南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者李依农 编者按： 步入2026年，世界正站在新一轮历史转折点上。多重经济周期叠加演进，结构性变革加速展开：全球增 长分化加剧，通胀与货币政策前景扑朔迷离，地缘政治博弈升温，产业链与国际秩序深度重塑，世界经 济运行逻辑正在发生深刻变化。在这一关键节点，中国迎来"十五五"规划的开局之年，其发展方向不仅 为自身发展描绘蓝图，还将对全球经济产生影响。 "连线2026：全球变局"汇聚全球顶尖经济学家、学者、投资者与政界领袖，立足时代前沿，纵论全球经 济走势、金融市场变局、世界秩序演进与中国发展路径。通过深度对话与前瞻洞见，本系列力图勾勒未 来数年的宏观图景，洞察决定世界发展的关键力量。 2025年，东盟+3地区在全球经济复杂多变的环境中表现出强大的韧性。 《全球财经连线》：总体来看，今年ASEAN+3地区的经济增长是否符合预期？ 何东：从整体来看，该地区经济表现依然稳健。与年初相比，我们已经上调了对区域经济增长的预测。 当然，在美国政府广泛对多国出口产品征收高额关税之初，市场曾一度面临不少担忧。 我认为，当时有两种力量同时在起作用。一方面，关税政策本身以及多轮谈判的进程带来了较大的不确 定 ...

完整报告获取：三个皮匠报告 2025年12月15日，高盛全球宏观研究团队发布了《2025：四大主题图解》年终特别报告，共49页。这份 报告通过大量图表和专家访谈，系统梳理了2025年影响全球经济走向的四大核心主题，堪称对未来一年 世界格局的"预警地图"。 主题一：关税浪潮与贸易震荡 主题二：AI狂欢与稳定币崛起 主题三：机构信誉遭遇"信任危机" ⚠️ 主题四：地缘裂痕与技术争霸 ⚔️ 市场现状：随着特朗普再次上任，美国贸易政策急剧转向，大幅提升关税，引发全球贸易关系紧 张和多轮谈判拉锯。 核心重点： 政策剧变：美国有效关税税率飙升，频繁对多国加征关税。 不确定性激增：贸易政策不确定性指数达到历史高位，企业决策难度加大。 衰退隐忧：历史表明，大规模贸易冲突常伴随经济衰退，市场担忧情绪蔓延。 各方态度：专家普遍认为，政策不确定性本身带来的伤害可能比关税规模更大，增加了经济预测 和商业规划的难度。 市场现状：AI投资热潮持续，企业应用加速，但泡沫担忧加剧；同时，稳定币因《GENIUS法 案》获得法律框架，迎来发展契机。 核心重点： AI投资火热：半导体、云计算等AI基础设施投资强劲，巨头资本开支巨大。 泡沫之争：" ...

路透社12月9日报道，加拿大笛卡尔物流系统集团（Descartes Systems Group）发布 数据显示，受货运需求疲软影响，美国11月集装箱进口量同比下降7.8%。数据显示， 2025年前11个月的进口总量仅比2024年同期高出0.1%，远低于今年早些时候近10%的增 幅，进一步显示出需求疲软和进口商的谨慎态度。特朗普政府对包括墨西哥和加拿大 在内的主要贸易伙伴反复无常地加征关税，扰乱了全球贸易。美国全国零售商联合会 （NRF）表示，目前零售库存充足，已为假日购物季做好准备，但贸易政策在2026年将 如何演变仍存在很大的不确定性。 （原标题：美国11月集装箱进口量下降） ...

一方面，需求侧动力不足，全球需求疲弱、消费与投资复苏乏力。报告指出，许多经济体国内支出低 迷，家庭购买力承压，尤其是高利率正在压制经济活动与国内需求，成为导致需求走弱、增长疲软的重 要原因，需求受到压制进一步导致全球制造业疲软且全球贸易动能不足。需求无法自发恢复，是增长缺 乏内生动力的首要原因。 另一方面，投资动力不足，主要体现为私人投资与固定资本形成偏弱。固定投资的疲软以及私人部门投 资的低迷，导致企业受高融资成本、盈利前景不确定性影响，没有恢复扩张意愿，普遍推迟资本支出。 经济体缺少推动下一轮增长的投资来源，长期增长潜力被侵蚀。 日前，联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)发布《2025年度贸易与发展报告》指出，2024年至2025年，全 球经济处于"脆弱韧性"状态，具体表现为表面稳定，但结构疲弱且风险积聚，看似未出现全面衰退，但 恢复力量弱、质量差、易被外部冲击影响。预计2025年全球经济增速将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的 2.9%。 报告指出，尽管数据并未显示深度衰退，但在全球需求不振、私人投资疲弱、制造业周期低迷、发达经 济体低增长向全球传导等因素的共同作用下，全球增长正从疲弱转为更低的下滑轨道。 此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 in November, indicating ongoing economic challenges due to tariff uncertainties and high production costs [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has decreased to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in factory activity in four months and the most significant drop in backlog orders in seven months [1][4]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to the U.S. economy is approximately 10.1%, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like apparel and textiles are experiencing severe contractions [5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a decline in customer demand, with manufacturers delaying orders until costs are clearer [4][5]. - Since the Trump administration raised tariffs in April, many U.S. manufacturers have faced increased costs for raw materials sourced from abroad, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Manufacturers across various sectors, including wood products and chemicals, report low business confidence, with many only accepting short-term orders and lacking plans for inventory expansion [6]. - The electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers have expressed concerns over "trade chaos," while transportation equipment manufacturers are planning long-term changes due to the evolving tariff environment [6].

