观 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 2025年8月12日 研究所晨会观点精萃 宏观金融：美元短期走强，关注美国 7 月通胀数据 【宏观】 海外方面 ...

2025.08. 12 本文字数：1890，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间12日（周二），美国将公布7月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 种种迹象表明，在4月触及四年低位后，美国通胀指标正在逐步回升。目前外界的焦点在于关税的影响范围和持续时间，这将影响未来美联储 的政策路径。近期，市场越来越相信美联储将在9月采取行动，并开始为50个基点进行定价。然而，关税推动的价格潜在反弹可能会影响政 策宽松的节奏。 高盛在最新发布的报告中表示，截至6月，美国企业承担了64%的成本。消费者承担了22%的关税，而外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担 了14%的关税。但这些数字将发生显著变化，到10月，美国消费者将承担三分之二的成本增长，而外国企业为25%，美国公司为8%。 富国银行认为，价格调整过程仍处于早期阶段，看看更高的进口税最终将如何在最终客户、国内卖家和外国出口商之间分配。与此同时，消 费者日益增长的疲劳感使提高总体价格变得更加困难。该行继续预计通胀将在今年下半年回升，但不会大幅走高，核心CPI和核心PCE平减 指数在第四季度将恢复到3%左右。 商品通胀或进一步回升 第一财经记者汇总发现，华尔街普遍预测 ...

当地时间周一，美股市场表现承压，三大股指收盘均告下跌。其中，道指下跌 0.45% ，纳指下跌 0.30% ，标普 500 指数下跌 0.25% 。 科技股方面，英伟达下跌 0.3% ， AMD 下跌 0.28% ，苹果股价下跌 0.95% ；而特斯拉则逆势 上涨 2.85% ，该公司已向英国能源监管机构提交家庭用电供应许可证申请。 热门中概股收盘呈现涨跌分化态势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌 0.29% 。 具体来看，阿里巴巴、拼多多、百度跌幅均超 1% ，京东下跌近 1% ；与之相对，腾讯音乐上涨 超 2% ，小鹏汽车涨幅超 5% ，哔哩哔哩上涨超 1% ，贝壳上涨 1% 。 01 黄金不会被加征关税 北京时间8月12日凌晨1:30，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文明确表示： " 黄金不会被征收关 税！ " 不过，特朗普的表态并未引发金价显著短线波动。发文后，现货黄金仍维持 1.58% 的跌幅，在日 低 3341.40 美元附近持稳； COMEX 黄金期货则维持 2.55% 的跌幅，持稳于日低 3402 美元附 近。 此后，现货黄金跌幅有所收窄，从 3341 美元附近回升至 3354.61 美元，日内整体仍下跌 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [1] - Large-cap tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, Facebook down 0.45%, Nvidia down 0.3%, Google down 0.21%, and Microsoft down 0.02% [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla saw an increase of nearly 3%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains [3] - Fannie Mae rose over 15% and Freddie Mac increased by more than 13%, both reaching their highest closing levels since 2008 [3] Sector Performance - Bank stocks showed mixed results, with Morgan Stanley up 0.53%, Bank of America up 0.38%, and JPMorgan up 0.32%. Conversely, Citigroup fell by 0.44%, Goldman Sachs down 0.24%, and Wells Fargo down 0.31% [5] - Gold stocks generally declined, with Harmony Gold, Eldorado Gold, and AngloGold down over 1%, and Coeur Mining down 0.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with individual stocks showing mixed performance. Xpeng Motors rose nearly 6%, Tencent Music up over 2%, while NIO, Bilibili, and Xiaoma Zhixing increased by over 1%. On the downside, WeRide fell over 4%, TAL Education down more than 3%, and Li Auto down nearly 3% [6] Commodity Prices - The FTSE A50 futures index fell by 0.32% to 13,881 points [9] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel (0.13% increase) and Brent crude up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel (0.06% increase) [9] - Gold futures dropped by 2.78% to $3,394.1 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [10] Currency Exchange - The offshore RMB (CNH) against the USD was reported at 7.1965, a decrease of 72 points from the previous Friday's close [11] Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to provide insights into the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [12][13]

After the Trump administration signaled a new executive order could be forthcoming that would clarify the United States' stance on whether gold imports should face tariffs, the president himself took the issue into his own hands with an announcement Monday that gold 'will not be Tariffed." Trump's announcement follows a ruling by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol's website, which said gold would be subject to reciprocal tariffs after a Switzerland-based precious metals broker asked for clarification on the ...

