该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月21日，单位净值为2.398元。基金经理是黄海，目前管理的3只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月21日，万家新利 近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达15.69%；万家宏观择时多策略A最低，为9.56%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，展望 2026 年一季度，从资金角度，一季度险资有望实现"开门红"、居民定期存款集中到期、外资年初季节性配置规律，整体 来看，我们预计一季度市场增量资金相对充裕，主要宽基指数有望呈现偏强震荡的格局，结构性机会较多。 投资策略上，中期看，我们认为当前以中美博弈为核心的全球宏观和地缘政治已经陷入高波动的状态，为应对不确定性，各国前期大概率进一步加大财政和 货币扩张力度，而弱化债务和通胀风险，但这又进一步导致未来更大的宏观动荡风险。因此，投资策略上我们"以不变应万变"，我们认为高现金流、高股息 的红利资产，依然是从绝对收益角度，能够抵御内外高宏观波动的稀缺优质资产。从投资方向上，我们维持此前的判断，我国经济的主要矛盾已经从房地产 周期转向制造业的产能周期，未来"扩内需"需配合"反内卷"协同发力。考虑当前国内宏观经济投资端的疲弱已传导至消费，因此，我们判断基 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The market is expected to continue its oscillation and consolidation, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and addressing internal competition issues. The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.24% and the ChiNext Index falling by 1.17% over the past five trading days [2][3] - Fixed asset investment in December 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening trend in investment. Meanwhile, retail sales growth also slowed down due to policy withdrawal and high base effects. Overall, the economic growth rate for 2025 is expected to show a pattern of high first and low second half, with a successful completion of the annual target [2][3] - The government is focusing on strengthening domestic circulation and addressing supply-demand imbalances. A new strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 is being developed, alongside measures to improve capacity exit mechanisms and control "involution" competition [3] Industry Research - The computer industry is experiencing a downturn, with the sector declining by 7.27% from January 15 to January 21. Most sub-sectors within the computer industry also saw declines, with IT services dropping by 9.54% [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating breakthroughs in key technologies such as training chips and heterogeneous computing power, which is expected to speed up the development of the domestic computing power industry. Domestic cloud computing companies are anticipated to see a rebound in capital expenditure [6][8] - AI applications are expanding, with Alibaba's Qianwen App integrating various services within its ecosystem, indicating a strong potential for AI commercial applications. The report suggests focusing on leading companies that demonstrate strong capabilities in AI technology implementation and scene adaptation [6][8]

Group 1 - The core initiative "Guangdong Goods Going Global" aims to boost local consumption and showcase Guangdong's manufacturing capabilities through a series of promotional events [1][2] - The campaign includes 12 events in the first quarter, focusing on key categories such as home appliances, mobile phones, clothing, food, and beauty products, demonstrating a strong organizational effort and marketing intensity [1][3] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance domestic demand, with consumer spending projected to contribute 44.5% to GDP growth in 2024, highlighting the need for increased consumption [2] Group 2 - Guangdong's manufacturing sector is well-positioned to meet evolving consumer demands, with a diverse range of products from traditional industries to emerging sectors like smart appliances and electric vehicles [3][4] - The changing consumer landscape emphasizes emotional value and experiential marketing, requiring innovative approaches to engage modern consumers effectively [4][5] - The campaign not only aims to increase sales but also encourages traditional manufacturers to adopt new marketing strategies and upgrade their products, facilitating a shift from "workshop thinking" to "user thinking" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 93.6 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds aims to support equipment upgrades across various key sectors, facilitating approximately 4,500 projects and driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan, thereby implementing strategies to expand domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Impact - The funds will be directed towards critical areas such as industrial manufacturing, energy, education, healthcare, and the replacement of old residential elevators, addressing both economic development and public welfare needs [1][3]. - Since the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2024, the special bonds have supported around 8,400 equipment upgrade projects, leading to over 1 trillion yuan in total investment and an 11.8% year-on-year increase in equipment purchasing investment [2][3]. - The program has also stimulated consumer activity, with over 360 million people applying for subsidies related to the replacement of consumer goods, resulting in sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and contributing 0.6 percentage points to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Management - The 93.6 billion yuan will be allocated directly to local governments to support the scrapping and upgrading of old operational vehicles, new energy city buses, and outdated agricultural machinery, marking a significant step in enhancing growth and improving public welfare [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to optimize the support scope and subsidy standards of the "Two New" policy, enhancing the accuracy and effectiveness of the funding allocation [3]. - The government aims to leverage the 93.6 billion yuan to stimulate over 460 billion yuan in total investment, showcasing the effectiveness of government investment in mobilizing social capital and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [3].