这项政策现在还没有完全确定，欧盟计划在12月召开会议，讨论具体的细则，看看是2026年才开始执 行，还是再次推迟。对于我们来说，未来海淘可能会变得更加昂贵，但那些中国商家很可能会迅速想出 新的解决办法，因为做生意的人总能找到出路。 有趣的是，欧盟负责贸易的谢夫乔维奇表示，这项政策是为了保护欧洲企业，但大家都能看出来，最终 买单的还是普通消费者。以前一百五十欧元可以买很多东西，现在同样的钱可能买不了那么多。欧洲人 心里肯定会疑惑，是否值得花这么多钱，而那些大型商场和公司反而可能松了一口气，毕竟这样一来， 竞争压力会减轻。 要说这背后没有其他动机，谁会相信呢？欧盟表面上看似是在讲公平，实际上可能 是在试图压制中国电商的增长。Temu和Shein在全球的成功，连亚马逊和沃尔玛这样的巨头也感受到了 威胁。如果欧盟加税，短期内确实会给中国卖家带来麻烦，但他们可能会通过调整物流方式或者改变经 营策略，找到应对的办法。 最近欧盟出台了一项新规定，计划对我们平时买的小包裹征税。以前那些单价不到150欧元的小物品可 以免税，原定是到2028年才开始执行这个政策，现在突然决定提前到明年开始实行。法国、德国等国家 的财政部长召开会 ...

2025年1月20日特朗普第二次就职后，立刻重启贸易保护政策，对全球多个国家商品加征关税。中国关税一度高达145%，后来降到47%左右。印度这边很多 人一开始觉得机会来了，美国企业肯定要找中国替代品，印度劳动力多、英语好、民主国家，制造业能借机大发展。 结果呢，印度自己也挨了重锤，50%关税砸下来，出口商叫苦连天。这事儿说白了，就是新德里算盘打得响，但特朗普的关税刀不认人，谁贸易逆差大谁就 倒霉。 2025年2月13日，莫迪赶紧飞华盛顿见特朗普，两人握手合影，宣布启动双边贸易谈判，目标把贸易额从1900亿美元冲到5000亿美元。 班加罗鲁和海得拉巴的园区负责人天天看数据，等着苹果、特斯拉之类的大厂把生产线搬过来。结果特朗普压根没把印度当例外，4月开始全球互惠关税， 印度商品先吃25%。 7月30日又加25%惩罚性关税，就因为印度继续买俄罗斯便宜油。8月27日50%关税正式生效，孟买港口集装箱堆成山，出口商直接傻眼。这50%关税不是闹 着玩的，印度对美出口纺织品、珠宝、工程产品一下子贵了半截，美国买家转头找越南、墨西哥下单。 印度企业主算账发现，原本薄利多销的生意直接亏本，工厂开工率掉到六七成，好多工人回家待着 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "tariff dividends" to American citizens raises questions about the feasibility and implications of such a plan, particularly regarding funding sources and potential economic consequences [1][22]. Funding Sources - Trump's claim that the funds will come from increased tariff revenues is based on the U.S. Treasury's report indicating a record $195 billion in tariff income for FY2025, a 150% increase from FY2024 [3]. - However, the actual daily tariff revenue is approximately $5.3 million, contradicting Trump's assertion of $2 billion per day [3]. Financial Viability - With over 220 million low- to middle-income adults in the U.S., distributing $2,000 each would cost around $440 billion, and a broader coverage could push the total to $600 billion, significantly exceeding current tariff revenues [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has suggested that the "dividends" may not be direct cash payments but rather tax reductions, indicating a shift from Trump's initial cash distribution narrative [5][7]. Legal and Economic Concerns - Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement tariffs raises constitutional questions, with the Supreme Court currently reviewing the legality of these actions [7]. - The potential for inflation to rise again due to large-scale fiscal stimulus is a concern, especially with current inflation rates around 3%, which are still above the Federal Reserve's target [9][11]. Political Implications - Politically, the proposal may resonate with voters facing rising living costs, as it mirrors past strategies used during the pandemic to gain electoral support [13]. - Trump's narrative of "America first" suggests that foreign entities are funding these dividends, but the reality of who bears the economic burden is more complex [14]. Economic Impact - Tariffs, while generating short-term revenue, may harm U.S. businesses in the long run, with estimates indicating over $80 billion in losses for American companies in 2025 due to increased costs from tariffs [16]. - The retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries have diminished the competitiveness of U.S. products globally, leading to a potential restructuring of supply chains away from the U.S. [18][20]. Conclusion - The logic behind Trump's "tariff dividends" appears flawed, as the funding is insufficient to support the proposed plan, and the broader economic implications could lead to higher prices and reduced purchasing power for consumers [22][23].

