证券研究报告 宏观 美国"大而美"法案的近忧与远虑 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 专题研究 概览：7 月 3 日，众议院投票通过"大而美"法案，7 月 4 日特朗普签署后 正式生效。权衡各方诉求后惊险"闯关"的最终版本长达 869 页，其隐含财 政扩张力度明显超过 5 月通过的众议院版本。我们维持 2026 年美国财政赤 字 7%的预测。"大而美"法案的实施有望对 2025 年 4 季度和 2026 年增长 带来短期提振，但这一财政扩张可能代价不菲。"大而美"法案的内容、逻 辑及立法过程都可能进一步削弱美国政府公信力。短期，美国债务可持续性 和通胀风险均可能加剧。中长期，该法案再次验证了在当前政治和舆论环境 下，美国减税和增支均有极强惯性。法案中 2029 年后收敛赤字的愿景或难 以实现。该法案将可能进一步恶化美国收入和社会福利分配，加剧政治极化。 1.预计 10 年增加财政赤字 4.1 万亿美元，赤字率较 2010-19 年上升 3-4pct "大而美"法案在众议院以 218:214 获得通过，快于 2017 年特朗普第一届 任期的减税法案和奥巴马的全民医保法案，相对于法案长度和内容繁复程度 而 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the challenges faced by Xiaomi in the automotive sector, particularly in balancing production efficiency with quality and delivery issues [1][2][4] - Xiaomi's factory in Beijing operates at a remarkable pace of 76 seconds per vehicle, outperforming competitors like Tesla's Model 3 at 90 seconds and the industry average of 120 seconds [1] - Despite high production speed, Xiaomi's SU7 model faces significant delivery backlogs, with 150,000 units unfulfilled, indicating underlying operational challenges [2] Group 2 - The company has ambitious production goals, aiming for a monthly output of 8,000 units by August 2025, with a target annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles by the end of the year [2] - Xiaomi's aggressive cost-cutting measures include prepaying for battery supplies to reduce costs, but this has led to quality issues, with 32% of early SU7 owners reporting complaints about vehicle noise [2][3] - The company is also facing legal challenges, with a patent dispute initiated by Li Auto over alleged infringement, highlighting the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market [3] Group 3 - Xiaomi's strategy of rapid production and low pricing has resulted in a significant reduction in hardware profit margins, with the SU7's gross margin dropping to 1% [3] - The company is experiencing a trust crisis due to quality concerns, including a fatal accident linked to delayed automatic emergency braking (AEB) response times [3][4] - The upcoming performance of the second-phase factory in Q3 2025 will be critical for Xiaomi's automotive business, as success could lead to breakeven, while failure may jeopardize consumer confidence and future orders [4]

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of oil prices, supply, and demand forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Oil Price Forecasts - The 2025 Brent price forecast has been raised marginally by $1/bbl to $67/bbl, with a forecast of $65 in 3Q25, reflecting a slight increase in risk premium [2][16][18] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility in 2Q25, fluctuating over a $20/bbl range due to tariff risks and geopolitical tensions [2][16] - The expectation is for Brent prices to drop to the low to mid-$60s in the near term, with a projected surplus in the oil market [7][37] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, contributing to larger surpluses in the oil market over the next three quarters [3][19] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is anticipated to add approximately 1.1Mb/d by the end of August, with actual increases likely falling short of targets due to compensation plans [19][55] - US shale production is projected to grow by 0.3Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026, with rig activity trending lower [20][82] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 0.8Mb/d in 2025, reflecting improved GDP growth prospects and resilient demand year-to-date [21][22] - The demand outlook has improved due to a more favorable impact from tariffs than initially feared [40] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with no significant impact on oil flows observed [66] - Renewed tensions in the Middle East could potentially lift Brent prices back into the $70/bbl range, but skepticism about supply disruptions remains [8][22] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental loosening of the market [23] - The overall market balance is looser by 0.2Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, driven by rising OPEC+ supply [37] Upside and Downside Risks - Upside risks include firmer global economic growth and improved OPEC+ compliance, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and further OPEC+ production increases [32] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories have been on an upward trend, with a continued build through 2Q25, indicating a growing surplus in the market [37][96] Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in oil demand, particularly in the Middle East, which could further impact prices [3] - The potential for higher Iranian exports exists, although US pressure on Iran appears less likely [4][66] - The overall sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for oil prices in the near term, with expectations of lower prices driving supply responses from US producers [7][37] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment.

