Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that multiple reports show tariffs are leading to narrowed profit margins or financial pressure on companies [1] Group 1 - Several companies are experiencing reduced profit margins due to the impact of tariffs [1] - Financial pressure is being reported by various businesses as a consequence of the current tariff environment [1]

Group 1 - The US consumer confidence index for November dropped to 88.7, marking a seven-month low and falling short of market expectations [1] - The index decreased by 6.8 from the revised October figure, with the present situation index at 126.9, down 4.3, and the expectations index at 63.2, down 8.6 [1] - A reading below 80 typically indicates a potential recession [1] Group 2 - Consumers under 35 showed an increase in confidence, while those aged 35 and above experienced a decline, with the largest drop among those aged 55 and older [1] - The confidence index for consumers earning less than $15,000 increased, while other income groups saw declines [1] - Inflation and prices remain the primary concerns for consumers, followed by tariffs, trade, and political issues [2] Group 3 - Retail sales in September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the growth rate slowed compared to August and fell below market expectations [2] - Economists project a 3% growth for the US economy in Q3, with a slowdown expected in Q4, primarily due to the impact of the government shutdown [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1: Monthly Performance of US Public Funds - In October 2025, the median performance of US equity funds was stronger than bond funds but weaker than international equity and asset allocation funds, with median returns of 0.56%, 0.89%, 0.51%, and 1.20% respectively [1][7][10] Group 2: Fund Flows and Inflows - In October 2025, active management funds saw a net inflow of $19 billion, while passive funds had a net inflow of $111.8 billion [8][20] - Open-end bond funds had a significant net inflow of $27.5 billion, while equity funds experienced a net outflow of $97 billion [25][23] - Among ETFs, equity and bond ETFs had net inflows of $104.4 billion and $49 billion respectively [25][23] Group 3: New Fund Issuance - A total of 62 new funds were established in October 2025, including 58 ETFs and 4 open-end funds, with 50 being equity funds, 10 bond funds, and 2 asset allocation funds [41][37] Group 4: Insights from Leading Asset Management Firms - Key themes from leading asset management firms included the outlook on US macroeconomic policies and foreign investment perspectives on the stock market [4][44] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a shift towards supporting the labor market amid rising employment risks [47] - Digital assets are expected to see increased institutional participation, with a focus on enhancing their utility beyond passive holding and speculation [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly refuted recession concerns, expressing strong confidence in the economic outlook and depicting a robust growth scenario for the future [1][2]. Economic Growth and Legislative Impact - Bessent attributed his optimistic forecast largely to a significant bill passed in July, which includes various stimulus measures such as substantial tax cuts and tax credits for auto loan interest income [2]. - He highlighted that due to this legislation, working families are expected to receive substantial tax refunds in the first quarter of next year, which will directly increase household disposable income and effectively stimulate consumer market growth [4]. Trade Agreements and External Stability - The government’s efforts in achieving multiple trade agreements and international peace accords are expected to provide a stable external environment for economic development [4]. Current Economic Challenges - Bessent acknowledged existing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and certain interest-sensitive industries that are currently stagnant [5]. - He clarified that the weakness in these sectors is localized and not indicative of a broader economic crisis [7]. Inflation and Tariff Analysis - On inflation and tariffs, Bessent noted that recent price increases are primarily driven by the service sector, particularly rising labor costs, while inflation levels for imported goods remain stable [7]. - He explained the recent decision to eliminate tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, tea, and beef, as a result of trade negotiations with Latin American countries, aimed at enhancing trade relations rather than responding to inflationary pressures [7]. Government Operations and Public Confidence - Bessent mentioned the significant negative impact of previous government shutdowns on the US GDP [8]. - He announced an upcoming initiative aimed at reducing health insurance premiums, which is seen as a measure to stabilize living conditions for the public [9]. - The coordinated messaging from economic leaders follows recent electoral setbacks for their party, aiming to reassure the market and public regarding the economic outlook [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Stainless Steel Product Prices**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - **International Trade Policy**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - **Production Adjustment**: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (11.17 - 11.21) - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Global instability remains, while force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs disturbed copper prices. Global instability persists, and force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 PMI - No specific PMI data or analysis is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, the supply - demand is in tight balance, and in 2025, there will be an oversupply. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, import was 3.73 million tons, export was 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [12][15]. 3.2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [22]. 3.3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - No specific analysis of the futures - spot price difference is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profit - No specific analysis of import profit is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific analysis of warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's preparation for a backup plan regarding tariffs in case the Supreme Court rules against his current tariff authority [2][4][5] - The U.S. government is exploring options under Trade Act Sections 301 and 122, which grant the president unilateral power to impose tariffs, although these options may face legal challenges and have limitations [4][6][9] - Analysts expect that if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable, Trump's team will quickly reinstate tariffs similar to previous policies [7][10] Group 2 - The average actual tariff rate on U.S. imports is approximately 14.4%, with over half of these tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [8] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, the government may have to refund over $88 billion in tariffs already collected [10] - The article mentions that Trump's recent executive order modified tariffs on Brazilian goods, maintaining a 40% tariff on some products while eliminating additional tariffs on specific agricultural imports [12][13][14][15]

Trade Policy Changes - The US has removed 40% tariffs on some Brazilian goods like coffee, meat, and fruits [1] - Approximately 22% of Brazilian exports to the US are still subject to tariffs [1] - The tariff removal impacts Brazilian products imported into the US on or after November 13, with refunds for previously collected tariffs following standard procedures [1] Bilateral Negotiations - The easing of tariffs is considered a "major advancement" in ongoing US-Brazil negotiations [1] - Brazil remains optimistic about continued negotiations with the US [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, indicates that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the short term due to a weakening labor market and reduced inflation risks [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Williams notes an increase in downside risks to employment as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have decreased [1][2] - The core inflation is on a downward trend, and there are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs impacting current inflation rates [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Current monetary policy is considered to have a certain degree of tightness, but its intensity has lessened compared to recent measures, suggesting potential adjustments to the federal funds rate target range [1] - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, reflecting uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding further cuts [2] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation Impact - Trade tariffs are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current inflation rate, but Williams does not foresee any significant second-round price effects from these tariffs [2] - The Consumer Price Index in the U.S. rose by 3% over the past year, raising concerns among officials about inflation management [2] Group 4: Long-term Inflation Goals - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to a 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [2] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the next year, but expects inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [2]