对话产业链大佬 - 从 PCB 压合设备环节看行业景气度持续 性 20250917 摘要 公司 2024 年总销售额约为 14-15 亿人民币，其中国内市场销售额约为 4 亿人民币，国外市场约为 1 亿欧元，产品毛利率通常在 40%以上，盈 利能力较强。 2025 年 1-8 月，公司国内订单金额已超过 5 亿元人民币，显著高于 2024 年全年水平，表明市场需求强劲增长，AI 算力需求带动 PCB 扩产 是主要驱动力。 公司 PCB 压合设备在大陆市场占有率超过 80%，处于市场领导地位， 主要竞争对手包括日本的 JSW 和北川，以及德国的一家公司，竞争格局 相对集中。 目前公司产能无法完全满足订单需求，订单已排至 2026 年 6 月，预计 2025 年年产能可达 300 台，产能扩张受限于关键元器件供应，特别是 液压系统中的阀座等非标件。 PCB 压合设备价格范围大致在 100 万到 200 万人民币之间，价格受设 备加工尺寸、开口数、温度和压力控制等参数影响，高端 HDI 产线对设 备的平行度、压力和温度控制精度提出了更高要求。 Q&A 能否简单介绍一下贵公司的基本情况及主营业务？ 我们公司主要从事压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage market has entered a new upward cycle driven by supply-side reductions and increased demand, with major manufacturers like SanDisk and Micron raising prices across various products [1][6]. Price Increases in Storage Products - Major storage manufacturers have announced price hikes, with SanDisk implementing a comprehensive price increase across all channels and consumer products effective immediately for new orders [3][4]. - As of September 15, the average spot price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 has risen to $5.33, a significant increase of over 260% from the average price of $1.47 in the first quarter [4]. - The average spot price for MLC 32Gb 4GBx8 has reached $3.54 as of September 1, reflecting a cumulative increase of 54.29% since the beginning of the year [5]. Factors Driving Price Increases - The current price surge in storage products is primarily influenced by supply-side structural adjustments and a surge in demand. Major manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have announced production cuts, accelerating the market's destocking process [7]. - There is a shift in production capacity from traditional DRAM to higher-margin products like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to tighter supply of older DRAM products like DDR4 [7]. - Demand is robust due to the explosion of AI applications, large-scale data center construction, and a recovery in the consumer electronics market. Omdia projects a 17% growth in the global DRAM market size by Q2 2025, driven by the rise of generative AI [7]. Performance of Storage Concept Stocks - Among the 40 A-share stocks involved in the storage industry chain, the average increase since September has been 5.36%, with notable performers like Shannon Semiconductor and Xiechuang Data seeing increases of 79.16% and 38.59%, respectively [9]. - Seventeen concept stocks reported year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of the year, with Shanghai Xinyang, Lanke Technology, and Haoshanghao showing significant increases of 126.31%, 95.41%, and 71.05% respectively [9]. Foreign Investment Interest - Storage concept stocks have attracted significant attention from foreign institutions, with 16 stocks undergoing research by foreign entities this year. Notably, Lanke Technology received inquiries from 184 foreign institutions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The storage market is experiencing a significant price increase driven by supply-side reductions and a surge in demand, marking the beginning of a new upward cycle in the industry [1][3]. Price Increases in Storage Products - Major storage manufacturers, including SanDisk, have announced price hikes across all channels and consumer products, effective immediately for new orders [2]. - As of September 15, the average spot price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 has risen to $5.33, a more than 260% increase from the first quarter average of $1.47 [2]. - The average spot price for MLC 32Gb 4GBx8 has reached $3.54 as of September 1, reflecting a cumulative increase of 54.29% since the beginning of the year [2]. Factors Driving Price Increases - The current price surge is attributed to structural adjustments on the supply side and a new wave of demand growth, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix implementing production cuts [3]. - Traditional DRAM production capacity is being shifted towards higher-margin products like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), tightening the supply of older DRAM products like DDR4 [3]. - Demand is being fueled by the explosion of AI applications, large-scale data center construction, and a recovery in the consumer electronics market, with Omdia projecting a 17% growth in the global DRAM market size by Q2 2025 [3]. Performance of Storage-Related Stocks - Among the 40 A-share companies involved in the storage industry, 17 reported year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year, with an overall average increase of 5.36% in stock prices since September [4]. - Notable performers include Shannon Chip Creation, Xiechuang Data, and Demingli, with cumulative stock price increases of 79.16%, 38.59%, and 25.01%, respectively [4]. - Shanghai Xinyang reported a net profit of 133 million yuan in the first half of the year, highlighting its role in the production of key materials for storage chip manufacturing [4]. Foreign Investment Interest - Storage concept stocks have attracted significant attention from foreign institutions, with 16 stocks being investigated by foreign entities this year [5]. - Companies like Lianqi Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Baiwei Storage have been the most frequently researched, with 184, 52, and 28 foreign institution inquiries, respectively [5]. Technological Leadership - Lianqi Technology is actively involved in the development of JEDEC product standards in the memory interconnect field and is recognized as the only Chinese company among the three memory interface chip suppliers [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid development of domestic DRAM manufacturers due to its product performance and local service advantages [6].

