交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，出现抢时间窗口出口现象，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价 格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，随着关税调整，外贸企业赶 工潮出现。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+40），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差204，升贴水比例2.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-5.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a short-term decline, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index both showing a decrease of 0.05% and 0.5% respectively, marking three consecutive days of decline [2][3] - The trading volume for the Hang Seng Index was 184.7 billion HKD, the lowest in the past six trading days, indicating cautious market sentiment [5] Stock Performance - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaomi up by 2.65%, Meituan by over 2%, and Tencent by over 1%, while Alibaba fell by 3.4% and Baidu and Kuaishou dropped by over 2% [3][4] - The logistics sector remained strong throughout the day, while the consumer electronics sector led the declines, along with gaming, real estate, beer, and restaurant stocks [4][5] Short Selling Activity - The total short selling amount reached 22.22 billion HKD, accounting for 12.03% of the Hang Seng Index's trading volume, indicating an increase in short selling activity [5] - The top three stocks with the highest short selling amounts were BYD, Tencent, and Meituan, with amounts of 1.478 billion HKD, 1.365 billion HKD, and 1.358 billion HKD respectively [5] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that retail sales in April reached 37,174 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, while industrial value-added increased by 6.1% [7] - Despite resilient export data, concerns over tariffs remain a focal point in market negotiations, with potential impacts on market sentiment [7][9] Institutional Investment Outlook - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing market confidence and macroeconomic conditions have led to a predominance of bullish sentiment among foreign institutional investors towards Chinese assets [9] - The approval of China Life Asset Management's participation in long-term investment reforms is expected to bring in more incremental funds, potentially benefiting blue-chip stocks and creating new market variables [10][11]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that India has proposed a zero-tariff trade agreement to the United States during a 90-day pause period following the announcement of a 26% tariff by President Trump on major trading partners, including India [1] - President Trump mentioned that the Indian government is willing to not impose any tariffs on the U.S. [1] - The context of the trade negotiations highlights the ongoing tensions and retaliatory threats between the U.S. and other countries, including India and the EU, as they respond to U.S. tariff policies [3][5] Group 2 - Japan is also pursuing a zero-tariff goal in its trade negotiations with the U.S., but experts suggest that Japan has limited bargaining power due to structural contradictions in the negotiations [3] - The article discusses how the global economic order is shifting as countries begin to respond to unilateral tariffs with coordinated multilateral actions, diminishing the effectiveness of the U.S. "maximum pressure" strategy [8] - China's strategic countermeasures against U.S. tariffs have influenced other countries, including Japan, to seek the removal of tariffs, indicating a broader trend of resistance against unilateral trade policies [5][6]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: May 19, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the long - term. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural film, while for PP, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventories of both are neutral, and it is expected that the prices of PE and PP will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are the key factor. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. It's the off - season for agricultural film, but there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 102, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (- 5.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launch and weak crude oil [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs declined. Tariff games are crucial. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 189, with a premium ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (- 7.2), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of various sectors in the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the manufacturing and export sectors. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral to tight monetary policy is seen as beneficial in the short term, but long-term implications depend on inflation trends. If inflation remains above 2%, policies will tighten; if it falls below, easing may occur [1][5][18]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% new tariffs have severely impacted profit margins for low-end Chinese exporters, while high-end manufacturers can pass on some costs. Even without tariff changes, export data is expected to decline gradually, particularly in May [1][13][14]. - **Real Estate and Consumption Trends**: The long-term outlook for the Chinese real estate market is negative, with structural changes in consumption expected but not leading to significant growth. Traditional stimulus measures are unlikely to yield substantial results in the near term [1][19][21]. - **Market Recovery Post-Tariff**: The market has largely absorbed the impacts of the tariff disputes, with U.S. and Chinese stock markets recovering to pre-tariff levels. Gold prices have shown a reverse correlation with U.S. stocks, influenced by tariff-related capital flows [1][10][20]. - **Economic Data and Trade War Effects**: The first quarter of 2025 showed strong economic data in China, attributed to preemptive orders due to the trade war. However, risks are increasing as data begins to weaken in the second quarter [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Sensitivity to Currency Fluctuations**: High-end manufacturers are less sensitive to RMB fluctuations compared to low-end firms, which are more affected by tariff negotiations and currency depreciation [4][23]. - **Expectations for Future Stimulus**: The likelihood of significant stimulus measures in July is low, with a focus on structural changes rather than immediate economic boosts. The real estate sector may see some policy adjustments, but overall economic growth is not expected to rebound sharply [19][21]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market's performance in early 2025 was driven by factors such as trade tensions and capital outflows from U.S. equities, rather than central bank purchases [25][26]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile, with no immediate monetary easing anticipated unless economic data deteriorates significantly [24][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, economic performance, and market reactions.

