Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines and dragging down the market. In the short - term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The 09 contract entered the delivery month with weak buying and delivery interest, so the futures price moved from premium to flat or discount, dragging down other contracts. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources had weak sales, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises initiated the 8th price increase, but most steel mills didn't respond, and some planned price cuts, resulting in a market game [3] - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi's main production areas cut production due to geological issues in Lvliang and stricter safety inspections in Linfen. Next week, coal production is likely to rise slightly, but before September 3, main production areas will focus on safety, and some mines may have short - term production cuts [3] - Steel mills' profitability rate remains above 60%, with low willingness to cut production. During the parade, steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei are expected to cut production from August 31 to September 3, with a 40% reduction, lower than previous similar events. They are expected to resume production after September 4 [3] Attention Points - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产情况 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand for raw materials remains relatively high, while the reduction in coal mine production is lower than expected, and mines are slightly accumulating inventory. In the short term, market sentiment is still fluctuating, and coal and coke prices are oscillating. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated overall and weakened at night. Last week, the coal mine accident and the increasing expectation of overseas interest rate cuts led to a rise in commodities only on Monday, and then the prices weakened again. There is no further upward driving force in the short - term market. Attention should be paid to recent steel mill production restrictions. [3] Spot Market - On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mine points have weak sales, and the prices are stable for the time being. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, and mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. [3] Steel Mill Data - This week's data shows that steel mills have not significantly reduced production, and molten iron production remains high. The overall intensity of production restrictions is weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of steel mills is 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared with last year. The daily average molten iron production is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared with last year. [3] Coal Mine Situation - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3rd, main production area coal mines will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts. [3]

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated while apparent demand declined. The rebar basis weakened, but the hot-rolled coil basis was relatively strong. In the medium term, steel mill production remains high, and demand seasonally declines in August, leading to inventory increases. There is an expectation of production cuts in mid - to late August. In the short term, steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and production cuts can relieve the pressure on the peak season from high production and trader inventory. Steel prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, and the market needs to wait for clear peak - season demand. Support levels for hot - rolled coil and rebar are around 3400 yuan/ton and 3150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. Fundamentally, global iron ore shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the amount of maintenance decreased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly at a high level, remaining around 240 million tons per day. However, downstream apparent demand decreased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mill equity ore inventory increased month - on - month. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, hot metal production in August is expected to decline slightly at a high level, with an average of around 236 million tons per day. Steel mill profits support raw materials, and there is a seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore. Due to the off - season and weakening steel apparent demand, recent finished steel prices fell again, and iron ore followed suit. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. The sixth round of price increases was implemented, and the seventh round started on the 19th. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, coking profits improved, and coke enterprise operations increased slightly. On the demand side, blast furnace hot metal fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand remained resilient. It is expected that hot metal production will decline slightly in August. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventory continued to decrease, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. Overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking needs, and there is still an expectation for the seventh round of coke price increases. Coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, and prices fluctuated sharply recently. Spot auction prices for some coal types loosened, and Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. Domestic coking coal auctions weakened, and after a rapid price increase, downstream purchasing willingness declined, with some coal types experiencing price drops, but overall it remained stable. On the supply side, coal mine operations decreased month - on - month, shipments slowed down, and coal mines started to slightly reduce prices to make concessions, easing market supply and demand. Coal mine de - stocking slowed down significantly. In terms of imports, Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures, and due to high prices, downstream users were cautious about restocking. On the demand side, coking operations increased slightly, blast furnace hot metal production fluctuated at a high level, and downstream restocking demand slowed down. Considering production cuts by Hebei steel mills before the parade, hot metal production in August may decline to around 236 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine de - stocking slowed down, port inventory at the border increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and downstream restocking demand weakened. Overall inventory is at a medium level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 32 - 34 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices decreased by 19 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan, and the cost of converter rebar increased by 5 yuan. Profits for hot - rolled coil in different regions showed different changes, with East China increasing by 13 yuan, North China decreasing by 7 yuan, and South China increasing by 3 yuan. Rebar profits in different regions also had different trends [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average hot metal production increased by 0.2 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.4 to 871.6 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 to 220.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 to 315.