今天A股收盘定格在4151.24点。 三大指数继续收红，但眼前的一幕让很多股民觉得既熟悉又无奈：超过3600只股票收跌，全市近7成个股翻绿。 这已经是连 续第三个交易日，超过三千家公司跟着指数一起"道歉"了。 这并不能改变整体科技股疲软的局面。 从上周开始，很多游资热炒的题材就明显降温了。 今天更是延续了这种风格。 市场仿佛进入了一个新阶段：大家不 再听故事了，开始更看重实实在在的东西。 什么东西最实在？ 要么是产品正在涨价的，要么是业绩能算得清账的。 就在这一片"绿色心情"里，另一个数字格外刺眼：84家涨停。 尤其是贵金属板块，几乎霸屏了涨幅榜，掀起一阵涨停潮。 冰与火，就这么同时出现在2026 年1月28日的A股盘面上。 一边是指数稳如泰山，甚至沪指一度摸到了4170点，距离前高4190只有一步之遥。 另一边却是大多数人的账户在缩水。 这种"指数涨，钱包亏"的割裂感， 成了开年以来最让散户纠结的行情。 钱到底去哪儿了？ 答案写在涨幅榜上。 今天市场的绝对主角，是资源和周期。 贵金属、珠宝首饰、有色金属、煤炭、油气开采……这些带着浓重"涨价"味 道的板块集体躁动。 白银有色已经喜提7连板，中国黄金也4连板了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $5,500 per ounce, signifies a profound shift in the global macroeconomic landscape, reflecting a transition in industrial demand paradigms and a reassessment of resource strategic value [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently broken the $5,500 mark, driven by a shift from traditional inflation hedging to a focus on hedging against changes in the global monetary credit system [4][5]. - The recent increase in gold ETF inflows, with over 5% gains and net inflows exceeding 5.8 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, indicates strong market interest [1][4]. - The total open interest in gold futures has accelerated, reflecting a robust buying force from central banks and institutional asset reallocations [4][5]. Group 2: Macro Environment - The current macro environment is characterized by "de-globalization" and "resource nationalism," leading to strategic control over key mineral resources and creating supply constraints that elevate the strategic premium of all resources [6][7]. - Political factors are increasingly influencing the supply side of mineral resources, with countries implementing policies to strengthen control over domestic resources [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The financial environment, marked by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, providing a favorable liquidity backdrop for gold price increases [5][6]. - The demand for gold is being driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset, with increasing interest from central banks as long-term buyers [5][9]. - Investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, have raised gold price forecasts, predicting a potential rise to $6,000 per ounce in the spring of 2026, driven by structural changes in central bank gold purchasing behavior [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Resource commodities are emerging as a core investment direction due to macroeconomic changes and asset price revaluation, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and a shift towards looser monetary policy, alongside domestic demand for key metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium [1][3][4] Global Macro Perspective - The combination of U.S. fiscal expansion and low interest rates is expected to drive global funds to reprice major assets, with a renewed focus on precious metals like gold due to increased demand from central banks and institutional investors [3] - The restructuring of global manufacturing, including the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and increased focus on energy security in Europe, is enhancing the underlying demand for resource commodities [3][4] Domestic Demand Dynamics - The new productive forces in China are creating a new demand structure for resource commodities, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage, where lithium shows strong demand elasticity [4] - The inventory cycle is shifting from passive destocking to active restocking, indicating a structural change in demand for raw materials and midstream products [4] Investment Framework - The resource commodities are categorized into defensive assets like gold and certain energy resources, and offensive assets like industrial metals (copper, aluminum) and rare resources, emphasizing a balanced "attack and defense" strategy [5][6] - Gold is highlighted as a defensive asset, gaining strategic value amid global conflicts and serving as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Energy companies with resource control and cost advantages are positioned to provide sustainable cash returns and risk mitigation [6] Rare Metals and Strategic Assets - Rare metals like tungsten and antimony are gaining attention due to their high demand in AI infrastructure, aerospace, and defense sectors, with their scarcity providing pricing power amid supply chain disruptions [7] - The investment logic for these rare resources aligns with a "strategic asset" approach, suggesting potential for price revaluation in the medium to long term [7] Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment strategy emphasizes a high equity position in resource-related companies, focusing on mining and manufacturing sectors, with a significant allocation to upstream resources [8] - The performance of the fund, achieving a total return of 83.05% within less than a year, demonstrates the effectiveness of a forward-looking investment approach [9] Research and Risk Management - The investment discipline emphasizes long-term performance and compliance, integrating macroeconomic analysis with industry trends and individual stock fundamentals [11][12] - A systematic research framework is employed to assess macroeconomic conditions, industry phases, and individual stock evaluations, enhancing the sustainability of investment strategies [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Franklin Fund presents a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, highlighting a "slow bull" market characterized by structural differentiation, with significant performance from the technology sector and resource revaluation driven by external and internal demand dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: Technology Growth - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is identified as the core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with its impact expected to surpass that of the internet and mobile internet eras [2]. - The past year has seen exponential growth in computing power driven by companies like OpenAI and Nvidia, alongside advancements in algorithms, leading to a clearer understanding of the path to General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) [2][3]. - The focus for investment in the AI sector should be on commercial opportunities in application development and the technological iteration of computing power, with a strong belief that 2026 will be a breakthrough year for