晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 4 日 逻辑：目前唐山多数钢厂已计划高炉压产 30%，烧结限产 30%-50%， 部分钢厂已有高炉检修计划，检修时长多数在 5-7 天，预计 3 月上旬唐山 市场高炉铁水呈现下滑，到中旬则会恢复，整体影响量较为有限。3 月 3 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3380 元/吨，平均利润亏 损 72 元/吨，谷电利润为 39 元/吨。2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 3 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，螺纹产量再度回落并降至低位，但库存水平偏高，且短流程钢厂将 复产，供应将低位回升，利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求继续位于同期低 位，且下游复工存在时滞，需求弱势格局将维持，继而拖累钢价，相对利好的是重大会议临近政策 预期增强。目前来看，钢市运行多为国内逻辑主导，而节 ...

晨报 成材 成材：关注需求端启动 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 2 日 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 80.22%，环比增加 0.09 个百分点，同比增加 1.93 个百分点；日均铁水产量 233.28 万吨，环比增 加 2.79 万吨，同比增加 5.34 万吨。上周，全国 94 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 7.35%，环比基本持平，同比下降 41.56 个百分点。平均开 工率 10.14%，环比上升 0.29 个百分点，同比下降 53.2 个百分点。唐山 市于 2026 年 3 月 1 日 18 时起启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，解除时间另 行通知。上周末，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税上调 10 元/吨，报 2920 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材上周先下后上，底部震荡运行，螺纹主力最低逼近 3000 一线， 热卷主力短暂跌破 3200。上周基本面变化符合预期，累库在正常节奏内。 尽管已经过了春节假期，下游尚未启动，更多关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the national construction steel market was generally closed, with the overall price remaining the same as before the festival and regional performance showing differentiation. This year, manufacturers are cautiously optimistic, but there are differences in expectations for the post - holiday market. After the festival, steel prices are expected to have a short "good start" supported by the inertia of steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost. However, the recovery rhythm of demand, the resumption progress of steel mills, and inventory digestion will be key variables. Subsequently, the market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and the sustainability of the market depends on the actual release intensity of demand, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the national construction steel market was closed, with prices unchanged from pre - holiday levels and regional differences. Manufacturers have a cautious and optimistic attitude, but there are differences in post - holiday market expectations. After the holiday, steel prices may have a short "good start" due to factors such as steel mills' price increases, low inventory, and cost support. Key variables include demand recovery, steel mill resumption, and inventory digestion. The market will likely enter a shock adjustment stage, and its sustainability depends on actual demand release, with a short - term shock - upward trend [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Steel Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal production of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 230.49 | 228.58 | 1.91 | 0.84% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 163.59 | 153.65 | 9.94 | 6.47% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 423.23 | 365.92 | 57.31 | 15.66% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 79.85 | 78.75 | 1.1 | 1.40% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 290.92 | 280.45 | 10.47 | 3.73% | Weekly | [4] Futures Market Review - The report presents figures such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, on - disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][9]. Spot Market Review - The report shows figures such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes figures such as the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of steel products are weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply side shows that steel mills are reducing production, while the demand side is weak due to the approaching festival. The cost - side support is weakening, and the steel market is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to the demand recovery after the festival [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Steel mills are reducing production. The weekly output of rebar at major steel mills nationwide is 1916800 tons (-81500 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3091600 tons (-500 tons). From a process perspective, the long - process rebar output decreased by 48100 tons, and the short - process output decreased by 33400 tons [4][34]. 3.2 Demand - As the festival approaches, demand is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1476400 tons (-287600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3055400 tons (-58700 tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 34800 tons, and that of hot - rolled coils is 25000 tons, with the trading volume of hot - rolled coils decreasing [4][43][47]. 3.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory accumulation has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has also accumulated. The total rebar inventory is 5195700 tons (+440400 tons), the social inventory is 3695200 tons (+395200 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 1536500 tons (+45200 tons). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 3592000 tons (+36200 tons), the social inventory is 2804500 tons (+21500 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 787500 tons (+15000 tons). The inventory of major steel products is 9401300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 491500 tons, and the billet inventory in Tangshan is 578000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49500 tons [6][50]. 3.4 Price - As of February 6, the national aggregated average price of rebar is 3306 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national aggregated average price of hot - rolled coils is 3284 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5 Basis - As of February 6, the basis of the main rebar contract is 143 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract is - 1 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [5]. 3.6 Raw Materials - The cost - side support is weakening. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 29 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.7 Other Market Indicators - The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 2285800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%; the electric furnace operating rate is 57.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.33%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 48.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59%. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [5][29]. 3.8 Industry - related Data - In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106900 tons. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108000 tons. From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the cumulative new housing construction area decreased by 20.4% year - on - year, the cumulative housing completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 13.4% year - on - year [60][64][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the steel price is expected to fluctuate. The price of the rebar 2605 contract rose by 0.03% in February. The global and Chinese crude steel production decreased in 2025. The rebar inventory accumulated in line with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal pattern but was still at a low level year - on - year. The demand side remained weak, and the rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [5][1][33] - Operational strategies: For single - side trading, take a bullish stance on dips; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures price**: The daily K - line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented [7] - **Spot price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and spread**: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific data analysis is provided [13] Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work conference, aiming to continue building a comprehensive macro - prudential management system and strengthen the central bank's macro - prudential management function [16] - In 2025, national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 73982.0 billion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. The steel industry's profit was 1098.3 billion yuan, up 299.2% year - on - year, while the coal mining and washing industry's profit was 3520.0 billion yuan, down 41.8% year - on - year [16] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and market demand was insufficient [16] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the whole year; the real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; and the personal housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [16] Supply - side and Demand - side Situations - **Supply - side**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills are mentioned, but no detailed data is provided [18][20] - **Demand - side**: In January 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, down 4% month - on - month; the purchasing manager index for the steel circulation industry was 47.1, down 0.9% month - on - month [24] Fundamental Analysis - In December 2025, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel production in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [32] - In 2025, China's crude steel production was about 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%, dropping below 1 billion tons for the first time since reaching its peak in 2020 [32] Market Outlook - At the end of January, the weekly social inventory of rebar was 3.264 million tons, up 7.7% month - on - month and down 27.5% year - on - year. The inventory accumulation conformed to the pre - Spring Festival seasonal rule, but the demand side remained weak. The rebar futures price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in February [33] Operational Strategies - Single - side trading: Take a bullish stance on dips - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6][34]

