据自民党消息人士透露，日本议会原定于10月15日投票选出新首相，但由于执政联盟内部谈判激烈，投 票可能推迟。这一不确定性进一步加剧了日元的弱势表现，投资者对日本经济和货币政策的信心受到冲 击。 从技术面看，美元对日元汇率在突破151.00关键阻力后，连续测试153.00上方，显示多头趋势依旧稳 固。日线RSI指标显示汇价略有超买，短期可能出现温和调整，但整体结构仍指向上行通道。 周五（10月10日）欧洲交易时段，美元/日元震荡微跌，仍处于153关口下方，早些时候美元兑日元汇率 曾触及153.27，为2月中旬以来新高。因日本政局动荡，本周日元兑美元汇率重挫近4%，创下自2024年 10月初以来最大周线跌幅。 高市早苗周四表示，日本央行应独立制定货币政策，但需与政府目标保持一致。她强调不希望日元过度 下跌，但其言论未能提振市场对日元的信心。 交易员预计，日本央行12月加息的可能性仅为45%，而明确加息25个基点可能要等到明年3月。丹斯克 银行外汇研究员Mohamad Al-Saraf认为，日本央行本月可能选择按兵不动，但12月或将因通胀高企和低 利率环境而再次加息。他指出，日本通胀水平仍高于目标，利率却处于低位， ...

新华财经法兰克福10月9日电（记者尹亮）8日，德国经济与能源部、德国银行业协会分别发布秋季经济 形势预测报告，称德国经济将于明年实现较高增长，或将摆脱长期疲软状况。部分德国经济界人士指 出，此次经济复苏的主要驱动力并非德国传统优势的外贸出口，而是私人及公共消费和投资活动，同时 高度依赖政府支出带来的刺激，显示德国经济仍存在长期的结构性隐忧。 面对增长压力，新一届德国联邦政府大幅度增加财政支出，以此作为提振经济的重要选项。今年7月， 德国财政部宣布，联邦内阁已批准2026年联邦预算草案。根据草案内容，2026年德国联邦政府计划总支 出为5205亿欧元，比上一年增长3.5%；公共投资规模将达到1267亿欧元，再创历史新高。资金将重点 投向交通基础设施、住房建设、数字化发展和国防安全等领域。 德国政府支出增长将带来积极的刺激。德国银行业协会的预测报告显示，仅德国联邦政府财政方案一 项，就可能在2026年为德国经济增长贡献高达0.8个百分点。德国经济与能源部的报告也表明，今明两 年交替之际，受政府经济和财政政策措施支撑，德国国内经济活力预计进一步增强。 瑞银欧洲公司德国首席经济学家、德国银行业协会经济和货币政策委员会 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is facing a potential shutdown if bipartisan agreement on funding is not reached by midnight on September 30 [2][4] - The current political standoff is primarily centered around the Affordable Care Act, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse [4][5] - This shutdown could be different from previous ones due to the White House's directive for federal agencies to prepare for large-scale layoffs, potentially leading to permanent job losses [3][7] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass budget appropriations, leading to the cessation of non-essential services [3] - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced over 20 shutdowns since the 1970s, with the longest one occurring during Trump's first term, lasting 35 days [6][10] - The current political landscape, with the Republican party controlling Congress and the White House, complicates the passage of spending bills due to the need for Democratic support [4][5] Group 2: Implications of the Shutdown - If a shutdown occurs, hundreds of thousands of federal employees may face unpaid leave or be required to work without pay, impacting consumer spending and market confidence [9][11] - Essential services like Social Security and Medicare will continue, but other services may be delayed or interrupted, affecting various sectors [9][12] - The potential for long-term economic impacts exists, as prolonged shutdowns could disrupt market order and erode public trust [10][12] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Trump's administration may leverage the shutdown to expand executive power, potentially undermining congressional authority over fiscal matters [8] - The ongoing negotiations reflect significant divisions between the parties, with Democrats seeking immediate discussions on healthcare while Republicans push for a simple funding extension [4][5] - The outcome of this standoff could set a precedent for future budget negotiations and the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed. The latest economic data shows that the economic growth momentum continues to slow down, with fixed - asset investment, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment declining, and real - estate investment still having double - digit declines. Consumption repair is unstable, and deflation pressure persists. The economic fundamentals are still weak, and incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints such as investment, consumption, and debt resolution risks [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fiscal Revenue Growth Improves Continuously, Tax Revenue Increases Slightly - General public budget revenue growth rate continues to rise, with local fiscal revenue being the main contributor and the drag from central fiscal revenue weakening. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue reached 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, exceeding the annual budget target by 0.1%. The central fiscal revenue has been improving, with the decline narrowing for 6 consecutive months, while local fiscal revenue has maintained positive growth. However, the revenue completion progress is slow [12]. - Tax revenue turns to a slight increase, and non - tax revenue continues to shrink. From January to August, the cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turned positive to 0.02%, rising for 6 consecutive months. Securities trading stamp duty contributes significantly, while consumption tax, real - estate tax, and foreign - trade tax are still drags. The growth rate of non - tax revenue dropped to 1.5%, declining for 6 consecutive months [17]. 3.2 Fiscal Expenditure Growth Declines, Infrastructure Expenditure Growth Declines Significantly - Fiscal expenditure growth has declined across the board, with both central and local expenditures hitting new lows this year. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 3.1%, with the increase narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The expenditure rhythm is the lowest in the same period in the past five years. The growth rate of central expenditure is still relatively high but has declined by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while local expenditure growth has declined for 4 consecutive months, mainly affected by factors such as the decline in land transfer income [22]. - In terms of expenditure structure, people's livelihood expenditure has slowed down from a high level, and infrastructure expenditure has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of social security and employment expenditure has slightly increased, while the growth rates of education and health - care expenditure have slightly decreased. The growth rate declines of infrastructure - related expenditures such as agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban - rural community affairs have expanded [26]. 3.3 Government - Fund Revenue and Expenditure Growth Slows, Special Bond Issuance Speeds Up but Remains Slow - Government - fund revenue and expenditure growth is weak. The revenue side is under continuous pressure, with the year - on - year growth rate of government - fund revenue from January to August being - 1.4%, and the decline expanding. The expenditure side growth rate has marginally declined. The revenue growth rate is significantly lower than the expenditure growth rate, and the "mismatch" between revenue and expenditure progress highlights the debt - resolution pressure [28]. - Local government special bond issuance has accelerated but remains slow. From January to August, the completion progress of new special bonds was about 74.2%, an increase of about 11 percentage points from the previous value, but still 15 percentage points lower than the average in the same period from 2022 - 2024. The slow issuance is mainly restricted by debt resolution and tightened access to projects [28]. 3.4 Incremental Policies Are Approaching The economic repair momentum is weakening, and incremental policies are urgently needed to be stepped up. The economic growth momentum continues to slow down, consumption repair is unstable, and the economic fundamentals are still weak. Incremental policies need to be quickly implemented to address multiple constraints [6][34].

