Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum follows the retracement of gold and silver, while palladium remains under continuous pressure [1] - The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum and palladium prices showed declines. For example, the platinum futures 2606 closed at 548.00 with a -0.85% change, and the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) dropped 4.91% to 2019.10. Gold prices also decreased, with the New York gold main - continuous (previous day) down 7.92% to 1494.00 [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: There were changes in trading volume and positions. For instance, the trading volume of Guangdong platinum (kg) decreased by 5.623 to 4.636, and its position decreased by 227 to 24.489 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum and palladium ETF holdings decreased. The platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) decreased by 24,802 to 3,156,069, and the palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) decreased by 777 to 1,106,173. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories (ounces, previous day) remained unchanged [2] - **Spread Data**: There were changes in various spreads. For example, the PT9995 to PT2606 spread decreased by 3.28 to -7.05, and the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread decreased by 1.15 to 2.55 [2] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% to 100.18, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rates (CNY spot, CNH spot, 6M forward) all showed declines [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year decreased from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points [5] - Powell considered the interest rate to be at the upper end of the neutral range, and this energy supply disruption was a one - time event. He also made statements about his tenure [5] - US PPI data exceeded expectations, with the PPI annual rate reaching 3.4%, the highest since February last year [5] - There were escalating tensions in the Middle East, including threats from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, military actions between Israel and Iran, and attacks on Iranian energy facilities [5] - Trump exempted the implementation of the Jones Act to control high oil prices, and the US vice - president planned to announce a response policy within 48 hours [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices driven by geopolitical uncertainties and internal issues within the Federal Reserve, particularly related to investigations involving Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - The recent surge in gold prices saw it break the 4630 mark, with silver also reaching new highs, indicating strong market momentum [1][2] - The market is advised to watch for potential pullbacks, with key support levels identified at 4550 and 4530, and a critical resistance level at 4650-4660 [2][4] Group 2 - Upcoming economic indicators such as CPI and PPI are crucial for market participants to monitor, as they may influence future price movements [4] - The trading strategy suggests waiting for opportunities around the 4550-60 range for buying, while considering short positions near 4650 if the market shows signs of reversal [5]

Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5 points, down 0.23% as of December 10 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 497.46 points to 48057.75 points, an increase of 1.05% [1] - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for January 2026 rising by $0.21 to $58.46 per barrel, a 0.36% increase [1] Economic News - China's Vice Premier He Lifeng expressed support for the multilateral trade system centered around the WTO and opposed unilateralism and protectionism during a meeting with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala [2] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of special government bonds maturing in 2025, with a total issuance of 750 billion yuan, including 400 billion yuan for a 10-year bond and 350 billion yuan for a 15-year bond [3] - In November 2025, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with urban areas increasing by 0.7% and rural areas by 0.4% [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with an average decline of 2.7% from January to November [4] - The IMF projected China's economic growth rate to reach 5% in 2025, an increase of 2 percentage points from its previous forecast [4] Company News - Shanghai Disney Resort announced changes to its ticket refund policy effective January 12, 2026, allowing for a tiered refund standard for tickets purchased through official channels [7] - China National Chemical Corporation's subsidiary, Zhongke Shuguang, and Haiguang Information announced the termination of their merger, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for both companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November 2025 increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of growth, driven by seasonal demand in certain domestic industries [1] Group 1: Domestic Industry Trends - Seasonal demand increases in various domestic industries have led to price rises, particularly in coal and gas sectors, with coal mining and washing prices up by 4.1% and coal processing prices up by 3.4% [1] - The winter season has triggered a surge in demand for winter clothing, resulting in a 0.6% increase in wool processing prices and a 0.2% increase in down product processing prices [1] Group 2: Input Factors and Price Divergence - International price increases in non-ferrous metals have positively impacted domestic non-ferrous metal mining prices, which rose by 2.6%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and processing prices, which increased by 2.1% [1] - Conversely, the decline in international oil prices has negatively affected domestic oil and natural gas extraction prices, which fell by 2.4%, and refined oil product manufacturing prices, which decreased by 2.2% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Aluminum has an expected upward space, alumina has support at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,625, down 5 from the previous trading day, up 325 from a week ago, up 940 from a month ago, and up 1,210 from three months ago. The trading volume was 245,135, and the open interest was 365,196. The closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2,862, up 19 from the previous trading day. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 7.22%, down 0.33% from the previous trading day [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 607,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 63,800 tons, down 200 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 549,200 tons, up 900 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887, unchanged from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,426.50, up 182.40 from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot import loss was 1,870.05, and the 3M import loss was 1,778.71 [1] Alumina - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,783, down 4 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,560, and the open interest was 419,574 [1] - **Spot Market**: The domestic average alumina price was 2,873, and the Lianyungang CIF price was 2,885 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 94 [1] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,010, down 85 from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 4,610, and the open interest was 14,956 [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical profit of Baotai ADC12 was - 90 [1] Macroeconomic News - In China, the CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024, and the PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. In the US, the release of the CPI report was postponed, which may affect the Fed's decision on interest rates in December [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the recent PPI data from the U.S. supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, with a 100% probability of a rate cut indicated by CME's FedWatch tool following the data release [1][2] - The U.S. August PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, both figures falling short of market expectations, marking the first month-on-month decline in four months [1][2] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, again below market expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Following the PPI data release, President Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, claiming there is "no inflation" and demanding immediate significant rate cuts [2] - A federal judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, allowing him to participate in the upcoming Fed meeting, which may complicate Trump's influence over the Fed's rate decisions [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the PPI data and previous employment figures indicate a strong possibility of rate cuts, which could have profound implications for the U.S. stock market and economic performance [4] Group 3 - Despite the high probability of rate cuts, there is internal debate on Wall Street regarding the implications of such actions, with some analysts warning that aggressive cuts could signal a significant economic slowdown [4][5] - JPMorgan's trading team leader expressed caution, noting that rate cuts might trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, potentially leading to profit-taking among investors [5] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, remains cautious about the U.S. economic outlook, citing uncertainties related to tariffs, immigration, and geopolitical factors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is attributed to negative PPI data, leading to significant liquidations in the market, with Bitcoin dropping from $124,500 to a low of $117,180 and Ethereum from $4,788 to $4,451, currently showing signs of a rebound [1][4][6]. Market Overview - In the last 24 hours, a total of 224,738 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of $1.031 billion [1][2]. - Bitcoin's price is currently experiencing a rebound, but this is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a new upward trend, with significant resistance at $120,600 and key support levels at $116,188 to $115,188 [6][10]. Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin has faced pressure from the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, leading to a sharp decline after a brief rally, with critical support at $112,000 [4]. - The market is currently assessing two potential scenarios based on upcoming economic data, including PPI and unemployment claims, which could influence market direction [7][8]. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum broke through a significant support level, causing a broader market sell-off, with key support now at around $4,450 [7]. - Two potential scenarios are outlined: a bullish breakout above the mid-line resistance or a continuation of the downward trend testing lower support levels [8][12]. Altcoin Market - Following the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins also experienced corrections, with many major altcoins dropping by 4-6% [11]. - The altcoin market remains heavily influenced by Ethereum, with several projects showing strong performance, although concerns exist regarding their relative strength compared to Ethereum [11].

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos are confirmed candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated a potential early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Zervos argues that the Federal Reserve should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in the labor market and potentially create an additional one million jobs [4][5] - Zervos has consistently advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate during the last three Federal Reserve meetings [5] - Both candidates emphasize the importance of having individuals with market experience involved in monetary policy decisions [5]

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos have expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated he may appoint the next Fed Chair sooner than expected, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Sumerlin emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence, which has been questioned due to Trump's public criticism of current Chair Powell [3][4] - Zervos argues that the Fed should not be deterred by higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data and should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent labor market slowdown [5][6] - Zervos supports a potential rate cut of 200 basis points, contingent on economic narratives surrounding AI and supply-side deflationary pressures [6]