42%。 （比特币市值在各类风险资产 中率先出现下跌） （近几周来，比特币与纳斯 达克指数及标准普尔500指数的相关性有所上升） 数据显示，比特币从10月初约12.5万美元的峰值暴跌近35%至8万美元附近，导致加密市场总市值蒸发 约1万亿美元。这一轮调整不再是单一的币圈内部事件，而是比特币日益融入全球宏观金融体系后，其 作为风险资产属性的集中体现。 研报强调，比特币与科技股的相关性已大幅提高，其"数字黄金"的避险叙事在当前环境下正面临严峻考 验。这预示着比特币的投资逻辑正在发生根本性转变，风险管理的重要性被提到了前所未有的高度。 五重冲击一：比特币与科技股高度相关性 比特币此次下跌与美股等风险资产同步下滑，显示其作为防御性对冲工 ...

从之后的走势看，昨日周四亚盘开盘后，黄金小幅冲高4110美元遇阻，回落4042美元企稳，反弹4085美 元遇阻，欧盘盘中再探日低至4038美元企稳，此后金价震荡回升，美盘开盘后涨至4107美元遇阻，回落 4043美元企稳，收盘前反弹4087美元遇阻。总体来看，黄金温和反弹遇阻，走势保持区间震荡运行。 分析，周三黄金冲高回落后，温和反弹走势遇阻，主要因美联储近期对外释放鹰派信号，打压降息预 期，市场减少对12月降息的押注，支撑美元持续走强，刷新最近半年新高，对金价反弹造成限制。周四 公布的美国9月非农数据好坏参半，虽然新增就业人数增加，但失业率上升，薪资增长放缓，市场对美 联储降息的预期小幅升温至35%，美联储维持利率不变的概率接近65%，黄金在数据公布后，继续保持 区间震荡走势。 尽管美国科技股面临高估值压力遭到市场抛售，并蔓延至亚欧市场，推动了黄金的温和反弹，但是美联 储打压降息预期，市场减少了对12月降息的押注，仍对金价形成压制，因此操作上建议大家，上方压力 关注4100和4132美元，若能进一步反弹，则关注4180美元，下方支撑关注4055和4020美元。 ...

期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 德意志银行指出，近期推动金价调整的发达市场黄金 ETF 抛售潮已呈强弩之末态势。过去8个交易日 里，ETF 投资者有7天在减持头寸，但本轮抛售累计规模已达4-5月抛售总量的86%，意味着大部分卖压 已释放。 本轮抛售最猛烈的10月27日(减持44.9万金衡盎司)，发生在金价单日最大跌幅4天之后，这说明是金价下 跌引发ETF资金流出，而非ETF抛售主导金价下跌，也 ...

科技股普遍承压，截至发稿，金山软件(03888)跌2.53%，报30.8港元；腾讯控股(00700)跌2.2%，报622.5 港元；阿里巴巴-W(09988)跌0.13%，报154.7港元，早盘一度涨超2%。 消息面上，隔夜美股市场再遭猛烈抛售，其中大型科技股多数下跌。有分析称，目前投资者正在更加深 入地审视人工智能热潮的基本面。近几周来，对于科技股估值过高的担忧情绪一直主导着市场。此外， 美联储持续释放"鹰派"信号，增加12月潜在降息的不确定性。据悉，利率期货市场对美联储12月降息25 个基点的预期从之前的70%下降至40%。 东吴证券认为，港股科技短期仍在调整。自10月初开始，美股AI泡沫叙事再起，叠加近期产业缺乏新 催化剂，港股AI科技类股票上涨动能不足。英伟达财报临近，市场仍在等待信号。该行认为从中长期 看当前位置港股科技吸引力凸显。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇10月30日｜新加坡银行外汇策略师Sim Moh Siong表示，我认为日元略显疲软，这与隔夜美联储 意外释放的鹰派信号有关。日本央行在加息问题上仍持谨慎态度，而美联储在降息问题上同样保持审 慎，这种立场差异形成了鲜明对比。我们需要进一步了解植田和男的政策思路，因为日本央行年内仍存 在加息的可能性。因此我认为，其政策调整的空间依然存在。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in major U.S. stock indices, driven by investor concerns over potential hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium [3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, a decrease of 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points [3]. - The S&P 500 index dropped by 25.61 points, down 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [3]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 72.54 points, a decline of 0.34%, ending at 21,100.31 points [3]. - Large tech stocks experienced a downward trend, with Tesla down 1.17%, Meta down 1.15%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, and Google up 0.22% [3]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, nine sectors declined, with the consumer staples sector experiencing the largest drop of 1.18% [5]. - Walmart's stock plummeted by 4.5% after reporting quarterly profits below expectations, despite raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts due to tariff-induced cost increases [5]. - Coty, a beauty products manufacturer, saw its stock fall by 21.4% due to expectations of weak U.S. consumer spending impacting sales this quarter [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, while continuing claims reached 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a cooling job market [6]. - The housing market showed resilience, with July existing home sales annualized at 4.01 million, exceeding market expectations of 3.92 million and the previous value of 3.93 million [6]. Commodity Prices - As of the close on August 21, crude oil prices increased, with light crude oil futures for October delivery rising by $0.81 to $63.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.29% [6]. - Brent crude oil futures for October delivery also rose by $0.83 to $67.67 per barrel, an increase of 1.24% [6]. - COMEX gold futures for the current month fell by $6.90, a decrease of 0.20%, settling at $3,381.60 per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel mill output is expected to increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, holders have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, the decline in positions and prices weakens the bullish sentiment, and attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless steel is - 65 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 10,049 lots, an increase of 135 lots; the position of the main contract of stainless steel is 138,810 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 118,640 tons, a decrease of 1,129 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons; the spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly chromite output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people think inflation is a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believe the upside risk of inflation exceeds the downside risk of employment, but some think the risks are balanced, and two think employment risk is more prominent. The National Energy Administration released that the total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. At the raw material end, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the supply cost of nickel resources. However, the ferronickel production capacity in Indonesia is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].