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with major indices fluctuating and trading volume declining from high levels [1][8] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and also showing month-on-month growth [4][13] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][13] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to reduced domestic tax rebates [4][13] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, while JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4%, indicating robust external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][16] - ASEAN remains China's largest export destination [4][16] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a cooling phase after a period of heightened enthusiasm, with a rapid decline in trading volume and financing levels [8][18] - Factors supporting the market include favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB [8][18] - The spring rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, enhancing market risk appetite [8][18] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market due to the rapid accumulation of risks from strong momentum [8][18] - The market's trading heat is quickly diminishing, and short-term thematic trends may enter a consolidation phase [8][18] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [9][19] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [9][19] - Defensive dividend sectors may enter an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [10][20] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the credit of the dollar remains intact [10][20] - The trend of long-term capital inflow into the Chinese equity market is expected to strengthen due to regulatory policies promoting passive investment products [10][20] - The increase in equity market profitability is likely to encourage residents to allocate more of their excess deposits into the stock market [10][20] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, a short-term observation period is recommended, with attention to potential fund allocation in response to worsening market sentiment [22] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to continue driving performance [22] - The market should monitor the stabilization of AI applications and aerospace sectors for potential investment opportunities [22]

菏泽农商银行以"邻里节"为纽带，将金融服务深度融入社区生活，既解决了居民消费"最后一公里"难题，又为商户拓宽了经营渠道，形成"场景搭建—信 贷赋能—消费增长"的良性循环，为区域消费市场注入持久活力。 (通讯员赵哲张攀) 在各小区活动现场，惠民集市烟火气十足，鲁花集团、欧诺口腔等商户带来让利优惠，爱心义剪、健康驿站、公益磨刀等便民服务同步开展，趣味互动环 节聚集超高人气，有效带动即时消费。针对居民大额消费需求，菏泽农商银行推出手续简便、利率优惠的专属消费贷款，累计投放各类消费贷款52.5亿 元。精准助力家电换新、家居装修等消费场景，积极对接地方政务平台、民生消费平台，将金融服务嵌入民生及消费场景，带动合作商户客流量与销售额 显著增长。 菏泽农商银行开展以"美好生活季，邻里好时光"邻里节，"采撷甜蜜，悦享生活"采摘季为主题的异业联盟活动，构建"金融+政务+民生"多元联动模式，打 造"暖心集市+特色活动+便民服务+反诈宣传"特色服务品牌，筛选家政服务、生鲜商超、美食餐饮、家居家电等领域优质商户，让居民在家门口享受"一 站式"消费服务。截至目前，累计开展邻里节活动场次193次，参与人数达3.5万人，合作商户163家， ...

Group 1: Aerospace Industry Developments - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch recovery test platform is under construction in Yantai, Shandong, with plans to complete it by February 5, marking the first offshore launch recovery test for liquid rockets in the country [1] - Three commercial aerospace companies, Tianbing Technology, Xinghe Power, and Xingti Glory, have updated their IPO counseling progress, indicating ongoing interest and activity in the commercial aerospace sector [2] - Aerospace Yuxing completed nearly 600 million yuan in D-round financing, with funds aimed at developing satellite internet ground infrastructure and global aerospace ground facilities [3] Group 2: Robotics and AI Innovations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to release guidelines for the standardization of humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, aiming to enhance product quality and safety while promoting innovation in the sector [4] - OpenAI announced plans to expand its AI infrastructure to 10 gigawatts by 2029, with a commitment to cover energy costs for its "Gateway" project, ensuring that operations do not increase electricity prices [9] Group 3: Telecommunications and Technology - The second phase of 6G technology testing has commenced, following the completion of the first phase, with over 300 key technologies developed, indicating significant progress in telecommunications [5] - Zhipu reported a temporary limitation on the sale of its GLM Coding Plan due to a surge in user demand, highlighting the increasing need for computational resources in AI applications [10] Group 4: Financial Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management predicts that opportunities in the A-share market will outweigh risks in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, lithium battery supply chains, and financial services [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF exceeded 15 billion yuan, marking the highest volume in nearly a decade, reflecting increased investor activity [11]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao's Laoshan District is implementing a comprehensive strategy to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on creating a robust consumption system that integrates policy guidance, scenario-driven initiatives, and innovation empowerment [1] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement Strategies - The district has established a dedicated task force to coordinate efforts across various sectors, including culture, tourism, construction, and education, to break down barriers and enhance policy collaboration [1] - Initiatives include the promotion of high-quality cultural and tourism events, such as the Qingdao International Beer Festival