Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire an additional 20% stake in Shanghai Jiale, increasing its total ownership to 81.4%, which is expected to enhance performance in Q4 2025 [2] - The company has announced the early termination of a share reduction plan by its controlling shareholder, which is seen as a positive market signal [2] - The company is expected to experience significant profit growth in Q3 due to improved net margins and accelerated revenue growth in the second half of the year [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 52.38 billion, 60.02 billion, and 68.74 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to 4.28 billion, 5.73 billion, and 6.92 billion CNY [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 1.78, 2.39, and 2.89 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Business Growth Drivers - The company's 2B bag manufacturing business is projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, with net margin recovery expected from improved capacity utilization and reduced foreign exchange impacts [4] - The 2C business is anticipated to benefit from changes in the profit-sharing model with Xiaomi, leading to improved profit margins [4] - The acquisition of Shanghai Jiale opens up a larger market in garment manufacturing, creating a second growth curve for the company [4] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3,105 million CNY in 2023, with projections of 4,240 million CNY in 2024 and 5,238 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 36.6% respectively [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 116 million CNY, with projections of 381 million CNY in 2024 and 428 million CNY in 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 146.5% and 12.3% respectively [7] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.9% in 2024 and 22.8% in 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are seen as a temporary setback, with underlying potential gradually accumulating [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [1] - The Bank of England decided to maintain interest rates but expressed caution regarding potential rate cuts later in the year due to rising inflation concerns [1] - Foreign investors increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to a new high in July, while Chinese holdings reached a 16-year low [1] Group 2: Stock Market Analysis - U.S. stock indices rose, with the electronic sector leading gains and the metals sector lagging behind, while market turnover reached 3.17 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 2.388522 trillion yuan, indicating a more volatile market in September compared to July and August [2] - The market is viewed as entering a consolidation phase after a prolonged uptrend, with differing views among investors leading to increased volatility [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Gold prices fell following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with expectations of further cuts later this year [3] - The U.S. retail sales showed strong performance in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, with tight supply conditions and high smelting output contributing to market dynamics [4][18] Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand visa-free travel and promote service exports, aiming to stimulate local tourism and consumption [6] - The DeepSeek team published a research paper on a new language model, marking a significant advancement in AI technology [7] Group 5: Market Performance - The futures market showed declines across various commodities, including crude oil and agricultural products, with specific price movements noted for each commodity [8][12][25][28] - The shipping index for European routes indicated a downward trend, with significant price adjustments observed in container shipping rates [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of weak U.S. employment data and geopolitical factors on various commodities, particularly gold, while also discussing the implications for stock indices and oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, which almost guarantees a rate cut in September [1][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.91% in July, and the central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months [1][6]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Gold**: Gold and silver maintain a strong position due to weak U.S. employment data, confirming the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The market is also unsettled by Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][17]. - **Oil**: OPEC+ countries confirmed an increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, despite geopolitical risks that could affect supply. The weak U.S. employment data reinforces expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][12]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the market showing signs of a potential rebound. The current market environment is characterized by a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" phase, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [3][10]. Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has identified dumping of pork and related products from the EU, leading to preliminary anti-dumping measures [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. In the short - term, some commodities may experience fluctuations, while in the long - term, certain trends are expected to continue. For example, the stock index may have short - term adjustments but a high probability of long - term upward trends, and precious metals may show a relatively strong trend in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [11][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The number of ADP employed in the US in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 104,000 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on releasing the potential of sports consumption and promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry, including increasing financial support [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", with expected average growth rates for related industries and specific goals by 2026 [7]. b. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures dropped 1.24%, the US dollar index rose 0.21%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.76%, London gold spot decreased 0.22%, London silver dropped 0.83%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 2.18%, ICE No. 2 cotton dropped 0.02%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.59%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.34%, CBOT soybean oil fell 0.70%, CBOT wheat fell 0.89%, and CBOT corn rose 0.50% [8]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes rose, while the previous trading day's stock index continued to correct. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and with the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is enhanced. The market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but short - term adjustments are possible [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.746%. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, economic data, and real - estate policies. The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fluctuated at night. Before the end of the US peak driving season, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, but commercial crude oil inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 1.18% at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the overall device operating rate and the average operating rate of coal (methanol) to olefin devices both increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber fluctuated narrowly. The price is mainly supported by supply - side factors, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures were in consolidation. The spot market is mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, and it remains to be seen whether the futures stop falling can drive the spot to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fell after profit - taking. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls data on Friday. Multiple factors affect the precious metals market, and gold and silver are expected to be strong in the context of approaching interest rate cuts and external interference [4][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. With multiple factors at play, copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The supply - demand situation may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. Supply and demand both show certain changes, and the price may have a callback risk after a rapid rise. If inventory starts to decline, the price may rise further [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be strong and volatile in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is in a short - term adjustment, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The market is affected by factors such as policy expectations, inventory changes, and demand seasons, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal fluctuated at night. The US soybean market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The fundamentals of the palm oil market have limited changes, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, with a weak trend expected. The domestic sugar market has both supporting and dragging factors, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of the international market in the short - term [27]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market has a relatively tight supply in the short - term, and the market focuses on the new cotton purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index declined. The short - term market is affected by sentiment and expectations, with an expected volatile trend. The medium - term market may return to the game of off - season freight rates [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trading environment has deteriorated, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has further increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold. Precious metals are expected to show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][20]. - The steel industry's policy expectations remain positive, and the pre - National Day rigid demand restocking expectation can support the double - coking market. However, factors such as the increase in coking coal inventory, high hot metal production, and the expectation of coke price cuts will put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - The SC crude oil night session fell 1.67%. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions. The future trend depends on OPEC's production increase [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: Federal Reserve's Waller stated that the Fed should cut interest rates at the next meeting and may implement multiple rate cuts, with the pace depending on data performance [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that US fiber optic producers and exporters' trade - mode change for exporting relevant single - mode fibers to China constitutes an evasion of anti - dumping measures. Starting from September 4, 2025, the current anti - dumping tax rates for non - dispersion - shifted single - mode fibers imported from the US will be applied to relevant cut - off wavelength - shifted single - mode fibers [7]. - **Industry News**: FTSE Russell announced quarterly review changes to indices such as the FTSE China 50 on September 3, to take effect after the close on September 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and remove China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.56%, the US dollar index increased by 0.38%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.07%, London gold spot increased by 2.34%, London silver increased by 1.04%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.45%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 2.07%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 3.16%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 0.45%, and CBOT wheat decreased by 2.42%. CBOT corn remained unchanged [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The US major indices rose. The previous trading day saw a correction in stock index futures, with the defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.40 trillion yuan. The A - share market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom". The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with more technology - growth components, are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 indices, with more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive. The stock index has risen significantly since July, showing short - term adjustment signs but with a high probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend [11][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The market is concerned about the large debt scales of Japan and the US, and the US bond yield fluctuates. Although the economic sentiment level continues to expand, the real estate market is still in adjustment. The bond futures prices have stabilized, and attention should be paid to the impact of the equity market on the bond market sentiment [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.67% at night. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts affects oil demand. The US crude oil inventory has decreased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.38% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefin plant operating rate increased. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is expected to be short - term bullish [15][16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the supply is expected to increase periodically. The demand side is in the off - season, and the consumption stimulus policy provides some support. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The supply - demand repair is ongoing, and the market focuses on the supply - side contraction. The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong. The decrease in US job vacancies, Trump's attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of an interest rate cut are all beneficial to precious metals. The long - term driving force for gold remains supported, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and home - appliance industries have different trends, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21][22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by sentiment, with high volatility. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The inventory has decreased slightly. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, but there is still room for price increase if the inventory is depleted [24]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The iron ore price is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the future [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The rebar performs weaker than hot - rolled coils. The short - term market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures were weak at night. The policy expectation is positive, but factors such as inventory and price cuts put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the reduction in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oil futures were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, while exports increased. The market fundamentals have limited changes, and the oil market is expected to continue oscillating [30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has entered the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories. However, the import and new - season sugar supply may put pressure on prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the international market and show a weak - oscillatory trend [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the market focus is shifting to the new - cotton purchase. The Xinjiang cotton production is high, and attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton. The cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated and fell 3.04%. The short - term market is expected to be supported by the stabilization of the US - bound shipping market and the MSC's National Day suspension plan. In the medium term, it may return to the game of off - season freight rates. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays on shipping companies' capacity regulation [33][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce, with an intraday peak above $3600. COMEX silver futures increased by 0.01% to $41.73 per ounce. Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are likely to enter a new upward trend, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce [1][2][17] - The recent actions of President Trump attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve officials have caused market unease regarding the independence of the Fed. The US Geological Survey has proposed including silver and other minerals in the 2025 critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential import tariffs on silver. The dovish stance of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further supporting precious metals [2][17] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. The overall market for gold and silver is expected to remain strong as the Fed approaches a potential rate cut and amid Trump's interference with the Fed's independence [2][17] Group 2: Stock Indices - The three major US stock indices experienced declines, with small-cap stocks showing significant pullbacks. The banking sector led gains while the communication sector lagged. The market turnover reached 2.91 trillion yuan. As of September 1, the financing balance increased by 35.36 billion yuan to 2.280829 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the second half of the year [3][9] - The current market is in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, indicating a high probability of continued market performance. However, investors should adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Indices with a higher proportion of technology growth stocks, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are more aggressive and volatile, while indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are more defensive, may have relatively weaker price elasticity [3][9] Group 3: Copper and Other Metals - Copper prices rose in the overnight session, driven by tight supply of concentrates and high growth in smelting output. The National Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the electricity sector, with significant increases in photovoltaic installations. However, the automotive and home appliance sectors are showing signs of slowing growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors [3][18] - Zinc prices also increased overnight, with processing fees for zinc concentrates recovering and smelting profits turning positive. However, the construction investment growth remains weak, and the overall supply-demand balance may tilt towards surplus in the short term, leading to potential weakness in zinc prices [3][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with unilateral trading and arbitrage both rated as "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of asphalt follows crude oil, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. In September, the traditional peak season, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but the contradiction is not prominent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: - In September 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41%) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17%). From January to September, the total production is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18%). The increase is due to factors such as good profit margins, sufficient low - cost raw materials, and the resumption or planned production increase of some refineries [4] - Southeast Asian asphalt resources are in tight supply, supporting import prices. Korean asphalt prices in September have slightly declined compared to August, while Singapore and Thai asphalt prices remain firm [4] - **Demand**: - Demand release is less than expected. In the north, some demand has slightly increased, and in the south, demand has slightly recovered with less rainfall. This year's peak season may not be prosperous, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work is likely to be disproven [4] - This week, domestic refinery shipments reached 404,000 tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. Shipments in North China decreased due to rain and project suspension, while those in East and South China increased [4] - **Inventory**: - This week, domestic factory inventories decreased, especially in Shandong. The reasons are intermittent production suspension, product conversion, and the fulfillment of previous orders [4] - Social inventories also decreased, with significant regional differentiation. In the Northeast, high prices and reduced production led to inventory reduction, and in the Northwest, project rush - work increased demand [4] - **Cost**: - International oil prices first rose for three consecutive days due to positive inventory data and geopolitical factors, then fluctuated. The initial decline was due to concerns about trade and the re - evaluation of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the subsequent rise was due to a decline in US inventories [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [15][16][17] - **Basis**: It presents the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025, as well as the production in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) [23][27] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions (North China, South China, Northeast, Shandong, East China) from 2019 to 2025 [32][35][36][37] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [39] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][47] 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [51][53][54] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [56][57] 3.7 Demand - **Shipments**: It shows the shipments of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [60] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][64][66][67][69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver rebounded. At the Jackson Hole meeting last week, Powell's statement was considered a dovish stance, enhancing the expectation of a rate cut in September. The rebound of US inflation data in July and positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks, putting pressure on gold and silver. The non - farm payrolls data in July was worse than expected and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed's internal views are divided, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. Although there are multi - party progress in trade negotiations, the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the expectation of a rate cut rises [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 779.92 and 782.32 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74 (0.09%) and 0.84 (0.11%). The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9348.00 and 9371.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 46.00 (-0.49%) and 43.00 (-0.46%) [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 180151 and 140282 respectively, and the trading volumes are 226253 and 52290 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 322774 and 240493 respectively, and the trading volumes are 631045 and 145892 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.58 and - 6.98 respectively, and that of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 16.00 and - 7.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold are 775.34 and 774.20 respectively, with daily changes of 3.71 (0.48%) and - 2.57 (-0.33%). The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver are 9364.00 and 38.56 respectively, with daily changes of 182.00 (1.98%) and - 0.33 (-0.85%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.40, 23, 82.80, 7.17, and 7.55 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.30, 20, 84.04, 7.12, and 7.34 [2] Inventory - **Domestic and Overseas Inventories**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 37,515 kg (an increase of 60.00 kg), and the silver inventory is 1,113,641 kg (an increase of 4,518.00 kg). The current COMEX gold inventory is 38,563,780 ounces (a decrease of 32.15 ounces), and the silver inventory is 508,783,339 ounces (an increase of 296409 ounces) [2] Relevant Market Indicators - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.4262, 6439.32, 4.28, 68.2, and 7.1581 respectively, with changes of 0.72%, - 0.43%, 0.47%, 0.01%, and - 0.18% compared with the previous values [2] - **Derivative Product Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons (an increase of 1.00 ton). The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared with the previous values [2] 4. Macroeconomic News - Trump met with South Korea's President Lee Jae - myung at the White House. Trump said he doesn't mind renegotiating the trade agreement with South Korea and is considering ordering some ships from South Korea [2] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the consumer market or being withdrawn from warehouses after 12:01 am Eastern Daylight Time on August 27, 2025 [2] - The US added minerals such as copper and potash to the 2025 critical minerals list. The draft list has been published in the Federal Register for a 30 - day public comment period [2] - In July, the annualized sales volume of new homes in the US decreased by 0.6% to 652,000 units, exceeding the market expectation of 630,000 units. The median price of new homes decreased by 5.9% year - on - year to $403,800 [3]