Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on fully integrated HPAL nickel leaders in Indonesia and companies with captive/minority mining interests and transfer pricing capabilities [4][11]. Core Insights - The global nickel industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of approximately 4 million tonnes of supply and demand by 2026, where Indonesia will contribute around 65% [7][8]. - Indonesia's stricter mining rights quota approvals and higher resource taxes have become critical variables affecting global nickel supply, leading to increased state revenues and market sentiment volatility [2][8]. - Sulfur supply changes are profoundly impacting the production costs of Indonesian hydrometallurgical processing, which in turn affects the global supply of battery-grade intermediate products [9][10]. - Future nickel price movements will be influenced by Indonesian policies and sulfur cost volatility, with a current market characterized by tightening supply-side elasticity and subdued demand [10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - By 2026, global nickel supply and demand are expected to reach around 4 million tonnes, with Indonesia's contribution being approximately 2.6 to 2.7 million tonnes [7][8]. - The supply surplus in 2025 was about 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes, while 2026 is anticipated to achieve a balance or slight surplus, although uncertainties in Indonesian supply policies may disrupt this equilibrium [7][8]. Policy Impact - Indonesia's recent policies, including stricter mining rights quota approvals and higher taxes, have intensified market sentiment volatility and affected global supply elasticity [2][8]. - The implementation pace of these policies directly impacts the nickel industry's price volatility and supply dynamics [2][8]. Cost Factors - The reliance on sulfur imports for Indonesian HPAL operations, with 70% to 75% sourced from the Middle East, has led to increased production costs due to recent supply disruptions [9][10]. - Current production costs for MHP have risen to near break-even levels, with limited profits achievable through cobalt credits [9][10]. Price Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to be driven by Indonesian policies and sulfur cost fluctuations, with a potential for price caps if downstream producers reduce output in response to rising prices [10]. - The first half of 2026 is projected to see volatility and rebalancing in the nickel market, supported by high-cost production [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, affected by the double impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, the nickel ore trading in the Philippines was light and supply was limited. In Indonesia, the tightening of RKAB mining quotas and the approaching of the rainy season and Ramadan restricted supply growth. Overall, the price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - The price of high - nickel pig iron in February was strong, with the average price rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point. The upstream price support was strong, and the downstream rigid demand procurement drove the price up [12]. - The nickel intermediate product market in February showed a clear differentiation. The supply of MHP was reduced, and the price and nickel coefficient increased. The supply - demand of high - grade nickel matte was weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - In February, the nickel price rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. The domestic social inventory increased by 7391 tons to 76,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term. The operating range of Shanghai nickel in March is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and the operating range of LME 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was limited, and the supply growth in Indonesia was restricted. The overall price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron was strong, with the upstream supporting the price and the downstream rigid demand increasing the volume [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The MHP market was in short supply, and the high - grade nickel matte market was weak. The price of sulfur declined [12]. - **Refined nickel**: The price rose slightly in February, the domestic social inventory increased, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile. It was recommended to operate in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton for LME 3M contract [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price was in a high - level wide - range shock in February. It fell sharply at the beginning of the month and then rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of February 27, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.46% month - on - month [17]. - The import nickel premium was stable at a low level after the Spring Festival, indicating a loose spot supply [19]. - The nickel iron price rose steadily, the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron returned to normal, and the nickel sulfate price fluctuated with the nickel price [22]. 3. Cost Side - The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rose to 70.24 US dollars per ton, and the price of wet - process ore rose to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][30]. - In January, the nickel iron output in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron [33]. - In January, due to the sharp increase in MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron, the output of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly [37]. - The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [40][42]. 4. Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the national refined nickel output was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [47]. - In January 2026, the domestic stainless steel output was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November, and the inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [50]. - Global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 9073 tons compared with the same period last month [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate output was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [61][63]. - The production profit rate of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the global primary nickel supply was generally on the rise, and the demand also showed an upward trend. There was a supply surplus in each period, and the surplus showed an increasing trend [69]. - The supply - demand gap of global refined nickel also showed an increasing trend in general, and the proportion of the supply - demand gap in the overall supply - demand situation was relatively large [69]. - The global refined nickel visible inventory continued to increase [69].