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.6 to 1416.0 million tons, a 3.0% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 30.5 to 587.2 million tons, a 5.5% increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8 to 357.5 million tons, a 0.2% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.5 to - 40.0, a 9.6% decrease, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.0 to 18.0, a 12.5% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.5 to 22.0, a 7.3% increase [3]. Supply and Demand - Weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 359.9 to 3406.6 million tons, an 11.8% increase. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 94.7 to 2476.6 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national iron ore import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 million tons, an 8.0% increase. The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 12.8 to 334.7 million tons, a 4.0% increase. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 110.5 to 7080.0 million tons, a 1.5% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel production decreased by 352.4 to 7966.0 million tons, a 4.2% decrease [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 13.2 to 13819.27 million tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 123.1 to 9136.4 million tons, a 1.4% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0 days, a 5.0% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. The 09 - contract of coke decreased by 1.1%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 1.6%. The 09 - contract of coking coal decreased by 4.2%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 3.5%. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke production: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.4 million tons, a 0.4% increase, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase. Coking coal production: Raw coal production decreased by 2.3 to 856.6 million tons, a 0.3% decrease, and clean coal production increased by 0.4 to 439.4 million tons, a 0.14% increase. Coke demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 240.7 million tons, a 0.1% increase [5]. Inventory - Coke inventory: Total coke inventory decreased by 19.7 to 887.4 million tons, a 2.2% decrease. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.2 to 62.5 million tons, a 10.4% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.5 to 609.8 million tons, a 1.54% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 3.0 to 215.1 million tons, a 1.4% decrease. Coking coal inventory: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 0.2 to 111.9 million tons, a 0.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 11.0 to 976.9 million tons, a 1.1% decrease, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.9 to 805.8 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and port inventory decreased by 21.9 to 255.5 million tons, a 7.9% decrease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of poor credit data and a month - on - month increase in steel inventory. The iron ore market has a falling market sentiment and is oscillating. The coking coal and coke market has the sixth round of coke price increase implemented and is also oscillating. The thermal coal market has high daily consumption and rising coal prices [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures contracts declined slightly, and the spot market had average transactions with 91,282 tons of building materials sold nationwide. July's financial data showed negative private - sector credit growth and government financing boosting social financing. Steel inventory increased and production and sales declined according to Ganggu data [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production and sales are in the off - season with a slight increase in inventory. Plate is affected by Tangshan's production restrictions with marginal improvement in sentiment. Before the parade, production restrictions on steel mills are frequent, and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, it's difficult for steel mills to cut production autonomously due to good profits. Raw material prices are firm, and the steel fundamentals have few contradictions with strong support on the futures market. Future focus is on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated, and the prices of mainstream spot varieties rose slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 842,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.57 million tons (8 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 383.08% (with 1.38 million tons from mines) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments declined seasonally in July, but with rising prices, supply has strong support. Pig iron production remains high, steel profits are strong, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is high. There are no large - scale overhauls in the short term, so iron ore consumption and demand are resilient. In the long run, the iron ore supply - demand is still slightly loose. Future focus is on pig iron production and floating cargo changes [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black building materials commodities on the futures market declined collectively, and the main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated downward. The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. For imported Mongolian coal, customs clearance restrictions remain in place, and port traders are reluctant to sell due to high - level fluctuations in the futures market. The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented, 523 sample mines had a slight increase in clean coal inventory, and raw coal inventory reduction slowed down with a slight decline in production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mine supply recovery is slow, and imported coal customs clearance is restricted, so the overall supply is tight. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down their procurement and mainly purchase for rigid demand. For coke, affected by rising coking coal prices, some coking enterprises are showing signs of losses. Coupled with Shandong's environmental protection production restrictions on September 3, coke supply is tightening. Although steel mills' profits have narrowed and pig iron production has declined, it is still at a high level in the same period, supporting demand. In the short term, coking coal and coke futures are restricted by the supply side. Future focus is on supply recovery progress, subsequent coke price increases, and the sustainability of high - level pig iron production [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The coking coal strategy is to oscillate, the coke strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the main production areas continued to be strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and after rainfall, some chemical plants and surrounding power plants are actively replenishing stocks. Large - scale purchasers at stations have increased their demand, and pit - mouth coal prices remain firm. At ports, the inventory at northern ports continues to decline, shipping is seriously inverted, high - quality resources are relatively scarce, and traders are strongly holding prices with quotes more likely to rise than fall. For imported coal, with rising temperatures, the port arrival cost has increased, and imported coal quotes continue to rise [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Safety inspections in production areas are stricter, some over - producing mines are shut down for rectification, and some previously shut - down mines are under re - inspection. The overall supply is still tight. Coal daily consumption remains high, inventory continues to decline, and the coal fundamentals are good. Coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy content provided.

