受人工智能投资气氛等多项因素的支持，股票市场自9月初起表现强劲。东方汇理资管认为，重要的考 量因素在于：人工智能刺激企业盈利的程度，以及这些行业的合理估值溢价。因此，尽管这类技术具备 提升生产力的长期潜力，但无意支付过高的估值。东方汇理资管的目标仍然是识别在盈利、估值和产品 特色方面取得卓越平衡的企业。东方汇理资管在欧洲、英国、日本和新兴市场，以及美国价值股中发现 更多此类企业。基于全球贸易不明朗因素，东方汇理资管正在这些地区寻找较受内需影响的公司。 美国经济至今仍然保持强韧，但贸易政策和关税对消费及通胀造成影响，令前景更为复杂。东方汇理资 管表示，随着美国关税的影响逐渐浮现，美国的消费压力可能影响当地经济活动。另一方面，尽管通胀 预期仍然受控，但扩张性财政政策、美联储倾向降息，以及美国关税转化为实体经济通胀，均可能改变 这个情况。因此，收益率曲线将进一步走峭。尽管如此，整体经济尚未陷入衰退。欧洲的通胀似乎并未 带来问题，但内需可能成为隐忧。欧洲的出口压力显而易见，本地需求亦可能略为脆弱。 东方汇理资管称，全球股市在10月份升至历史新高，主要受惠于美国人工智能业的强劲升势、美联储的 降息预期，以及德国财政扩张 ...

期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 德意志银行指出，近期推动金价调整的发达市场黄金 ETF 抛售潮已呈强弩之末态势。过去8个交易日 里，ETF 投资者有7天在减持头寸，但本轮抛售累计规模已达4-5月抛售总量的86%，意味着大部分卖压 已释放。 本轮抛售最猛烈的10月27日(减持44.9万金衡盎司)，发生在金价单日最大跌幅4天之后，这说明是金价下 跌引发ETF资金流出，而非ETF抛售主导金价下跌，也 ...

英国政府在声明中强调其对钢铁行业的支持，包括为英国钢企争取进入美国市场的优惠待遇，并称将继 续探索更强有力的贸易措施，以防止"不公平行为"冲击本国钢铁生产。"我们正持续与欧盟进行接触， 讨论其最新宣布的措施。" 知情人士未透露英国可能采取的具体反制手段，但任何升级都将标志着英国在过去几年中罕见地走向贸 易对抗。此前，英国一直试图避免卷入由特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球性贸易摩擦。 英国政府一位官员表示，欧盟提高对英国钢铁的关税，违反了双方今年 5 月达成的"重置协议"精神。当 时斯塔默与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在伦敦联合声明，强调两方致力于"自由、可持续、公平、开放的 贸易"及供应链安全。 欧盟方面则回应称，将与所有自贸伙伴"本着诚意"沟通相关措施及其影响，并继续强调寻求解决全球钢 铁产能过剩问题的"集体方案"。 智通财经APP获悉，英国政府正在研究在首相斯塔默无法与欧盟达成缓和钢铁关税影响的协议时，采取 反制措施，以应对欧盟拟议的钢铁保护升级。据知情人士透露，英国国内金属行业警告称，欧盟的计划 可能引发英国钢铁业"历史上最严重的危机"。 欧盟上月提出，将现有外来钢铁的免关税配额削减近一半，并把超额部分的关税提高 ...

