国际贸易委员会负责推动相关立法在议会审议通过，并主导与欧盟各国政府就美国进口商品关税最终方 案的谈判工作。 欧洲议会2月4日公告称，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会决定重启两项特恩贝里立法提案的工作，相关表决可 能在2月24日（周二）的下次委员会会议上进行。欧洲议会表示，仍致力于迅速推进这两项立法提案的 工作，前提是美国尊重欧盟及其成员国的领土完整与主权，并遵守特恩贝里协议条款。 2025年7月，欧盟与美国就关税及贸易问题达成政治协议（特恩贝里协议）。2025年8月发布的联合声明 中详细阐述了该协议内容，并宣布达成《欧盟-美国框架协议》。随后欧盟委员会发布两项立法提案， 旨在落实《欧盟-美国框架协议》中涉及关税的具体条款。 ...

2025年关税的成本几乎完全由美国企业承担，但对宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。 根据美国财政部数据，2025年美国关税收入增长迅猛。2025年全年，美国国土安全部共征收2870亿美元关税和缴费，同比增长192%。其中，约三分之一在 第四季度增收，较上一季度增长了5.2%。 与此同时，美国通胀虽然仍明显高于2%的目标水平，但并未激增。2025年消费者物价指数（CPI）在年初升至3%以上后，年中开始回落，年底稳定在 2.7%。剔除食品能源后的核心CPI全年同比增长2.6%，远低于经济学家此前预期的3%。个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）11月同比增长2.8%，生产者价格指数 （PPI）11月同比上涨3%。 关税为何没有导致通胀飙升 对于关税为何没有导致通胀飙升，主要有以下几种解释： 原因1：实际关税规模远小于法定税率 到目前为止，美国实际执行的关税政策规模远小于其宣称的规模。 IMF原第一副总裁、哈佛大学经济学教授吉塔·戈皮纳特与芝加哥大学经济学教授布伦特·奈曼的研究指出，美国实际征收的关税税率显著低于官方公布的法 定税率。 截至2025年9月，美国平均贸易加权关税税率在2025年4月达到32.8%的峰值。然而，如果按 ...

Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 China Futures Monthly Report 中国期货运行月报 2026/02/04 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】 https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Important Notice: This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only a ...

Core Insights - The global economy is entering a new phase influenced by geopolitical factors, policy shifts, and technological advancements [1] - The performance of the global economy in 2025 is under scrutiny due to tariff impacts, while expectations for stability in 2026 are being evaluated amidst a cooling of tariff tensions [1] - Key variables in the global market are emerging from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rapid advancements in AI technology [1] Summary by Sections - **Global Economic Performance**: The article discusses the overall performance of the global economy in 2025, particularly in light of tariff impacts and the potential for a more stable economic outlook in 2026 as tariff tensions appear to ease [1] - **Geopolitical and Technological Influences**: It highlights the underlying geopolitical conflicts and the rapid progress in AI as critical factors that could influence market dynamics moving forward [1]

尽管存在关税相关的不确定性以及其他地区的投资机会，但各家公司仍将重点放在美国，花旗集团财务 总监Mark Mason在"《华尔街日报》Invest Live"活动上表示。"对于许多公司来说，美国仍然是一个非常 好的赌注，"他说道。 他补充称，事实证明，美国经济在贸易战的喧嚣中表现出了韧性，并指出并购势头和资本需求仍在持 续。 Mason提到，许多首席执行官和首席财务官仍在担心关税的潜在影响及其对通胀的意义，但他并未看到 跨国公司中出现"抛售美国"的情绪。"我认为随着时间的推移，人们会意识到，你不会想要赌美国输。" 今日周三(2月4日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于87.40一线下方，今日开盘于84.75美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报86.67美元/盎司，上涨1.88%，最高触及88.24美元/盎司，最低下探83.22美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银市场昨日高开在80.075的位置后行情小幅回踩79.844的位置后行情强势震荡拉升，日线最高触及到 了89.185的位置后行情冲高回落，日线最终收线在了85.231的位置后，日线以一根上影线很长 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver is currently trading above $87.19, with an opening price of $84.92 per ounce and a current price of $87.42, reflecting a 2.94% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $87.98, while the lowest was $83.00, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in COMEX silver [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration is discussing plans to formally increase tariffs on South Korean goods, which could escalate trade tensions between the two allies [1] - Proposed tariffs would increase from 15% to 25% on "reciprocal" tariffs and specific goods such as automobiles, timber, and pharmaceuticals [1] - South Korea's Trade Minister Yoo Han-koo confirmed that diplomatic efforts are underway to ease the situation, including a visit to Washington to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lazard's CEO Peter Orszag suggests that the Federal Reserve may have made a mistake by lowering interest rates at the end of last year, as inflation could unexpectedly rise this year despite market perceptions of a decline [1] Economic Outlook - Orszag anticipates that artificial intelligence and high-income consumers could boost U.S. economic growth, describing this growth as "fragile yet strong" [1] - He emphasizes that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be realized, which could further increase inflation [1] Federal Reserve Position - Orszag believes the Federal Reserve is behind the curve, stating that the rate cut at the end of last year was unwarranted [1] - He warns that if inflation rises as he predicts, it could lead to further depreciation of the dollar and a steeper yield curve [1]

The partial government shutdown that began on Saturday morning is set to delay the release of the January jobs report that was slated for publication this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Monday that the January jobs report, which was originally scheduled for release on Friday, will be delayed until after the shutdown concludes with the restoration of government funding."The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding," Emily Liddel, an associate commissioner at BLS, said ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储官员穆萨勒姆：当前通胀超标的成因中，关税因素约占一半。 ...

美联储官员米兰：关税并非推动通胀的主要因素。 来源：滚动播报 ...