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel price has recently shown a volatile consolidation pattern, with the fundamentals continuing the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although the market expects a significant contraction in Indonesian nickel supply due to quota reduction, the previous increase in nickel price has led to a short - term increase in supply and continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. In the future, the nickel fundamentals still have a repair expectation. The raw material ore price has risen significantly, and the rainy - season disturbances and the delay of the MOMS system review still restrict the supply. The nickel ore premium may increase further, and the cost support of the nickel industry chain is strong, which is expected to provide bottom - line resilience for the price [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - **Futures**: Last week, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 138,000 yuan/ton, closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 141,100 yuan/ton and a low of 129,300 yuan/ton, down 5.83% for the week. The stainless - steel main contract opened at 14,100 yuan/ton, closed at 13,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 14,115 yuan/ton and a low of 13,420 yuan/ton, down 3.32% for the week [9][79]. - **Spot**: As of February 9, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by 750 yuan/ton to 139,450 yuan/ton, a 0.53% week - on - week decrease; the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 144,150 yuan/ton, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; the imported nickel price decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 134,600 yuan/ton, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease. The 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton [16][79]. - **Import and Export**: As of February 6, the LME nickel price decreased by 320 US dollars/ton to 17,235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% week - on - week decrease. The electrolytic nickel import profit and loss decreased by 69.9 yuan/ton to - 476.27 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic nickel export profit and loss increased by 265.28 US dollars/ton to - 1,178.88 US dollars/ton [21]. 3.2 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - **Price**: As of February 9, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were 30, 64.5, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +5, +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were 22 and 60.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of +0.5 and +5.9 [34]. - **Supply**: The Philippine nickel ore output is usually at a very low level at the beginning of the year. The Surigao and Homonhon mining areas are in the rainy - season peak, while Palawan and Zambales are in the dry season and are the main sources of export supply. Some Indonesian mining areas are still affected by rainfall, and the production and circulation efficiency is low. The supply - side increment is limited due to the RKAB quota reduction expectation and the review of the forestry working group [34][4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 230,000 tons to 6.83 million wet tons, a 3.26% week - on - week decrease [37]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - **Production**: As of January 2026, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.3 to 42,000 nickel tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ice - nickel metal production in January 2026 was 41,500 tons, a 4.06% month - on - month increase and a 31.05% year - on - year increase [42]. - **Price**: As of February 9, the MHP FOB price decreased by 1,234 US dollars/ton to 14,870 US dollars/ton, a 7.66% week - on - week decrease; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 1,270 US dollars/ton to 15,362 US dollars/ton, a 7.64% week - on - week decrease [42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 6,300 tons to 37,700 tons, a 20.06% month - on - month increase and a 25.54% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,398 tons to 51,300 tons, a 9.38% week - on - week increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,002 tons to 285,300 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 2,582 tons to 73,200 tons, a 3.65% week - on - week increase [51]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's nickel sulfate monthly production decreased by 1,414 tons to 33,600 nickel tons, a 4.04% month - on - month decrease [63]. - **Demand**: Before the Spring Festival, the downstream precursor and battery factory stocking was basically completed, with only rigid - demand restocking. The high - nickel ternary production scheduling slowed down seasonally, and the trading was light [63]. 3.6 Ferronickel - **Production**: As of January 2026, the national ferronickel production (metal content) increased by 2,000 tons to 23,200 tons, a 9.47% month - on - month increase; the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 nickel tons, a 6.51% month - on - month decrease [73]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ferronickel cost pressure intensified, and the profit space significantly narrowed. The high cost was difficult to be passed on to the downstream due to weak demand [75]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Production**: As of January 2026, China's stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a 5.08% month - on - month increase and a 24.83% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the production scheduling in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a 22.62% month - on - month decrease and a 12.49% year - on - year decrease [82]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 12,300 tons to 964,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 9,705 tons to 53,500 tons, a 22.18% week - on - week increase [85]. - **Cost**: As of February 9, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 141 yuan/ton to 13,696 yuan/ton, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease [88].