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨6日在总理府主持召开"钢铁峰会"，与会者包括来自钢铁企业、工会及多个联 邦州的高级代表。此次会议旨在探讨德国钢铁行业的困境及未来发展路径。 默茨在会后指出，德国钢铁行业正陷入"一场威胁生存的危机"，公平贸易的时代已经结束。面对国际市 场变化，尤其是美国加征关税对全球贸易格局的冲击，德国乃至欧洲的钢铁产业亟需切实的贸易保护。 他承诺将在欧盟层面积极推动这一议题。 会议期间，业界代表提出在政府采购中优先使用欧洲和德国生产的钢材的诉求。默茨对此表示赞同。他 表示，这与德国以往坚持的"开放市场、公平竞争"理念有所不同，但当下形势已经改变。面对美国加征 关税、国际竞争环境恶化，德国和欧盟必须保护本国市场和制造业，在公共建设和工业项目中给予本国 产钢材适当优先权。 在谈及能源问题时，默茨指出，稳定且可负担的能源供应对钢铁等高能耗产业至关重要。联邦政府将继 续推进能源转型、提高效率，并通过工业电价优惠、延长高耗能企业电价补偿等措施，切实减轻企业负 担。 此次"钢铁峰会"被视为德国政府与产业界共同寻求应对危机、强化本土工业竞争力的信号。 有报道称，当前，德国钢铁行业正面临来自亚洲的低价竞争，美国关税政 ...

德国政府召开"钢铁峰会" 默茨呼吁欧盟加强本土市场保护 会议期间，业界代表提出在政府采购中优先使用欧洲和德国生产的钢材的诉求。默茨对此表示赞同。他 表示，这与德国以往坚持的"开放市场、公平竞争"理念有所不同，但当下形势已经改变。面对美国加征 关税、国际竞争环境恶化，德国和欧盟必须保护本国市场和制造业，在公共建设和工业项目中给予本国 产钢材适当优先权。 在谈及能源问题时，默茨指出，稳定且可负担的能源供应对钢铁等高能耗产业至关重要。联邦政府将继 续推进能源转型、提高效率，并通过工业电价优惠、延长高耗能企业电价补偿等措施，切实减轻企业负 担。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社柏林11月6日电 德国总理弗里德里希·默茨6日在总理府主持召开"钢铁峰会"，与会者包括来自钢 铁企业、工会及多个联邦州的高级代表。此次会议旨在探讨德国钢铁行业的困境及未来发展路径。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 默茨在会后指出，德国钢铁行业正陷入"一场威胁生存的危机"，公平贸易的时代已经结束。面对国际市 场变化，尤其是美国加征关税对全球贸易格局的冲击，德国乃至欧洲的钢铁产业亟需切实的贸易保护。 他承诺将在欧盟层面积极推动这一议题。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The third quarter EBITDA per ton was $111, which is 25% above the historical average margin, indicating structural improvements in the company's financial performance [3][4] - Free cash flow for the first nine months was approximately $0.5 billion positive, despite nearly $1 billion invested in strategic growth projects [4][5] - The company expects to capture $0.7 billion in structural EBITDA improvement this year, with a medium-term impact of $2.1 billion remaining unchanged [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record levels of shipments at Calvert, contributing positively to North American operations despite challenges in Mexico [23][24] - The company anticipates normal seasonal improvements in European volumes and higher iron ore shipments from strategic projects in Liberia [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects imports in Europe to decline by about 40%, allowing it to capture a larger market share [16] - Demand in India remains strong, while Brazil faces challenges from rising imports and low prices, although anti-dumping measures are expected to have a positive impact [62] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a three-year transformation program aimed at achieving zero fatalities and serious injuries, with progress already observed [3] - The company is actively enabling the energy transition by supplying steel for new energy systems and investing in high-quality electrical steels [7] - The company plans to continue implementing its capital return policies, having grown dividends at a compound rate of 16% over the past five years [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The outlook for the business has improved compared to three months ago, with expectations for healthier capacity utilization in the European steel sector [5][6] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to manage working capital effectively, anticipating a significant release in Q4 [51][52] - The company remains optimistic about the demand recovery in 2026, supported by lower interest rates and improving PMIs in Europe [12][28] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing budget discussions for 2026 and beyond, maintaining a CapEx range of $4.5 billion to $5 billion [27] - The company is committed to maintaining production in Ukraine despite challenges, focusing on managing high energy costs [63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What unusual or exceptional costs should be considered for 2026? - Management indicated that there are no significant changes expected regarding tariffs, and losses in Mexico are not anticipated to recur in 2026 [11][13] Question: How much can production be flexed in Europe if imports decline? - Management stated that they expect to supply the market effectively, with current capacity exceeding 31 million tons [16] Question: What are the moving parts for Q4 by division? - Key factors include seasonal improvements in European volumes, higher iron ore shipments, and expected lower pricing in North America [20][21] Question: How is the performance of Dofasco? - Dofasco remains profitable and is considered one of the best facilities globally [73] Question: What is the company's stance on capital allocation in Europe? - Management emphasized that a sustainable framework would allow for future investments in Europe [36] Question: What is