Core Insights - The overall price index for Linyi Mall increased to 102.74 points, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.13 points or 0.13% [1] Group 1: Steel Products - The weekly price index for steel products rose to 98.86 points, with a week-on-week increase of 1.32 points [1] - All subcategories, including medium materials, construction steel, board materials, and pipes, experienced price increases [1] - The rise in steel prices is attributed to upstream steel mills limiting production and increasing raw material prices, despite limited downstream demand [1] Group 2: Apparel and Accessories - The weekly price index for apparel and accessories decreased to 104.50 points, with a week-on-week decline of 0.19 points [2] - Both clothing and accessories saw price drops, particularly in men's wear, children's wear, and footwear, as retailers prepare for autumn collections and clear summer stock [2] Group 3: Board Materials - The weekly price index for board materials fell to 96.61 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 points [3] - The market for board materials is sluggish, with reduced terminal demand and falling prices for raw materials like rubber and logs, leading manufacturers to lower prices to alleviate inventory pressure [3] Group 4: Construction and Decoration Materials - The weekly price index for construction and decoration materials dropped to 105.36 points, with a week-on-week decline of 0.17 points [4] - Significant price drops were noted in decorative materials, influenced by falling prices of upstream raw materials and increased wholesale volumes of products like flooring and glass adhesives [4] Group 5: Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment - The weekly price index for home appliances and audio-visual equipment decreased to 103.07 points, with a week-on-week decline of 0.05 points [5] - Prices for cooling appliances, purification devices, and personal electronics fell, driven by reduced seasonal purchasing enthusiasm and declining sales volumes [5] Group 6: Educational and Office Supplies - The weekly price index for educational and office supplies fell to 109.14 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.02 points [6] - Demand for educational and office management products weakened during the summer, leading to reduced purchasing by distributors and a decline in market transaction volumes [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: Repeatedly oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillating [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market saw significant long - position building and upward movement. Spot prices rose sharply, and mainstream steel mills' resource supply was low, causing spot resources to be tight. With rumors of anti - cut - throat competition and steel mill production cuts, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be oscillating with a bullish bias [1]. - Iron ore: The price of the main iron ore futures contract increased. Supply showed a slight increase, while demand (hot metal production) decreased slightly, and port inventories increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate repeatedly [1]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures market rose. The upstream coal mine inventory continued to decline, and the domestic coal mine production and Mongolian coal port clearance volume recovered. With the fourth round of coke price increases implemented and some plans for a fifth round, the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market rose. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and some coking enterprises planned a fifth round. There were rumors of steel mill production cuts, and steel mills' acceptance of price increases was fair. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1]. - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The market sentiment was volatile, and the "anti - cut - throat competition" meeting boosted confidence. The manganese ore price increased, driving up costs. If the industry controls production through self - discipline and the demand for rebar increases, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The short - term market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The production profit in July improved, and both production and demand increased marginally. With many important events at the end of the month, and no strong drivers for either bulls or bears, the short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.05%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 239,000 lots in positions. Spot prices in Tangshan and Hangzhou rose. Mainstream steel mills' resource supply was low, and there were rumors affecting the market [1]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 closed at 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (1.5%), with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while hot metal production decreased slightly, and port inventories increased [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1120.5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (1.82%), with a decrease of 55,424 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Upstream coal mine inventory decreased, and Mongolian coal port clearance volume recovered [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1633 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton (1.52%), with a decrease of 2,353 lots in positions. Port spot prices decreased. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and some coking enterprises planned a fifth round [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton, up 2.78%, with a decrease of 6,026 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. The market sentiment was volatile, and the cost was driven up by the rising manganese ore price [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 3.52%, with an increase of 769 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Production profit improved in July, and both production and demand increased marginally [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: For various varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 months) changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each variety also changed, with different trends in different regions [4]. - **Spot prices**: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions had various changes, such as increases in rebar, hot - rolled coil, and some ferrous alloys, and a decrease in coke at the port [4]. - **Profits and spreads**: Rebar's盘面利润 and different varieties' price ratios (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) also changed [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different contracts over different time periods [16][17][18][20][22]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][28][30][31][32][34][36]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes charts of the spreads between different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [38][39][41][42]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report shows the profit charts of rebar, including盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile. The price of rebar futures is