2026年港股和A股的布局策略怎么走？摩根大通，作为全球顶尖的投行，刚刚发布了最新的中国资产展望报告，发出了挺明确的信号：经济增长可能会慢一 些，但风险还是在可控范围内。沪深300指数将迎来第四波反弹潮，还有四个具有巨大潜力的主题值得重点留意。今天就带大家详细解析这份重量级的研 报，确保大家能理解明年的投资机遇在哪里！ 摩根大通判断，2026年中国经济将呈现"增长放缓但下行风险可控"的态势。这个"可控"并非空口白话，核心支撑来自三个关键维度： 政策支持的力度一直在加码，从之前稳定经济和股市的一连串措施来看，政策手段储备挺有底气，给市场搭了道稳妥的防护网。 新兴的生产力投入带来了明显推动，比如高端制造业和科技创新这些行业不断加码，正逐渐塑造出新的经济增长点。 这种反内卷的趋势下，出现了反弹式的增长，行业间的竞争格局也在重新调整，未来或许能挖掘出新的盈利空间。 经济基本面已有触底反弹的趋势，而摩根大通的中国宏观景气度指标（QMI）也成为一个关键的参考依据。这个指标被认为是"海外角度观察中国市场的晴 雨表"，涵盖了港股、中概股以及A股的核心企业。从数据上看，蓝色的QMI指数和黑色的MSCI中国指数的涨跌变化非常一致 ...

Core Insights - The marketing industry is at a crossroads in 2026, facing the dual challenges of AI-driven content generation and the need for genuine human connection [1][3][4] Group 1: AI and Content Generation - The rise of AI-generated content has led to a saturation of low-quality information online, with over half of written content being AI-generated [3][4] - Marketing strategies are shifting from traditional methods to AI-driven approaches, compressing the consumer journey into a direct dialogue leading to action [10][12][14] - Brands must balance AI efficiency with a deep understanding of human emotions to create meaningful connections [9][19] Group 2: Brand Dynamics and Market Changes - International brands are retreating from the Chinese market, leading to a rise in local brands that are now becoming global leaders [15][17] - The consumer landscape is evolving into a K-shaped structure, where brands must either offer extreme value or emotional resonance to survive [18] - The advertising industry is consolidating, with major players merging to reduce costs and enhance efficiency in response to internal and external pressures [19][20][21] Group 3: Content Consumption Trends - There is a resurgence in demand for long-form content as audiences seek depth and meaningful narratives, contrasting with the short attention spans fostered by social media [22][23] - The role of founders in brand marketing is becoming more complex, as their personal actions can significantly impact brand perception [25][28] Group 4: Advertising and Consumer Engagement - The shift towards influencer marketing is evident, with a significant portion of advertising budgets now directed towards social media and KOLs [31] - Brands are reevaluating their reliance on traffic-driven models, recognizing the need to build lasting brand equity and consumer trust [33][36]

行业研究丨深度报告丨零售业 [Table_Title] 细分需求企稳，甄选供给优化 ——商贸零售行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为，内需有望逐步企稳，出口需求仍存在较多结构性看点。在此背景下，我们着重供给 逻辑、甄选供给端格局优化的子行业。出口方向，需求端看好一带一路的相对景气和北美结构 性需求，供给侧看好合规性提升过程中龙头出口企业的优势增强机遇；美容护理板块，看好高 端和极致性价比两个价格带进入门槛较高、格局相对稳定的细分方向；实体零售板块，龙头企 业门店供给调整相对彻底，伴随供应链改革逐步展开，有望迎来盈利优化；黄金珠宝板块，持 续看好具备强饰品化能力的珠宝品牌，在当前阶段更加迎合消费者需求的增长机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 罗祎 秦意昂 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 张彦淳 曾维朵 SAC：S0490525080008 请阅读最后评级说明和 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a K-shaped consumption trend, emphasizing the importance of high-end and cost-effective products in the beauty sector. Online sales in the beauty industry for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 217.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [2][27] - The retail and trendy toy sectors are expected to see a recovery in high-end department store traffic due to the K-shaped consumption trend and the upcoming consumption peak season [3] - The tourism sector is focusing on Hainan's duty-free and tourism company mergers and acquisitions, with domestic travel increasing by 18.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][42] - The gold and jewelry sector is showing resilience in consumer demand despite tax policy changes, with major brands maintaining strong sales growth [6][49] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a divide, with growth potential in specific segments, particularly for leading brands like Yum China and Xiaocaiyuan [6][51] Summary by Sections Trendy Toys - Online sales in the trendy toy sector for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 664.43 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 65% [4][13] Beauty - Online sales in the beauty sector for the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately 217.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [2][27] Duty-Free and Tourism - The new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan is expected to stimulate consumer spending, with a significant increase in shopping amounts and visitor numbers [34][39] - Domestic travel numbers reached 4.998 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [42] Gold and Jewelry - Following the new tax policy, the price of gold jewelry has increased, but consumer demand remains strong, with major brands reporting significant sales growth [6][49] Restaurant - The restaurant sector is seeing a split, with growth in specific segments. Yum China's same-store sales improved by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and Xiaocaiyuan is expanding rapidly [6][51][62]

