[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（11.17-11.21） 权益回调，债券 ETF 迎来转机 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况：央行买断式逆回购与股债跷板效应共振，债 券 ETF净流入回暖。上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流 入资金分别+37.39 亿元、+65.43 亿元、+35.52 亿元，债券 ETF 市场合计净 流入金额 138.34 亿元。上周央行加量续做 6M 买断式逆回购，市场流动性充 裕推动债券 ETF 市场份额净值双增。叠加上周权益市场高位回调，沪深 300 指数单周大跌 3.77%，提振债市行情。多数类型获资金净流入，国债 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved, with support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures and rising expectations of easing due to the slowdown of economic momentum. Investors should pay attention to this week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize opportunities to buy on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw reappeared. The stock market reached a new high, suppressing the bond market, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Yields of major term interest - bearing Treasury bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 reached 1.8040%, up 0.3bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: With continuous central bank injections, the pressure on bank funds has been significantly relieved. The central bank conducted a net injection of 972 billion yuan today, and it has been a consecutive net injection this week. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined slightly, indicating a marginal easing of funding pressure. Overnight weighted interest rates and 7 - day interest rates in the inter - bank market both decreased, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The domestic economic fundamentals face pressure, with economic indicators weakening since June, especially the accelerating decline in investment and the decline in exports in October. Currently, there is an increase in loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand. The impact of loose fiscal policies on the bond market is expected to be limited in the short term. Overall, the bond market environment has improved, but there are still some uncertain disturbances [11][12]. 2. Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with relevant American figures, stating that China and the US have broad cooperation space in the economic and trade field and should jointly promote the stable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [13]. - During the 8th China International Import Expo, Vice - Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping held a symposium for foreign - funded retail enterprises, welcoming them to develop in China [13]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 43 - day federal government shutdown. The government shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [13]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Trump administration will announce "substantial" tariff news in the next few days and plans to implement tariff exemptions on commodities such as coffee and bananas. The government is also discussing a "tariff dividend" plan to provide a $2000 tax refund to families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [13]. - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as the Fed Chairman if nominated and hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut at the December policy meeting [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on Treasury bond futures trading on November 13, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. It also mentions various cross - period and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The report shows the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the change in the pledged repurchase rate between banks and depository institutions [28][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curves (average) of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. Considering that the central bank has started bond purchases, the bottom of treasury bond futures is supported. Coupled with the slowdown in economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is advisable to pay attention to next week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to layout on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Today's weak export data and the A-share market's rise and then fall had limited support for the bond market. With the central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds in recent days, the liquidity tightened slightly, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8070%, up 0.6bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the liquidity tightened marginally. Today, there were 3551 billion yuan of open - market operations due, and the central bank injected 1417 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan. This was the fifth consecutive day of net withdrawal this week. The inter - bank funds sentiment index rose slightly, indicating marginal tightening of liquidity. Among them, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits among banks rose slightly by 1.5bp to 1.33%, the 7 - day rate fell slightly by 1.24bp to 1.413%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: Since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. In particular, the investment side has accelerated its decline, and the export, which was the main support for the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of falling exports and weak domestic demand still poses significant pressure on the economic fundamentals. Currently, the central bank is implementing loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Referring to past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **Foreign Trade Data**: On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a growth of 8.3% in the previous period; imports increased by 1%, compared with a growth of 7.4% in the previous period; the trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, compared with 904.5 billion US dollars in the previous period [13]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October, showing a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading. This means that the treasury bond trading operation that was suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the central bank announced that it would conduct a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 [13]. - **US Economic Situation**: The severe employment situation in the United States has led to an increase in expectations of an interest - rate cut. Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9100 in October, compared with an increase of 33000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of job cuts by Challenger Gray & Christmas in the United States in October reached 153100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government has led to the suspension of the release of official inflation data, causing some Federal Reserve officials to worry about the future direction of monetary policy [13][14]. - **Real Estate News**: Recently, many real - estate enterprises have made significant progress in debt restructuring. As of now, 21 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which will greatly relieve the short - term public debt repayment pressure of these enterprises. Industry insiders believe that the approval of debt restructuring and reorganization of troubled real - estate enterprises will accelerate the process of clearing real - estate risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on November 7, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6].

1. Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds & Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Core View - The stock - bond seesaw continues, with the strengthening of the A - share market suppressing the bond market, and most treasury bond futures falling. The yields of major on - the - run interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market have fully rebounded. The money market at the beginning of the month is stable and loose. Considering the economic fundamentals and policies, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities if there is market over - adjustment [8][9][10][11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance** - Stock - bond seesaw: The strengthening of the A - share market suppresses the bond market, and most treasury bond futures decline [8] - Interest rate bonds: The yields of major on - the - run interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market have fully rebounded. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8010%, up 0.85bp [9] - Money market: At the beginning of the month, the money market is stable and loose. There was 342.6 billion yuan of maturity in the open market today, and the central bank injected 92.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index is stable, with the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuating narrowly around 1.31, the 7 - day rate dropping slightly by 1.25bp to 1.4253%, the medium - and long - term funds being stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising slightly by 1bp to 1.64% [10] - **Conclusion** - Economic fundamentals: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially the investment side has accelerated its decline. Currently, exports are the main support, but the export leading indicators in October have significantly weakened, and the bond market may face pressure from the decline in exports and weak domestic demand. Market expectations of monetary easing may heat up again [11] - Policy: The current combination of loose monetary policy and loose fiscal policy is being intensified. The resumption of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. Based on past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policy may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12] - Suggestion: The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a period of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. If there is market over - adjustment due to phased disturbances, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [12] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank's release of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October shows that the net injection of treasury bond trading in the open market is 2 billion yuan, indicating that the treasury bond trading operation suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. The central bank also announced a 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5, which is an equal - amount roll - over considering the maturity amount in the same month. Market institutions generally expect the central bank to conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation in November, and are optimistic about the continued net injection of outright reverse repurchases in that month [13] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the U.S. may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right way. The China - EU export control dialogue and consultation were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on November 6, including contract information such as previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for multiple contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repo interest rate change [29][31] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the context of the stock - bond seesaw effect and the new regulations on public fund sales, interest rates have been oscillating and adjusting since September, and market sentiment has become more cautious. Debt funds have continuously sold long - term credit bonds and bought short - term credit bonds around 1Y since the first and middle ten days of this month. This week, ultra - long - term credit bonds saw a significant catch - up decline. Currently, with the pressure of wealth management products returning to the balance sheet gradually clearing and interest rates approaching the top of the periodic range, ultra - long - term bonds may gradually enter the area of attention [4][44]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) this week was 165.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 598 billion yuan, an increase of 15 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 432.9 billion yuan, an increase of 199.3 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 8.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 69.7 billion yuan compared to last week [9]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 47.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.7 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 126.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was - 8.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.6 billion yuan [9]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 25, and the redemption quantity increased by 27; for industrial bonds, the issuance quantity increased by 23, and the redemption quantity increased by 50; for financial bonds, the issuance quantity decreased by 20, and the redemption quantity decreased by 12 [11]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AAA industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased. The issuance rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds rose above 2.8%, and the issuance rate of AA financial bonds increased by 72BP compared to last week. Specifically, the weighted average issuance rates of AA and AA + industrial bonds increased by 33BP and 24BP respectively, while those of AAA industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased by 9BP and 19BP respectively [17]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Transaction Situation - In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 96.3 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 292.8 billion yuan, an increase of 36.2 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 369.9 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 537 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 24.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4 billion yuan [18]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds increased overall, while that of asset - backed securities decreased slightly. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds were 1.87%, 2.02%, and 3.53% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.23pct, 0.25pct, and 0.07pct. The turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09pct [19]. 2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities all adjusted to varying degrees, with the adjustment of medium - and long - term bonds being significantly greater than that of short - term bonds. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 5BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively; those of 3 - 5Y increased by 7BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively; and those of over 10Y increased by 12BP, 11BP, and 9BP respectively [23][25]. - Taking AA + 5Y bonds of each variety as an example, the yields of non - publicly issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 9BP; that of AA + 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 10BP; those of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds increased by 8BP and 17BP respectively; and that of AA + 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 10BP [26]. 