备兑看涨策略则适合持有标的期货多单或现货的投资者，在预期商品价格震荡偏涨、短期难以突破关键阻力位 时使用。操作方式为：在持有标的资产的基础上，卖出对应数量的虚值看涨期权，通过收取权利金来增强组合 收益。当标的价格未涨超行权价时，投资者可获得标的持仓收益与权利金收入。若价格大涨，标的部分的收益 会被行权价锁定，但权利金可部分抵消持仓成本；若价格下跌，权利金则能对冲部分亏损。该策略本质上是通 过牺牲部分上行收益，换取额外的现金流，适合保守型交易者提升持仓性价比。 下跌行情下的期权策略。当预期商品价格将大幅下跌，且隐含波动率较低时，买入看跌期权是核心选择。该策 略赋予投资者在到期日或之前以行权价卖出标的的权利，最大损失为支付的权利金，最大收益为行权价减去标 的价格再扣除权利金。例如，铁矿石价格处于高位，但由于库存持续累积，投资者预期铁矿石价格后续将大幅 下跌，则可以买入看跌期权，在价格下跌过程中获得收益，且无需承担直接做空标的的无限风险。这种策略适 合对下跌方向判断明确，但希望控制风险敞口的投资者。 期权作为衍生品市场的重要组成部分，凭借权利金有限损失、兼具对冲与投机灵活性的特点，成为投资者应对 不同市场行情的重要 ...

【美股】截至收盘，道指涨289.30点，涨幅为0.61%，报47716.42点；纳指涨151.00点，涨幅为0.65%， 报23365.69点；标普500指数涨36.48点，涨幅为0.54%，报6849.09点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨超10%，Meta Platforms(META.US)涨超2%，AMD(AMD.US)涨超1%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨74.29点，涨幅0.31%，报23852.08点；英国富时100指数涨26.77点，涨幅 0.28%，报9720.70点；法国CAC40指数涨23.24点，涨幅0.29%，报8122.71点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 16.98点，涨幅0.30%，报5670.15点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨12.65点，涨幅0.08%，报16374.45点；意大利 富时MIB指数涨161.13点，涨幅0.37%，报43381.00点。 【原油】纽约市场1月交割的WTI原油下跌0.2%，收于每桶58.55美元。2月布伦特原油下跌0.8%，收于 每桶62.38美元。据报道，美国总统特朗普上周与委内瑞拉领导人马杜罗通话，讨论了潜在会面事宜。 两国紧张局势缓和将大幅降低石油的 ...

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 国内方面，10月各类机构持债行为发生反转，利率债供给延续放缓，但同业存单规模转为明显回升，广 义基金、券商等交易盘转为增持，银行转为减持，境外机构继续减持。受利率债供给放缓影响，商业银 行减配债券，不过我们认为未来几个月在存贷差增速放大背景下，商业银行对债券配置需求可能仍然较 高。10月交易盘持债力度明显回升，存单供给回升下，广义基金大幅增持债券，券商明显加大国债增持 力度。我们认为年末股市或震荡，风险偏好的潜在回落或带动非银资金对债券配置需求的继续回暖。 国开ETF（159650）投资标的为银行间市场国开债。政策性金融债的信用评级高、体量大、流动性好， 是值得考虑的投资标的。因此，国开ETF（159650）的产品特点具有流动性好，信用风险低，较低波动 的特点，风险收益比合理，可现金申赎、场内交易灵活，是短久期配置的较好工具。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下 本报告中的信息或所表达的意见不构成我公司实际的投资结果，也不构成任何对投资人的投资建议。 本报告中的数据出处若未加特别说明，均来自Wind ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk appetite among investors, emphasizing its impact on asset allocation, investment strategies, and market price fluctuations in a complex economic environment. It highlights the importance of measuring risk appetite to make informed investment decisions, especially in light of uncertainties in economic growth and market volatility [2]. Group 1: Risk Appetite Measurement Methods - **Volatility Indicators**: Volatility is a direct reflection of market risk, with the VIX index serving as a contrarian indicator of market fear. High volatility indicates low risk appetite, while low volatility suggests a higher willingness to take risks. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index is currently low, indicating that investors do not foresee significant systemic risks in the near future [2]. - **Liquidity of Funds**: Fund liquidity is another key indicator of market risk appetite. A shift of funds from high-risk to low-risk assets, or vice versa, reflects changes in risk appetite. The financing balance in the A-share market, which represents investors' willingness to use leverage for stock purchases, has recently reached historical highs, although its growth rate has begun to slow [4][5]. - **Policy Expectations**: Market expectations regarding future government support measures, including fiscal and monetary policies, significantly influence risk appetite. For instance, after a significant market drop due to tariff escalations, government interventions helped stabilize the market, leading to a recovery [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The article notes that by analyzing the driving factors of risk appetite, investors can assess whether asset prices are in a bullish or bearish environment. If asset prices show strong annualized returns but experience short-term volatility, and the factors driving the market are improving, it is advisable for investors to start positioning themselves [6]. - Conversely, if the risk appetite factors remain unchanged, it is recommended for investors to maintain their current asset allocations or strategies [6].