domestic AI industries in China [3]. Group 2: Resource Revaluation - The report notes a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical tensions, de-globalization trends, and the rising demand for strategic resources due to the AI revolution [4]. - The U.S. is implementing tariffs and localization policies to build strategic reserves of critical minerals, while China is enhancing its control over supply in areas like rare earths and tungsten [4]. - The potential for this revaluation trend to extend to oil and agricultural products is highlighted, with oil prices being a key factor influencing global inflation and economic policies [5]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Stabilization - The decline in real estate prices since 2021 has led to a contraction in local government and household balance sheets, contributing to weak domestic demand [6]. - Short-term stabilization of core asset prices and proactive debt management are seen as effective measures to restore balance sheets, while long-term recovery will depend on structural reforms in consumption and income distribution [6][7]. - The direction of real estate policy will be crucial for the performance of the domestic demand sector in 2026, with a shift from a "supportive" to a "stimulative" approach potentially leading to significant valuation recovery across the domestic industry chain [7]. Group 4: National Competition - The report suggests that a stable external economic environment is essential for the continued performance of externally driven sectors, with a shift in U.S. foreign policy expected to lead to a more pragmatic approach [8]. - Improved relations between China and Europe are anticipated, although potential trade disputes in Southeast Asia and other regions remain a concern [8]. - Overall, the external environment in 2026 is expected to be more stable than in 2025, benefiting the outlook for externally driven industries [8]. Conclusion - Guohai Franklin Fund maintains an optimistic view for the A-share market in 2026, with a continued focus on technology growth, resource revaluation, and the potential stabilization of domestic demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Franklin Fund indicates that the A-share market in 2026 is expected to be influenced by a "slow bull" market characterized by structural differentiation, with significant performance from the technology sector and resource revaluation [1][15]. Group 1: Technology Growth - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with its impact expected to surpass that of the internet and mobile internet eras [3][4]. - The AI sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth in 2026, driven by advancements in domestic manufacturing technology and the mass production of GPUs, alongside established advantages in large model development in China [5]. - The focus for investment in the AI industry should be on commercial opportunities in application and the technological iteration path in computing power, with a recognition of potential short-term disruptions in stock selection due to hardware technology changes [4][5]. Group 2: Resource Revaluation - The report notes a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical tensions, de-globalization trends, and the rising demand for strategic resources due to the AI revolution [7][8]. - The supply-side dynamics are influenced by the U.S. implementing tariffs and localization policies, while China continues to manage its advantages in rare earths and other strategic materials [7]. - The potential for value revaluation trends to extend into oil and agricultural products is highlighted, with oil prices being a critical factor affecting global inflation and economic policies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Stabilization - The decline in real estate prices since 2021 has led to a contraction in local government and household balance sheets, contributing to weak domestic demand [10][11]. - Short-term stabilization of domestic demand relies on balancing the asset-liability sheets of households, governments, and enterprises, while long-term recovery will depend on fundamental changes in economic driving models [10]. - The direction of real estate policy will be crucial for the market structure in 2026, determining whether it will adopt a conservative "support" strategy or a more aggressive "stimulus" approach [11]. Group 4: National Competition - The report suggests that a stable external trade environment is essential for the continuation of strong performance in foreign demand-driven sectors [13]. - The U.S. is expected to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, which may lead to a phase of stability in U.S.-China relations and improved ties with Europe [13]. - Despite potential trade disputes in Southeast Asia, China's ability to manage these challenges has significantly improved compared to the past [13]. Conclusion - Overall, Guohai Franklin Fund maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, expecting a better environment than in 2025, with a continued focus on technology growth and resource revaluation [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in Hong Kong paper stocks, particularly Nine Dragons Paper, which rose by 6.5%, marking a cumulative increase of 22% for the month [1] - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have initiated large-scale maintenance shutdowns to proactively reduce production capacity [1] - Several manufacturers of white card and cultural paper, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, a short-term supply-demand gap for wood chips is expected to emerge by 2026, with a positive outlook for the recovery of wood chip and pulp price levels [1] - Despite recent large-scale domestic production of self-made pulp, the construction cycle for high-quality wood chip resources is lagging behind equipment production, leading to a projected supply gap in the domestic wood chip market by 2026 [1] - The tightening of raw material supply is anticipated to elevate cost pressures, while marginal improvements in demand could lead to a recovery in pulp price levels by 2026, benefiting leading companies with full supply chain capabilities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in the Hong Kong paper industry stocks, particularly with Nine Dragons Paper experiencing a 6.5% increase, reaching a new high, and a cumulative rise of 22% within the month [1] - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing production capacity [1] - Several manufacturers of white card paper and cultural paper, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, a short-term supply-demand gap for wood chips is expected to emerge by 2026, with a positive outlook on the recovery of wood chip and pulp price levels [1] - Despite recent large-scale domestic production of self-made pulp, the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources is lagging behind equipment production, leading to a projected supply gap in the domestic wood chip market by 2026 [1] - The tightening of raw material supply is anticipated to elevate cost levels, while marginal improvements in demand could lead to a recovery in pulp price levels by 2026, benefiting leading companies with full supply chain capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term supply-demand gap for wood chips is expected to emerge in 2026, with a positive outlook for the recovery of wood chip and pulp prices [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic production of self-made pulp has increased significantly in recent years, but the construction cycle for high-quality wood chip resources is lagging behind equipment production [1] - A phase of supply shortage in the domestic wood chip market is anticipated in 2026 due to the mismatch between production capacity and resource availability [1] Group 2: Price Recovery and Industry Opportunities - The tightening of raw material supply is expected to elevate cost pressures, while marginal improvements in demand could lead to a recovery in the central price of pulp in 2026 [1] - Leading companies with full industry chain self-sufficiency are likely to experience premium opportunities as they transition from "processing and manufacturing" to "resource revaluation" [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 18.41%, 29.87%, 49.57%, and 35.92% respectively [1] - Nearly 400 initiator funds were established in the market in 2025, which are seen as "seed products" reflecting the confidence of fund managers and market trends [1][2] - The performance of initiator funds varied, with some achieving significant returns while others remained stagnant, indicating a mixed outcome for these investment vehicles [1][4] Group 2 - The year 2025 was characterized by a strong focus on hard technology, with the China Europe Information Technology A fund leading the pack with a return of 102.65% since its inception [2] - The China Europe Resource Selection and Shanghai Silver Resource Selection funds also performed well, achieving returns of 80.46% and 71.69% respectively, highlighting the profitability of core upstream assets [2] - Over 60% of the initiator funds established in 2025 had a scale below 50 million yuan, with many remaining close to the "seed line" of 10 million to 20 million yuan [4][6] Group 3 - The success of initiator funds is closely tied to the overall research and investment capabilities of the fund companies, with a clear strategic focus being essential for effective product deployment [6][7] - Some fund companies adopted a "tool-based positioning" strategy, launching related ETF linked products to capitalize on trends in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which may lead to future growth [6] - Conversely, smaller fund companies that spread their resources too thin across multiple unrelated themes often faced poor performance and small fund sizes, indicating a lack of strategic focus [6][7]

Market Overview - The total trading volume in 2025 exceeded 420 trillion yuan, averaging over 17 trillion yuan daily, indicating a highly active market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% throughout the year, with six instances of surpassing the 4000-point mark, closing at 3968.84 points [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 49.57%, reflecting a strong growth in the technology sector [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a remarkable increase of 94.73%, followed by the telecommunications sector with an 84.75% rise [1] - Other sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery also saw gains exceeding 40% [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage sector declined by 9.69%, and the coal sector fell by 5.27% [1] Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a reliance on financial and real estate sectors to a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing, driven by a "technology revolution" and "resource revaluation" [1] - The driving forces behind the market include the AI industry chain explosion, improved corporate earnings, and stable investments from state-owned funds and insurance companies [1] 2026 Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with a shift in focus from "expectations" and "valuations" to "performance" and "profitability" [2] - A projected earnings growth rate for all A-share listed companies is anticipated to rebound to 5%-8% [2] - Key drivers for this growth include a potential global manufacturing cycle recovery and the maturation of emerging industries like AI and commercial aerospace [2] Valuation and Funding - The overall market valuation is around 22 times earnings, which is not considered cheap but is not viewed as a bubble in the context of historical and economic transformation [3] - Continuous inflow of funds is expected as residents shift investments from real estate and savings to the stock market, supported by significant insurance fund allocation and ETF purchases [3] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The market is expected to experience distinct phases throughout 2026, with a focus on technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors in Q1, followed by performance verification in Q2 [4] - Q3 may see a balanced market style, with stable performance in consumer sectors, while Q4 will likely focus on high dividend stocks and stable earnings [4] Sector Opportunities - Structural opportunities exist in the consumer sector, particularly in essential consumption, which remains stable and offers high dividends [5] - The performance of discretionary consumption sectors will largely depend on supportive policies for real estate [5] Key Investment Themes - The primary investment themes for 2026 include: 1. Technology-driven opportunities, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace [6] 2. High-end manufacturing with a focus on robotics and global expansion [6] 3. Cyclical sectors benefiting from new demand, such as industrial metals and chemicals [6]