中信证券研报认为，日本良性通胀循环已较稳固，日本央行即将再次加息。去年夏季日本加息后的全球 市场动荡主要是由衰退预期升温和AI叙事动摇等美国因素造成，套息交易逆转只是加剧彼时避险情绪 的次要因素，去年的"黑色星期一"不太可能在今年重演。在美日央行政策分歧的背景下，美国因素才是 当前全球流动性与美元资产定价的核心主线。目前市场对AI叙事的质疑集中体现于业务模式较激进的 少数企业，而多数财务状况较稳健的AI龙头仍能维持市场信任，产业智能化热潮应能在中短期继续支 持美股龙头的业绩表现。长端美债在本轮风险管理式降息周期内的配置性价比不高，短端美债则可能受 益于准备金管理购买操作对流动性的技术性改善，后者较前者更好。 ...

债 券 研 究 12 月 FOMC 如期降息，但前瞻指引偏鹰，压缩了未来宽松空间。美联储提前重启 短端扩表成为最大意外，短期改善流动性。 投资要点： 风险提示：美联储政策超预期，海外债券市场系统性风险。 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.12 | | 021-38031722 | | --- | --- | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 12 月 FOMC 会议简评：眼下的鸽与未来的鹰 [Table_Authors] 王一凡(分析师) 本报告导读： 跨年攻势序幕有望开启 2025.12.08 压力测试下转债具备韧性 2025.11.24 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务 ...

来源：滚动播报 Aptus Capital Advisors的固定收益部门负责人John Luke Tyner在一份报告中称，鉴于就业市场放缓且通 胀担忧有限，美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）周三的降息是一次"风险管理式降息"。这位固定收 益部门负责人称，此次降息以及以往降息的滞后影响"将对美国很大一部分企业产生影响，鉴于美国经 济中中小企业的规模和范围，以及它们对短期融资的利用"。 ...

【资产配置快评】 美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表——12 月 美联储议息会议点评 2025 年第 8 期 ❖ 投资摘要： All of our reasoning ends in surrender to feeling. —Blaise Pascal 1. 美联储 12 月份议息会议宣布降息 25 个基点，把联邦基金利率区间从 4%- 3.75%降至 3.75%-3.5%。 2. 美联储上调明年美国经济增长预期，下调明年通胀预期，2026 年经济增长 预期值上调 0.5%至 2.3%，2026 年核心 PCE 预期值下调 0.1%至 2.5%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2026 年和 2027 年美联储可能各降息 1 次，2028 年可能 不会降息。中性利率继续维持在 3%不变。 证 券 研 究 报 告 4. 美联储购买短期美债，旨在对冲未来缴税高峰期对于货币市场产生的压力， 和货币政策立场无关。 5. 美联储降息支撑美国经济前景，美元和长期美债利率可能继续上行，海外 股市经过过去 12 个月动态估值收敛以后，2026 年或转向定价盈利前景变化。 ❖ 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 ...

摘要周一(12月8日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4207一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4210.49美元/盎 司，上涨0.33%，最高触及4218.70美元/盎司，最低下探4195.31美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 周一(12月8日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4207一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4210.49美元/盎司， 上涨0.33%，最高触及4218.70美元/盎司，最低下探4195.31美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向上涨 走势。 另外上周五公布的美国9月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%，核心PCE环比上 涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，这些数据基本符合预期，并未显着改变市场对美联储放松政策的预期。 同时，美国12月消费者信心指数从11月的51.0升至53.3，高于预期的52，这一改善提振了经济前景，支 持美联储无需大幅降息的观点。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 四小时级别技术面来看，macd快慢线还是位于零轴上方正值区，意味着趋势还是上涨，依旧低多为 主，结构上也是上涨，只不过波段处于震荡之中。因此关注关键价格4168以及4110支撑看涨。 一小时级别 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of silver prices and the expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting a potential rate cut in December and its implications for the silver market. Group 1: Silver Price Analysis - As of December 8, the spot silver price is trading at $58.50 per ounce, with a daily range between $57.52 and $58.61 [1] - The silver trading strategies indicate that the price remains above the 200-hour EMA, which is positioned at $56.30, providing bullish support [4] - The MACD has turned negative, suggesting a buildup of downward momentum, while the RSI is at 50.82, indicating a neutral stance [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Nomura Securities has revised its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing sufficient dovish signals for a "risk management-style rate cut" [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 86.2%, with a 13.8% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - Key upcoming data to watch includes consumer inflation expectations and weekly jobless claims, which may influence the Fed's decision [3]

