2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业走弱 就业走弱 美国 12 月新增非农就业低于预期，10 月和 11 月数据下修，显示就业市场走 弱。新增就业主要集中在酒店休闲和教育医疗等服务行业，建筑和制造业就 业减少。DOGE 影响告一段落，联邦政府就业首次连续回升。12 月失业率降 至 4.4%，11月失业率被下修至 4.54%，因为劳动参与率下降和劳工供应减少 抵消劳工需求走弱。市场对年内可能降息 50 个基点的预期变化不大。我们预 计美联储全年仅在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，很大程度作为新任主席上任后的 政治表态。上半年美国经济可能处于金发姑娘状态，减税政策提振经济增 长，油价和房租通胀回落抵消商品通胀反弹，美元流动性保持宽松状态，风 险资产可能走高。下半年美国经济可能呈现滞涨趋势，经济增速放缓，而通 胀止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期升温，风险资产可能回调。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingna ...

2026.01. 09 本文字数：1936，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 2026年伊始，韩国股市表现强劲。 开年以来，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）不断走高。今年首个交易日，KOSPI指数延续去年的表 现，依旧走在上升通道中，在突破4300点后，7日首次突破4600点大关，后续略有回调。9日，韩 国KOSPI指数收报4586.32点，较前一交易日上升33.95点。 韩国总统李在明曾在去年竞选时承诺，将通过改善公司治理、修改韩国商业法、扩大董事会对股东 的"信义义务"范围，力争把KOSPI指数推升至突破5000点大关。当前，随着KOSPI指数不断走高， 分析机构认为，照此速度，KOSPI指数本月就有望突破5000点。 哪些因素在推动 人工智能（AI）热潮无疑是韩国股市此轮走高的重要推手。高盛集团在去年末的报告中提到："半导 体库存去化结束和人工智能驱动的新需求周期，为韩国科技股带来了强劲的盈利修复预期。这是推动 KOSPI指数上行的核心引擎。" 受益于全球半导体行业的周期性回暖，作为韩国经济的支柱，三星电子、SK海力士等半导体巨头的 业绩和股价表现对大盘影响举足轻重。8日，三星电子最新披露的 ...

开年以来，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）不断走高。今年首个交易日，KOSPI指数延续去年的表现，依 旧走在上升通道中，在突破4300点后，7日首次突破4600点大关，后续略有回调。9日，韩国KOSPI指数 收报4586.32点，较前一交易日上升33.95点。 韩国总统李在明曾在去年竞选时承诺，将通过改善公司治理、修改韩国商业法、扩大董事会对股东 的"信义义务"范围，力争把KOSPI指数推升至突破5000点大关。当前，随着KOSPI指数不断走高，分析 机构认为，照此速度，KOSPI指数本月就有望突破5000点。 哪些因素在推动 人工智能（AI）热潮无疑是韩国股市此轮走高的重要推手。高盛集团在去年末的报告中提到："半导体 库存去化结束和人工智能驱动的新需求周期，为韩国科技股带来了强劲的盈利修复预期。这是推动 KOSPI指数上行的核心引擎。" 2026年伊始，韩国股市表现强劲。 当然，在KOSPI走高背后，关于AI泡沫化的论调一直存在。韩国国际金融中心发布的报告显示，受AI泡 沫警惕情绪等因素影响，韩国股市中外资股票资金流向仍可能出现较大波动。该中心最新数据显示，截 至去年12月底，外资在韩国股市的持股市值占比达3 ...