2024年12月初，特朗普和加拿大总理特鲁多见面，本来谈边境安全和贸易逆差，结果特朗普直接甩出狠话：如果加拿大管不好边境非法移民和毒品流入，美 国就从2025年1月起对加拿大所有商品加25%关税。 两国边境线长8891公里，大多是湖泊森林。数据显示，2024年通过加拿大进入美国的芬太尼等毒品案子超过10万起，主要走铁路集装箱，检查率低得可怜。 特朗普团队亮出报告，说加拿大边境局对火车检查几乎等于零，导致美国中西部毒品泛滥。 在2024年底到2025年，特朗普接连放出几个大招，直接搅动了国际格局。 他先是说加拿大该并入美国当第51个州，然后又盯上巴拿马运河，要收回控制权，最后还重提收购格陵兰岛的事。 结果，贸易摩擦升级，盟友关系紧张，中东和亚太地区冲突加剧，世界经济晃荡得像过山车。 贸易上，美国对加拿大逆差600亿美元，主要在汽车和木材，特朗普要加拿大多买美国石油天然气，但加拿大自己产量够用。 会上，特朗普突然说加拿大干脆加入美国当第51州，特鲁多还能当州长。加拿大政府当场否认，但特朗普不罢休，12月下旬在推特上又提一次，2025年1月 就职演讲里重申。 2月1日，关税真落实了，加拿大汽车出口成本涨15%，通用 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant shift in the U.S.-China soybean trade dynamics, illustrating how the U.S. soybean industry has faced severe challenges due to China's pivot towards South American suppliers, particularly Brazil and Argentina [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - In 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China reached 74.65 million tons, accounting for 71% of China's total soybean imports, surpassing the U.S. as the largest supplier [4]. - Argentina's decision to eliminate soybean export taxes in September 2025 led to a surge in orders from China, with 1.3 million tons ordered, nearly one-third of Argentina's total exports to China last year [4]. - China's logistics enhancements, including the opening of the QianKai Port in Peru, have reduced shipping times for Brazilian soybeans to Asia by seven days, further solidifying its diversified supply chain [4]. Group 2: Technological and Regulatory Measures - China has implemented a blockchain traceability system that successfully intercepted 300,000 tons of U.S. soybeans attempting to misrepresent their origin, highlighting the effectiveness of its regulatory measures [6]. - The promotion of domestic feed soybean meal reduction technology is projected to decrease soybean demand by 11 million tons annually, equivalent to one-third of the U.S. soybean exports to China in previous years [6]. Group 3: U.S. Industry Challenges - In the summer of 2025, the U.S. soybean shipment volume to China was recorded at "0.0," indicating a complete halt in exports, which has severely impacted U.S. soybean farmers [7]. - The U.S. soybean export volume to China in the first half of 2025 plummeted by 85% year-on-year, totaling less than 3 million tons [7]. - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing a surge in bankruptcies, with a 55% increase in farm bankruptcies in the Midwest, as farmers struggle with unsold soybeans and plummeting prices [9]. Group 4: Political and Market Responses - The Trump administration's failure to deliver promised agricultural subsidies of $12-13 billion has left most soybean farmers without support, exacerbating their financial struggles [9]. - Despite the challenges, China signed an intention order for 870,000 tons of soybeans during the 2025 Import Expo, indicating a cautious approach to re-engaging with U.S. suppliers [9][10]. - The U.S. attempts to diversify its soybean markets have been largely unsuccessful, with traditional markets like Mexico and Japan unable to absorb the volume lost from China, and emerging markets already dominated by South American competitors [12]. Group 5: Global Agricultural Landscape - The ongoing trade tensions reflect a profound transformation in the global agricultural landscape, with China moving towards a more secure and diversified food supply chain, reducing its reliance on a single source [13].

在焦急等待近半个月后，韩国与美国终于就关税协定细则的说明书"虽迟但到"。 据央视新闻报道，韩国总统李在明11月14日宣布，韩国和美国就确定关税及安保协商达成一致。此外， 韩国还将与美国在造船、人工智能和核工业方面"建立新的伙伴关系"。 仅在今年第三季度，现代汽车和起亚汽车集团的数据显示，关税支出就分别达到1.82万亿韩元（约合 12.4亿美元）和1.23万亿韩元。受此影响，现代汽车营业利润同比下降29.2%，起亚汽车则同比大跌 49.2%。因此，韩国产业界认为，尽早确定15%关税税率的生效日期，将直接影响车企未来数月乃至全 年的盈利表现。 根据韩国产业通商资源部长官金 正宽本月4日在国务会议上表示，韩国政府正推动将关税削减追溯 至"提交对美投资基金相关法案的当月1日"生效，也就是11月1日。11月1日后已缴纳的超额关税将予以 退还。 此外，协议细节还显示，韩国承诺的3500亿美元对美投资计划分"两步走"，其中的2000亿美元为现金投 资，类似于日本的安排，每年投资上限为200亿美元，投资承诺将在2029年1月前最终敲定。剩余1500亿 美元将用于造船项目。14日，李在明还表示，韩美商定今后持续优化相关制度，争 ...

