美元指数目前在98.65阻力位下方盘整，价格受到7月末高点延伸出的"下降趋势线"压制。该指数已在 97.90附近找到支撑，且维持在50期与100期指数移动平均线(EMA)上方，这一技术形态表明短期市场呈 现"看涨动能"。 在杰克森霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔明确释放降息信号，为9月可能开启的宽松政策铺平道路，导致 美元承压下行。目前市场普遍预期美联储将在9月会议上降息25个基点，并在年底前累计降息接近50个 基点。高盛分析师指出，尽管鲍威尔此次讲话内容未明显超出市场预期，但在当前经济数据表现错综的 背景下，其表态进一步巩固了降息预期，强化了货币政策转向的共识。投资者的关注点现已转向即将发 布的PCE物价指数和8月非农就业报告，以从中获取更多政策路径的确认信号。除经济数据外，政治不 确定性也在加剧美元的压力。美国总统特朗普近期多次公开批评美联储的政策立场，甚至威胁解雇美联 储理事库克，此举再度引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。政治干扰言论叠加偏弱的基本面背景，令美元在 短期内仍面临持续的下行风险。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.32，跌幅0.08%，开盘价为98.44。美元仍未摆脱上周 五美联储主席 ...

周一（8月25日）亚洲时段，美元兑主要货币试图反弹，美元指数目前上涨0.22%，交投于97.93附近， 但仍未摆脱上周五因美联储主席鲍威尔鸽派言论所导致的疲软态势。鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔年会上明确释 放降息信号，为9月货币政策会议放宽政策敞开大门。 鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔会议中首次明确释放9月可能降息的信号，并指出就业市场风险正在上升，但同时 强调通胀仍未完全受控，未来政策仍取决于数据表现。目前市场预期9月降息25个基点的概率高达 87%，全年预计降息约48个基点。 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月降息25个基点，年底前累计降幅或接近50个基点。高盛分析师指出，鲍威 尔此番讲话虽未超预期，但在当前经济数据错综复杂的背景下，成功巩固了降息预期。投资者正密切关 注即将发布的PCE物价指数及8月非农就业报告，以寻找更多政策线索。 此外，政治层面不确定性亦加剧美元压力。美国总统特朗普近期频繁批评美联储政策立场，更威胁解雇 美联储理事库克，再度引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。这一连串言论与疲软基本面共同作用，使美元 短期内仍面临下行风险。 投资者正密切关注将于周五公布的美国PCE物价指数，预计同比上涨2.9%，数据结果可能进一步影响美 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. showed no month-on-month growth, with service prices unexpectedly declining and moderate increases in goods prices, indicating that the current "inflation pipeline" is not heating up. However, revisions to previous data and a rebound in intermediate demand goods may signal potential risks in the future [1][10]. Group 1: PPI Data Overview - The June PPI year-on-year increased by 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, marking the lowest year-on-year growth since September 2024. The previous value was revised from 2.6% to 2.7% [1]. - The core PPI year-on-year growth was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2024, also below the expected 2.7%, with the previous value revised from 3% to 3.2% [2]. Group 2: Price Movements in Goods and Services - Despite the overall zero growth in PPI, there was a moderate rebound in goods prices, with final demand goods prices rising by 0.3%, the largest increase since February [3]. - Excluding food and energy, goods prices also rose by 0.3%, indicating a broad but moderate inflationary trend [4]. - Energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, while food prices rose by 0.2%. However, energy prices remain in a "deflationary" state year-on-year, providing a buffer for overall PPI growth [5]. Group 3: Service Prices and Inflation Dynamics - Service prices declined by 0.1% month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.4%, which was a major driver of the weaker PPI [7]. - The "deflationary" effect in services has successfully offset the price pressures from the goods sector, as companies have not fully passed on tariff pressures, leading to moderate changes in profit margins [8][10]. - The transmission of "tariff inflation" has not fully materialized in June, appearing more like a delayed process [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Implications - The path of inflation remains uncertain, with "lagged transmission" being a core concern for the market. Economists believe the coming months will be critical for observing whether "tariff inflation" will be fully released [10]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to reflect a "moderate inflation" trend, providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain its interest rate policy in the short term [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. PCE price index for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which aligns with the expected figure of 0.10% and matches the previous month's value of 0.10% [1]

美国第一季度PCE物价指数年率终值 2.6%，前值2.5%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the final value of the PCE price index for the first quarter in the United States is 3.7%, which is an increase from the previous value of 3.6% [1]

美国国际贸易法院周四凌晨判定特朗普总统援引《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的"解放日"关税政策越 权，市场情绪缓和，金价一度触及3245美元低位，然而在地缘局势和经济不确定性的整体环境下，逢低 买盘的涌入依然支撑金价。 新华财经北京5月30日电周四，国际金价开盘3287.97元，最高3331.11美元，最低3245.20美元，收盘报 3317.19美元。全天波幅85.91美元，上涨30.85美元，涨幅0.94%，日K线呈现带有长下影线的小阳线形 态，展现"金针探底"形态，有望进一步回升。 美国一季度GDP数据的上修可能不会改变美联储的观望立场。美联储将在今年秋季重启降息，下并在半 年降息1至2次的预期不变。美元指数自100上方快速回落，也为昨日金价上行提供了动力。 整体来看，因关税以及贸易协定谈判而引发的不确定性依然是左右市场价格走势的主要因素，今日晚 间，关注美国个人消费指出（PCE）物价指数数据带来的信息指引。 一、基本面影响因素 从整体而言，当前金价仍然处于月初预估的3150-3450美元区间内，整体走势基本符合预期，当前仍维 持在该区间内运行。随着月底临近，将维持在3300美元整数关口附近反复争夺，目前暂时 ...