年初增量资金入场，逢低做多 股指周报 2025/01/10 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 交易策略建议 | | | | | 交易策略建议 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 单边 | 持有少量IM多 单 | / | 长期 | 估值处于中等偏低水平，IM长期存在贴水。 | ★★★★★ | 2022.7.23 | | 单边 | IF多单持有 | 3:1 | 6个月 | 新一轮降息周期开启，高分红资产有望受益。 | ★★★★☆ | 2025.7.18 | 期现市场 重要消息：1、两部门：4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税；将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%，20 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（1月9日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.60%，道指期货涨0.47%，纳斯达克 100股指期货涨0.96%。罗素2000股指期货涨0.77%。 ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 1 月 9 日 股指期货 IC2603 和 IM2603 合约均创下上市以来新高 IF2603 偏强震荡 IH2603 震荡整理 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 1 月 9 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2603、IH2603、IC2603 和 IM2603 小幅高开；开盘后，继续震荡上行。 IC2603 创下 2015 年 7 月 20 日上市以来新高 8020.6 点，IM2603 再创 2022 年 7 月 22 日上市以来新高 8016.0 点。IC2603 和 IM2603 震荡偏强上行，涨幅明显大于 IF2603 和 IH2603。2025 年 12 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.8%， 预期上涨 0.75%，环比上涨 0.2%；PP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the performance of multiple stock indices on January 08th, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300, along with the impact of various sectors on these indices and the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures [1][2][13] 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On January 08th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to close at 4082.98 points, with a trading volume of 1183.189 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51% to close at 13959.48 points, with a trading volume of 1617.077 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 rose 0.82% with a trading volume of 605.389 billion yuan, opening at 7886.81, closing at 7971.59, with a high of 7993.63 and a low of 7886.63 [1] - The CSI 500 rose 0.25% with a trading volume of 564.453 billion yuan, opening at 7853.21, closing at 7894.54, with a high of 7938.59 and a low of 7849.07 [1] - The CSI 300 fell 0.82% with a trading volume of 630.656 billion yuan, opening at 4761.01, closing at 4737.65, with a high of 4765.49 and a low of 4717.01 [1] - The SSE 50 fell 0.73% with a trading volume of 187.896 billion yuan, opening at 3137.81, closing at 3122.06, with a high of 3142.85 and a low of 3107.02 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 65.17 points from the previous close, with sectors such as National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, and Medicine and Biology significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 19.46 points from the previous close, with sectors like National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Power Equipment pulling the index up, while Basic Chemicals, Non - Banking Finance, and Non - Ferrous Metals pulling it down [2] - The CSI 300 fell 39.02 points from the previous close, with National Defense and Military Industry pulling the index up, and Banking, Telecommunications, and Non - Banking Finance pulling it down [2] - The SSE 50 fell 23.06 points from the previous close, with Electronics and National Defense and Military Industry pulling the index up, and Food and Beverage, Banking, and Non - Banking Finance pulling it down [2] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis of IM00 is - 12.56, IM01 is - 80.65, IM02 is - 139.25, and IM03 is - 366.77 [13] - For IC contracts, the average daily basis of IC00 is 0.82, IC01 is - 38.69, IC02 is - 68.42, and IC03 is - 242.22 [13] - For IF contracts, the average daily basis of IF00 is 1.09, IF01 is - 9.71, IF02 is - 18.24, and IF03 is - 64.07 [13] - For IH contracts, the average daily basis of IH00 is - 1.29, IH01 is - 1.76, IH02 is - 0.97, and IH03 is - 9.84 [13]

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | HE E BE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | | 叶倩宁 Z0016628 | | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月8日 | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 997.94 | 998.90 | -0.96 | -0.10% | 元/克 | | AG2604合约 | 18450 | 19290 | -840 | -4.35% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 575.00 | 598.50 | -23.50 | -3.93% | | | PD2606合约 | 460.70 | 475.95 | -15.25 | -3.20% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月8日 | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4487 90 | 4467.10 | 20.80 | 0.47% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均延续震荡盘整。沪深京三市成交额 28262 亿元，较上日缩量 553 亿元。股 指大幅上行之后，技术面上需要一定时间震荡整 ...

每经AI快讯，周四（1月8日）纽约尾盘，标普500股指期货最终涨0.15%，道指期货涨0.70%，纳斯达克 100股指期货跌0.47%。罗素2000股指期货涨1.37%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 ...

Index Trends - On January 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4085.77 points, with a trading volume of 1197.423 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.06% to close at 14030.56 points, with a trading volume of 1656.718 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% with a trading volume of 617.917 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 582.741 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.43% with a trading volume of 169.307 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index fell 0.29% with a trading volume of 664.898 billion yuan [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 41.52 points compared to the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals significantly pulling the index up, while the computer sector pulled it down [3] - The CSI 500 rose 60.94 points, with electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [3] - The SSE 300 fell 14.02 points, with the communication sector pulling the index up and computer, bank, and non - bank finance sectors pulling it down [3] - The SSE 50 fell 13.64 points, with electronics and pharmaceuticals pulling the index up and petroleum & petrochemicals, non - bank finance, and banks pulling it down [3] Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For the CSI 1000 futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 14.37, IM01 of - 79.08, IM02 of - 138.58, and IM03 of - 363.84 [12] - For the CSI 500 futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of 1.57, IC01 of - 35.97, IC02 of - 62.9, and IC03 of - 236.62 [12] - For the SSE 300 futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 0.44, IF01 of - 11.71, IF02 of - 18.75, and IF03 of - 63.84 [12] - For the SSE 50 futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.17, IH01 of - 1.86, IH02 of - 1.01, and IH03 of - 10.37 [12]

| | | --- | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/08 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.150 | 4.415 | 3.521 | 2.849 | 3.514 | 3.251 | 0.241 | 3.379 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.116 | 6.234 | 1.892 | - | 4.758 | 4.492 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.472 | 3.673 | 2.088 | 1.162 ...