美联储理事Lisa Cook关于私人信贷领域"潜在的资产估值脆弱性"的警告，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，激起层层涟漪。隔夜信贷市场迅速恶化，投资级债券 和高收益债券的利差急剧扩大。这个规模达1.7万亿美元的市场一旦出现问题，其与金融体系的复杂关联可能引发连锁反应，这让习惯了廉价资金的华尔街 如坐针毡。 当英伟达的财报烟花变成市场丧钟，当比特币跌破9万美元的心理防线，华尔街正在经历一场由九个致命音符组成的黑色交响乐。高盛最新报告揭示了这场 史诗级暴跌背后的复杂机理，每一个因素都像精确制导的导弹，击穿了投资者的心理防线。 百度图片 科技信仰的崩塌：英伟达成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草 英伟达财报本该是市场的强心针，却意外成为压垮风险偏好的最后一根稻草。这家AI芯片巨头交出了超预期的成绩单，股价却高开低走最终收跌3%。高盛 顶级交易员John Flood的评论一针见血："真正的好消息没有得到回报，通常是一个坏兆头"。市场开始质疑，当最耀眼的明星都失去光芒，还有什么能支撑 科技股的天价估值？ image 百度图片 信贷市场的定时炸弹：美联储官员的警告成真 流动性荒漠：市场失去缓冲垫 高盛数据显示，标普500指数顶级买卖盘的 ...

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月20日的黄金深入分析 ·黄金在周四早盘重新尝试突破4100美元，期待美国就业数据的推动。 ·美元接近十天高位，风险偏好情绪抵消鹰派美联储会议纪要的影响。 ·黄金周三收盘于4075美元阻力位之上；相对强弱指数保持看涨。接下来会如何？ 黄金在周四早盘再次尝试突破4100美元，因美元（USD）在风险偏好的市场环境中暂停上涨，同时等待当天稍晚公布的至关重要的九月份非农就业数据 （NFP）报告。 然而，在芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）在市场收盘后发布的乐观业绩提供了极大缓解，并引发了全面的风险偏好反弹后，局势似乎再次转向黄金买家有 利。 市场的乐观情绪延续到亚洲交易时段，限制了美元的持续上涨，同时恢复了黄金向4100美元门槛的回升动能。 黄金的下一步上涨取决于美国就业数据的发布，这可能会改变市场对美联储下个月是否降息的预期。 预计非农就业数据将显示，美国经济在九月份新增5万个就业岗位，而八月份的新增就业岗位为2.2万个。失业率预计在同一时期保持在4.3%。与此同时， 预计九月份的平均时薪年增幅为3.7%，与八月份的增幅相同。 任何与预期的显著偏差都可能影响美 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by a combination of monetary policy expectations and market sentiment [1][4] - The World Gold Council's CEO for China highlighted three main challenges in gold investment: understanding the market, timing the investment, and holding onto the asset [2] - The decline in gold prices is seen as both a risk release and an opportunity, emphasizing that gold serves as a safety net rather than a quick profit generator [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has led to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [4] - A recovery in global risk appetite, due to easing geopolitical tensions, has resulted in funds moving away from gold to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] - Technical selling pressure has emerged as many investors sought to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, contributing to the recent price drop [4] Group 3 - Since November, international gold prices have dropped over 5%, while domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased by approximately 20-30 yuan per gram, yet remain about 15% higher than at the beginning of the year [4] - Investors face difficulties in understanding the multitude of factors influencing gold prices, leading to impulsive buying and selling behaviors [4] - The average gold price increase over the past three years has been over 20%, but more than 60% of investors exited early, missing out on further gains [4] Group 4 - Different strategies are recommended for various types of investors: immediate buyers should consider current prices for planned purchases, long-term holders should adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, and short-term speculators should be cautious due to market volatility [2][4] - It is crucial for all investors to choose reputable channels for purchasing gold and to be aware of buyback policies to ensure liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a weak rebound after hitting a six-and-a-half-month low, reflecting ongoing weak risk appetite in the market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Concerns over valuations and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month led to a sell-off in technology stocks, negatively impacting risk appetite [1] - Investors are currently focused on the delayed September U.S. non-farm payroll report set to be released on Thursday [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Performance - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, Bitcoin rose by 2.4% to $95,717 after previously touching a low of $92,988 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled market risk appetite, causing significant drops in gold and silver prices. Gold prices retreated, erasing last week's gains, and the premium of Shanghai gold converged to -2 yuan/gram. Silver premium widened to 340 yuan/gram, and the sentiment for Shanghai silver remained strong. With the U.S. government reopening, waiting for data verification, gold prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, and silver prices will oscillate [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices. U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance, European stock indexes declined across the board, U.S. bond yields rose, the dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.62% to $4084.4 per ounce. The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant drop in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 5.21% to $50.4 per ounce. The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [5][6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened significantly as the concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut and China - U.S. tariff escalation have improved. However, due to the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3; Time TBD: The sixth "Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion in the Fields of Economy, Finance, and Central Banking" conference jointly hosted by the European Central Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of Italy, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England; Time TBD: The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference from November 17 - 20; 16:15: Speech by the vice - president of the European Central Bank, de Guindos; 21:30: U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index; 22:00: Welcome speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference; 22:30: Speech by Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson; 22:45: Speech by the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane; 23:00: U.S. August construction spending; Next day 02:00: Fireside chat hosted by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari; Next day 04:35: Speech by Fed Governor Waller [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, but the long position decreased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 3308 to 105420. SPDR Gold ETF holdings fluctuated and decreased [4][32]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the long position increased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 8879 to 112852. Silver ETF holdings increased slightly and were still higher than the same period in the past two years. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6][34][43].