昨晚全球市场遭遇 "黑色星期五"，特朗普加征100%关税引发连锁崩盘，但与4月相比，此次对抗级别、市场位置、博弈心态均发生本质变 化。 本文通过5种情景推演后续走向，锁定APEC会晤、稀土管制执行等4个关键观察节点，拆解 市场 短中长期市场机会，期待能帮大家在市场动 荡调整中把握 " 攻守易势 "的再次上车布局机会。 01 全球资产遭遇 "黑色星期五" 当地时间 10月10日，特朗普在社交媒体宣布，自11月1日起对所有华进口商品加征100%附加关税，同时实施关键软件全面出口管制，直接导 火索是中国前一日发布的稀土全产业链出口管制公告。 消息瞬间引发全球市场恐慌： S&P500指数当日跌幅达3.5%，6小时内蒸发2.5万亿美元市值；加密货币行业24小时爆仓规模超191亿美元， 162万人爆仓，两项数据均创下该领域合约交易10年历史之最。 值得关注的是，市场恐慌程度远低于 4月 关税 战：4月VIX恐慌指数一度飙升至60，此次仅升至22；A50指数跌幅也不足4月7日的六成。这 一差异背后，是投资者对两国博弈逻辑的认知已发生根本转变。 02 半年博弈： 从科技到资源 对抗升级 从 4月首轮关税战到10月关税升级，半 ...

"有错误不可怕，没有人不犯错，真正可怕的是不知错、不认错、不改错。"马云说道。其实，越成功的 人或企业，越难做到公开承认错误，毕竟心理包袱太重了，而蔡崇信治下的阿里能放下面子，做到坦然 面对问题实属不易。 当然，承认错误只是企业变好的第一步，如何改正错误，重新回到健康成长的轨道，非常考验企业管理 者的商业智慧。而蔡崇信在这方面的表现，同样获得马云的高度肯定。 马云表示，过去一年，蔡崇信和吴泳铭（阿里CEO）用令人钦佩的勇气和智慧，带领阿里进行了一系列 着眼于未来的变革。这一年最核心的变化，不是去追赶KPI，而是认清自己，重回客户价值轨道。 2023年9月10日，以蔡崇信和吴泳铭为核心的新任管理层正式上任，旋即重新梳理公司战略优先级，以 电商（国内+国际）和云为核心业务。对于确定性的战略级业务，阿里旗帜鲜明地坚定投入。对于核心 业务，阿里聚焦聚焦再聚焦。 作者：龚进辉 最近，阿里董事会主席蔡崇信在All-in访谈中谈及马云的领导力，直言非常出色。"他曾在大学任教，而 教师是天生的领导者，因为他们善于沟通，懂得识别人才，并且足够谦逊。" 由此可见，蔡崇信对马云评价极高，尽管他已经退休多年，远离业务一线，但凭借出色 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-09 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 关于降息美联储内部分歧正在加大，美政府停摆导致评估更难 观点分享： 北京时间 10 月 9 日凌晨，美联储官网发布了 9 月 16 日至 17 日的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员们大体同意，近期就业增长放缓的重要性 超过了持续高企的通胀，因此决定降息 25 个基点，这是今年的首次降息。9 月会议的投票结 果为 11 比 1，投出反对票的成员是由美国总统特朗普任命的美联储新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran），他主张降息 50 个基点。纪要显示，多数与会者强调了通胀前景上行 的风险，少数官员对降息持保留态度。部分官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支持维持利率不 变。19 位参会官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有数人预计 2025 年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。这反映出美联储内部分歧依然较大。号称"美联储 传声筒"的知名财经记者 Nick Timiraos 撰文称，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧， 一些官员认为上月无需降息，或本可支 ...

2024年以来，AI科技革命席卷全球，推动算力、高速网络通信、智能驾驶等下游领域高速发展，PCB（印制电路板）行业进入新一轮增长周期。 （原标题：专访硕成科技董事长曾庆明：深耕电子材料领域，打造百年企业） 南方财经记者 杨期鑫 庞成、视频拍摄剪辑记者 朱治宣 实习生姚文琪 吴佳钒 韶关报道 2025年A股上市企业半年报数据显示，超20家PCB相关上市企业营收增幅超20%，其中胜宏科技、生益电子等龙头企业归母净利润同比增长超 300%。 在AI浪潮的推动下，广东涌现出一批具有全球竞争力的PCB企业。其中，成立于2013年的硕成科技股份有限公司，凭借在电子材料领域的持续深 耕，成功打破该领域长期被国外企业垄断的局面，发展成为国内电子材料领域的领军企业之一。 《新粤商》：当前PCB行业发展态势如何，硕成在其中扮演什么角色？ 曾庆明：现在我们从上市公司的半年报都可以看得出来，当前PCB行业整体呈现迅猛发展态势。以上市公司披露报表为准的话，整个行业上半年 营收增长20%以上，同时利润也是增长比较多。从行业格局上看，呈现"强者愈强"的局面:头部企业规模持续扩大，而中小厂商面临更大压力。高 端产品领域——如应用于AI、算力 ...