the outlook for working capital in Q4? - A significant release of working capital is expected, driven by seasonal factors and operational adjustments [51][52] Question: How is the company managing tariff costs with automakers? - Management noted ongoing contract renewals with OEMs and a stable volume outlook for automotive [45] Question: What is the company's view on the situation in Brazil and India? - The company remains bullish on Brazil despite import pressures and is optimistic about strong demand in India [62] Question: What is the company's approach to CO2 emissions and free allocations? - Management indicated that they do not expect significant losses in free emissions allocations and highlighted the importance of CBAM for competitiveness [90][88]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is seeking to establish a "steel alliance" with the US and EU to protect their steel industries from the impacts of global overcapacity, reflecting the struggles of the UK economy in the post-Brexit trade environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Steel Industry Challenges - The UK steel industry is facing a crisis, with half of the steel companies effectively under state control and the remaining ones in precarious situations [3] - The EU plans to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel, which poses a significant threat to the UK steel sector, as 78% of UK steel exports go to the EU, valued at approximately £3 billion annually [2][3] - The UK government announced a £2.5 billion plan to support the domestic steel industry, focusing on maintaining global competitiveness and transitioning to greener production methods [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - The proposed "steel alliance" aims to impose common tariffs on imports from outside the group while allowing zero or reduced tariffs for member countries [4] - The EU's steel tariffs are seen as a measure to protect the European steel industry and related jobs, with Germany acknowledging shared interests with the UK in addressing global steel overcapacity [5][6] - The EU steel industry is facing a dual challenge of enhancing competitiveness and reducing carbon emissions, with significant declines in revenue reported, particularly in Germany [6] Group 3: Global Context and Trade Dynamics - The global steel overcapacity reached 600 million tons last year, projected to increase to 721 million tons by 2027, with the EU importing steel from various countries including Turkey, South Korea, and China [6][7] - The US has expressed concerns over Chinese steel production capacity, indicating a need for coordinated efforts among Western nations to address this issue [6] - The EU's steel tariffs have drawn criticism from other sectors, such as the automotive industry, which fears inflationary impacts due to increased steel prices [9][10]

Core Points - The trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada was ignited by a controversial television advertisement from the Ontario provincial government, which criticized U.S. tariff policies and used a speech by former President Ronald Reagan [1][10] - The U.S. government responded with a threat to impose a 10% tariff, which is higher than what Canada currently pays, emphasizing the potential economic impact on American consumers [1][2] Economic Impact - The proposed 10% tariff could lead to hundreds of billions of dollars in additional costs, which would ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers, resulting in price increases of 5%-10% for various automotive products [4][2] - Canada's GDP contracted by 1.6% in Q2 2025, largely due to a significant drop in exports, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors, which are heavily reliant on the U.S. market [6] - The Ontario province, home to over 70% of Canada's auto parts manufacturers, is experiencing order cancellations and production cuts due to concerns over the tariff [6][8] Industry Responses - The American Automotive Manufacturers Association has warned that increased tariffs would undermine the price competitiveness of U.S. automakers in the global market [7] - The Canadian Steel Association predicts that prolonged tariffs could lead to nearly 20% of the Canadian steel industry's capacity being idle, affecting over 15,000 jobs [8] Political Dynamics - The advertisement's timing during a major U.S. sporting event was seen as a strategic move to influence public opinion against U.S. tariffs, which the U.S. government labeled as "deliberate fraud" [2][10] - The Ontario government