丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 偏弱的预期仍需呵护 ——2 月 PMI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，若以 2013 年以来，春节位于 2 月的年份作为季节性变化，2 月制造业 PMI 环比走弱幅度与季节性一致，但背后结构性变化也需警惕：1）外需回落明显， 反映当前全球工业需求复苏叙事有被地缘政治扰动打断的可能；2）大宗价格普涨下，输入性通 胀的风险在增加，对企业盈利能力构成一定影响。尽管从 1 月下半月以来，随着结构性政策的 逐步加码，经济的量有触底改善的趋势，但从 2 月 PMI 来看，普遍较弱的预期仍需政策呵护， 景气能否持续维持扩张仍有待两会后观察政策发力的节奏强度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 偏弱的预期仍需呵护 2] [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 3 月 4 日，国家统计 ...

假期扰动：PMI 季节性回落 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 本报告导读： 观 本月制造业 PMI 边际回落，供需指数季节性下滑，主因"史上最长春节 假期"的扰动。价格指数暂稳，接下来需关注输入性通胀的影响。在服 务业，景气平稳，结构分化。此外，建筑业活跃度还需政策呵护。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.04 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 中国居民财富：第三次历史"大迁徙" 2026.02.24 关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相" 2026.02.22 有多少存款：可供"搬家" 2026.02.22 美国的"再通胀"之路 2026.02.12 强化政策协同 2026.02 ...

科技七巨头全军失守，这并非单个公司的错，它更像是一只老鼠被猫惊到，市场在寻找下一个"安全港"，结果金银上演了逃命的逆袭，现货黄金突破5220美 元/盎司，白银大涨4%，这是资金的本能，股票下跌，贵金属上位——避险逻辑再简单却又复杂到让人无所适从； 中概股也没有幸免，世纪互联跌超7%，爱奇艺大跌5%，阿里巴巴跌超2%，这些数字告诉我们一件事，中国概念股在海外市场的脆弱性依然存在，宏观流动 性、监管预期、估值修正交织，任何一根导火索都可能引发连锁反应； 对中国投资者而言，这样的美股暴跌提醒了两点，一是海外市场的风险并非遥远的新闻，它会在你我账户上留下痕迹，二是资产配置不能只看过去的溢价收 益，要看承受风险的能力和时间窗口，换句话说，别拿短期的高收益去冒长期的风险； | 贵金属 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 5226.630 | 91.800 | 5241.1 | | +45.530 +0.88% | +3.526 +3.99% | +46.9 +0.90% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE更全 | SHFE自银 | | 91.9 ...

每周思考总第668期 《 市场仍在反弹窗口中 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现，2024年全年累计收益53.69%，2025年全年累计收益10.62%。 2026年至3月1日累计收益0.15%。 1 本周观点 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 春节后首周市场如期收获日历红包，沪深300指数周涨幅1.08%，上证综指周涨幅1.98%，中证 500指数周涨幅4.32%。虽然物价通胀持续反弹，但春节后的流动性宽松依旧支撑了A股延续上涨。 基本面上，美以开启对伊进攻。 国内春节后首周无重要经济数据披露，PMI数据延迟发布；海外 方面，美国避险资产继续领涨，过去1个月10年美债利率已大幅下行30BP，但略超预期的是商品价格 仍出现了第二波反弹并带动国际经济上涨 ...

根据国际清算银行数据，今年1月日元实际有效汇率指数降至67.73，创1973年以来最低。该指数反映日 元对一篮子主要货币综合强弱，其下跌直接导致日元购买海外商品的实际购买力下降。 面对物价上涨压力，日本央行正推进货币政策正常化。过去两年，日本央行将利率从负0.1%上调至 0.75%，计划继续加息，当前政策利率已达30年来最高，市场预期利率或升至1.5%至1.75%区间。加息 旨在应对通胀、退出长期超宽松货币政策，目前日本通胀已连续多时超过央行2%目标，输入性通胀压 力进一步增加政策调整必要性。 加息也带来新挑战。瑞穗研究与技术公司估算，政策利率单次上调0.25个百分点，背负房贷等债务的家 庭每年将额外增加约1.8万日元还款负担；非金融保险业企业营业利润平均下降0.9%。日本国内研究认 为，加息过快可能加剧中小企业经营困难，影响地方银行资产负债表。 宏观层面，日元购买力下降直接影响日本民生。能源、粮食等进口商品涨价推高生活成本，工资增长未 能抵消物价涨幅。日本厚生劳动省数据显示，2025年日本人均实际工资较上年减少1.3%，连续四年下 滑。这一状况削弱居民消费信心，部分民众选择消费降级或增加储蓄。 日元实际有效 ...