Group 1 - Nornickel reports that the global nickel market will experience a surplus for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with a surplus of approximately 240,000 tons, primarily due to continuous supply growth, especially from Indonesia, which accounts for 66% of global supply [1] - Nickel consumption is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year to 3.62 million tons in 2025, driven by the stainless steel (4% growth), alloys (5% growth), specialty steel (2% growth), and battery (2% growth) industries [1] - Nickel supply is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year to 3.86 million tons, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion in Indonesia, with NPI production in Indonesia expected to rise by 15% [1] Group 2 - The nickel market outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with high uncertainty regarding supply-demand balance depending on the implementation of Indonesia's production cut plans [2] - If the situation develops according to the most aggressive scenario, the market may achieve balance or face a supply gap, while maintaining the status quo could increase the surplus to 275,000 tons [2] - Nickel demand is expected to continue steady growth, increasing by 6% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, driven by stainless steel production and supported by other industries [2] Group 3 - Indonesia's government has been taking measures since August 2025 to curb supply surplus and improve industry governance, including strengthening licensing regulations and adjusting mining quotas [3] - Reports suggest that Indonesia may reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons by December 2025, which could lead to market balance or a supply gap [3] - Only Indonesia can bring the nickel market closer to balance through strategic production control and a more value-focused policy framework [3]

Group 1: Nickel Supply - Indonesia holds significant nickel reserves of 55 million tons, accounting for 42% of global reserves, making it the most important nickel reserve country [1][2] - Global nickel production is projected to reach 3.52 million tons in 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, and is expected to rise to 3.81 million tons in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% growth [1][2] - Indonesia's nickel production is anticipated to be around 2.2 million tons in 2024, representing approximately 60% of global supply, and is expected to increase to 67% by 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Nickel Smelting and Profitability - The analysis of Indonesia's nickel smelting indicates that the hydrometallurgical HPAL process is currently profitable due to high cobalt prices, while the pyrometallurgical RKEF process faces challenges due to high nickel ore prices and poor downstream nickel-iron prices [3] Group 3: Nickel Demand - Stainless steel remains the dominant demand driver for nickel, with a projected demand of around 2.3 million tons in 2025, accounting for 65% of total demand [5] - The demand for ternary batteries is expected to grow at a rate of about 7%, with an estimated total demand of 480,000 tons in 2025, representing 14% of the overall demand [5] - Global stainless steel production is forecasted to reach 62.62 million tons in 2024, showing a year-over-year increase of over 7% [5] Group 4: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Recent Indonesian government policies have tightened regulations on the development of strategic minerals, particularly nickel, reversing previous expectations of a relaxed market [6] - If Indonesia's quota policy of 250 million tons is implemented, nickel supply may decrease by approximately 8% in 2026, potentially leading to a market shortfall of around 100,000 tons [7] Group 5: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - Nickel has been notably absent from the metal bull market from 2024 to the present, with a price increase of only 3% since 2024, significantly lower than other metals [8] - Should supply-demand gaps arise due to Indonesian policies, there may be potential for a significant price rebound, making companies like Likin Resources and Huayou Cobalt attractive investment opportunities [9]

Summary of Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The nickel industry is significantly influenced by Indonesia's export ban and quota policies, which were implemented in 2019 to restrict raw material exports and promote domestic processing [1][4] - Indonesia holds approximately 48% of the world's nickel reserves, with a total global reserve of about 130 million metric tons [2] - The nickel market is expected to experience an oversupply in 2026, leading to price pressure, despite some short-term price support from changes in Indonesia's tax rates [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The nickel market is projected to face a supply-demand imbalance in 2027 due to Indonesia's plans to tighten mining quotas, potentially leading to a supply shortage and price increases [1][2][3] - The demand for nickel is cyclical, with traditional peaks during the fourth quarter driven by stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) tax policy adjustments [1][6] - **Impact of Indonesian Policies**: - Indonesia's mining