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market driven by the easing of tariff tensions between China and the U.S., with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.09% during the week of May 12 to May 16, 2025 [2][15][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new regulations on major asset restructuring for listed companies, which are expected to enhance market activity and resource allocation efficiency [9][44] Domestic Developments - In April 2025, China's new social financing scale reached 1.1591 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2249 trillion yuan, primarily driven by government bond financing [4][6] - The People's Bank of China has implemented policies to lower interest rates and reserve requirements, which are expected to gradually boost corporate earnings in the Hong Kong market [44] International Developments - The U.S. and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariffs, with the U.S. canceling 91% of its additional tariffs and China reciprocating, which is anticipated to positively impact both economies [10][44] - U.S. inflation pressures have eased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.3% year-on-year in April, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [11][44] Market Performance - All eleven sectors in the Hong Kong stock market experienced gains, with financials, information technology, and consumer discretionary leading the way [17][44] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased to 231.274 billion HKD, reflecting heightened market activity [21][44] Investment Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from improved U.S.-China relations, such as durable consumer goods, defense, and technology, as well as those that will gain from domestic demand expansion [44] - Current valuations in the Hong Kong market are at historical averages, indicating potential for growth in the near term [24][34]

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（5.12-5.16） 关税博弈阶段性缓和，美国通胀仍在下行 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快构建科技金融体制，持续推进城市更新。5 月 13 日，中国－拉美 和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议在北京举行，同日，中国和巴西发 布关于强化携手构建中巴命运共同体的联合声明，未来我国自巴西进口有望持 续增加，中国企业向巴西出海投资的步伐也有望加快；14 日，科技部联合中 国人民银行等七部门发布《加快构建科技金融体制 力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项具体措施，推动金融资源精准投向科技创新 领域；同日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕经济 形势、稳就业稳经济政策落实等议题，系统回应民营企业关切，释放了强化政 策执行、法治保障和战略引导的积极信号；15 日，中办、国办印发《关于持 续推进城市更新行动的意见》，系统部署八大任务与六大支撑保障措施，城市 更新改造后续或将获得更多财政和融资等方面的支持。 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the surge in "rush shipping" among U.S. companies due to a 90-day pause on tariffs, leading to increased cash flow pressure and logistics costs, which challenge supply chain stability [3][5][11] - The uncertainty in U.S. economic policy has reached a high point, causing companies to lower sales and profit forecasts as they struggle to predict future import tariff changes [3][5] - Small businesses, particularly those reliant on imports from China, are facing declining profit margins and rising costs, leading to potential layoffs and reduced product offerings [5][9] Group 2 - The rush to stock up for the summer and back-to-school seasons is causing order fulfillment issues, with hundreds of companies competing for limited shipping resources, potentially leading to port congestion [8] - The ongoing tariff conflict highlights the deep integration of the global economy, with cross-border trade trends continuing despite geopolitical uncertainties [8][11] - Initial tariffs aimed at weakening China's position in the global supply chain have instead disrupted supply chains and increased trade costs, contributing to inflationary pressures [11]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 1% and the Hong Kong Technology Index dropping over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (code: 931573), which includes 30 large-cap technology companies with significant R&D investment and good revenue growth, covering sectors like Internet, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Huachuang Securities indicates that the technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to strengthen as tariff disputes ease and the April earnings season concludes, shifting market sentiment towards policy and industry trends [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that an improved policy environment can boost risk appetite, making the relatively undervalued and policy-supported Hong Kong technology sector attractive [2] - The overall policy aims to activate the capital market and reduce financing costs, while structural policies focus on promoting technological upgrades, with positive statements regarding quasi-equalization funds likely to solidify the lower end of the Hong Kong stock index [2] - The focus on technological innovation is a key area of policy support, and the early release of policies is significant for stabilizing expectations amid economic data that has not yet reflected the impact of trade frictions [2]