has expressed a desire to maintain pressure on the U.S. regarding tariff impacts, while the Canadian federal government has advocated for dialogue to resolve trade differences [12][13] International Reactions - Mexico's economy minister has warned that escalating trade tensions could destabilize the North American supply chain, urging for dialogue rather than unilateral actions [20] - The European Union criticized the U.S. for undermining international trade rules through unilateral tariffs, raising concerns about a potential global trade protectionism wave [20] Future Considerations - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court's upcoming ruling on the constitutionality of presidential tariff powers will significantly influence the future of U.S.-Canada trade relations [22][15] - Canada is looking to diversify its trade partnerships beyond the U.S., aiming to double its non-U.S. export share over the next decade as a strategic response to the current trade tensions [20][26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - GrafTech achieved a 9% year-over-year increase in sales volume, reaching nearly 29,000 metric tons in Q3 2025 [4][14] - The company generated positive adjusted EBITDA of $13 million for the quarter, compared to a negative $6 million in the prior year [24] - Net cash from operating activities was $25 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $18 million, strengthening liquidity to $384 million as of the end of September [6][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales volume in the U.S. grew by 53% year-over-year in Q3, contributing to a total year-to-date increase of 39% [5][15] - The average selling price for the third quarter was approximately $4,200 per metric ton, representing a 7% decline compared to the prior year [16][24] - Cash costs per metric ton were $3,795, reflecting a 10% year-over-year decline [18][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global steel production outside of China was approximately 206 million tons in Q3 2025, up nearly 2% year-over-year [7][8] - In the U.S., steel production grew by 2% year-to-date compared to 2024, while EU steel output decreased by 4% year-to-date [8][9] - World Steel projects a 1.8% growth in U.S. steel demand for 2026 and a 3.2% growth in Europe [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - GrafTech aims to increase sales volume and market share while improving average pricing by shifting geographic sales mix to higher price regions [29][30] - The company is focused on disciplined, value-focused growth rather than volume for volume's sake, especially in light of challenging pricing dynamics [15][16] - Long-term, GrafTech is bullish on the shift towards electric arc furnace steelmaking, which is expected to drive demand for graphite electrodes [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about early signs of recovery in the steel market, driven by infrastructure spending and trade actions [42][43] - The company remains committed to maintaining a culture of safety and achieving zero injuries [12][13] - Management highlighted the importance of trade protection measures and their potential positive impact on the steel industry and graphite electrode demand [10][32] Other Important Information - GrafTech's liquidity position includes $178 million in cash and $107 million available under its revolving credit facility [26][27] - The company is on track for a cumulative reduction of over 30% in cash costs per metric ton since the end of 2023 [6][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Should we expect any other kind of deferred revenue benefits? - Management indicated that the recent deferred revenue recognition was a one-time event and no further benefits are expected [39] Question: What are the current demand and price environment dynamics? - Management noted that the market is oversupplied, making it challenging to push pricing, but there are signs of positive momentum in steel demand [41][42] Question: What is the status of GrafTech's engagement in the battery-related materials market? - Management stated that while there is excess capacity, the market is still developing, and they are positioned to support raw material supply for battery production [46][47] Question: Have the tariffs on Indian material had any impact on imports? - Management expressed confidence that the tariffs would support their market position and negotiations moving forward [54] Question: Any updates on public-private partnerships? - Management highlighted the importance