国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价部分标品转产非标，但检修有限供应宽松，期现或难共振 供应 2025年总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工83.7%/+0.4%。上海、茂名、扬 子、宝丰检修，后续埃克森、广东石化检修，供应环比下滑。Q1检修计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状态，1月继续有裕龙、独山子等全密度产能 转产HD,标品排产低位，但外盘乙烯裂解利润修复，供应中枢暂宽松看待。 进口中东、美国货源1月货集中到港，总体进口增加或集中在25年底26年初。美国清库压力缓解，国内反弹后，外商试探 ...

【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-01-05 长江期货聚烯烃月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：上行区间有限，预计偏弱震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：12月31日塑料主力合约收盘价6472元/吨，月环比-4.67%。LDPE均价为8400元/吨，环比-6.67%，HDPE均价为 6862.50元/吨，环比-7.71%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6518.33元/吨，环比-9.30%。LLDPE华南基差收于46.33元/ 吨，环比-88.40%，1-5月差-202元/吨（-134）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6348元/吨，较上月末-61元/吨，环比-0.95%。 生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6170元/吨（-3.04%）。PP基差收-178元/吨（-132），1-5月差-40元/吨（-19）。 2 3 基本面变化：1、供应端：本月中国聚乙烯生产开工率82.64%，较上月末-1.87个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量67.22万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Plastic - This week, the supply elasticity of price reduction has not been realized yet. At the end of the year, the supply increases while the demand weakens, putting pressure on prices. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is under pressure [5]. Polypropylene - In the off - season, the price is under pressure, and there may be marginal changes in PDH on the supply side. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the market supply - demand pattern is still not optimistic [92]. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has not strengthened significantly. The low price in North China has continued to decline, and East and South China have made up for the decline. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates around - 50, and the warehouse receipts remain high at a stable level. The import window is compressed, and the non - standard import profit is at a relatively high level within the year [5]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%. The domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. The current maintenance scale in December has declined. It is expected that the supply will remain in a loose state. The import volume may still be high at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [5]. Demand & Inventory - The agricultural film start - up rate continues to decline, and the packaging film festival effect has gradually subsided. The downstream raw material inventory is maintained at a low level, and the demand for raw materials is expected to decrease. The inventory removal of the PE as a whole is not smooth, the upstream factory inventory has accumulated slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis fluctuates weakly, and the month spread strengthens slightly. The overseas price of PP rebounds and then falls back, and the import window tends to close [94]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The planned maintenance volume at the end of the year declines, and the supply center is high. The short - term PP import volume is limited, and the export volume is expected to maintain the basic level in the short term [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate is temporarily stable, but the orders of plastic weaving, pipes and other industries have weakened seasonally. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory, and the raw material procurement is sluggish. The inventory removal of PP as a whole is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period of last year [93].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳，随着丙烷价格强 势，PDH利润持续下滑。供需端，塑编整体转入淡季需求回落，管材需求尚可。当前PP交割品现 货价6250（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-4，升贴水比例-0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存53.8万吨（+0.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚烯烃周报 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 观点综述 01 塑料部分 02 聚丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周塑料观点：跌价供应弹性暂未兑现，年底供增需减价格承压 | | 总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工84.11%/+0.06%。新增独山子石化两套 | | --- | --- | | | 全密度装置检修，但部分存量装置重启。下周因新增扬子石化、中韩石化、上海石化等检修，以及前期检修装置尚未重启，供应小幅缩减。Q4检修 | | 供应 | 计划同比略低，预计供应维持宽松状态，此外上游乙烯裂解利润低位，前期新加坡、韩国有部分裂解延期回归，且乙烯小幅反弹，外采利润压缩， | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转，俄乌和平协 议短期受挫，油价震荡偏强。供需端，农膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所 转好。当前LL交割品现货价6680（-60），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差6，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6740（-80）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-36，升贴水比例-0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of polyolefins is at a relatively low level, and polyolefins tend to fluctuate at the bottom. In December, the supply will increase while the demand will weaken, resulting in high pressure to transfer inventory downstream. However, since the monthly spread is already at the lowest level in the past five years, if the crude oil price remains relatively stable, polyolefins will tend to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Supply: 12 - month refinery maintenance decreases, and supply gradually rebounds - **PE**: In November, the number of unit overhauls decreased, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. In December, the overhauls remained low. The 500,000 - ton/year low - pressure unit of BASF is planned to be put into production at the end of the year, with limited impact on linear PE. The PE output is expected to be around 2.75 million tons [3] - **PP**: In November, the number of overhauled units decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained relatively stable at around 78%. The output increased significantly year - on - year, and the domestic supply was relatively sufficient. In December, although there were no new units, the overhauled units resumed production one after another, and the output is expected to increase to around 3.3 million tons [3] 3.2 Demand: Demand gradually weakens in December - **PE**: In November, it was the peak season for agricultural film demand, and the start - up rate remained high, but the start - up rates of other downstream industries began to decline. In December, the demand for agricultural film entered the off - season, and the demand is expected to continue to decline [3][19] - **PP**: In December, the traditional demand is expected to enter the off - season. Plastic weaving and injection molding manufacturers are affected by the winter consumption off - season, with fewer orders and cautious procurement. The demand is expected to decline [3][26] 3.3 Inventory: Refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the pressure to reduce inventory remains high - **PE**: At the end of November, the overall social inventory was at a normal level, and the petrochemical inventory was slightly higher than that of the same period last