Core Viewpoint - Weyco Group, Inc. has faced significant challenges in its recent earnings report, with declines in both sales and earnings attributed to economic uncertainty and increased tariffs [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a second-quarter 2025 EPS of 24 cents, down from 59 cents in the prior-year quarter [1]. - Net sales decreased by 9% to $58.2 million from $63.9 million year-over-year [2]. - Net earnings fell 60% to $2.3 million compared to $5.6 million in the same quarter last year [2]. - Gross earnings as a percentage of net sales declined to 43.3% from 43.9% [2]. Segment Performance - In the North American Wholesale segment, sales dropped 9% to $45.6 million, with major brands like Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, Florsheim, and BOGS experiencing declines of 11%, 10%, 5%, and 14% respectively [3]. - Retail sales fell 11% to $6.8 million, driven by weaker demand on Florsheim and Stacy Adams websites [3]. - The "Other" category, which includes operations in Australia and South Africa, saw a 4% sales decline to $5.8 million, resulting in an operating loss of $0.2 million [3]. Management Commentary - The CEO described the quarter as facing "headwinds" from tariffs and reduced consumer spending, with expectations of continued economic uncertainty [4]. - Management highlighted the company's strong financial position, which they believe will support long-term growth despite current challenges [4]. - Efforts to diversify sourcing away from China to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and India were emphasized [4]. Influencing Factors - The earnings decline was primarily due to reduced consumer spending and higher import costs from tariffs, with the China-specific tariff peaking at 145% in April 2025 [5]. - Weyco has taken measures to mitigate cost pressures, including pre-purchasing inventory and negotiating supplier cost reductions [5]. Guidance - Management anticipates ongoing top-line pressure in the coming months due to tariffs and weak consumer sentiment, with potential seasonal softness in casual and dress footwear [6]. Other Developments - On August 5, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of 27 cents per share, payable on September 30, 2025 [7]. - The company allocated $3.1 million for share repurchases and approximately $0.7 million for capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a rebound, with major indices such as the Nasdaq rising by 3.9% and the S&P 500 by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging markets also saw gains, with the Ho Chi Minh Index up 6.0% and the Cairo CASE 30 up 4.7%, while the Indian SENSEX fell by 0.9% [3][11] - The Hang Seng Index and related indices all rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.2% [11] Group 2: Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 8.4% to $66.4 per barrel [26][27] - Coking coal prices surged by 12.3% to 1,227 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand [26][30] - Precious metals saw an increase, with COMEX gold rising by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce and silver up by 4.4% to $38.4 per ounce [30][31] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July in the U.S. was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June fell by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46] Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, with exemptions for companies that establish or commit to establishing manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - Additionally, a 25% tariff on Indian goods was implemented, totaling 50%, effective from August 28 [32] Group 5: Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auction for 10-year bonds saw weaker demand, with a high yield of 4.26% and a tail of 1.13 basis points, indicating reduced interest from investors [34] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.0 basis points to 4.3%, while yields on other developed market bonds generally declined [16][19] Group 6: Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump nominated Miran to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, which may influence future monetary policy [36] - Market reactions to the nomination included a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting expectations of a more dovish stance [36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group revenue increased by 14.3% to $2.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 9.3% to $137 million [4][12] - Adjusted net income was $53 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.55, reflecting a 12% growth compared to the prior year [5][14] - Operating income increased by 20% to $103 million, driven by higher revenue and gross profit [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fresh Fruit segment achieved adjusted EBITDA of $72.7 million, with strong volume growth in bananas and pineapples, although constrained by higher sourcing costs due to tropical storm Sarah [6][14] - Diversified EMEA segment saw adjusted EBITDA increase by approximately 15% to $49 million, driven by strong revenue growth in key markets [9][10] - Diversified Americas segment reported revenue growth of 8.5%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 27%, primarily due to strong performance in Southern Hemisphere exports [11][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, strong volume growth was noted in bananas and pineapples, with higher pricing contributing to revenue increases [6][14] - The European market experienced higher volumes and pricing across products, supported by tight sourcing conditions and a strengthening euro [7][10] - Industry supply was tighter than anticipated, impacting sourcing costs and overall market dynamics [8][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The sale of the fresh vegetable division was completed, allowing the company to focus on core business activities and strategic priorities [5][21] - The company is optimistic about internal and external development opportunities, particularly in fresh produce and diversified EMEA [54] - The company plans to maintain capital expenditures in line with depreciation and invest in rehabilitation projects following tropical storm damage [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the diversified business model despite short-term disruptions in the macroeconomic environment [20] - The company has adjusted its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards to a range of $380 million to $390 million [20] - Management acknowledged the complexity of forecasting in the current environment, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts [28][42] Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.85 for the second quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [19] - Cash capital expenditure from continuing operations was $19.4 million, with additional investments in logistics and infrastructure [17][18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciliation of updated EBITDA outlook - Management noted strong performance in 2024 but highlighted challenges from weather issues and sourcing costs impacting EBITDA guidance [24][26] Question: Impact of tariffs on pricing - Management explained the complexity of pricing adjustments due to various factors, including tariffs, sourcing issues, and foreign exchange volatility [30][34] Question: Fresh vegetables disposal and debt repayment - Management confirmed that proceeds from the fresh vegetable division sale would primarily be used for debt repayment and to clarify strategic focus [35][36] Question: Supply outlook beyond Q3 - Management indicated that while supply disruptions would continue into Q4, the industry typically stabilizes quickly [41][43] Question: Discussions on tariff exclusions - Management stated that they believe in the benefits of international trade and have seen some positive discussions regarding tariff exemptions for products not grown in the U.S. [44][46] Question: Future development opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing evaluations of acquisition opportunities and internal projects across various regions [52][54]