Core Insights - The WTO reported that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 countries increased approximately fourfold from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in WTO trade monitoring history [3][8] - Despite the rise in tariffs, G20 countries implemented a significant number of trade facilitation measures, doubling the value of such measures compared to the previous report [4][9] Group 1: Tariff Impact - From mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, 14.3% of imported goods in G20 countries (approximately $25.99 trillion) were affected by tariffs and other measures, a significant increase from the previous $5.99 trillion [8] - The average actual tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers reached 18.0%, the highest level in over 90 years, indicating ongoing concerns about tariffs [4][12] Group 2: Trade Facilitation Measures - G20 countries introduced 184 new trade facilitation measures covering approximately $2.055 trillion in trade, nearly double the previous report's $1.07 trillion [9] - In the service trade sector, 52 new measures were introduced, with over two-thirds aimed at promoting trade [9] Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - The WTO forecasts a global goods trade growth rate of 2.4% for 2025, but this is expected to drop significantly to 0.5% in 2026 [11] - Oxford Economics predicts a slowdown in global trade growth from 4% in 2025 to 1% in 2026, highlighting the negative impact of rising tariffs [12] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty remains a critical factor affecting investment, with the U.S. experiencing over 40 modifications to tariff-related regulations within a year [13] - The fluctuation in U.S. trade policies, including recent increases in heavy truck tariffs and ongoing legal uncertainties regarding tariff legality, contribute to this uncertainty [12]

Policy Trends - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 40 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, but an agreement to end the shutdown is expected soon[10] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December[8] Economic Data - The U.S. ADP employment report for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 30,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market[14] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, marking the fastest expansion in eight months[12][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% over the week, with a year-to-date increase of 19.27%[4] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.63% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 14.40%[4] Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was stable at 4.11%, while the 10-year TIPS yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.83%[20] - The 10-year yields for U.K., German, and French bonds all increased, reflecting a general upward trend in European bond markets[26]

Core Viewpoint - Dairis International (00333) reported a 25% year-on-year decline in sales for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, totaling HKD 236 million, primarily due to weak market demand and inventory control measures by U.S. brands and retailers in response to trade uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The sales in the U.S. market accounted for 74% of total sales, followed by Europe at 10% and other markets at 16% [1]. - The gross profit margin was pressured due to underutilization of capacity leading to fixed costs not being fully absorbed, along with a product mix skewed towards lower-margin products [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued business sluggishness in the short term, influenced by recent changes and instability in U.S. trade policies, which directly impact the market [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are expected to exacerbate uncertainties in the operating environment and reshape global trade dynamics [2]. Group 3: Strategic Response - In response to the challenging operating environment, Dairis will continue to strictly control costs and remain vigilant [2]. - The company is encouraged by initial successes in new business development, product innovation, and insights into consumer trends, which are helping to attract new customers [2]. - Dairis is committed to leveraging its established strategies of technological innovation, vertical integration, quality service, and a multinational production network to navigate current challenges and achieve sustainable growth [2][3].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a high of $4030.57 and a low of $3962.20, with a daily fluctuation of $68, closing at $4001.38 [1] - Currently, gold is trading slightly lower around $3993 [1] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and previous value of 49.1 [3][5] - Twelve manufacturing sectors reported contraction, particularly in textiles, apparel, and furniture, while six sectors, including basic metals and transportation equipment, reported growth [5] - The prices paid index for raw materials decreased by 3.9 points to 58, marking the lowest level since the beginning of the year [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's outlook for a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with a 67.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 32.7% chance of maintaining current rates [11] - Four Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, indicating a lack of consensus on future rate cuts [7][8][9] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.46%, S&P 500 up 0.17%, and Dow Jones down 0.48% [2] - The Asian markets experienced declines, with significant drops in Japan and South Korea, and a general bearish trend in global stock futures [12] Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - President Trump indicated the possibility of deploying U.S. ground troops or conducting airstrikes in Nigeria to address violence against Christians, which could have implications for international relations and oil markets [16][18] - Nigeria, as a major oil producer, has significant geopolitical importance, with proven oil reserves of approximately 37 billion barrels [18]

Core Viewpoint - The ISM report indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October due to declining production and weak demand [1][7]. Manufacturing Activity - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is 48.7, below the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index is at 49.4, showing a second consecutive month of decline, although the rate of decline has slowed [4]. - The production index fell by 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating that output has contracted in two of the last three months [5]. Employment and Labor Market - The employment index is at 46, down from 45.3, marking the ninth consecutive month of contraction in employment [5]. - Companies are focusing on layoffs rather than hiring to manage labor costs amid uncertainty in demand [6]. Price and Inflation Indicators - The prices paid index is at 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [5][8]. - This index has decreased nearly 12 points since the peak following the implementation of tariff policies in April [5]. Supply Chain and Inventory - The ISM supplier deliveries index has risen to a four-month high, suggesting extended delivery times [6]. - Manufacturers are experiencing the largest decline in inventory levels in a year, with low customer inventory levels indicating potential future order increases [6]. Industry Sentiment - The manufacturing sector is facing a generally pessimistic sentiment, with concerns over trade policy uncertainty impacting business confidence [7][9]. - Consumer goods manufacturers' confidence has dropped to a two-year low due to worries about domestic spending and declining sales in export markets [10]. Economic Data Reliance - Due to the government shutdown, economists and policymakers are increasingly relying on private reports like the ISM survey to assess economic and labor market conditions [11].