在低基数、AI相关行业需求延续的背景下，PPI可能在二季度个别月份转正，但持续性取决于房地产投资能否见底企稳。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年的第一份物价数据报告出炉，1月CPI同比因春节错位下滑0.6个百分点至0.2%，但在输入性通胀的带动下，PPI同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。以此 估算，1月GDP平减指数同比在-0.4%左右。 对于1月物价，我们认为有三个方面值得关注： 第一，物价数据口径修正的影响较小。 2026年物价数据迎来了五年一次的基期轮换，此次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 从类别上看，CPI在总类别不变的情况下（8大类、268基本分类），通过删减、合并等方式增加了一部分与新消费相关的商品价格如医疗美容服务、车用 电力、互联网医疗服务等等。同时，新增了新增计算出行服务价格指数数据。 从CPI权重上看，本轮基期CPI各分类权数总体变动不大。2025年食品烟酒及在外餐饮、衣着、居住、生活用品及服务、交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗 保健、其他用品及服务八个大类的权数分别为29.5%、5.4%、22.1%、5.5%、14.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The PPI may turn positive in certain months of Q2 2026 due to low base effects and sustained demand in AI-related industries, but its sustainability depends on whether real estate investment stabilizes [2][17]. Group 1: Price Data Overview - In January 2026, the CPI decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, while the PPI increased by 0.5 percentage points to -1.4% due to input inflation [4]. - The impact of the price data revision is minimal, with the average effect on CPI and PPI year-on-year indices being approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively [5]. - The weight distribution of CPI categories remains largely unchanged, with food, clothing, and housing accounting for significant portions of the index [5]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - The weight of midstream industries like electrical machinery and electronic equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals, has steadily increased, while the share of black-related and downstream industries has slightly decreased [6]. - Gold prices have significantly supported CPI, contributing 0.3 percentage points, while AI-related investments have driven PPI up by 0.9 percentage points [8]. - In January, the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 22.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the PPI increase [8]. Group 3: Future PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with tail effects contributing to this change, potentially moving from -1.5 percentage points at the beginning of the year to around +0.4 percentage points by July [13]. - If the PPI's month-on-month average stabilizes above 0%, it could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI by June, with a potential increase of around 1% [16]. - The sustainability of price increases will depend on downstream demand and the stabilization of real estate investments, which have been a drag on PPI due to declining property investments [17].

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased year-on-year to 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased year-on-year to -1.4%, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and external inflationary pressures [2][3]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI's year-on-year decline to 0.2% was primarily affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with the month-on-month CPI growth also weaker than historical averages when adjusted for seasonal effects [2]. - The core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above historical averages, supported by rising durable goods prices due to gold price increases and policy subsidies, while service prices showed weaker seasonal growth [2][3]. - The recent CPI base period adjustment enhanced coverage of new economic and consumption patterns, with an increased weight on services and a decreased weight on consumer goods, indicating a shift from ownership consumption to usage and experience-based consumption [2]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -1.4%, driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and crude oil, which positively impacted midstream and upstream industries [3]. - Input factors have increasingly influenced price movements, but recovery in domestic demand-related categories may require additional policy support to sustain momentum [3]. - Overall, there is an expectation for the CPI and PPI year-on-year central tendency to rise throughout 2026, with tailwind factors providing strong support; however, maintaining a trend of price recovery will necessitate further policy interventions to boost endogenous demand [3].

[Table_Report] 相关报告 2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比回落至 0.2%，PPI 同比回升至-1.4%，春节错月和输入性通 胀放大了物价波动。 黄金大跌：后续如何看 2026.02.02 非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 2026.01.31 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) 投资要点： | | 021-23185645 | | --- | --- | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-23185639 | | | heyuan3@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-2321982 ...

Group 1 - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party secured a majority in the recent House of Representatives election, with the LDP winning 316 seats and the Japan Innovation Party 36 seats, indicating continued governance stability for Japan [1] - The election was marked by a record short interval of 16 days from the dissolution of the House to the voting, the shortest since World War II, aimed at consolidating power for the ruling party to facilitate policy implementation [1] - Japan's GDP growth is projected at approximately 1.1% for the year 2025, suggesting a sustained low growth trend, with expectations for the government to maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy to support economic growth in the short term [1] Group 2 - Japan is gradually exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy by 2025, but faces challenges in balancing interest rate hikes with economic stability, as core inflation remains weak at around 1.8% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in December 2025, primarily driven by energy and food prices, indicating a reliance on imported inflation [2] - Japan's economy is confronted with long-term structural challenges, including an aging population, declining labor force, and rising social security expenditures, which limit potential growth rates [2] Group 3 - While the LDP's continued governance provides short-term stability and potential policy benefits, long-term structural issues such as labor shortages, aging population, government debt, and sluggish economic growth remain significant constraints [3] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of weakness, with a PMI of 49.8 in December 2025, indicating contraction, while Japan lags behind the US and China in emerging industries like AI and biotechnology [2][3]