policies have reshaped the global supply chain, pushing countries like China to establish smelting operations in Indonesia [4] - Recent announcements from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) regarding reduced mining quotas have significantly affected market sentiment, causing price fluctuations [8][12] - **Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations**: - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in nickel price movements, with recent government statements causing sharp price declines despite unchanged fundamentals [12][29] - The government aims to maintain nickel prices at moderate levels to prevent excessive production from other countries while ensuring tax revenue [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production and Consumption**: - The nickel industry chain consists of four main segments: mining, intermediate products, refined products, and downstream applications [5][7] - The largest consumption of nickel is in stainless steel production, accounting for about two-thirds of total demand, while the electric vehicle sector represents around 14% [17][18] - **Future Projections**: - By 2027, China's refined nickel production capacity is expected to reach 470,000 tons, with ongoing enthusiasm for production despite limited domestic demand [19] - The global nickel market is anticipated to face a surplus of approximately 420,000 tons in 2025 and 430,000 tons in 2026, although actual surplus may be lower due to significant stockpiling actions in China [16] - **Challenges in the Nickel Market**: - The nickel market faces challenges from high raw material prices and historical inventory levels in stainless steel, which may lead to production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances [25][29] - **Regulatory Changes**: - Indonesia has implemented new policies allowing mining companies to carry over unused quotas from previous years, which may alleviate some supply concerns [13][10] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the nickel industry, highlighting the critical influence of Indonesian policies, market dynamics, and future projections.

Group 1 - The U.S. military operation against Venezuela was publicly detailed, with President Trump and Defense Secretary discussing the use of air, land, and sea forces [1][4] - The operation resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, who are now facing drug and arms trafficking charges in the U.S. [4][12] - The U.S. plans to allow major oil companies to invest billions in Venezuela to repair its severely damaged oil infrastructure [5][7] Group 2 - Trump stated that the U.S. will maintain control over Venezuela until a safe and proper power transition occurs, without setting a timeline for withdrawal [8][9] - The military operation, named "Absolute Resolve," involved over 150 aircraft and was executed in response to a request from the Justice Department [12][14] - The U.S. retains all military options and has warned other nations, including Colombia and Cuba, regarding potential threats to U.S. sovereignty [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged, entering a "demon nickel" phase, influenced by rising prices of sulfur, cobalt, copper, and lithium carbonate, with significant policy changes from Indonesia affecting supply dynamics [3][6][10]. Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - As of December 30, 2023, the main nickel futures in Shanghai reported 134,240 RMB per ton, a 3.52% increase, marking the highest level since March 2023, while the London Metal Exchange reported 16,630 USD per ton [3]. - The international spot market for battery-grade nickel sulfate was priced at 26,100 RMB per ton, and electroplating-grade nickel sulfate at approximately 28,000 RMB per ton [3]. - Nickel prices are closely tied to Indonesia's policies, which may reduce nickel production by one-third from 379 million tons to around 250 million tons by 2026, indicating a potential shift from oversupply to supply shortage [7][11]. Group 2: Impact of Indonesian Policies - The Indonesian government plans to reduce mining quotas, which is expected to stabilize the market and balance supply and demand amid current imbalances [8]. - Domestic companies, such as Shengtun Mining, have reacted to these policy changes, with Shengtun announcing the termination of a 40,000-ton capacity project in Indonesia due to the ongoing adjustments in mining policies [4][6]. - The announcement of production cuts has led to stock price fluctuations, with companies like Liqin Resources seeing an over 8% increase in stock price following the news [7]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Nickel is expected to become a "star" in the 2026 metal market, with its price volatility likely to impact capital markets significantly [9][10]. - The demand for nickel in the stainless steel industry remains higher than in the new energy sector, but the long-term growth in battery applications, particularly high-nickel ternary batteries, is anticipated to drive nickel prices higher [11]. - The current market dynamics, including rising nickel sulfate prices and reduced production, suggest a tightening supply situation that could support nickel prices in the future [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area