日本对抗通缩的实践表明，一旦形成"债务—通缩"恶性循环，长期通缩预期将削弱央行降息（降低 名义利率）的政策效果。 日本CPI自2021年9月开始转正，此后基本稳定在2.5%以上。日本经济走 出通缩的一个重要契机是抓住全球通胀上行形成的输入性通胀窗口期，建立工资与物价同步上涨的良 性循环，并通过货币政策正常化增强长期通胀预期。 房地产投资不振叠加对等关税冲击，中游化工品成为PPI下行的最大拖累因素。中游化工品对PPI降 幅波动的解释程度达到60%以上，是分析PPI整体走势的重要指标。受供给波动和需求收缩影响，下 游必选消费品加大PPI下行压力。 综合整治内卷式竞争初显成效，下游可选消费品对PPI形成支撑。随着《公平竞争审查条例》《全国 统一大市场建设指引（试行）》相继出台，多部门加大力度治理企业低价无序竞争，新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏等新兴产业价格降幅收窄，缓解企业"增收不增利"的经营压力。 下半年，宏观调控重心是强化财政、货币、产业、就业、社保等各项政策协同发力，促进经济供需平 衡和物价合理回升，避免名义增长偏慢拉大宏微观经济温差。 提振名义经济增长应供需两端"双管齐下"：一方面，将涵盖一般物价（CPI、PP ...

贵金属日报 2025-08-21 贵金属 沪金涨 0.52 %，报 776.80 元/克，沪银涨 0.60 %，报 9160.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.11 %， 报 3392.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.31 %，报 37.89 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.29%，美元指数报 98.23 ； 市场展望： 昨日，特朗普及其团队再次利用人事任命对美联储独立性进行施压，金银价格出现明显反弹。 美国联邦住房金融局局长普尔特正督促司法部长对于现任联储理事库克的两笔贷款进行司法 审查。普尔特的信件指控库克伪造财产记录以非法获取更优惠的贷款条件。美联储理事丽莎库 克由前总统拜登提名进入联储。而特朗普则发推文称"美联储理事库克必须立即辞职"，据华 尔街日报报道，特朗普正考虑解雇库克的理事职务。 美联储主席鲍威尔将在北京时间 8 月 22 日晚间于杰克逊霍尔央行年会中发表讲话，当前美国 输入性通胀影响逐步显现，但特朗普政府基于美债利息支出对联储施加较大的降息压力。鲍威 尔曾多次在杰克逊霍尔讲话中发表关键性的货币政策观点，他的讲话将对金银价格的走势产生 显著影响。四季度将是新任联储 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current US labor market has weakened significantly, and inflation still faces risks brought by tariffs, which allows the Fed to make relatively cautious statements on monetary policy in the near term. However, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence is more significant, and Fed officials' statements on inflation vary greatly. After the release of non - farm data lower than expected, the objectivity of US economic data will be weakened, and Fed officials' views on monetary policy will have a greater impact on market expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US July PPI Data Shows Inflation Concerns, but Fed Officials' Statements Differ - US July CPI and PPI data show concerns about imported inflation. The overall CPI was lower than expected due to the decline in oil prices in July, while the core CPI was higher than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in used - car inflation and the impact of home - furniture prices. The US July PPI and import price data far exceeded expectations, indicating that the Trump administration's tariff policy has begun to have a significant impact on US prices [4]. - Fed officials' statements on inflation vary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes that the data shows an "unsettling trend" in inflation, but he hopes to wait for more economic data and advocates further interest - rate cuts under the conditions of slowing inflation and a stable labor market. St. Louis Fed President Musalem believes that tariffs are being transmitted to inflation, and a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September does not match the currently announced economic data [5]. II. The US Labor Market Has Weakened, Focus on Powell's Statement This Week - The US July seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls change was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The non - farm payrolls data for May and June were significantly revised downward, and government employment growth was almost "eliminated." In addition, the US manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were both lower than expected [8][11]. - After the release of the non - farm data, Trump fired the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22. His speech will have a significant impact on the trend of gold and silver prices. The market currently expects an 83.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, and there is also a pricing for another interest - rate cut in December. The precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to buy gold and silver on dips [11].

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded, closing at 98.12, up 0.31% [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.340%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.771% [1] - Gold prices initially rose but ended up falling, closing at $3332.67 per ounce, down 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which could significantly influence gold and silver prices [1] - The gold market shows a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines, particularly testing the $3300 support level [3] Group 3 - Oil prices have shown weakness, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.56 per barrel, up 0.47% after dipping to a low of $61.44 [3] - The market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions against Russia, although there are signs of easing concerns [3] - Oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on the $60 support level [5]