"鹰式降息"的真正含义在于，美联储需要通过降息来稳定市场，但又不想让市场认为做多没有风险。因 此，鲍威尔可能会在降息的同时发出警告，强调未来政策的不确定性，并表示美联储依然关注通胀问 题。这种姿态管理旨在避免风险资产过度狂欢，从而防止通胀再次抬头。此次黄金价格的下跌并非终结 行情，而是为了给市场降温，避免过度乐观情绪带来的潜在风险。 来源：热点快报 市场反应：美元和国债收益率的变化 市场的反应也印证了这种不确定性。美元指数在加速下跌后突然企稳，显示出市场对美联储政策的观望 态度。与此同时，美国国债收益率曲线开始重新变陡。短端利率（如2年期国债）可能因降息预期而下 降，而长端利率（如10年期国债）则因为对未来通胀的担忧而不易下降。这种变化表明，市场对短期内 降息有所预期，但对长期经济前景仍持谨慎态度。 鹰式降息的真正含义 在消息面相对清淡的情况下，黄金价格意外跌破了4200美元。这一现象背后的原因是交易员们押注美联 储将在12月进行"鹰式降息"。所谓"鹰式降息"，即在降息的同时，美联储主席鲍威尔会发出谨慎信号， 强调未来政策的不确定性，以降低市场对进一步宽松的期待。 美联储内部意见分歧加剧 自鲍威尔担任美联储主 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the decision to lower interest rates and the potential for further cuts in December [1][2] - Nearly all participants agreed that ending the balance sheet reduction plan on December 1 is appropriate, but there were differing opinions on the October rate cut, indicating a split within the Fed [2][3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 83% at the end of October to around 30%, reflecting the uncertainty in the Fed's future monetary policy direction [3][4] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims and continuing claims both higher than previous values, which may support the Fed's decision to maintain a loose monetary policy [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding inflation targets is a significant factor that could constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates further, especially if inflation rises unexpectedly [4][6] - The political pressure from President Trump on the Fed could influence future rate cut expectations, as his control over Fed appointments may increase significantly next year [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding the decision to lower interest rates and the potential for further cuts in December, leading to increased uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in October, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.0%, marking the second consecutive rate cut of the year [1] - There is a notable split among Federal Reserve members regarding the appropriateness of the October rate cut, with some members expressing support for maintaining rates unchanged [2] - The outlook for a potential December rate cut is uncertain, with some members suggesting it may be suitable if economic conditions align with expectations, while others caution against further cuts due to inflation risks [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market is expected to soften gradually, with recent data indicating a relatively weak job market, which may support the Fed's continued accommodative stance [4] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 232,000, and continuing claims at 1.957 million, both higher than previous values, indicating labor market challenges [4] - The uncertainty surrounding key economic data, particularly employment and inflation figures, may lead the Fed to adopt a cautious approach in its December meeting [4][6] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy approach is characterized as "risk management-style easing," reflecting the Fed's cautious stance amid internal disagreements on the pace of rate cuts [3][6] - The Fed's future policy path may enter a new phase, marked by a clear accommodative stance but with variable timing based on economic data performance [3] - The potential for inflation to exceed expectations poses a significant constraint on the Fed's ability to lower rates further, especially in light of the recent tariff policies [4][6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, trading around $4013 after a significant drop on November 17, where it fell nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce, closing at approximately $4045 [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, leading to a strong rebound in the US dollar index, which rose by 0.25% to 99.54. This makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, contributing to a decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 3.606%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 1.7 basis points to 4.131%, resulting in a flattening of the yield curve to 52.3 basis points. Despite this appearing favorable for gold, concerns over AI financing risks are causing funds to flow back into US Treasuries rather than gold, diluting gold's "safe-haven premium" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have plummeted from over 60% to below 40% within a week, with current probabilities at 41% according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - The upcoming release of delayed economic data, particularly the September non-farm payrolls on Thursday, is a focal point for the market, with expectations that it may not be as weak as anticipated, potentially giving the Fed more reason to hold off on rate cuts [3][4] Geopolitical Situation - Israeli far-right political figures are calling for actions against Palestinian leadership if the UN recognizes Palestine as a state, which could escalate tensions in the region [4] - The overall sentiment regarding the Fed's rate cut expectations is negatively impacting short-term gold prices, with traders closely monitoring the upcoming US non-farm payroll data and Fed meeting minutes [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices have recorded a bearish closing, hitting a new weekly low, with a potential further decline if the price breaks below the key support level of $4030, possibly challenging the previous low around $3886 [7] - Short-term trends show a rapid decline from a high of $4245, with multiple attempts to stabilize around $4100 failing, leading to further downward movement below the critical support level of $4030 [7]