of the Philippines has tightened the shipment volume of nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore has been stable, providing strong cost support at the mine end. Affected by macro - sentiment, nickel prices are under short - term pressure. However, the strong cost resilience in the fourth quarter and potential disturbances in the RKAB approval process in Indonesia will limit the further decline of nickel prices, while upward breakthroughs are still restricted by fundamentals [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - In the nickel market, prices are within the oscillation range. In the stainless - steel market, the upward space of steel prices is restricted by factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support [3][4][5]. Industry News Update - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy and GEM signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. From 2026 - 2028, GEM is expected to supply 150,000 tons of various battery raw materials and products annually, totaling 450,000 tons in three years [7]. - The London Metal Exchange received an application for the listing of the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association announced an increase in the reference price of domestic nickel ore trade in October 2025 (Phase II) [7]. - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a surplus in global refined nickel supply in August 2025 and from January - August 2025 [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources formulated rules for the online approval of the next - year's RKAB for mines starting in October each year [7]. Market Price Performance Futures and Spot Prices - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 fell 1.28% last week. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.85% week - on - week to $122,000 per ton as of November 3 [9][13]. - The price of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 0.76% week - on - week to $123,350 per ton, with a premium increase of $150 to $2,600 per ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to $121,150 per ton, with a stable premium [13]. Export and Import Windows - As of October 31, the LME nickel price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week to $15,250 per ton. The electrolytic nickel import and export losses increased [18]. NPI and Sulfuric Acid Nickel Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.59% week - on - week to $923 per nickel point as of November 3. The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained stable, while the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased [27]. Supply - side Analysis Nickel Ore - As of October 31, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged week - on - week. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore also remained stable [32]. - Nickel ore port inventory decreased by 1.76% week - on - week to 10.06 million wet tons as of October 31. In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased by 3.51% month - on - month but increased by 34.43% year - on - year [35]. MHP and High - Grade Nickel Matte - As of October 31, the FOB price of MHP increased by 2.01% week - on - week to $13,422 per ton, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.86% week - on - week to $13,711 per ton [41]. - In October 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 0.74% month - on - month to 41,000 nickel tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 1.77% month - on - month to 22,200 tons [42]. Refined Nickel - In October 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 35,900 tons, an increase of 17.06% year - on - year [49]. - As of October 31, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 17.08% week - on - week to 31,400 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.60% week - on - week to 252,800 tons [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - In October 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly production increased by 6.66% month - on - month to 36,200 nickel tons. The raw material shortage limited capacity release, and the market supply was still tight [64]. Nickel Pig Iron - In October 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal volume) increased by 22.72% month - on - month to 28,100 tons. The production in Indonesia increased by 6.58% month - on - month to 149,100 nickel tons [77]. Demand - side Analysis Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract ss2512 fell 1.21% last week. The spot price of the 304 variety decreased by $50 - $300 due to weak fundamentals [86]. - In October 2025, the estimated output of domestic stainless - steel mills' crude steel increased by 0.57% month - on - month. It is expected to decrease by 2.06% in November [89]. - As of October 31, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.36% week - on - week to 1.0311 million tons. The cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.05% week - on - week to $12,800 per ton as of November 3 [92][96]. China's Primary Nickel Balance Sheet - From May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply of nickel generally showed an upward trend, and the total demand also increased steadily. The supply - demand balance remained positive, indicating a supply surplus in the market [4].