股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...

Group 1: External Pressures - The announcement by Trump on May 24 regarding tariffs on EU goods and mobile manufacturers has created significant downward pressure on global markets, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, both dropping over 0.6% [1][2] - The indirect impact of these tariffs on the A-share market has resulted in heightened market volatility and investor anxiety, particularly evident in the sharp decline observed at the end of May [2][3] - The drop in European markets, with indices like Germany and France falling over 1.5%, has increased liquidity pressures on the A-share market, as foreign capital may withdraw in response to global risk aversion [3] Group 2: Domestic Support Factors - Northbound capital saw a record inflow of 224.49 billion yuan on May 30, indicating strong foreign confidence in Chinese assets, with significant investments in sectors like financials and consumer goods [5] - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to announce major financial policies, further enhancing market expectations for growth-supporting measures [6] - The stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the actions of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange are providing a solid foundation for the market, helping to attract foreign investment and bolster market confidence [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The Hong Kong market exhibited a "V-shaped" recovery on June 2, which may signal a potential emotional recovery for the A-share market, as historical trends suggest that A-shares often follow Hong Kong's lead [7] - The A-share market is anticipated to open lower but may experience a rebound if it can hold above the critical support level of 3100 points, which is a significant psychological barrier [8] - The focus of market recovery is likely to shift towards large-cap stocks, especially as the upcoming half-year report period increases attention on companies with stable earnings and cash flow [10] Group 4: Sectoral Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor and AI sectors are highlighted as having substantial growth potential due to ongoing technological advancements and increasing market demand [13] - Consumer sectors, particularly those related to e-commerce, are expected to benefit from the upcoming 618 shopping festival, presenting investment opportunities [13] - Defensive investments in high-dividend sectors such as coal and electricity are recommended to provide stable returns amid market volatility [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the mid - term tariff negotiation results uncertain, OPEC+ increasing oil production, and the demand side in a weak state. However, the strong basis is a bullish factor. It is expected that both PE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. It's the off - season for agricultural films, many small and medium - sized factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 95, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.4%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (-0), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and it's the off - season for agricultural film demand with new capacity pressure. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [6] - **Weakening Factors**: New capacity launch, weak crude oil [6] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently, with insufficient demand for pipes and good rigid demand for packaging films. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 182, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-0), neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, bullish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Leveraging Factors**: Strong basis [9] - **Weakening Factors**: Weak crude oil [9] - **Main Logic**: New capacity launch, tariff policy [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed accordingly [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Inner Mongolia Pinyangyang Group due to tariffs affecting their exports to the U.S. market, and the strategic decisions made by the company's general manager, Lv Pin, to navigate these difficulties [2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Decisions - Lv Pin proposed three decisive strategies in response to the tariff situation: "cut," "shrink," and "adjust" [2]. - The first strategy involved significantly reducing shipments to the U.S. market while maintaining a small portion to preserve market share and credibility [4]. - The second strategy focused on extending production cycles, managing inventory levels, and prioritizing shipments based on product profitability [6]. - The third strategy aimed to shift market focus towards Europe and Russia, seeking alternative markets in light of the challenges in the U.S. [6]. Group 2: Financial Considerations - Lv Pin developed a "2-1" plan, which involves calculating profits from the past two years minus the current year's losses, and reassessing the strategy if the result equals zero [8]. - The company has an annual revenue of 120 million, with foreign trade accounting for 20 million, representing one-sixth of total revenue [10]. Group 3: Market Relationships - Despite the tariff challenges, some U.S. clients have increased their orders and even proposed price hikes, indicating strong partnerships based on trust [9]. - The relationship with a key U.S. client, "Lao Yuedeng," exemplifies the importance of trust in international business dealings [9][13]. Group 4: Industry Context - The article highlights the upcoming "Good Life Expo," which aims to stimulate consumer activity and support quality brands, showcasing a collaborative effort among major e-commerce platforms [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Inner Mongolia Pinyangyang Group due to tariffs affecting their business with the U.S. market, and the strategic decisions made by the general manager, Lv Pin, to navigate these difficulties while maintaining market presence and customer trust [2][4][9]. Group 1: Company Strategy - The company, led by Lv Pin, has an annual revenue of 120 million, and is primarily affected by tariffs on exports to the U.S. market [3]. - Lv Pin proposed three strategies: "cut," "shrink," and "adjust" to mitigate the impact of tariffs [3][4]. - The first strategy involves significantly reducing shipments to the U.S. while maintaining a small volume to preserve market share and credibility [4][6]. - The second strategy focuses on extending production cycles and managing inventory levels to control costs and ensure continued supply to long-term clients [6]. - The third strategy is to shift market focus towards Europe and Russia, seeking alternative markets in response to the challenges in the U.S. [6][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the tariff challenges, some U.S. clients have increased their orders and even proposed price hikes, indicating a strong partnership based on trust [9]. - The company has expanded its foreign trade scale to 20 million, accounting for one-sixth of total revenue, and continues to grow [11]. - The article highlights the importance of trust in international business relationships, as exemplified by the partnership with the U.S. client "Lao Yuedeng" [9][11]. Group 3: Industry Context - The article mentions the upcoming "Good Life Expo," aimed at enhancing consumer vitality and supporting quality brand growth, which reflects the broader industry trend of fostering market connections [12]. - The expo will feature a unique online-offline integration model to connect quality products with domestic distribution channels, promoting high-quality development for participating companies [12].

