报告导读： 防水行业是消费建材中出清最彻底的子行业， 2026 年行业头部企业有望继续 推进复价策略，行业盈利能力修复可期。 维持行业"增持"评级。 经历了应收账款信用风险和较为快速的量价下滑后，防水成为近年消费建材出清最剧烈的子行业。我们估算 2024 年行业前四家市占 率已经接近 50% 。作为轻资产化学建材行业，龙头企业在 B 端工程业务已经接近盈亏平衡下，这意味着行业盈利能力已经处在底部位置。 2025 年行业主 要公司已经开始进行底部提价尝试，意味着主导企业经营策略的集体转变。 2026 年行业稳价复价的趋势有望更加明显，叠加开年沥青价格较低基础， 2026 年行业盈利有希望明显修复。 防水行业出清最剧烈，集中度提升带来复价可能。 2021 年行业需求从高峰调整以来，防水行业是消费建材中出清最剧烈的子行业。这来自于 :1. 行业"垫 资"传统下应收账款信用风险暴露出清中小企业； 2. 行业开工端占比相对高需求下滑更领先； 3. 行业近年价格竞争激烈。我们估算以 2024 年为例，行业规 模前三企业合计市占率已经提升到 50% 左右， 2025 年应有进一步的提升。行业集中度的快速提升带来了两方面的变 ...

（来源：化妆品观察 品观） 2025年，化妆品工厂"倒闭潮"并未退去，反而呈加剧态势。 《化妆品观察》梳理各地监管部门公告发现，2025年，全国范围内至少有203家企业注销了《化妆品生产许可证》。 与此同时，一个与以往不同的趋势正在凸显：在这轮"注销潮"中，高达93%的企业选择了"主动退场"。 | 序号 | 企业名称 | 许可证导 | 成立时间 | 注册资本 | 原因 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ר | 广州盛胶化收品有限公司 | 粤放20161349 | 20088 | 507 | 主动注销 | | ñ | 广州市白云区美蓬葆化妆品厂 | 粤波20160131 | 2009年 | 500万 | 王动注销 | | 3 | 广州市玉鑫化妆品有限公司 | ■放20161625 | 2013年 | 50 /7 | 主动注销 | | ট | 广州造成化妆品有限公司 | ■故20170402 | 2017年 | 50万 | 主动注销 | | ട് | 广州市营研化妆品有限公司 | ■妆20160524 | 2008年 | 500万 | 主动注销 | | 6 | 广 ...

期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的 现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场还因反内卷政策预期一度 躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月5日凌晨，氧化铝期货主力合约在夜盘交易中收于2590元/吨，跌破了2600元/吨整 数关口，刷新上市以来新低。 期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场 还因反内卷政策预期一度躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 在新疆交割库接近满额、后续大量仓单即将到期的压力下，氧化铝产能明显过剩，期货与跌破 2800元/吨的现货市场形成双杀。 所谓"双杀"，是指期货价格与现货价格同步大幅下跌，使得无论是持有期货头寸还是现货实物的 市场参与者普遍面临亏损的局面。 行业共识正在形成：除非出现"检修企业达到一定量级"的实质性减产，否则市场的跌势难以扭 转。 破位下行 2025年12月5日的夜盘，成了压垮氧化铝价格的最后一根稻草。氧化铝主力合约收于2590元/吨 的价位，创下新低。这一价格已跌出行业公认的现金生产成本区间。根据行业普遍的成本模型测 算，国内约90%至全部氧化铝产能的边际现金成本在28 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company held a Q3 earnings presentation on December 2, 2025, to provide insights into its performance and address investor inquiries regarding various operational aspects and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Presentation Overview - The earnings presentation was conducted via a video live stream and included participation from key executives, allowing for direct communication with investors [2]. - The company reported a cash dividend of 0.14 yuan per share, totaling 1.06 billion yuan distributed to shareholders [5]. Group 2: Supply and Market Conditions - The company ensured a stable supply of four categories of medicines in response to increased health demands due to a flu outbreak, with sales showing a month-on-month increase since November [3]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with a net decrease of 3,166 and 4,002 pharmacies in the first and second quarters of 2025, respectively, leading to a total of 695,000 pharmacies [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its online business, achieving a 28% year-on-year growth in online sales for the first three quarters of 2025, and plans to implement strategies for quality improvement and operational efficiency [6]. - The company has initiated a dual-line transformation in its stores, aiming to shift staff roles from sales to health advisory positions, enhancing customer experience [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The overall gross margin decreased in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to an increase in the sales proportion of lower-margin products, while core business segments maintained stable or improved margins [9]. - The company is implementing measures to optimize its sales structure and improve gross margins, including refining product offerings and enhancing procurement and logistics efficiency [9].