Investment Rating - The report suggests prioritizing investments in foreign trade, followed by domestic demand, with a focus on the export manufacturing sector for clearer performance recovery by 2026 [38]. Core Insights - In September 2025, US apparel and accessories retail sales grew by 6.7% year-on-year, although the inventory-sales ratio declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [38]. - The current overseas K-shaped consumption trend shows strong performance in both high-end and mass value-for-money segments [38]. - Key targets for investment include Huali Industrial Group, Stella International Holdings, Shenzhou International, and Best Pacific International, with specific focus areas in home textiles, affordable luxury, and low valuation high dividend companies [38]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In October 2025, China's apparel retail sales increased by 6.8%, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 12.6% [16]. - The cumulative textile and apparel exports from January to October 2025 amounted to approximately $243.94 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.79% [18]. Market Performance - The A-share textile and apparel sector rose by 2.75% in the last week, outperforming the broader market [6]. - The current PE valuation for the textile and apparel sector stands at 20.65 times, below the historical average of 24.70 times [10]. Key Announcements and News - Huitai Textile reported a 6.7% decline in revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to tariff disruptions and low capacity utilization [33]. - Kappa's parent company reported a 49% increase in profit for the first half of the fiscal year, indicating strong brand and operational performance [34].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "K-shaped consumption" among young consumers reflects a trend where they are frugal in everyday spending while willing to splurge on items that provide emotional value, such as the popular "milk skin candied hawthorn" priced at 98 to 198 yuan per stick [3][4]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers exhibit a dual approach to spending: they seek cost-effective alternatives and promotions for basic needs, yet are willing to pay a premium for experiences that resonate with their identity and social status [3][4]. - The demand for "milk skin candied hawthorn" has surged, with a monthly order increase of 109% on platforms like Meituan, indicating a responsive market to consumer preferences [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rapid popularity of certain products can lead to market chaos, such as supply shortages and inflated prices, where products costing only a few tens of yuan are sold for nearly 100 yuan [4]. - The government is encouraged to play a role in establishing regulations, stabilizing expectations, and promoting industry upgrades rather than merely imposing bans or subsidies [4]. Group 3: Industry Recommendations - Standards for products like "milk skin candied hawthorn" need to be established, including clear labeling of sugar content, calories, and ingredient sources to inform consumers [4]. - Support for the supply chain is essential to prevent bottlenecks in raw material availability, with local governments urged to facilitate the establishment of standardized production facilities [4]. - Innovation should be encouraged to move beyond superficial changes, promoting the development of new forms and flavors of products to ensure their longevity in the market [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of "K-shaped consumption" is not a fleeting trend but a new market reality, where young consumers are discerning about brand premiums and willing to pay for experiences they value [4][5]. - The future success of products like "milk skin candied hawthorn" will depend on the collaborative efforts of the market, government, and consumers to maintain a healthy and vibrant industry [5][6].

Group 1 - HSBC predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 7500 points by December 2024, driven by a surge in AI investments, indicating a potential for double-digit growth in U.S. stocks for another year [1] - The report emphasizes that AI capital expenditure will continue to dominate through 2026, reflecting a strong bullish sentiment despite concerns about a potential bubble [1][2] - The forecast suggests that the current AI investment wave will persist, encouraging investors to broaden their AI trading strategies [1] Group 2 - Analysts note that while the AI investment boom is expected to support the economy, consumer behavior is becoming increasingly unstable due to persistent inflation and a fluctuating labor market [2] - HSBC anticipates a "dual-speed economy" in 2026, where high-income consumers will spend more confidently, while low-income consumers will cut back on spending [2] - The report highlights a trend of high-end product focus among major travel and hospitality companies, contrasting with retail executives reporting pressure from consumers seeking discounts [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank sets a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, reflecting strong excitement around AI investments [3] - The report indicates that the market will expand beyond a few dominant companies, with expectations for broader participation from downstream players in the AI ecosystem [3] - The ongoing AI arms race is expected to drive the expansion of AI trading from large-scale providers to adopters and enablers of AI technology [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that 2025 is a pivotal year, marking a shift in global financial flows and market dynamics, with new coordinates emerging in investment strategies [3] - There is a notable increase in demand for gold, with prices rising by 43% from early 2025 to September, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards alternative assets [6][15] - The article highlights a significant trend of capital moving away from the US dollar, with various global markets experiencing substantial gains, such as the German stock market rising by 28% and the Italian market by 40% [6][7] Group 2 - The concept of "island chain configuration" is introduced, suggesting that global financial flows are becoming decentralized, with investors seeking alternatives to the US dollar [14][15] - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a political risk filter in asset evaluation [15][22] - The narrative-driven nature of capital markets is highlighted, where market movements are increasingly influenced by stories and perceptions rather than just fundamentals [18][20] Group 3 - The article notes a significant transformation in China's pharmaceutical industry, with a record-breaking $60.5 billion deal for licensing a Chinese cancer drug, showcasing China's growing innovation capabilities [32] - It points out that China's share of global innovative drug approvals has increased significantly, indicating a shift in the global pharmaceutical landscape [32][33] - The article discusses the emergence of "DeepSeek moments" in various industries, where previously underestimated sectors suddenly gain prominence and reshape market expectations [33][35] Group 4 - The article illustrates the evolution of China's manufacturing capabilities through the lens of container contents over the years, showing a shift from low-value goods to high-tech products [40][41] - It emphasizes the importance of precision manufacturing in maintaining competitive advantages in global supply chains, with companies like Luxshare Precision exemplifying this trend [46][58] - The article discusses the necessity for Chinese companies to transition from merely exporting products to establishing production capabilities abroad, thereby enhancing their global positioning [71][75]