25H1 原油市场波动剧烈，关注地缘政治和 OPEC+增产 进展 20250706 摘要 地缘政治事件，如罗斯施制裁、俄乌冲突调停及伊朗与以色列冲突，引 发油价短期波动，但未能改变整体下跌趋势。布伦特原油和 WTI 原油年 初至今分别下跌约 10%，当前价格分别为 66.63 美元/桶和 64.97 美元 /桶。 OPEC+持续推进增产计划，8 月份增产量将达 54.8 万桶/日，为 3 月定 增量值的 4 倍。今年以来，OPEC+累计增产配额已达 191.8 万桶/日， 进一步加剧了原油市场的供给压力。 IEA 预测今年全球石油需求增长为 72 万桶/日，明年预计增长 74 万桶/ 日，较年初预测值下修 30 万桶/日。经济增长低迷和清洁能源替代是需 求预期下调的主要原因。 IEA 预计今年原油供给量增加 180 万桶/日，其中 OPEC+国家预计增加 40 万桶/日。全球石油市场整体呈现供过于求的宽松状态，对油价构成 下行压力。 Q&A 2025 年上半年原油市场的走势如何？ OPEC+增产计划对 2025 年的原油供给产生了显著影响。最新宣布将在 8 月份 增产 54.8 万桶每日，这一数字是今年 3 ...

美国主要贸易伙伴周末仍在争分夺秒敲定贸易协议，或者为争取更多时间游说。美国总统特朗普表示， 他将于下周一（ 7 月 7 日）向约十几个国家通知其最新关税水平。 " 我签署了一些信函，它们将于周一 发出，可能有 12 封， " 特朗普在独立日假期周末告诉记者。他还补充道，这些信函涉及 " 不同金额、 不同幅度的关税和略有不同的措辞 " 。当被问及涉及哪些国家时，他回答道： " 我会在下周一宣布。 " 首席点评： 美国设定新单边关税税率 据央视新闻，当地时间 7 月 4 日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴，设定 新的单边关税税率。特朗普称，新关税 " 十有八九 " 从 8 月 1 日开始生效。对于将设定的新关税，特朗 普说， " 关税税率可能从 60% 、 70% 到 10% 、 20% 不等 " 。国务院副总理刘国中在广东调研时强 调，要加快推进农业和医疗领域科技创新，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，提升药品医疗器械自主创新 能力，有力促进产业提质升级和经济高质量发展。要加快构建药品医疗器械领域全国统一大市场，支持 企业参与国际竞争，拓展医药产业发展空间。欧佩克 + 同意将 8 月份的石油产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent de-escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in oil prices, with SC crude oil futures dropping nearly 15% from their June highs, as geopolitical risk premiums have been rapidly eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the decline in oil prices is attributed to global trade tensions and increased production by OPEC+, resulting in a more relaxed supply-demand balance, with seasonal demand already priced in [1][2]. - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, driven by low global oil inventories, which have remained relatively low since 2020 [1][2]. - The ongoing restructuring of global trade routes and regional disparities in oil inventories have contributed to lower stock levels in key delivery hubs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that as geopolitical tensions ease, the market will refocus on fundamental factors, with OPEC+ members like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kazakhstan accelerating production [3][4]. - In the absence of significant demand growth, the increased supply from OPEC+ is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, with potential for Brent and WTI crude futures to break above $80 per barrel, while SC crude may exceed 580 yuan per barrel [3][4]. - The market is likely to experience substantial inventory accumulation in the third and fourth quarters, with a prevailing narrative of "weak demand + oversupply" shaping oil pricing for the latter half of the year [4].