2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA construction and decoration and AA + electronics industries widened significantly, while the fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 10BP. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA construction and decoration industry widened by 11BP, and that of the AA + electronics industry widened by 22BP [27]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all widened to varying degrees. For example, the credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds widened by 5BP, 6BP, 7BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [32]. - By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different ratings and in different regions all widened to varying degrees, and the credit spread of AA + urban investment bonds in Heilongjiang widened by more than 10BP. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Jilin, Yunnan, Shandong, and Sichuan; those of AA + urban investment bonds were Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Qinghai; and those of AAA urban investment bonds were Liaoning, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Tianjin, and Jilin [33]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds widened to varying degrees compared to last week. For example, the credit spreads of 1Y and 10Y private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of AAA -, AA +, and AA all widened [36]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with different maturities and ratings all widened to varying degrees, and the widening amplitude of 5 - 10Y bonds exceeded 10BP. For example, the credit spreads of 1Y and 10Y Tier 2 capital bonds and bank perpetual bonds of AAA -, AA +, and AA all widened [38]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - A total of 16 bond issues of 5 entities had their implied ratings downgraded, including 8 issues of Nanshan Group Co., Ltd., 4 issues of China National Foreign Trade Trust Co., Ltd., and 2 issues of Xiamen International Trust Co., Ltd. The "19 Qidi G2" issued by Qidi Environmental Technology Development Co., Ltd. was extended [3][41]. 4. Investment Suggestion - This week, there were 1826.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the open market, 6 billion yuan of central bank bills were issued, and 30 billion yuan of MLF was withdrawn. The central bank conducted a total of 2467.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 60 billion yuan of MLF, achieving a net injection of 880.6 billion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 dropped from 1.40% at the Monday close to 1.25% at the Friday close, and the overnight capital interest rate remained in a low - level oscillation [43]. - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA construction and decoration and AA + electronics industries widened significantly, while the fluctuations of credit spreads of other industries and ratings did not exceed 10BP. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds all widened to varying degrees [43].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese bond market and its relationship with monetary policy, particularly in the context of potential easing measures by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in response to external economic conditions and domestic growth needs [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Correlation**: Historically, there has been a synchronization between the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and the PBOC. For instance, after the Fed's rate cuts in 2019 and 2024, the PBOC followed suit by lowering rates [2]. 2. **Current Economic Environment**: The external environment in 2025 differs from previous years, with a stronger RMB against the USD since April, reducing external balance pressures. This may lead to a weaker correlation between US and Chinese monetary policies [2][4]. 3. **Liquidity Tools**: The PBOC has been utilizing tools like reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to meet liquidity needs, indicating that the urgency to restart government bond purchases is relatively low [1][4]. 4. **Market Stability**: In a stable market with little change in the yield curve, there is no immediate need for the PBOC to alter interest rates. However, unexpected market shifts could prompt a reassessment [5][6]. 5. **Economic Performance**: The Chinese economy has shown signs of weakness in domestic demand, particularly after Q2 2025, necessitating potential monetary easing to stabilize growth [7]. 6. **Stock and Bond Market Dynamics**: The current stock market has not significantly impacted bond market sentiment. As long as bank liabilities remain stable, the likelihood of a major adjustment in the bond market is low [8]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: It is suggested to adopt a leveraged coupon strategy and remain flexible in trading operations, especially if external demand weakens further [9]. 8. **Bond Switching Conditions**: Both 10-year and 30-year bonds are eligible for switching to the next active bond, but the pace for 30-year bonds is faster. The current spread between new and old bonds has narrowed, limiting further arbitrage opportunities [10]. Other Important Insights - The potential for the PBOC to restart government bond purchases is being discussed, but it is viewed more as a protective measure rather than a catalyst for growth [2][4]. - The market's expectation for monetary easing remains subdued despite recent economic adjustments, indicating a cautious outlook [7][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation for bonds remains unchanged. [11] - In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has been significantly strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put great pressure on the bond market. Although the fundamental data in July showed marginal weakness, it still demonstrated short - term resilience, and it is difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market cannot form a trend. [11] - Similar to the stock - bond seesaw period from February to March this year, the bond market may need to see the alleviation of relevant negative forces to stabilize and rise. Recently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed down, and the central bank has actively protected the capital market, so the pressure on the bond market has eased, and its sensitivity to the stock market has weakened. However, it is necessary to observe the adjustment of the A - share market and be vigilant against renewed suppression. If the equity market starts a new round of upward movement, it may intensify the redemption pressure of fixed - income products and bring passive selling pressure. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions on the Day - The A - share market rebounded in a V - shape in the afternoon, and the bond market was suppressed again. All treasury bond futures closed lower. [8] 3.1.2 Interest Rate Spot Bonds - The yields of major term interest - rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.761%, down 0.25bp. [9] 3.1.3 Capital Market - The central bank increased its capital injection to support cross - month funds. There were 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Most short - term capital interest rates rose. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rose about 3bp to 1.54%, the medium - and long - term capital remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fell to 1.6%. [10] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption next month, and will jointly formulate the "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports" with relevant departments, and the relevant documents will be publicly issued soon. [13] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared with June. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, leading the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June. [13] - In 2024, China's new economic development momentum index was 136.0, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. All sub - indices increased compared with the previous year, with the network economy and innovation drive contributing significantly to the growth of the total index. [13] - In 2024, China's trade volume with other member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached about $512.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. [14] - Shanghai issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the transformation of urban villages, prioritizing the transformation of urban villages with urgent public needs, many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers, and requiring the first - time shareholding ratio of town collective economic organizations in cooperative transformation to be no less than 10%. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on August 28, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. [6] - It also mentions various data on treasury bond futures, including the spread between main - contract tenors, the spread between main - contract varieties, the trend of main - contract prices, as well as data on the money market (such as SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged - repo weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repo interest rate changes) and the derivatives market (such as Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves). All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [15][25][35]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged due to the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and high tariff uncertainties. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has pressured the bond market. Although the July fundamental data shows short - term resilience, the bond market's short - term rebound is unlikely to form a trend. However, with the slowdown of the A - share rally and the central bank's support for the capital market, the bond market may continue its short - term rebound, and the subsequent adjustment of the A - share market should be monitored [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares tumbled in the afternoon, boosting risk - aversion sentiment and leading to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed short - term decline and long - term increase with narrow fluctuations. The central bank's net capital withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank capital market from loosening [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Long - term bullish factors remain, but short - term pressure from the stock - bond seesaw exists. The bond market may continue its short - term rebound, and the A - share adjustment should be watched [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Fiscal policy has been more active this year, with the issuance and use of government bonds accelerating. As of August 26, the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds reached 996 billion yuan (76.6% of the total), and the issuance of local government special bonds exceeded last year's level. The government may introduce incremental policies and expand the use of local government special bonds [13] - The State Council issued an opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action to promote the integration of AI in various industries, aiming to address issues such as inconsistent understanding of AI and difficulties in application [14] - After Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the market worried about the damage to the Fed's independence, leading to a sell - off of US dollar assets and a rise in gold [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 27 are presented, including prices, trading volumes, and positions. Also, information on inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and trends of major contracts is provided [6] - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates are presented [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [37]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. Although the economic data in July weakened marginally, it still showed short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. A short - term bond - market rebound does not constitute a trend. Currently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed, the bond market's sensitivity to the stock market has decreased, and with the central bank's active support for the capital market, bond - market sentiment has improved, and short - term varieties are more resilient than long - term ones [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The A - share market shrank and declined in the afternoon, boosting long - term bond sentiment. Long - term treasury bond futures closed significantly higher. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities declined, with long - term yields falling mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.75750%, down 0.6bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's net withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank funding market from loosening. There were 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. Short - term funding rates showed mixed trends, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 3.5bp to 1.315% and the 7 - day rate falling 2.82bp to 1.49%. Medium - and long - term funds rose slightly, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising 4bp to around 1.64% [10] 2. Industry News - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized further deepening industrial assistance to Tibet. Central state - owned enterprises are encouraged to develop characteristic plateau industries in Tibet, increase investment in infrastructure, and promote major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway. They should also enhance ethnic unity through various means [13] - The 13th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, with discussions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan". Different committee members put forward suggestions on developing new - quality productive forces, integrating the digital economy with the real economy, boosting consumption, and enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The US Secretary of Commerce said that details of the US - Japan agreement would be announced this week, involving Japan's commitment of $550 billion in investment in the US for domestic production of semiconductors, antibiotics, and rare earths [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on August 26, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes, were provided. Also, information on the inter - maturity spreads of main treasury bond futures contracts and inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year) and the trends of main treasury bond futures contracts were mentioned [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repurchase interest rates, and the changes in the inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates were provided [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided [36]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].