来源 | 美股投资网 以下文章来源于美股投资网 ，作者StockWe.com 美股投资网 . 美国洛杉矶投资公司，TradesMax.com为美股投资者提供美股行情和投资策略的专业网站。一支有着多年华尔街投资银行工作经验的美籍分析师团队，提供 公司研究报告、美股交易技巧、美股软件、美股开户指南、微信客服niugu88，微博美股投资网 美股市场进入多空力量胶着的关键时期。美国经济释放出疲软信号，投资者正权 衡人工智能热潮与经济基本面走弱之间的张力。 华尔街分析师Jan-Patrick Barnert指出，多头开始质疑，AI题材的热度是否足以单独支撑市场，尤其在关税压力、通胀侵蚀及劳动力市场降温 的背景下。 高盛合伙人Richard Privorotsky强调，关税实质上是一种税收，而通胀已经削弱实际收入，经济正处于周期末端，就业市场维持"不裁员，也不 招人"的低动态状态。 在市场宽度收窄、科技股权重攀至历史高位的环境下，投资者对冲风险的难度明显上升。 据高盛数据，今年其周期股与防御性股.票的对比指标已两度触及历史高点，显示市场仍在为经济增长定价，但一旦出现持续回撤，平衡可能 被迅速打破。 7月美股的反弹，很大程 ...

Export and Import Growth - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2% (previous value 5.9%), while import growth was 4.1% (previous value 1.1%) [5] - Month-on-month, July exports decreased by 1.1% compared to June, slightly below seasonal levels but higher than the same period in 2024 [5] - The trade surplus decreased in July 2025 [5] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, with growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments before August tariffs [11] - Exports to the United States decreased by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions increased by 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [11] Product-Specific Insights - In the machinery and electronics sector, equipment exports remained strong, while consumer electronics showed a decline due to previous over-shipments [18] - Labor-intensive imports decreased, while grain imports saw a notable increase [23] Future Outlook and Risks - Export growth is expected to moderate, with key risks including the implementation of Section 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments [29] - The resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment [29]