year. It is still in the stage of active inventory reduction [3][37] - **PP**: The supply is at a high level. Although refineries actively reduce inventory, downstream purchases on a just - in - time basis, and the total inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The pressure to reduce inventory in December remains high [3][53] 3.4 Spread: Basis weakens - **LLDPE**: The basis strengthens slightly, and the monthly spread rebounds slightly but is at the lowest level in the past five years due to high supply pressure [62][69] - **PP**: The basis strengthens, and the monthly spread continues to weaken due to high supply pressure [81][87] 3.5 Profit: Coal - based profits weaken, and oil - based profits fluctuate slightly - **PE**: Both oil - based and coal - based production profits have declined [101] - **PP**: The production profits from different raw materials show different trends, and the overall situation is complex [106]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. Future focus should be on the macro - level. If macro - level policies are positive, polyolefins have the opportunity to rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - level Domestic - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of the previous month. New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 280 billion. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; it changed from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [8]. - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [10][12]. International - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. CPI for October 2025 was not released on time. The CPI in September rose 0.1% from the previous month to 3%. The eurozone's CPI in October 2025 decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2.1%. Both U.S. and European inflation have dropped to relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - After the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, it may further cut interest rates in December due to concerns about weak employment. The eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [15]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the U.S. economy, but the U.S. economy remains resilient. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7%, while the service industry PMI rose 2.4 percentage points to 52.4% [16]. Fundamentals PE - In November 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.31%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8866 million tons, up 0.1 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to a 13.35% decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of a new device at Guangxi Petrochemical [19]. - In November 2025, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene was 44.59%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous month. The fundamentals of PE packaging film declined month - on - month, with the operating rate dropping 1.56% month - on - month. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased 7.9% month - on - month [20]. - In November 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene decreased. At the end of the month, the social sample warehouse inventory was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons from the previous month. Low prices drove sales and increased the frequency of terminal purchases [24]. PP - In November 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.4694 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. Although a new 400,000 - ton/year device at Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II was put into operation, the total production decreased slightly due to one less day in the month [27]. - In November 2025, the estimated consumption of polypropylene in China was 3.4894 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The average downstream operating rate was 53.30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%, mainly driven by e - commerce promotions and new energy vehicle promotion policies [30]. - At the end of November 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 546,300 tons, a decrease of 8.2% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 6.16% from the end of the previous month [33]. Market Outlook PE - In December 2025, the supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to remain. The demand for agricultural film will enter the off - season, the operating rate of the packaging industry may continue to decline, and the infrastructure demand in the pipe industry will decrease. The cost support will further weaken, and the market price may hover at a low level [6][35]. PP - In December 2025, although imports will continue to decrease, the supply pressure of polypropylene will increase as the maintenance plan of domestic polypropylene devices is basically over. The increase in festival - related orders is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify [6][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The market for both PE and PP is facing challenges in supply - demand balance and cost support [1][3]. - For PE, the supply pressure remains due to new capacity release and limited future planned maintenance, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening [3]. - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short - term. Although some short - term maintenance eases the supply pressure to some extent, the demand is also weakening, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening while that from PDH is strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6707 yuan/ton (-55), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The LL North China spot price is 6800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 6900 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (-10). The LL North China basis is 93 yuan/ton (+55), the LL East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 85 yuan/ton (+42) [2]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 82.7% (-0.4%), and PP operating rate is 78.3% (-1.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 379.1 yuan/ton (+82.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 400.9 yuan/ton (+82.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 437.6 yuan/ton (-23.2) [2]. 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is 8.9 yuan/ton (+20.0), the PP import profit is - 232.6 yuan/ton (-0.9), and the PP export profit is 2.9 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [2]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.2% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [2]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.7 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short - term, with weak cost - side support, the futures market may show a weak bottom - side oscillating trend [4]. - Inter - period: For L01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices; for PP01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].