of a healthy electrode industry to support steelmaking and expressed confidence in GrafTech's role in the domestic supply chain [58][60] Question: Has U.S. pricing improved sequentially from the prior quarter? - Management indicated that U.S. pricing is flat to slightly up compared to the prior quarter, with annual contracts limiting price movement [64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - GrafTech International achieved a 9% year-over-year increase in sales volume, reaching nearly 29,000 metric tons in Q3 2025 [4][14] - The company generated positive adjusted EBITDA of $13 million for the quarter, compared to a negative $6 million in the prior year [24] - Net cash from operating activities was $25 million, with adjusted free cash flow of $18 million, strengthening liquidity to $384 million as of the end of September [6][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales volume in the U.S. grew by 53% year-over-year in Q3, contributing to a cumulative sales volume growth of over 20% since the end of 2023 [5][15] - The average selling price for the third quarter was approximately $4,200 per metric ton, representing a 7% decline compared to the prior year [16][24] - Cash costs per metric ton were $3,795, reflecting a 10% year-over-year decline, with expectations for a full-year decline of approximately 10% in cash COGS per metric ton for 2025 [19][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global steel production outside of China was approximately 206 million tons in Q3 2025, up nearly 2% year-over-year [7] - In the U.S., steel production grew 2% year-to-date compared to 2024, while EU steel output decreased by 4% year-to-date [8][9] - World Steel projects a 1.8% growth in U.S. steel demand for 2026 and a 3.2% growth in Europe, driven by infrastructure investment and defense spending [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing sales volume and market share, improving average pricing by shifting geographic sales mix to higher price regions, and reducing costs [29][30] - GrafTech is committed to serving customers with excellence and building long-term partnerships based on performance and reliability [11][30] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expected growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production, particularly in the U.S. and EU [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential recovery in the steel market, citing early signs of rebound and positive momentum in steel production and demand [7][29] - The company remains bullish on the structural tailwinds supporting the shift towards EAF steelmaking, with significant new capacity planned in the U.S. [30][31] - Management highlighted the importance of trade protection measures and their potential positive impact on the steel industry and graphite electrode demand [10][32] Other Important Information - The company reported a net loss of $28 million for the third quarter, an improvement from a net loss of $36 million in the prior year [24] - GrafTech's liquidity position includes $178 million in cash and $107 million available under its revolving credit facility, with no borrowings outstanding [26][27] - The company is committed to maintaining a culture of safety, aiming for zero injuries and strong safety performance [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Should we expect any other kind of deferred revenue benefits? - Management indicated that no further deferred revenue is expected, as the recent recognition was a one-time event related to a long-standing receivable [39] Question: What are the current demand and price environment dynamics? - Management noted that the market is oversupplied, making it challenging to push pricing, but expressed optimism for future pricing improvements due to positive momentum in the steel industry [41][42] Question: What is the status of GrafTech's engagement in the battery-related materials market? - Management stated that while there is excess capacity, the market is still developing, and they are positioned to support partners in the battery supply chain [44][45] Question: Have the tariffs on Indian material impacted imports into the U.S.? - Management believes the tariffs present an opportunity for GrafTech, as they expect to continue gaining market share in the U.S. [47][48] Question: Any updates on public-private partnerships? - Management emphasized the importance of a healthy electrode industry to support the steel sector and expressed confidence in GrafTech's role in the domestic supply chain [51][54]