1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily steel review dated November 17, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Review 3.1 Futures Market - On November 14, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2601 first declined and then rebounded. The RB2601 contract closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the SS2601 contract closed at 12380 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [5] - In terms of position changes, the long - short position changes of various contracts were different. For example, the long position of RB2601 decreased by 1,147 hands, and the short position decreased by 3,601 hands [6] 3.2 Spot Market - On November 14, the prices of some rebar spot markets rose more than they fell, and the prices of individual hot - rolled coil markets declined. The rebar prices in Nanning, Tianjin, and Jinan rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Changchun fell by 10 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil price in Nanning fell by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract also had a golden cross. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2601 contract had a golden cross; the green column of the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days and was close to a golden cross [7] 4. Market Outlook - In terms of news, recently, coal supply - guarantee policies have been introduced, and the prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined significantly [8] - Fundamentally, previously, steel mills accelerated production cuts, raw material prices and steel costs declined under pressure, and steel mill profits significantly rebounded. With the concession of coal and coke, the iron ore price has stabilized in recent days, making steel prices relatively resistant to decline. The weekly demand decline of the five major steel products has narrowed, and the production of the five major steel products has continued to decline, leading to a faster reduction in steel social inventory [8][9] - In terms of raw materials, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports in the past 4 weeks decreased by 3.8% month - on - month, but it increased by 11.9% in the previous 4 weeks, and the overall supply of iron ore is still relatively abundant. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined to the lowest level since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continue to reduce coke inventory, the coke inventory at ports has increased in the past 6 weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly. The coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have increased by 22.7% and 16.8% respectively compared with the previous lows in August - September [9] - Considering the seasonal weak demand for steel, but with the accumulation of production - cut effects, there is an expectation that supply and demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that steel futures may first decline and then rebound, and the space for further decline is limited. It is advisable to try buying hedging or investment in the large basis range after mid - November, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the spot market and whether subsequent production data can stabilize temporarily [9] 5. Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement to maintain a healthy market competition order [10] - From January to October 2025, the national coke production was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [10] - In October 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and the growth rate accelerated by 6.4 percentage points compared with September [10] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the investment in the second industry was 1.48411 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; the investment in the third industry was 2.52429 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% [10] - In October 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the crude oil production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the crude oil processing volume was 63.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; the natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [10] - In October 2025, among 41 major industries, 29 industries had year - on - year growth in added value. The coal mining and washing industry increased by 6.5%, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 1.9%, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.4% [11] - From January to October 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, domestic loans were 121.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8%; foreign investment was 190 million yuan, a decrease of 37.5%; self - raised funds were 284.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%; deposits and prepayments were 232.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0%; personal mortgage loans were 108.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% [11] - From January to October 2025, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. At the end of October, the unsold commercial housing area was 756.06 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters compared with the end of September [11] - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [11] - In early November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.26 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.926 million tons, a 6.0% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.804 million tons, a 3.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.884 million tons, a 5.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month [11] - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.49 million tons, an increase of 860,000 tons or 5.9% compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 3.12 million tons or 25.3% compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 390,000 tons or 2.5% compared with the same ten - day period of last month; an increase of 1.83 million tons or 13.4% compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 800,000 tons or 5.4% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [11] - In early November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate; an increase of 2.34 million tons or 35.5% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 2 million tons or 28.9% compared with the same period of last year [11] - Shanxi Coking Coal stated on November 14 that it has no layout in the new energy field for the time being [11] - Changyuan Power's wholly - owned subsidiary's 100MW wind farm project in Babao Town, Songzi City, Hubei Province, was approved on November 14. The dynamic total investment of the project is 582.91 million yuan, and the static total investment is 572.5 million yuan [11] - In the week of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased during the fluctuation. As of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons compared with the same period of last week, the same as the same period of last month, and a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the same period of last year [11] - On November 12, the vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association met with the business and development executive vice - president of Vale, and they exchanged views on the operation and demand of the Chinese steel industry, Vale's iron ore production and operation, and the green and low - carbon development of the steel industry [11][12] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for the global oil surplus in 2026 for the sixth consecutive month, expecting the daily supply to exceed demand by about 4 million barrels [12] - In October 2025, India's electricity demand decreased by 5.2% year - on - year due to abnormal rainfall and lower temperatures [12] 6. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, steel mill inventory, social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][19][22][27][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The supply of iron elements is relatively loose, and the decrease in molten iron production by steel mills has alleviated inventory pressure. The apparent demand for five major steel products is higher than production, and inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory of flat - rolled products is relatively high year - on - year, and the pressure for winter stockpiling is greater than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter. The 1 - month contract for rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has dropped significantly, molten iron production has declined from its peak, and the restocking demand of steel mills is weak. The inventory pressure has increased. The previous macro - positive factors have been digested, and the decline in iron ore prices, molten iron production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The spot market has a third - round price increase, and there is still an expectation of further increases. On the supply side, the rebound in coking coal prices provides cost support, and the loss of coke production has narrowed after the price increase. On the demand side, environmental restrictions and the decline in molten iron production have suppressed the price increase. The overall inventory is slightly increasing, and the supply is tight. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a divergence between futures and spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines are resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase, but the recovery is limited. On the demand side, the restocking demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing, and downstream is actively restocking. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the short - term, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3220 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3304 to 3272 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 3305 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 10.0 tons to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 tons to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 tons to 602.5 tons, a 3.1% decrease [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3 (the value in the report is incomplete), a 5.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 tons to 916.4 tons, a 2.7% increase [2]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 835.9 to 829.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 - contract for various powders increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons to 3218.4 tons, a 58.6% increase. The global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons to 3213.8 tons, a 5.2% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons to 6604.6 tons, a 5.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 171.6 tons to 14714.08 tons, a 1.2% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 43 to 1729 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 tons to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 tons to 59.9 tons, a 2.1% increase [7]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 32 to 1253 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease [7]. Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 tons to 851.8 tons, a 0.4% increase. The clean coal production increased by 1.5 tons to 434.9 tons, a 0.3% increase [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 tons to 81.1 tons, a 10.2% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, a 2.2% increase [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "shockingly weak" [3] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic strong policy expectations pulse boost low - valued commodity prices, causing significant disturbances to the market. Due to holiday restocking, steel supply and demand improved this week with continuous inventory reduction, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure during the holiday. Considering the seasonal weakening of steel demand later, supply needs to be suppressed to relieve future inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory and raw material cost support [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3301 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - On September 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a 1.34 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 17.50 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 39.40 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [1][22] Consumption - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous period. Building material consumption increased by 3.4%, and plate consumption increased by 2.5% [1][26] Inventory - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 864.93 million tons, a 9.47 - million - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%. The total inventory was 1510.61 million tons, a 9.13 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%. The apparent consumption was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous week [1][30] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is "shockingly weak", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, but the gains narrowed. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil generally increased. The steel futures market may show an oscillating rebound in the future, but its strength is weaker than that of the stock index. It needs to wait for the stock index to reach its peak to change the current lukewarm market pattern. [7][9][11] - The coking coal market ended its nearly one-and-a-half-year downward trend in July 2025, with both futures and spot prices rebounding from the bottom. There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook for the Future 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 25, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets generally increased. The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Shenyang and other cities rose by 30 - 40 yuan/ton. [9] - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts showed a differentiated trend. The J and K values turned up, while the D value continued to decline. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar 2510 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD green bars of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract began to narrow. [9] 1.2 Outlook for the Future - News: Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September; the coal and coke market turned up significantly due to expectations of strengthened safety inspections after the Fujian coal mine accident. [10][11] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased for four consecutive weeks, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the social inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks to a new high since mid-May. The weekly apparent demand has increased after six consecutive weeks of decline. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output remains above 2.4 million tons per day. [11] - Financial Market: The domestic A-share market continued to rise, which may attract some futures market funds to the stock market, but also help boost the prices of coal, coke, steel, and ore commodities. [11] 2. Industry News - National Energy Administration: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. [12] - China Iron and Steel Association: In mid-August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 400,000 tons. [12] - Company Performance: New Steel Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan in the first half of 2025, turning a profit year-on-year; Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. had a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 920 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%. [12] - Coking Coal Market: In July 2025, the coking coal market ended its downward trend, and the market showed a pattern of "three leading rises, one decline, and one stability". There may still be a phased upward trend in August, but price increases may be limited. [13] - Customs Data: In July 2025, China's coal imports increased by 7.8% month-on-month to 35.609 million tons. [14] - US Anti-dumping Ruling: The US Department of Commerce ruled that if the current anti-dumping measures against carbon steel alloy wire rods imported from China are cancelled, the dumping margin of Chinese products will reach 110.25%. [14] - Steel Production Data: In July 2025, the global crude steel output was 150 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; Japan's crude steel output was 6.918 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.1%. [14] - VLCC Freight: As of August 24, 2025, the VLCC TCE increased by 31.7% week-on-week to $45,800 per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, factory and social inventories, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, daily average pig iron output, and apparent consumption of five major steel products, among others. [17][19][20]