2026 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 强劲服务业支撑经济韧性 美国 12 月 PMI 显示服务业与制造业明显分化。服务业 PMI 扩张速度创 1 年来新 高，产需两端延续走强，就业指数自对等关税实施以来首次重回扩张，物价指 数扩张速度降至关税前水平；制造业 PMI连续 3个月加速收缩，需求依然疲软， 进出口活动低迷，企业延续去库存趋势。服务业 PMI 连续扩张显示美国经济仍 有韧性，而油价下跌和房租涨幅收窄推动通胀可能小幅回落，短期内美国经济 处于金发姑娘状态，美元流动性保持宽松，对风险资产形成支撑。但随着油价 接近美国页岩油盈亏平衡点、房租涨幅降至低于过去 10 年历史均值和其他商品 价格反弹，美国通胀可能在下半年止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期可能升温， 风险资产价格可能经历波动。我们预计美联储可能在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has shifted to a loose monetary policy since October last year, with multiple rate cuts due to weak domestic demand and the impact of U.S. tariffs [3][4] - The current benchmark interest rate is maintained at 2.50%, with analysts suggesting that further rate cuts remain an option if financial stability risks ease [3][7] - Economic growth in South Korea is projected at 1.8% for next year, with inflation rates expected to stabilize around 2.1% for 2025 and 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Despite a slight increase in inflation, the economic outlook remains uncertain, with financial stability risks still present [4] - The Korean economy is showing improvement driven by consumer recovery and export growth, although construction investment remains weak [4][5] - The depreciation of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar is partly due to domestic investors' overseas securities investments and net selling by foreign investors in the domestic stock market [5][9] Group 3 - The Bank of Korea is monitoring the housing market risks in Seoul, as recent government policies have not significantly improved housing prices [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase since July 2024, with inflation rates exceeding the central bank's 2% target for several months [14][13] - Citigroup predicts that South Korea's GDP growth could reach 2.2% in 2026, supported by a recovery in the semiconductor industry and low inflation [15][18]

2025.11. 14 本文字数：1926，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 在焦急等待近半个月后，韩国与美国终于就关税协定细则的说明书"虽迟但到"。 其实，在10月29日韩国庆州李在明与来访的美国总统特朗普举行会谈后，双方就贸易协议的具体条款达成一致。但是原定数日内发布关于关税与安保协 商成果的《联合情况说明书》迟迟未公布，韩国产业界普遍担心再生变数。如今，随着说明书的公之于众，韩国产业界松了口气。 据央视新闻报道，韩国总统李在明11月14日宣布， 韩国和美国就确定关税及安保协商达成一致。此外，韩国还将与美国在造船、人工智能和核工业方 面"建立新的伙伴关系"。 韩国产业界曾焦急等待 韩国承诺的3500亿美元对美投资计划分"两步走"（来源：新华社资料图） 7月30日，特朗普在社交媒体上称与韩国达成贸易协议，在韩方承诺向美国投资3500亿美元，且同意采购价值1000亿美元的能源产品后，美国对韩征收 的关税将从此前的25%降低至15%。但彼时，协议的细则，尤其是何时生效等细节，并未同时公布，韩国产业界陷入了漫长的等待中。 在韩国在一众产业中，韩国车企最为关注协议的走向。韩国汽车工业合作协会编制的数据 ...

在焦急等待近半个月后，韩国与美国终于就关税协定细则的说明书"虽迟但到"。 据央视新闻报道，韩国总统李在明11月14日宣布，韩国和美国就确定关税及安保协商达成一致。此外， 韩国还将与美国在造船、人工智能和核工业方面"建立新的伙伴关系"。 仅在今年第三季度，现代汽车和起亚汽车集团的数据显示，关税支出就分别达到1.82万亿韩元（约合 12.4亿美元）和1.23万亿韩元。受此影响，现代汽车营业利润同比下降29.2%，起亚汽车则同比大跌 49.2%。因此，韩国产业界认为，尽早确定15%关税税率的生效日期，将直接影响车企未来数月乃至全 年的盈利表现。 根据韩国产业通商资源部长官金 正宽本月4日在国务会议上表示，韩国政府正推动将关税削减追溯 至"提交对美投资基金相关法案的当月1日"生效，也就是11月1日。11月1日后已缴纳的超额关税将予以 退还。 此外，协议细节还显示，韩国承诺的3500亿美元对美投资计划分"两步走"，其中的2000亿美元为现金投 资，类似于日本的安排，每年投资上限为200亿美元，投资承诺将在2029年1月前最终敲定。剩余1500亿 美元将用于造船项目。14日，李在明还表示，韩美商定今后持续优化相关制度，争 ...