Core Insights - The recent nostalgia wave in the consumer market highlights the enduring appeal of classic brands, as evidenced by the success of established names like Kang Shifu, which has maintained its relevance over 33 years through consistent quality and innovation [2][3][15] - In a competitive landscape characterized by rapid brand turnover, consumers are increasingly gravitating towards trusted, long-standing brands that embody stability and reliability [2][4] Product Innovation - Kang Shifu has launched several new products to cater to evolving consumer tastes, including the "Fresh Q Noodles" and regional flavor offerings, demonstrating a commitment to quality and innovation [4][6][9] - The introduction of the "Specially Fresh Instant Noodles," recognized for its unique cooking method, aims to redefine consumer expectations of instant noodles [8][12] - The "He Mian" product line offers a premium dining experience at an affordable price, addressing the demand for quality meals in a fast-paced lifestyle [10][11] Market Positioning - Kang Shifu's strategy includes targeting various consumer segments, from the Z generation seeking emotional value to older consumers prioritizing affordability, showcasing its adaptability in a K-shaped consumption era [4][12] - The brand's focus on high-quality ingredients and innovative packaging, such as the "premium cup" noodles, aligns with the growing consumer demand for convenience and quality [9][11] Technological Integration - The company leverages advanced food technology, including aerospace patents and freeze-drying techniques, to enhance product quality and safety, positioning itself as a leader in the instant noodle market [12][14][15] - Kang Shifu's investment in research and development, including a dedicated team of experts, underscores its commitment to continuous improvement and consumer trust [12][15] Brand Legacy - With 33 years of experience, Kang Shifu has established a strong brand identity that resonates with consumers, transforming instant noodles into a culturally significant food choice [14][15] - The brand aims to create a lasting legacy by integrating traditional culinary techniques with modern food science, ensuring its products remain relevant and cherished by consumers [14][15]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the intersection of AI and cultural renaissance in China, particularly in the context of the gaming and film industries, highlighting the potential for a shift from exclusive to inclusive cultural creation [1][5][32] Group 1: Economic and Cultural Context - China's GDP per capita is approaching $15,000, indicating a shift in consumer focus from basic needs to spiritual and social demands [5] - The emergence of new consumer brands in China reflects a changing value system, where younger generations exhibit a "K-shaped consumption" trend, prioritizing experiences over basic goods [5][7] Group 2: AI's Impact on Cultural Production - AI is seen as a revolutionary tool that can significantly enhance production efficiency in cultural industries, including gaming and film [9][10] - The potential for real-time generation of game graphics and narratives through AI could lead to the creation of entirely new digital worlds [9][10] - Companies like Nvidia are already developing technologies for real-time game graphics generation, indicating rapid advancements in this area [10] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Despite notable successes like "Black Myth: Wukong," the gaming industry in China still lacks a fertile ground for widespread cultural production, with many projects failing to gain traction [7][9] - The discussion emphasizes the need for a robust technological foundation to support a thriving cultural industry, akin to the "soil" necessary for growth [7] Group 4: Global Comparisons and Trends - Japan's animation industry is facing challenges due to a talent shortage and a slow adoption of AI technologies, contrasting with China's rapid advancements [12][16] - The cultural exchange between China and Japan is highlighted, with Chinese games increasingly penetrating the Japanese market [23][25] Group 5: Future of Cultural Creation - The concept of "Eastern-style" cultural prosperity is proposed, emphasizing collective participation and co-creation in cultural production, facilitated by AI [32][36] - The potential for AI to democratize creative processes is discussed, allowing more individuals to participate in cultural creation [31][41] - The rise of independent game developers leveraging AI tools to reduce costs and enhance creativity is noted, suggesting a shift in the industry landscape [41][46] Group 6: Societal Implications - The interaction between creators and audiences is evolving, with players now having a direct impact on game development, reflecting a broader trend of participatory culture [55][57] - The rapid iteration and feedback loops in the Chinese gaming industry are seen as a competitive advantage, enabling quicker responses to market demands [57][60]