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 | 最新收盘价（元） | 52.30 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.42 | / 0.89 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）74 | / 46 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 61.62 / 23.37 | | 资产负债率(%) | 22.2% | | 市盈率 | 75.80 | | 第一大股东 | 国家集成电路产业投资 | | | 基金股份有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 个股表现 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 -6% 10% 26% 42% 58% 74% 90% 106% 122% 138% 德邦科技 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 德邦科技(688035) 集成电路封装材料高增 l 事件 公司发布 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impressive performance of the two leading companies in the optical module industry, Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, in the first half of 2025, with net profits of 3.995 billion and 3.942 billion yuan respectively, showcasing significant growth rates of 69.4% and 355.68% [1][3]. Financial Performance - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved a revenue of 14.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.95%, with a net profit of 3.995 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 69.4% [3][4]. - Xinyi Sheng reported a revenue of 10.437 billion yuan, which is 4.352 billion yuan less than Zhongji Xuchuang, but with a remarkable year-on-year growth rate of 282.64%, and a net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, only 0.53 billion yuan lower than Zhongji Xuchuang, with a growth rate of 355.68% [3][5]. Growth Drivers - Zhongji Xuchuang's growth is attributed to a stable increase in volume and price, with a focus on high-end products, particularly the 800G and 400G optical modules [4][10]. - Xinyi Sheng's rapid growth is driven by an increase in the proportion of high-speed optical modules, improved internal cost control, and aggressive market expansion [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Zhongji Xuchuang's overall gross margin was 39.33%, with the optical module business gross margin around 40%, showing significant improvement compared to the previous year [7]. - Xinyi Sheng's point-to-point optical module gross margin was 47.48%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Cash Flow and Expense Management - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a net operating cash flow of 3.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.45%, primarily due to increased customer payments [9]. - Xinyi Sheng's net operating cash flow improved significantly to 0.953 billion yuan, a 427.67% increase year-on-year, reflecting enhanced cash flow management under high growth [9]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The optical module industry is experiencing a shift towards the widespread adoption of 800G modules and the transition of 1.6T modules from testing to mass production, with CPO technology entering a critical development phase [2][10]. - Both companies are benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power, particularly in the data center market, which is outpacing traditional telecom markets [10][11]. International Expansion - Zhongji Xuchuang's overseas sales accounted for 86.34% of total revenue, with significant investments in AI infrastructure from key overseas clients [12]. - Xinyi Sheng's overseas sales represented 94.4% of total revenue, with ongoing expansion of production capacity in Thailand [13].

Market Overview - On August 25, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.00% [1] - The total market turnover reached 31,411 billion RMB, showing a significant increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector led the gains with an increase of 4.85%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 4.63%, and real estate at 3.32%. No sector reported a decline [5] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.14%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.94% [4] Key Indices Performance - The STAR 20 Index increased by 3.20% year-to-date, showing a total increase of 30.21% [2] - The ChiNext 50 Index rose by 3.16% with a year-to-date increase of 31.03% [2] - The overall performance of major indices includes the CSI 500 Index up by 1.89% year-to-date, and the CSI 1000 Index up by 1.56% [2] Investment Insights - The copper price is expected to rise due to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the upcoming demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" season [5] - The domestic computing power chain is gaining traction due to policy support and market demand, with significant investments planned for the "East Data West Computing" project [7] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a boost in domestic production capabilities, driven by advancements in AI data center networks and increased demand for storage solutions [7] ETF and Fund Performance - The largest chemical ETF saw an increase of 1.80%, with its latest price at 0.68 RMB and a scale surpassing 90 billion RMB [8] - The telecommunications ETF is highlighted as a key product in the sector, reflecting the growing interest in digital economy infrastructure [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented allocation challenges faced by global investors due to high interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in stock market valuations and an inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries, while gold prices reach historical highs driven by safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - The stock market exhibits significant structural differentiation, with the technology sector remaining resilient due to AI computing demand, as evidenced by an 18.7% year-to-date increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, while traditional consumer sectors are pressured by declining household savings rates [1] - Active management funds have achieved an average excess return of 4.2 percentage points, underscoring the value of professional investment in a differentiated market [1] - Smart investment advisory systems utilizing machine learning algorithms have