Group 1 - South Korea and the United States have reached an agreement on tariff and security negotiations, with South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung announcing the details on November 14 [1] - The agreement includes a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products, leading to a reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15% [2][3] - The South Korean automotive industry is particularly affected, with exports of auto parts to the U.S. projected to reach $8.22 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.5% of total auto parts exports [2] Group 2 - In the third quarter of this year, Hyundai and Kia reported significant tariff expenses, with Hyundai's reaching approximately $12.4 billion and Kia's at around $1.23 billion, leading to a decline in operating profits of 29.2% and 49.2% respectively [3] - The South Korean government is pushing for the tariff reduction to be retroactive to November 1, with excess tariffs paid after this date to be refunded [3] - The investment plan includes $200 billion in cash investments and $150 billion for shipbuilding projects, with a commitment to optimize related systems for both U.S. commercial and military vessels to be built in South Korea [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Korea reported a GDP growth of 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth since early 2024 [4] - The IMF has downgraded South Korea's economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 0.9%, citing trade friction and weak domestic demand as major challenges [4][5] - Citibank predicts that South Korea's GDP growth could reach 2.2% by 2026, driven by strong semiconductor exports and weak energy prices, suggesting a stable economic outlook [5]

Group 1 - The recent agreement between South Korea and the United States on tariff and security negotiations has alleviated concerns in the South Korean industry, which was anxious about potential changes in trade conditions [1][3] - South Korea has committed to investing $350 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $100 billion worth of energy products, leading to a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [3][4] - The automotive sector in South Korea is particularly affected, with exports of auto parts to the U.S. projected to reach $8.22 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.5% of total auto parts exports [3][4] Group 2 - In the third quarter of this year, Hyundai and Kia reported significant tariff expenses, with Hyundai's reaching approximately $12.4 billion and Kia's at about $1.23 billion, resulting in a year-on-year profit decline of 29.2% and 49.2%, respectively [4] - The South Korean government is pushing for the new 15% tariff rate to take effect retroactively from November 1, which would allow for refunds on excess tariffs paid [4][5] - The investment plan includes $200 billion in cash investments, with a cap of $20 billion per year, and an additional $150 billion allocated for shipbuilding projects [5] Group 3 - The South Korean economy is projected to grow at a rate of around 1% this year, influenced by strong semiconductor exports, despite the negative impact of U.S. tariffs [6][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for South Korea from 2% to 0.9% due to trade tensions and weak domestic demand [6][7] - Citibank has a more optimistic outlook, predicting that South Korea's GDP growth could reach 2.2% by 2026, driven by strong semiconductor exports and declining energy prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Citigroup predicts that gold prices could potentially reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027 under a specific bullish scenario driven by global wealth reallocation, although the base case suggests a decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 [1][5][7]. Group 1: Price Predictions - In a bullish scenario with a 30% probability, gold prices may hit $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, driven by significant global wealth reallocation [5][6]. - The base case scenario, which has a 50% probability, anticipates gold prices to decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 due to an improving U.S. economic environment [7][8]. - A bearish scenario with a 20% probability suggests that gold prices could fall to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 or 2027 if geopolitical and economic concerns ease significantly [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market has been the primary driver of recent gold price increases, with U.S. gold ETF net inflows accounting for 60.9% of global totals in 2025 [13][17]. - The current physical gold market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, estimated to exceed 1,000 tons annually, indicating that new buying demand far exceeds the supply from mining and recycling [17]. - The report highlights that gold currently represents only about 0.1% of global household wealth, suggesting that even a slight increase in allocation could require a substantial amount of gold, potentially leading to price surges [9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The report indicates that the investment demand, particularly from U.S. investors, is a key factor in the recent surge in gold prices, with net investment demand running at an annualized rate exceeding $350 billion [13]. - The valuation of gold is currently considered "very expensive," with multiple indicators reaching 50-year highs, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [10][14]. - The proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has risen to nearly 35%, the highest level since the mid-1990s, reflecting increased central bank interest in gold as a reserve asset [15].