Core Insights - The European business lobby group has released a survey indicating that the negative impact of U.S. tariff policies and escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions on European companies is expected to significantly worsen by 2026 [1] Economic Impact - The survey suggests that due to proactive measures taken by companies, such as adjusting supply chains and diversifying export markets, the immediate impact of trade friction on the Eurozone's economic growth is relatively limited, reducing growth by approximately 0.03 percentage points this year [1] - However, by 2026, as temporary coping strategies lose effectiveness and the effects of contract renegotiations and investment delays become apparent, the trade tensions are projected to significantly hinder Eurozone economic growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - The organization warns that if the U.S. and EU fail to reach a resolution on key trade disputes by the end of this year, there may be a chain reaction leading to further reductions in corporate investment, decreased capacity utilization, and pressure on the job market next year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend. Currently, domestic and international macro - factors are mixed. Concerns about the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decline in China's export growth, and geopolitical factors will continue to affect the commodity market, especially the crude oil market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. Industrial products fluctuated, and agricultural products declined from high levels. The US government shutdown in the first half - week led to risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down global asset prices, while the fall of the US dollar index in the second half - week relieved market pressure and most commodities rebounded [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: The continuous shutdown of the US federal government may impact people's livelihood and society. On October 31, the SRF injected huge liquidity into the market. In October, US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs, the ISM services PMI reached 52.4, but the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100. The eurozone's October composite PMI rose to 52.5, and the service industry PMI reached 53, indicating a stable economy, which may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders on October 30 eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased significantly from October 26 to November 2. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [3]. - **Commodity Outlook**: The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend due to mixed domestic and international macro - factors, including the US government shutdown, China's export situation, and geopolitical factors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The ADP data showed that US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs in October, the largest increase since July 2025. The 10 - month ISM services PMI was 52.4, a new eight - month high. However, the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100, leading to selling in US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SOFR rate soared 18 basis points to 4.22% [3][10]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.5, and the service industry PMI was 53, a 17 - month high. The economy showed stable expansion, with the service industry performing better than manufacturing, and significant economic differentiation among countries. This may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **OPEC+ Situation**: On November 2, OPEC+ announced production plans for 2026, with WTI showing certain changes in production and price expectations [21]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Foreign Trade Data**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased [26]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [29]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 7, the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 76%, and the POY operating rate was 90%. The national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain showed certain trends [32]. - **Automobile Data**: In October, the sales volume and year - on - year growth rate of automobile manufacturers showed certain changes, with different growth rates in different periods [41]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain trends, with price increases of 2.16% and 0.78% respectively [42].

深秋的北京，一架美国政府的专机悄然降落。2025年11月4日，由美国农业部高官率领的代表团踏上了 中国的土地，他们的行程表上核心议题明确：大豆。空气中弥漫着一种急切，这种急切源于一份暴跌的 贸易数据。 据英国《金融时报》报道，仅仅在今年前八个月，美国对华大豆出口规模相比去年同期萎缩了超过八 成。 美方代表团此行，迫切希望听到中方关于恢复大规模采购的明确承诺。然而，这颗看似普通的农产品， 早已不再是简单的商品买卖，其背后牵扯的关税壁垒与政治互信，使得这场会谈的每一句对话都重若千 钧。 大豆如何成为贸易博弈的筹码 回溯这场贸易风波的起点，美国特朗普政府以所谓的"芬太尼问题"为由，挥起关税大棒，对中国输美商 品加征了第一轮关税。中方的反应迅速且精准，将美国大豆列入加征关税的反制清单。这一举措直击美 国农业腹地。 与此同时，中国企业也将目光投向俄罗斯、阿根廷等新兴供应商，构建起更加分散的供应网络。在开拓 外部多元渠道的同时，中国内部的"大豆振兴计划"也在持续发力。 根据中国农业农村部公布的数据，2025年国内大豆产量预计达到2100万吨，实现了连续三年的稳定高 产。这虽不能完全满足国内巨大的需求，却夯实了保障基础供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market performance in the first year of Trump's second term closely mirrors that of his first term, with significant increases in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, and emerging markets outperforming the U.S. market, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. Market Performance - The past 12 months have shown similarities to 2017, with Bitcoin being the best-performing asset in both periods [4]. - Stocks have outperformed bonds during this time [5]. - Emerging markets, particularly China and Japan, have outperformed U.S. stocks, while European markets lagged [6]. - The dollar has declined in both periods [7]. Notable Differences - Gold prices have surged significantly this time, contrasting with the muted response during Trump's first term, while oil prices have dropped, reversing the trend of being one of the best-performing assets in 2016-2017 [8]. - There is a notable sector divergence this time, with technology stocks leading in the U.S., while materials, real estate, and energy sectors have declined. In Europe, financial and utility sectors performed well, but healthcare, real estate, and materials saw declines [8]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that the second year of a presidential term is typically the worst for U.S. stocks, with the average and median returns for the S&P 500 being the lowest [13]. - The experience from Trump's first term supports this pattern, as assets that performed well in the first year, such as Bitcoin and emerging markets, saw declines in the second year, accompanied by increased market volatility [16].