Report Title - "Macro Favorable but Demand Constrained, Steel Prices Fluctuate - Weekly Report 20260126" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased due to the weakening of terminal demand. The main inventory - accumulating variety was rebar, with increased production and decreased demand, showing off - season pressure. Although the inventory increased, the absolute inventory was still low. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both declined, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel exports showed certain resilience. In the short term, the contradiction of steel inventory accumulation was limited, and the raw material end did not show significant negative feedback pressure. Steel prices were supported but lacked strong driving force and would fluctuate [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Supported by macro - favorable factors, steel prices first fell and then rose. The weekly price slightly declined, and the basis narrowed. The inventory of rebar increased, and the decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Terminal demand was limited [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton with a weekly change, and the futures warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 43193. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes in factory and social inventories [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar weekly output was 199.55 tons (up 4.86% week - on - week and 14.60% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.41 tons (down 0.96% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both slightly declined [15][16][19]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly decreased to +61 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton week - on - week and 53 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit slightly recovered to +1 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The apparent consumption of rebar was 185.52 tons (down 2.53% week - on - week and up 58.69% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 309.96 tons (down 1.34% week - on - week and up 2.44% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coil declined [27][31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased, with both factory and social inventories rising. The total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (up 3.20 week - on - week and down 6.44% year - on - year). The decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed, with a slight increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 357.78 tons (down 1.26% week - on - week and up 6.32% year - on - year) [32][36][37]. Downstream - In the real - estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.80% week - on - week and 32.32% year - on - year, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 49% week - on - week and 69% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in December 2025, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [41][43][44]. 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread widened, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal slightly widened [48][53]

Market Overview - As of January 21, the price of rebar is 3240 CNY/ton, with a decrease in outflow to 36,000 tons, down by 8,000 tons compared to the same period last week [1] - In Hangzhou, rebar inventory increased to 470,000 tons, up by 10,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Changjiang Steel adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials in Hefei, maintaining rebar prices at 3300 CNY/ton, while increasing the price of wire rod and rebar by 20 CNY to 3560 CNY/ton [1] Industry Insights - According to Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures, seasonal demand has weakened market transactions, with a slight decrease in rebar production and a temporary rebound in apparent demand, but overall demand remains weak [2] - New Century Futures reported a slight increase in supply due to delayed resumption of production at some steel mills, with apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 29,300 tons to 826,120 tons [3] - Inventory for five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons to 12,470,100 tons, indicating weak purchasing willingness among traders, which may lead to continued low inventory operations [3] - The current steel market is in a demand off-season with a weak fundamental outlook, leading to continued price fluctuations [2][3]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The price of rebar is expected to continue to fluctuate. Traders should focus on the support level of MA5 and the production situation of steel mills. The current situation is a game between expectations and reality, and the steel price is stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be fluctuating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Traders are advised to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the steel price stabilizing in a fluctuating manner [2]. Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, increasing rebar output and weakening the positive effect of low supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators remaining at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved and will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In summary, although the positive commodity sentiment has led to a rebound of rebar futures prices from low levels, the rebar fundamentals are weakly stable under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. The steel price in the off - season is still under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [3].