记者丨杨期鑫 实习生钟宸 编辑丨李振 PCB（印制电路板），是现代电子产品的核心组件，PCB与芯片、面板并称电子信息产业三大 元器件，主要作用是实现电子元器件之间的相互连接，实现信号传输，因此也被称为"电子产 品之母"。 Prismark数据显示，2024年全球PCB市场产值为735.65亿美元，同比增长5.8%；而中国以 412.13亿美元的产值领跑全球，同比增速高达9.0%。 数据来源：Prismark 制图：杨期鑫 而在这场产业竞逐中，城市间的角力尤为激烈—— 作为中国PCB产业核心区域，广东PCB产 能占全国约60%，拥有超万亿市值的上市企业集群，以及深圳、惠州、东莞等城市形成的城 市集群；与此同时，中西部城市如江西信丰、安徽广德正借势产业转移东风强势崛起 。 广东P C B板块市值已超万亿 从一开始的一穷二白到如今全球最大的PCB生产国，中国PCB产业发展并非一帆风顺。 1936年，奥地利人保罗·爱斯勒（Paul Eisler）发明了世界上第一块PCB，并于50年代初开始 大规模应用。 但是由于西方的技术封锁，直到1956年，中国第一块PCB在北京一间简陋的实验室内诞生。 上世纪60—70年代，中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese capital market, highlighting the potential for a bull market while cautioning against over-optimism based on superficial indicators. It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of underlying economic conditions and the importance of transitioning to a consumption-driven economy. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market sentiment indicates a shift of funds from the real economy to the capital market, suggesting a scarcity of opportunities in the real sector [5][7][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, but the overall performance is still below expectations compared to other major economies [8][10] - The article notes that many investors are speculating on the market without substantial experience, leading to unrealistic predictions about index levels [8][18] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show a concerning trend: CPI has been in a downtrend for 67 months, PPI has contracted for 46 months, and GDP deflator has seen negative growth for 9 consecutive quarters [20][22] - The article argues that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, with no clear signs of recovery, compounded by a deteriorating demographic structure [22][24] Group 3: Investment Drivers - Two main underlying forces are identified as supporting the current market: "Era Compensation" and "Era Redemption" [26][55] - "Era Compensation" refers to the historical context of monetary expansion and asset appreciation, particularly in real estate, which has now shifted focus to the stock market as other asset classes become less attractive [33][39] - "Era Redemption" highlights the potential for technological revolutions, such as AI, to drive economic recovery and market performance, suggesting that the current bull market may be underpinned by these innovations [55][68] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Economic Structure - The article emphasizes the need for China to transition to a consumption-driven economy, as the current economic model is heavily reliant on asset construction and has led to a mismatch in consumption and production [70][72] - The decline in consumer spending is attributed to a prepayment of future consumption through real estate investments, leading to a current lack of purchasing power [72][74] - The demographic shift, with a declining labor force and increasing elderly population, poses significant challenges to sustaining economic growth and consumer spending [76][78] Group 5: Debt and Financial Stability - The rising debt levels among households, with a debt-to-income ratio exceeding 142%, raise concerns about financial stability and the potential for forced poverty if economic conditions do not improve [84][86] - The article warns that if consumer spending does not recover, it could lead to a broader economic crisis, as the current asset-heavy economic structure becomes unsustainable [86][91]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent trading activities of well-known private equity fund managers, particularly Feng Liu and Ge Weidong, amid the release of semi-annual reports from listed companies [1][2] - Feng Liu's Gao Yi Lin Shan 1 Hao Yuan Wang Fund has increased its holdings in Longbai Group for two consecutive quarters, holding 88 million shares by the end of Q2, with a market value exceeding 1.4 billion yuan [3][4] - Ge Weidong has maintained his positions in Yiyuan Communication and Zhenlei Technology, with the latter's stock price increasing over 100% this year [1][10] Group 2 - Longbai Group reported a revenue of 13.33 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 3.34%, and a net profit of 1.385 billion yuan, down 19.53% [4][5] - Yiyuan Communication achieved a revenue of approximately 11.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.98%, and a net profit of about 471 million yuan, up 125.03% [12] - Zhenlei Technology reported a revenue of 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.64%, and a net profit of 62.32 million yuan, up 1006.99% [12][13] Group 3 - The article suggests that with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the visible effects of China's economic transformation, structural market trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue [1][15] - Key sectors for investment focus include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][15] - Private equity firms are showing strong interest in growth sectors while also being cautious about valuation safety, indicating a strategic approach to investment during the earnings disclosure period [16]

Group 1: Market Trends and Drivers - Recent global market risk appetite has significantly improved, with many developed and emerging market indices reaching new highs, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks entering a bull market atmosphere[2] - The decline of the US dollar index by 10% this year has notably boosted non-US stock markets[2] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased, alleviating valuation pressure on global assets[2] - Global central banks have accelerated monetary supply growth, with 76 rate cuts this year compared to only 19 rate hikes, particularly benefiting non-US markets[2] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The "Buffett Indicator" (total market capitalization/GDP) for US stocks has reached a historical high of 2.1, approximately 2.9 standard deviations above the long-term average, indicating potential overvaluation[3] - The capital expenditure growth rate for tech giants is projected at 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth and potential valuation corrections[3] - The current valuation levels of major markets show that US, Indian, Vietnamese, and German stocks are at absolute highs, while risk premiums for Indian, US, and Vietnamese stocks are relatively low[4] Group 3: Market Sensitivities and Risks - The high non-fundamental premium in markets like A-shares and German stocks suggests increased sensitivity to potential reversals in dollar liquidity or changes