点击按钮▲立即预约 " 一块标注清晰、性能透明、安全有保障的 3C 充电宝，是每一次出行最实在的兜底。 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 不久前，小巴在出差时遭遇了尴尬：从A城飞B城时，一个没有3C标识的充电宝顺利带上了飞机；从B城返程时，同款充电宝却被拦下，最终花了 29元将其邮寄回家。 更令人不解的是，这块充电宝前段时间还能"出境游"。 而在过安检的时候，小巴亲眼看到不少大小不一、形状各异的标有"3C认证"的充电宝被拦了下来。理由无外乎"能量太大""标识不清晰"等。 " 一去一回的差异和见闻，我们不免对充电宝的合格标准与携带要求生出困惑。 航站楼安检人员提醒旅客检查充电宝 图源：工信部 新规结合近年来充电宝自燃、爆炸等事件，"现有3C认证全面失效"的消息开始在网上流传： 恰逢这段时间，工信部多次组织研讨会，一条被称为"史上最严"的《移动电源安全技术规范》即将落地的消息，引起了不小讨论。 "我充电宝刚换没多久，这3C标准一调，明年上半年是不是废了？" 日前，官方给出了解释： "已获3C认证的充电宝不受新标准影响，消费者可继续正常使用、带上飞机，无需担心闲置浪费。新的标准仍处于征求意见阶段，会吸纳各方建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently among the most cost-effective high-return assets globally, with core indices' ROE stabilizing despite ongoing economic pressures and deflation [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - A-shares and Hong Kong stock indices exhibit significant return advantages compared to global assets, with the CSI 300 index's current PE ratio at approximately 13 times, implying a return of 7%, while some Hong Kong indices show even higher implied returns [1]. - Despite concerns about bubbles in certain sectors, the overall market's median valuation remains in a relatively low range, indicating that valuation risks have been largely released [1]. Profitability Concerns - The primary concern regarding profitability amidst economic decline and persistent deflation has been addressed, asserting that core indices' ROE will not significantly decline even if economic conditions do not improve [4]. - Historical data shows that during previous economic downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2015 market adjustment, the ROE of core indices stabilized at current levels, receiving strong support [4]. Industry Dynamics - In economic downturns, many companies face losses, but leading firms maintain their ROE, reflecting the profitability gap between strong and weak companies. The index is primarily composed of leading firms, which helps stabilize the overall ROE [4]. - The construction materials industry serves as a case study, where leading companies are showing signs of profit improvement despite the sector's deep adjustment. For instance, only the top two companies in the industry remain profitable, while the third has incurred losses [4]. Investment Value of Leading Firms - Leading companies are expected to maintain their profitability levels even if industry demand continues to decline, as the exit of weaker firms will absorb downward pressure on the industry [4]. - The profit margins of leading firms have begun to recover from around 6%, while the second-ranked firm's net profit is only 1%, illustrating the resilience of core indices' ROE [4][5].

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company has shown steady performance despite a challenging market environment, with revenue for the first three quarters reaching 18.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.462 billion yuan, down 27.45% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights opportunities for industry consolidation in the spandex and adipic acid sectors, driven by weak demand and price pressures, which may lead to the exit of underperforming capacities [2][8]. - The company’s cash flow quality has significantly improved, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 198.65% to 2.931 billion yuan [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 26.931 billion yuan, with a decline to 24.977 billion yuan in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 28.763 billion yuan in 2026E and 31.927 billion yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.220 billion yuan for 2024A, decreasing to 2.015 billion yuan in 2025E, then increasing to 2.647 billion yuan in 2026E and 3.385 billion yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 0.45 yuan in 2024A, 0.41 yuan in 2025E, 0.53 yuan in 2026E, and 0.68 yuan in 2027E [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 20 in 2024A, increasing to 22 in 2025E, then decreasing to 17 in 2026E and 13 in 2027E [4]. Industry Insights - The spandex sector continues to face challenges, with the average market price dropping to 23,000 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, reflecting a decline of approximately 9.89% year-on-year [8]. - The adipic acid market remains weak, with the average price in Q3 2025 falling to 7,062 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 19.43% [8]. - The report notes that the shoe sole liquid segment is stabilizing, with steady demand despite a generally weak market [8]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned to leverage its technological advantages into scale advantages, with expectations of moving out of the current profit trough as market conditions improve [8]. The target price is set at 10.6 yuan, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [8].

Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 4.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in retail business in Yunnan and risk management in distribution [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 was 269 million CNY, down 8.17% year-on-year, with credit and asset impairment losses impacting nearly 15 million CNY [2] - Total cash dividends for 2025 amounted to nearly 300 million CNY, with a share buyback of 150 million CNY, of which 135 million CNY was financed through a special loan [2] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - Retail business, which includes retail pharmaceuticals (over 55% of retail revenue), saw a significant decline in Yunnan, while other regions maintained positive growth [3] - Distribution business faced a substantial drop in revenue due to risk management measures following the Kunming Minsheng Pharmaceutical incident, affecting various distribution categories [4] - The Chinese medicine industrial segment is focusing on formula granules, with nearly 660 products meeting local standards and around 400 products progressing towards national standards [4] - The healthcare business, although small, is growing rapidly, with the first centralized elderly care center achieving profitability and plans for a second center expected to open by the end of 2026 [4] Group 3: Store Network and Adjustments - The number of stores decreased from 11,498 at the beginning of the year to 11,230 by September 30, 2025, with 430 closures and 288 openings/migrations [5] - Yunnan has 5,521 stores (49% of total), with ongoing adjustments to enhance store efficiency and expand non-pharmaceutical categories [5] - By the end of 2025, the company plans to complete adjustments in 1,000 stores, focusing on health-related products and professional categories [5] Group 4: Strategic Insights and Future Plans - The company aims to optimize internal operations in response to external policy changes and macroeconomic factors affecting the retail environment [6] - The introduction of long-term care insurance presents significant opportunities for the healthcare business, with existing centers positioned to accommodate this demand [9] - Future investments will focus on regions like Southwest China and Hainan, with plans to enhance store density and service capabilities [10] - The company plans to promote community and home-based elderly care services, aligning with the preference of over 95% of seniors for home care [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, attributed to slower project execution due to tight funding from downstream government investments, but maintains a positive long-term outlook due to consistent order growth since Q2 2023 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.275 billion yuan, down 9.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, down 18.47% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 3.747 billion yuan, down 29.62% year-on-year and 20.98% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 23.67 million yuan, down 80.87% year-on-year and 83.54% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 12.64%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 9.92%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year and 4.27 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s expense ratio increased due to a significant drop in revenue, with the nine-month expense ratio at 8.27%, up 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, and Q3 expense ratio at 9.74%, up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 2.87%, down 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 net profit margin was 0.63%, down 1.69 percentage points year-on-year and 2.40 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of 619 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, an improvement of 102 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection/payment ratio of 107.9%/103.0% [3] - As of Q3 2025, accounts receivable and contract assets were 11.047 billion yuan and 9.636 billion yuan, respectively, showing a significant reduction in receivables [3] - The company maintained a healthy balance sheet with interest-bearing liabilities of only 730 million yuan and cash reserves of 4.912 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of 58.2%, down 2.15 percentage points year-on-year [3] Order Growth and Market Position - The company signed new orders worth 19.11 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with public decoration orders up 4.1% and residential orders down 18.0% [4] - The company has maintained positive order growth for ten consecutive quarters, indicating resilience in its market position [4] - As of Q3 2025, the total signed but uncompleted orders amounted to 19.3 billion yuan, providing a revenue safety cushion [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Future revenue growth forecasts have been adjusted downward due to slow project execution, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 reduced by 16.37%, 17.38%, and 18.48% respectively [5] - The company is assigned a 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x, with a target price adjustment to 4.12 yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous target of 4.31 yuan [5]