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

申万宏源宏观 数据点评|财政支出趋弱，关注加码可能（申万宏观·赵伟团队） 原创 阅读全文 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 179,324 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - In August 2025, general fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to July[5] - General fiscal expenditure in August 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from July[5] Budget Completion Rates - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[5] - General fiscal expenditure budget completion was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8%[5] Government Debt and Fiscal Support - As of the end of August, net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%[2] - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing for general fiscal expenditure is nearing its end, indicating a potential decline in fiscal support for the economy[2] - The issuance of new government debt is approaching its limit, which may hinder the maintenance of high growth rates in general fiscal expenditure going forward[11] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the decline in general fiscal revenue growth[3] - The budget completion rate for government fund revenue in August was 5.3%, lower than the five-year average of 7.1%[18] Economic Growth Implications - The decline in government fund revenue and the nearing end of debt support may put pressure on future economic growth[11] - Retail growth related to "old-for-new" programs has slowed since June, impacting equipment purchase investment growth as well[11]

Group 1: Revenue Performance - In August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1.24 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2%, with both central and local revenue increasing by 2% [1] - For the first eight months, the total general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue for the first eight months amounted to 12.11 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in cumulative tax revenue [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.2%, 2%, and 8.9% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax also achieved positive growth with an increase of 0.3%, highlighting the recovery in key sectors and industries [1] Group 3: Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure for the first eight months was 17.93 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 10%, while education expenditures increased by 5.6%, reflecting a strong focus on key areas [2] - The acceleration in the issuance and utilization of bond funds contributed to a 30% growth in government fund budget expenditures [2] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The overall fiscal performance for the first eight months is stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The government aims to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction, focusing on expanding effective demand and improving livelihoods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's fiscal revenue continues to show a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 2% in August, totaling 1.24 trillion yuan [1] - In the first eight months, the total fiscal revenue reached 14.82 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3%, which is an improvement of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous seven months [1] - Tax revenue has turned positive for the first time, with a total of 12.11 trillion yuan collected, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Public budget expenditure also maintained growth, with a total of 17.93 trillion yuan spent in the first eight months, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - Key areas such as social security and employment saw a significant increase in spending, with a growth rate of 10%, while education spending grew by 5.6% [2] - The acceleration of bond fund issuance and utilization has contributed to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [2] Group 3 - Overall, the fiscal operation in the first eight months has been stable, with an optimized revenue structure and strong support for key expenditure areas [3] - The articles emphasize the need to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to enhance economic and fiscal interaction through effective demand expansion and improvement of people's livelihoods [3]

9月17日，财政部发布统计数据显示，8月份全国一般公共预算收入延续增长态势，累计增幅继续回升。 8月份，全国一般公共预算收入1.24万亿元，同比增长2%；其中，中央、地方收入增幅均为2%。 统计显示，前8个月，全国一般公共预算收入14.82万亿元，增长0.3%，增幅比前7个月提高0.2个百分 点。税收收入累计增幅由负转正。前8个月，全国税收收入12.11万亿元，比去年同期多26亿元，微增 0.02%，累计增幅首次转正。其中，国内增值税、国内消费税、个人所得税分别增长3.2%、2%、 8.9%，增幅保持平稳；企业所得税增长0.3%，累计增幅实现转正。 "财政收入结构进一步优化，对于财政的可持续性将发挥积极作用。主要税种中，国内增值税、国内消 费税、个人所得税、印花税等保持较快增长，显示出经济回升向好和资本市场活跃的带动效应。"北京 国家会计学院副院长、教授李旭红说。 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任、研究员何代欣分析，企业所得税实现正增长的意义很 大，关键领域、重点行业和重点企业的增长功不可没；文化体育娱乐业等方面的税收增速加快，受益于 提振消费政策的作用和服务业的增长。 支出方面，全国一般公共预算支 ...