in capital flows[4] - If the Federal Reserve's policies or cross-border capital flows change, markets with high non-fundamental premiums may be more vulnerable to corrections[4] - The report highlights the potential for a "shrinking circle" effect in global markets if risk appetite declines, particularly affecting markets with high non-fundamental premiums[4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that incremental capital is accelerating into the market, suggesting that the current market trend may continue, with A-shares showing greater elasticity compared to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A-shares are expected to regain superiority over Hong Kong stocks if domestic individual investors accelerate their market entry and pressures on core industries such as the new energy chain and real estate chain ease [1] - Positive changes in the funding landscape for A-shares have been observed, with attractive market returns, improved chip structure, and a positive cycle of profit-making effects and capital inflows [1] - The restructuring of external monetary order and a weak dollar trend may lead to renewed interest in RMB assets, driving incremental capital into the market [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have distinct sector advantages, providing complementary investment value. In terms of profit structure, the midstream manufacturing sector in A-shares has a higher profit share compared to Hong Kong [1] - The A-share market features hard technology, new energy, and midstream manufacturing as its characteristic industries, while the Hong Kong market is home to many scarce internet leaders and emerging consumer enterprises [1] Group 3: Hard Technology vs. Soft Innovation - A-shares have shown strong competitiveness in hard technology sectors like semiconductors and electronics, benefiting from high industry prosperity and policy support, contributing approximately 3.5% to overall profits [2] - The soft innovation sector in Hong Kong, particularly in the internet space, has gained prominence due to the AI technology revolution, contributing 13.5% to the market's profits [2] Group 4: Consumer Trends - The A-share market's broad consumption sector, including food and beverage, has maintained stable profit contributions, with the liquor industry contributing around 2.5% to overall profits over the past five years [3] - In contrast, the Hong Kong market has seen a shift towards new consumption models, with new retail channels and entertainment sectors performing well, leading to over 200% cumulative profit growth in the new consumption index over the past three years [3] Group 5: New Energy Sector - The A-share market's new energy sector, particularly in upstream resource manufacturing, has seen improved global competitiveness, with the electric equipment and new energy sector contributing around 5% to A-share profits [4] - The Hong Kong market's new energy sector is primarily focused on downstream electric vehicle manufacturers, which have shown strong performance despite being in a transitional phase [5] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has a more complete industry chain, contributing about 3% to overall profits, while the Hong Kong market focuses on innovative drug development, with profit contributions increasing from 0.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2024 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in the second half of the year, outperforming the Hong Kong stock market, driven by positive changes in market liquidity and supportive policies [2][3]. A-share and Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - A-share indices have reached nearly four-year highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3700 mark and daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The A-share market has seen year-to-date gains of 10% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 16% for the total A-share index, while the Hong Kong market has recorded increases of 5.0% and 4.2% for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, respectively [2]. - The improvement in A-shares is attributed to a better capital structure and increased market participation, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing profitability [2][3]. Sector Analysis - A-shares have a higher proportion of profits from the midstream manufacturing sector (12.3%) compared to Hong Kong (5.8%), while both markets show similar contributions from consumer sectors [3]. - The financial sector dominates both markets, with over 25% in A-shares and 30% in Hong Kong, while A-shares have significant contributions from consumer, technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [3]. Hard Technology vs. Soft Innovation - A-shares excel in hard technology sectors like semiconductors and electronics, benefiting from high industry demand and policy support, contributing approximately 3.5% to overall profits [4]. - Hong Kong's soft innovation sector, particularly in internet companies, has gained traction due to the AI technology revolution, contributing 13.5% to profits [4]. Consumer Trends - A-shares focus on traditional consumer sectors like food and beverage, with stable profit contributions, while Hong Kong has seen a rise in new consumption models, particularly in dining and retail [5]. - The A-share liquor industry has consistently contributed around 2.5% to overall profits, while new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have experienced over 200% profit growth in the past three years [5]. New Energy Sector - A-shares are strong in the upstream new energy sector, particularly in battery and photovoltaic equipment, although profitability has faced challenges due to supply-demand imbalances [6]. - Hong Kong's new energy sector is primarily focused on downstream electric vehicle manufacturers, which have shown resilience and growth potential [6]. Pharmaceutical Sector Comparison - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has a more complete industry chain, contributing 3% to overall profits, while Hong Kong focuses on innovative drug development, with profits increasing from 0.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2024 [7]. Future Market Outlook - The influx of new capital into the A-share market is expected to continue, with A-shares likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks if domestic investors increase their participation and core industry pressures ease [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, particularly in light of supportive policies [15].