Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian officials are requesting the United States to exempt rubber from tariffs, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and the importance of rubber in bilateral trade relations [1] Group 1 - The request for tariff exemption highlights Indonesia's reliance on rubber exports and the need for favorable trade conditions to maintain competitiveness in the global market [1] - This move may reflect broader trade negotiations between Indonesia and the United States, aiming to strengthen economic ties and enhance trade volumes [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia is negotiating with the United States for a waiver on a 19% tariff on palm oil, cocoa, and nickel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that President Trump does not intend to establish tariff exemptions for the energy industry [1] Group 1 - The announcement indicates a firm stance from the administration regarding tariffs and their impact on the energy sector [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean government plans to strengthen trade negotiations with the United States, viewing President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs starting August 1 as effectively extending the grace period for reciprocal tariffs [1] - The South Korean presidential office stated that Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the new deadline set by Trump means there is still time for both countries to reach an agreement [1] - South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to reach a record high of $55.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from 2023, driven by growth in automobile exports [1] Group 2 - As the fourth largest economy in Asia, South Korea has urgently dispatched its chief trade negotiator and the head of the presidential security office to the U.S. to negotiate trade and defense matters, aiming for tariff exemptions [2] - The South Korean presidential office reported that discussions with Rubio in Washington resulted in a consensus on alliance relations and trade negotiations, suggesting that a summit between the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. would enhance cooperation [2] - The South Korean government acknowledged a lack of sufficient time to reach consensus on all issues with the U.S. since the new administration took office [2]

Group 1 - The euro remains stable with a 0.5% decline, holding around 1.1720 against the US dollar [1] - EU officials are considering a potential agreement to implement basic tariff exemptions on major export products, including aircraft and spirits, in upcoming trade negotiations with the US [1] - The EU is working to balance automotive trade by potentially offsetting US car exports with corresponding imports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound last week, indicating potential for further upward movement despite some volatility [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $3272.74 per ounce, reached a low of $3247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3365.51 before closing at $3334.83, resulting in a weekly increase of $62.09 or 1.9% [1][3]. Economic Influences - The decline in the US dollar index and signs of economic contraction in the US have provided support for gold prices, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year [3][5]. - Market reactions to employment data and the potential for further economic stimulus have also contributed to the bullish sentiment for gold [3][5]. Upcoming Events - The focus for the upcoming week includes the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the July 9 deadline for tariff exemptions, which could influence market sentiment and gold prices [5][9]. - A dovish tone from the Fed could lead to a weaker dollar and support for gold, while a focus on maintaining high interest rates could have the opposite effect [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential topping pattern for gold prices, with risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [7][9]. - Current support levels to watch include the 60-day moving average and the 20-week moving average, with potential upward movement if prices stabilize above these levels [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3323 or $3304, while resistance levels are at $3340 or $3350 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $36.85 or $36.70, with resistance at $37.20 or $37.60 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green, driven by the banking sector's strong performance [1][2]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector's total market capitalization reached 15.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.37 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, with the banking index rising by 15.63% [6][9]. - Analysts attribute the strong performance of the banking sector to three main factors: liquidity support from state-owned entities, continuous inflow of long-term funds, and expectations from public fund reforms [9][12][13]. - The banking sector is seen as attractive due to its large market capitalization, stable earnings, and high dividend yield, which enhances its appeal to investors [8][18]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite the recent rise, the banking sector is considered to have room for further valuation recovery, as it is currently at a moderate level compared to previous highs [15][17]. - The central bank's intention to strengthen monetary policy and the potential for interest rate cuts may further enhance the attractiveness of bank dividends [17][18]. - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced investment strategy, gradually building positions to enjoy long-term investment benefits while avoiding concentrated bets on a single sector [19]. Group 3: Tariff Developments and Market Impact - The upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 is expected to create uncertainty in the market, particularly affecting sectors sensitive to tariffs, such as technology and home appliances [22][24]. - If tariff exemptions are not extended, Chinese exports may face increased cost pressures, potentially leading to short-term foreign capital risk aversion [24]. - Long-term, the expiration of tariff exemptions is not expected to alter the trend of upgrading China's manufacturing sector, with leading companies maintaining their competitive edge [24][25]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector is likely to face short-term pressure due to tariff sensitivities, while banking and dividend-focused sectors may become preferred options for risk-averse investors [25][26]. - Precious metals and rare earth sectors are expected to see a reassessment of their value due to geopolitical risks and expectations of a weaker dollar [26].

| 《八 国投期货 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | | | | ★☆☆ | 原油 | 女女女 | 燃料油 | 能源日报 2025年07月02日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 李祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 隔夜国际油价小幅上行, S008合约涨0.24%。二季度全球石油库存累增1.6%,其中原油库存累增1.1%、成品油 库存累增2.4%;上周美国API原油库存超预期增加68万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。伊以冲突停火后油价重回宏 观及供需逻辑主导，7月9日后美国对大部分国家的关税豁免、8月中旬后中美间24%对等关税豁免是否延续仍构 成;宏观面风险,OPEC+快速增产预期之下供需展望仍偏宽松,原油近期以震荡偏弱看待。关注布伦特重回57-67 美元/桶、SC重回430-510元/桶区间后临近上边界的做空机会，风险点在于旺季需求环比改善对累库预期的祖转 程度。 【 ...

Economic Indicators - June PMI data shows a continued upward trend, but the rate of increase has slowed down, indicating potential economic uncertainty[6] - Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5% in May, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%[6] - Production and new orders PMI for June are at 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating stable demand but a slowdown in growth[6] Inventory and Orders - Raw material inventory PMI is at 48%, and finished goods inventory PMI is at 48.1%, both showing an increase[2] - New export orders PMI is at 47.7%, reflecting a slowdown in growth and indicating that indirect trade impacts from U.S. tariff exemptions are nearing their end[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 50.9%, while basic raw materials PMI is at 47.8%, indicating a significant increase[6] - Construction activity index for June is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting robust infrastructure project progress[6] Risks and Outlook - Global supply chain competition is intensifying, and external demand may change faster than expected, posing risks to economic stability[3] - The report suggests that while current macroeconomic data appears stable, ongoing policy support is necessary to sustain demand amid uncertainties[6]