中金研究 2025年7⽉4⽇，特朗普正式签署《⼤美丽法案》[1]，基本兑现了其竞选期间提出的核⼼减税承诺。该法案分为五⼤部分，涵盖企业减税、个⼈与家 庭减税、削减清洁能源补贴、压缩医疗补助（Medicaid）以及削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）。整体来看，《⼤美丽法案》将在未来推升财政⾚ 字，但部分⾚字可通过关税收⼊予以对冲。我们测算显⽰，法案对2026年实际GDP的拉动在0.5个百分点以内，对通胀的推升作⽤不超过0.15个百分 点；未来⼗年，关税+减税的组合将增加净⾚字约1.3万亿美元，⾚字率将维持在6%左右。鉴于当前失业率低、通胀温和、私⼈部⻔资产负债表健康， 美国政府债务尚⽆迫切⻛险。中期来看，财政的约束将更多取决于通胀过⾼与财政效率下降，但⽬前这两种情形尚未出现。在通胀可控的前提下，美 国财政的空间可能⽐过去40年来主流经济学所想的要更⼤。 点击小程序查看报告原文 图表1：《大美丽法案》的核心内容 | | 《大美丽法案》内容 | 生效时间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 企业减税 | | | | 企业税收优惠(设备全额折旧、研发费 | | | | 用全额即时扣除、基于EBITDA的利息 ...

高温天气带动用电负荷持续攀升。近期，全国多个省份陆续调整分时电价机制，以市场化手段破解电力 供需平衡难题。 发电侧，通过价格信号引导用户用电行为与新能源出力特性相匹配，有利于破解新能源消纳问题。新能 源发电具有波动性、间歇性特征，尤其是光伏，主要发电时段较为集中，11时至14时通常是出力高峰 期，与用户用电高峰期存在时间错配，该时段电力供应远大于需求，若沿用以往的电价机制，既无法反 映真实的供需关系，又容易造成大量弃电，所以多个省份陆续把中午时段调整为低谷甚至深谷电价时 段。 用户和电网侧，通过价格信号的精准调控引导削峰填谷，有利于降低用户用电成本、保障电网安全稳定 运行。比如，海南"零点高峰"现象极具代表性。截至2024年底，海南新能源汽车保有量达40.9万辆，新 能源汽车集中在零点充电，导致电网负荷纪录频繁刷新，2023年和2024年迎峰度夏期间，在"00:00— 00:20"时段13次创新高，电网系统调节能力面临挑战。为此，从2025年4月1日起，海南省调整了分时用 电时段，原谷时段"00:00—00:20"变为平时段，而"08:00—10:00"则调整为新的谷时段，通过分时电价的 调整引导用户主动参与 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 7月4日，华宝基金发布公告称，为保护持有人的利益，自7月7日起，华宝纳斯达克精选股票型发起式证 券投资基金（QDII）在各代销机构的单日单个基金账户累计申购（含定投，A类、C类份额分别计算） 金额上限调整为2万元（含）。公开资料显示，该基金此前的大额申购限制为5000元。 同日，华宝基金还有多只QDII产品调整了大额申购限制金额。比如，华宝致远混合型证券投资基金 （QDII）将之前2万元的大额申购门槛调整为20万元，华宝海外科技股票（QDII-LOF）将之前2000元的 大额申购门槛调整为1万元。 7月以来，不少QDII基金恢复了正常申购业务或提升申购限制金额。比如，华安基金在7月2日发布公告 称，为满足基金投资者的投资需求，公司决定自7月3日起恢复华安日经225ETF的申购业务。此外，汇 添富纳斯达克生物科技ETF发起式联接（QDII）、汇添富纳斯达克100ETF发起式联接（QDII）等多只 产品发布公告称，恢复大额申购业务。 7月以来，华宝基金、汇添富基金、华安基金等多家公募机构旗下QDII产品"开门迎客"，或恢复QDII产 品的正常申购业务，或提升QDII产品的大额限购金额。 据悉， ...

美国财长贝森特：埃隆.马斯克应该专注于商业，而不是政治。 ...