and various sports competitions, to stimulate consumption and enhance regional economic development [2][3] - The district aims to create a unique consumption ecosystem by integrating dining, accommodation, and cultural activities, while also enhancing the quality of life through improved services in childcare and elderly care [2] Group 2: Seasonal and Thematic Consumption Activities - The "乐购崂山·悦享生活" theme has led to over 100 promotional events in collaboration with major supermarkets, establishing a benchmark for consumption upgrades in Qingdao [4] - Seasonal activities are designed to attract consumers year-round, with events like the "2025 Warm Winter Laoshans Food Festival" and "Laoshan Craft Beer Summer" drawing significant crowds and media attention [4] - The district is focusing on creating a vibrant shopping environment by developing unique commercial streets and enhancing the overall consumer experience [5][6] Group 3: Rural and Agricultural Consumption Development - Laoshan District is cultivating rural consumption scenarios by establishing demonstration points and hosting events like the Laoshan Tea Festival to promote local agricultural products [3] - The integration of agriculture with culture and tourism is aimed at increasing the visibility and impact of local products, thereby enhancing the overall consumer experience [3] Group 4: Internationalization and Digital Empowerment - The district is working towards international standards in consumer environments, including multilingual signage and international payment options, to attract a global audience [6] - Digital initiatives are being implemented to enhance the visibility of local brands and improve the overall shopping experience, aligning with international best practices [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape in 2026 is characterized by a clear trend towards allocating quality equity assets, driven by China's economic transition towards high-quality development and structural transformation [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The upcoming "Investment Good Season" strategy summit by Harvest Fund on January 23 will feature discussions with economists, investment professionals, and industry leaders to explore wealth creation and market opportunities [1][2] - The summit will address asset allocation strategies, including equity, fixed income, and multi-asset approaches, emphasizing the importance of a stable foundation and quality equity allocation in uncertain times [2] - Key speakers at the summit include senior executives from Harvest Fund who will share insights on strategy research, ETF investments, and multi-strategy approaches [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Investment - The AI sector is highlighted as a key focus for investment, with advancements in large model capabilities and increased capital expenditure driving discussions about the commercialization of AI applications [3] - A roundtable discussion will feature experts from Harvest Fund discussing the global AI industry's development and the implications of potential market bubbles [3] Group 3: Economic Policies and Consumer Demand - The optimization of supply and demand structures is expected to create new opportunities, with "de-involution" policies and "expanding domestic demand" being prioritized in economic strategies [4] - Experts from Harvest Fund will engage in dialogues about potential beneficiaries and investment rhythms in the context of macroeconomic trends [4][5] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Investment Insights - The summit will also focus on consumer investment trends, with discussions on various topics such as resource investments and dividend strategies, appealing to the interests of younger investors [6] - Insights will be shared on specific consumer trends, including the resurgence of tangible lifestyle investments and the growing popularity of gold and rare metals [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Asset Management's China Equity Team believes that the opportunities in A-shares will outweigh risks by 2026, with a structural market trend expected to continue [1] - Key investment directions include: 1. Consumer electronics, which are still in an innovation cycle, with leading companies' valuations at relatively low levels, presenting medium to long-term allocation value 2. The lithium battery industry chain, supported by trade-in subsidy policies, is expected to see continued growth in domestic electric vehicle demand 3. The large financial sector, where if the equity market maintains a slow bull trend, the fundamentals of non-bank financials may remain robust 4. Emerging sub-sectors worth continuous tracking, aligned with domestic demand expansion policies [1] Group 2 - Global economic growth is expected to slow, but with gradually declining interest rates, the tightening pace of monetary policy in major developed markets is likely to ease, providing support to the economy in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - For China, reduced external uncertainties, a friendly policy environment, and a recovery in corporate earnings are expected to accelerate the profit recovery process for industrial enterprises [1] - In terms of asset allocation, improving corporate earnings are likely to support global equity market performance, but investors should lower return expectations and diversify to mitigate risks amid high valuations and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - A-shares are expected to become more attractive, with a focus on high-prosperity core assets, overseas-related sectors, and industries with improved supply-demand dynamics [2]