Core Viewpoint - North Glass Co., Ltd. (北玻股份) is a leading player in the glass processing equipment industry in China, recognized for its innovative solutions and significant collaborations, particularly with Apple Inc. The company has successfully navigated market challenges, including tariff disputes, by diversifying its client base and focusing on quality and innovation [3][6][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - North Glass, established in 1995, is the only A-share listed company in the glass processing equipment sector in China [3]. - The company has gained attention for its unique glass structures, such as the "glass cylinder" at the Apple Store in Lujiazui, Shanghai, and has secured over 100 orders for glass curtain walls from Apple [6][9]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Despite challenges from tariff disputes, North Glass has maintained a strong presence in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Japan, and is gaining traction in the Middle East [9]. - The company emphasizes innovation as its core principle, stating that technical confidence and the ability to tackle complex challenges have been key to its success [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events - The first "Good Life Expo" (好博会) will be held from June 27 to 29 in Beijing, aimed at stimulating consumer activity and supporting quality brands, with participation from major e-commerce platforms [11].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline on May 28, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.31%[2] - Trading volume reached 1.03 trillion CNY, a slight increase of approximately 100 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Most sectors declined, with textiles, environmental protection, coal, and transportation showing slight gains, while chemicals, agriculture, automotive, and military industries faced the largest declines[1] - The semiconductor sector reacted coldly to a meeting aimed at enhancing Sino-European semiconductor cooperation, indicating a decrease in market sensitivity to previously significant news[1] Economic Indicators - State-owned enterprises reported a total profit of 13,491.4 billion CNY from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 68 billion CNY in government bonds in Hong Kong this year, with the first two phases totaling 25 billion CNY already completed[5] Investment Insights - Given the recent decline in domestic deposit rates, high-dividend sectors are becoming more attractive for investment[1] - The market is currently in a "vacuum period" following tariff impacts and earnings disclosures, suggesting that a significant rebound may not be imminent[1] Fund Dynamics - As of April 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China has surpassed 33 trillion CNY for the first time, reaching 33.12 trillion CNY[9] - The private equity fund managed by Taikang Stable Growth has completed its registration, with an expected initial investment of 12 billion CNY, marking progress in long-term stock investment trials[10][11]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

Group 1 - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to restart the interest rate cut cycle to alleviate pressure on the housing market [1] - Pulte emphasized that lowering interest rates would directly improve homebuyer affordability and inject much-needed liquidity into the stagnant housing market [1] - The Trump administration has consistently pressured the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, linking tight monetary policy with trade protectionism that suppresses economic vitality [3] Group 2 - Economists point out that the underlying issues in the U.S. housing market stem from structural contradictions, including a growing housing inventory gap and limited new home construction due to rising material costs and labor shortages [3] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% compared to 2020 [3] - Over 60% of retail businesses plan to raise end prices in the coming quarters to pass on the cost pressures from tariffs, indicating a cost-push inflation scenario [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy stance despite political pressure, keeping the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points in the second half of 2024 [4] - Powell stated that monetary policy will not yield to short-term political considerations, emphasizing the need for strategic consistency amid economic uncertainties caused by tariff disputes [4] - The combination of rising construction costs and labor shortages, along with tariff-induced price increases, poses a dual pressure on the housing market, complicating the Fed's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。 供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7440（+0）， 基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差360，升贴水比例5.1%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位 ...