identified multiple small and mid-cap stocks with potential for excess returns [1] Group 3 - The fixed income market is undergoing a reconfiguration of pricing mechanisms, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuating around 4.5% and credit spreads widening by 37 basis points compared to historical averages [2] - Institutional investors are employing duration strategies and credit downgrades to capture alpha returns, with investment-grade corporate bonds beginning to show allocation value [2] - The green bond market has surpassed $2.3 trillion in size, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 19%, providing new options for ESG investors [2] Group 4 - Gold's monetary attributes are revitalized in the digital currency era, with geopolitical risks and central bank purchases pushing gold prices above $2,500 per ounce [4] - The trading volume of digital gold certificates has increased by 240% year-on-year, merging physical gold with blockchain technology, enhancing liquidity to stock-levels with an average daily trading volume of $4.7 billion [4] - A dynamic balance of risk and return is necessary for cross-asset allocation, with the optimal current portfolio ratio being 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold, where gold's volatility contribution has decreased to 14% and its correlation coefficient with stocks has improved to 0.38 [4] - The application of smart rebalancing algorithms has effectively controlled the annualized portfolio volatility within 9.2% [4] Group 5 - The capital market is in a continuous evolution of efficiency versus risk, as evidenced by a record net outflow of 8.3 billion yuan from northbound funds under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, while gold ETFs have seen 21 consecutive weeks of net subscriptions [4] - Data indicates that a three-year systematic investment strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.7%, significantly outperforming single-asset allocation strategies [4]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market continued to strengthen on August 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points, reaching its highest level since August 20, 2015 [1] - Chip stocks led the market rally, with the Tianhong Chip ETF (159310) rising by 7.74% and trading volume exceeding 16 million yuan [1] - Key component stocks such as Haiguang Information and Shengmei Shanghai hit the daily limit, while Cambrian-U rose over 14% [1] Group 2: Chip ETF Insights - As of August 21, the Tianhong Chip ETF (159310) had a latest circulating scale of 1.003 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] - The Tianhong Chip ETF tracks the CSI Chip Industry Index, with top holdings including SMIC, Northern Huachuang, and Haiguang Information, where Cambrian's estimated weight reached 12.26% [1] - The ETF also includes off-market linked funds [1] Group 3: AI Chip Market Growth - The AI chip market is rapidly expanding due to increasing demand for large model training, autonomous driving, and edge AI applications [2] - Deloitte's report estimates the global chip market to reach $576 billion in 2024, with AI chip sales accounting for 11%, exceeding $57 billion [2] - By 2025, the new generation of AI chips is expected to surpass $150 billion, and by 2027, the global AI chip market could grow to $400 billion, with conservative estimates reaching $110 billion [2] Group 4: Domestic AI Chip Development - Zhongyuan Securities predicts that by the first half of 2025, technological innovation will drive the rise of domestic large models and widespread AI applications [3] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its recovery, with increased demand for autonomous and controllable solutions [3] - High-end AI chip localization is deemed essential, with companies like Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Huawei leading the charge, while other domestic AI chip manufacturers are also accelerating their market penetration [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global semiconductor cycle is experiencing an upward resonance, with numerous opportunities emerging in the technology sector. The semiconductor industry is in the early to mid-stages of a "growth acceleration period," driven primarily by AI demand, particularly for high-end chips like GPUs and HBM [1] - The current semiconductor cycle is characterized by structural prosperity in core segments such as GPU, HBM, and advanced packaging, driven by AI computing power demand, which is more incremental compared to the previous cycle that was mainly driven by consumer electronics [1] - The semiconductor sector typically exhibits a dual drive of "profit and valuation" during cyclical fluctuations, with market turning points often leading fundamental changes. The trend indicates that after Nvidia's leadership, the semiconductor cycle is expected to rise [1] Group 2 - The Chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Index (990001), which selects listed companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the semiconductor industry [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor cycle is entering an upward phase, transitioning from "expectation repair" to "prosperity verification" [1] - The semiconductor index experienced over-adjustment due to profit and tariff disturbances in the first half of the year, but is now recovering with mid-year performance [1] - The current demand for high-end chips like GPU and HBM is being driven by AI computing needs, leading to structural prosperity in core segments of the industry [1] Group 2 - The global semiconductor industry is in the early to mid-stages of a "growth acceleration period," with steady progress in technological self-sufficiency [1] - The electronic industry is becoming one of the main lines driven by dual forces in the context of "global technology collaboration" [1] - The Chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Index (990001), which selects high-tech and high-growth potential companies across the semiconductor industry chain [1]