Price and Basis - Futures prices have declined while the basis has strengthened, with steel billet prices down by 10 to 3080 yuan. The actual transaction price for rebar in East China is 3170 yuan per ton, with the October futures contract at a discount of 51 yuan to the spot price. Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3400 yuan per ton, with the main contract at a discount of 39 yuan to the spot price [1]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has seen fluctuations, with overall operating rates and output not recovering significantly. After a decline in inventory, there are signs of a potential accumulation again. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, while steel production remains high, and seasonal demand for steel is declining. Expectations for a contraction in coking coal supply persist, and while iron ore demand remains high, a slight accumulation is expected, leading to a weaker cost support on a month-on-month basis. As prices weaken, steel profits are declining, with profits ranked from high to low as follows: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1]. Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. Month-on-month, August production rebounded compared to July, mainly due to a significant increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6% month-on-month. The total production of the five major materials increased by 64000 tons to 8.78 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 58000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96000 tons to 3.25 million tons. Since July, production of the five major materials has exceeded demand, leading to inventory pressure due to last year's low production base in August [1][2]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major materials remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while the production decline was greater than the apparent demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major materials and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising and apparent demand remaining flat, while inventory has decreased year-on-year. Month-on-month, the seasonal decline was not significant, and the impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Apparent demand for rebar has decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major materials decreased by 22000 tons to 8.53 million tons, with rebar demand down by 5000 tons to 1.95 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 6500 tons to 3.21 million tons [2]. Inventory - This week saw a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with little increase in steel mill inventories. The inventory of the five major materials increased by 25000 tons to 14.41 million tons, with rebar inventory up by 20000 tons to 6.07 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory up by 4000 tons to 3.6144 million tons. By product type, rebar supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to significant inventory accumulation; for sheet materials, both supply and demand are weak, resulting in minimal inventory accumulation [2]. Outlook - Molten iron production remains stable, with weekly data indicating a slight increase in the production of the five major materials and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, alongside a rebound in apparent demand. Data shows signs of a bottoming out, but levels remain within the off-peak season. August demand saw a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to poor rebar demand, affecting the spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil, which has widened to around 290. The market remains weak, with steel prices declining. There is an expectation for a rebound in demand during the peak season from September to October, and considering the situation of steel demand and coking coal supply, steel prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern. A long position is suggested for trading, with October hot-rolled coil and rebar prices referenced at 3350 yuan and 3150 yuan, respectively [3][4].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to operate on the long side during the callback, and pay attention to the support levels of 3400 and 3200 yuan for the October contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively. Be cautious about chasing long positions. [1] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. The prices of steel billets decreased, while the prices of slab remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profits of rebar in some regions also increased. [1] - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2%, the rebar output increased by 4.8% (with the electric - furnace output increasing by 15.4% and the converter output increasing by 3.3%), and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5%. The increase in social steel inventory in the past two weeks was mainly due to the positive arbitrage of spot - futures traders. [1] - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.3%. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile trend. In the future, the iron water output in August will remain high, and the improvement of steel mill profits will support the raw materials. However, due to the weakening of steel apparent demand in the off - season, the previous trading logic has been overdrawn. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage operations. [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some iron ore varieties' warehouse receipt costs and spot prices changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.5%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 61.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.3%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume increased by 8.0%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 3.9%. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8%. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coke futures showed a trend of reaching the peak and then falling back, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The sixth round of price increase of coke has been officially implemented, and there may be further price increases in the future. However, due to factors such as over - drawn bullish expectations and exchange intervention, the current long - side logic has changed. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both speculative and arbitrage operations. For coking coal, similar to iron ore, it is also recommended to take profit and wait and see for single - side and arbitrage operations. [6] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some coke and coking coal varieties and their spreads changed. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased. The overseas coal prices of some varieties also changed. [6] - **Supply**: The weekly coke output of the full - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.4%, and the weekly coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 1.1%. [6] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The demand for coke is related to the pig iron output. [6] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.94%, the coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 5.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the port coke inventory increased by 1.4%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 5.7%, the coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 1.7%. [6]