国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：PPI数据超预期；白银：高位震荡 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 金银周报 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 20 40 60 80 100 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-1.73%，伦敦银回落-1.46%。金银比从前周的88.5 回落至88.4，10年期TIPS回落至1.95%，10年期名义利率回升至 4.33%（2年期3.75%），美元指数录得97.86。 ◆ 本周公布美国PPI数据，明显高于预期，与此前稍有缓和的CPI数据 形成对比，突出关税带来的输入性通胀影响，使得市场对美国降息 预期有所下滑。下周21日至23日，全球投资者的目光将聚焦于美国 怀俄明州的山区度假胜地杰克逊霍尔。在这里，美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔的演讲不仅将为美国未来的货币政策路径提供关键线索， 更可能成为定义其职 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing severe challenges, with inflation pressures rising and increasing uncertainty, highlighted by a significant surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July [1][3] - The July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.7%, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2022, which shattered optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][3] - The surge in PPI reveals the underlying vulnerabilities of the U.S. economy, previously portrayed as strong, and indicates the adverse effects of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt surpassed $37 trillion shortly before the PPI data release, indicating a significant fiscal burden due to excessive spending and borrowing [5] - The high-interest rate environment means the U.S. must pay over $1 trillion annually in interest, further complicating the economic landscape [5] - The previously touted non-farm payroll data for July has been called into question, with revisions showing a decline in economic performance, suggesting a disconnect between reported and actual economic conditions [5] Group 3 - The inflation crisis has global repercussions, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and capital outflows from emerging markets, increasing currency depreciation pressures [7] - The high borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rates are raising loan and investment costs for businesses worldwide, contributing to a slowdown in global economic activity [7] - China faces dual pressures from both domestic and international fronts, with risks of capital outflow and currency depreciation due to the U.S. high-interest rate environment, alongside potential impacts on exports from a cooling U.S. economy [7]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a broad increase driven by optimistic market sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high, rising 4.11% or 1637.12 points to close at 41456.23 points [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with notable increases in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index, which rose 2.41% or 36.09 points, closing at 1533.37 points, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index, which rose 3.17% or 231.58 points, closing at 7543.5 points [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [1] - On the same day, the U.S. also reached agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with the Philippines facing a 19% tariff while opening its market to the U.S. [3] - Analysts suggest that the short-term market optimism may vary by country, with Indonesia and the Philippines less affected by U.S. tariffs due to lower export dependency [3][4] Group 3: Economic Growth and Forecasts - Southeast Asian countries reported better-than-expected economic growth in Q2, with Vietnam's GDP growing 7.96%, surpassing the expected 6.85% [6] - Despite positive growth, the World Bank downgraded economic forecasts for Southeast Asia, predicting growth rates of 5.8% for Vietnam, 5.3% for the Philippines, and 4.7% for Indonesia [6] - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast was also lowered to 3.8% for this year, reflecting concerns over external economic pressures [6][7] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - Malaysia and Indonesia implemented interest rate cuts in July to support their economies amid a backdrop of declining inflation [7] - The AMRO chief economist indicated that the ASEAN+3 region has the capacity to introduce further stimulus measures due to generally stable fiscal conditions [7] Group 5: Risks to Japan's Economy - Despite the positive sentiment from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, Japan's economy faces risks, including potential economic slowdown in the U.S. that could impact Japanese exports [8] - Analysts warn that increased tariffs could lead Japanese companies to relocate production closer to the U.S., potentially harming Japan's economic stability [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's ruling coalition faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, marking the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it lost a majority in both houses, leading to increased political fragmentation and uncertainty in the economy [1][2] Economic Impact - Rising inflation and the introduction of foreign immigrants have led to public discontent against the LDP, exacerbated by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused a reversal of Japan's long-standing deflation and uncontrolled rice prices [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remains at 0.5%, contributing to yen depreciation and import-driven inflation, while the influx of foreign tourists and investors has intensified local resentment towards foreigners [1][2] Political Dynamics - The political landscape is shifting towards the right, with younger voters supporting right-wing parties advocating for "Japan First" policies, which include rejecting immigration and proposing tax cuts and subsidies to alleviate living costs [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida's weakened political foundation may hinder substantial concessions in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, potentially leading to a stalemate in both the political arena and trade discussions [2][3] Fiscal Challenges - The call for tax reductions, particularly on consumption tax, is gaining traction, with 52% of the public supporting such measures, despite concerns that this could worsen Japan's fiscal situation and lead to increased long-term interest rates [3][4] - Japan's national debt stands at 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, necessitating low interest rates to manage government interest costs while stimulating exports [2][3] Market Reactions - Political uncertainty is expected to negatively impact yen-denominated assets, potentially driving international capital away from the Japanese bond market, which could trigger broader risks in U.S.-Japan capital markets [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a significant rebound in inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the second half of the year [1][4] - The CPI for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, indicating overall moderate inflation pressure [3] - Wall Street anticipates that the June CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.7% and month-on-month growth may reach 0.3%, marking a new high for the year [3] Group 2 - The rise in inflation is attributed not only to short-term fluctuations in energy and food prices but also to new tariff measures impacting various sectors, leading to input inflation [3] - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a trend of rising raw material prices, reflecting companies' responses to tariff policies, which could lead to widespread price increases in core goods [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to observe summer price reports to assess changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, but there is divergence on the timing, with some investors believing that sustained high inflation could delay rate cuts [4] - The recent rebound in the dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields indicate increased investor vigilance regarding the potential for rising inflation [4] - The current situation presents challenges for the Federal Reserve, balancing the risk of inflation resurgence against potential growth risks from manufacturing weakness and declining consumer momentum [4]