likely to oscillate, and the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets may also show a weak and volatile pattern [1][3][4][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Rebar - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 185 (+5) [1]. - Macroscopically, Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high - tariffs on China on April 22, but China emphasized that no economic and trade negotiations had been carried out. The Politburo meeting on April 25 showed no strong stimulus signals [1]. - Industrially, the apparent demand for rebar declined, production remained stable, and the inventory removal speed was still fast. Steel demand usually declines seasonally in mid - to late May, and the peak season window in the first half of the year is short. There was speculation about steel mill production restrictions last Friday, but no official document has been issued yet [1]. - In terms of valuation, the rebar futures price has fallen to near the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, only higher than the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a relatively low level. In terms of driving factors, the China - US tariff policy is expected to have repeated games, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies in China in the short term is small. The real supply and demand are acceptable, but tariffs affect exports and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to whether the production restriction policy is implemented [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures market oscillated. Trump's statement about possible tariff reduction eased international trade tensions. The pig iron output increased unexpectedly, leading to expectations of a peak and subsequent decline. There were also concerns about the sustainability of exports [1]. - In terms of supply, global shipments were basically the same as last week, with an increase in Australian shipments and a decrease in Brazilian shipments. The port throughput decreased, some berthing pressure was released, and the port inventory increased [1]. - In terms of demand, pig iron output increased significantly, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased. Steel mills' resumption of production accelerated this week, finished product prices were stable, and steel mills' production enthusiasm increased. There were rumors of crude steel production restrictions last weekend, but no specific policy documents were seen. Even if true, the 50 million - ton production restriction is small compared to the total, and it is difficult to form a positive feedback. The iron ore market is in a stage of strong supply and demand but is about to enter the traditional off - season. Considering the possible peak of pig iron output and continued international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 720 pressure level [1][3]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, coal mines in major producing areas maintained stable production. Some coal types adjusted their quotes slightly due to inventory pressure, but the overall inventory pressure was controllable, and mainstream coal mines were reluctant to lower prices. Mongolian coal supply was limited due to low customs clearance at the Mongolian border and a sluggish auction market, and the support for port quotes weakened [4]. - In terms of demand, coking and steel enterprises maintained high operating rates, and rigid demand provided some support for coal prices. However, the slow repair of steel mill profits restricted the raw material replenishment space, and the market was skeptical about the sustainability of terminal demand. Downstream pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm was low, and the procurement rhythm of intermediate links slowed down significantly. The coking coal market may continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and the sustainability of high pig iron output [4]. Coke - In terms of supply, coke enterprises in major producing areas maintained normal production rhythms, and the overall capacity utilization rate remained stable [5]. - In terms of demand, the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces drove pig iron output to remain high, and the replenishment demand was released periodically. However, affected by the expected seasonal weakening of the terminal market, the procurement rhythm became more cautious. Some steel mills preferred stamp - charged coke with a higher cost - performance ratio, and the demand for top - charged coke was significantly differentiated. The market was skeptical about the external demand pressure in May and the resilience of steel demand, and steel mills' resistance to price increases of raw materials increased. The second - round price negotiation was deadlocked. The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term supported by blast furnace rigid demand, but attention should be paid to the risk of terminal demand falling short of expectations and negative feedback in the industrial chain. Future attention should be paid to changes in blast furnace pig iron output and the digestion rhythm of steel mill raw material inventories [5]. Industrial and Economic News - On April 28, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to issue the list of all projects for the "Two - Key" construction and central budgetary investment in 2025 by the end of June and set up new policy - based financial instruments to solve the problem of insufficient project construction capital [6]. - The "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" was released, with the number of items reduced from 117 to 106. It prohibits new production capacity of steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and coal chemical industry in key areas [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted measures for the 2025 Labor Day holiday. Starting from the settlement on April 29, the daily price limit for iron ore futures is 10% and the margin is 12%; for coke, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin remains unchanged; for coking coal, the daily price limit is 9% and the margin is 13% [6]. - As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the balance of personal housing loans was 38 trillion yuan, an increase of about 220 billion yuan, and a year - on - year increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared with the first quarter of last year [6]. - Trump signed an announcement on April 29 allowing a certain degree of compensation for automobile producers assembling cars in the US and importing auto parts. The compensation can offset part of the tariffs on auto parts, with a maximum of 3.75% of the retail price of the car in the first year and 2.5% in the second year. The 25% tariff on imported cars officially took effect on April 3, and the 25% tariff on key auto parts is planned to take effect on May 3 [6]. - The Dongguan Housing and Urban - Rural Development Bureau released a draft for soliciting opinions, encouraging new residential projects obtaining construction permits from May 1, 2025, to implement full - decoration. It also encourages the "sample - first" approach and a "menu - style" full - decoration model [6].