Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant changes in the investment strategies of Ruiyuan Fund's star fund managers, with notable adjustments in stock holdings and performance metrics for the fourth quarter of 2025. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund experienced a net redemption of 136.2 million shares, marking the second-highest redemption in its history, with total net assets decreasing from 23.629 billion yuan to 21.087 billion yuan [3][4] - The fund's stock allocation increased slightly from 89.93% to 90.48%, while the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the fund's net value decreased from 27.92% to 20.14% [3][4] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund's stock allocation reached a three-year high of 90.66%, with a slight increase in the proportion of Hong Kong stocks to 41.99% [10] Group 2: Stock Holdings and Changes - The top ten holdings of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund included New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Ningde Times, with New Yisheng seeing a 22.73% reduction in holdings [4][5] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund saw significant changes, with the re-entry of Midea Group into the top ten holdings and reductions in holdings of companies like Lixun Precision and China Ping An [10][12] - The fund managers noted a shift in focus towards sectors like photovoltaic and semiconductor high-end equipment manufacturing, while reducing exposure to companies with weak fundamentals [6][10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The fund managers expressed optimism about the market, anticipating that the return on equity assets will remain attractive compared to other asset classes, with potential returns exceeding 10% for leading companies [11][13] - They plan to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, particularly those expanding overseas, as this is expected to drive future growth [13][14] - The report indicates a structural market environment with limited risks of significant downturns, while opportunities for excess returns remain [8][13]

政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产减值导致利润下滑，通过业绩预告释放压力，同时引导市场 正视房企在行业调整阶段的业绩波动。 积极的政策氛围或带动楼市一季度迎来成色较高的"小阳春"。 推荐基本面优质的头部改善性房企，如绿城中国、建发国际集团、中国金茂、华润置地、滨江集团等；建议关注 估值受房价影响弹性大的标的，如新世界发展、新城控股等。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 ...

Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Global market risk appetite has weakened, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill in the US. Geopolitical risks, such as the issue of Greenland acquisition, are the main drivers of market fluctuations, while the fundamentals and changes in interest - rate cut expectations remain relatively stable [2][15]. - In the stock market, there is a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks, and the market rotation speed has accelerated. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and attention should be focused on the technological industry trends and the intensity of the Two Sessions' policies [3][23]. - In the commodity market, different commodities show different trends. For example, gold is strong, while some metals and agricultural products are under pressure. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy regulations, and geopolitical risks [4][11][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Poland's central bank plans to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, aiming to rank among the top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves globally. A Danish pension fund will exit the US Treasury market. Gold has risen by about 2% and reached a new high. The market's risk aversion has increased, and the distrust of the US dollar has grown, which supports the price of gold. The silver is weaker than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that if the Supreme Court restricts the federal government's tariff policy, he can use other means. His intention regarding Greenland has not changed, which has led to a weakening of global market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [12][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Netflix's Q4 performance was excellent, but its Q1 guidance was disappointing. Geopolitical risks have continued to escalate during the long weekend, and the trade dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland has intensified, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The performance of the stock market has been suppressed, and the three major US stock indexes have fallen by more than 2%. It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate at a high level during the earnings season [17][19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged. The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand. The stock market continued to adjust, with a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 1 - month LPR has remained stable for eight consecutive months. The central bank conducted a 324 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan on the same day. The stock market's upward momentum is weak, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased. The short - term rebound of treasury bond futures is expected to continue, but the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish. It is recommended to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25][26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market has shown mixed trends. Coke producers have initiated the first round of price increases, which are still in the negotiation stage. The supply is relatively stable, while the downstream steel and coke enterprises are actively restocking. The inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short term, the spot price is supported by the downstream restocking sentiment, but the upward momentum of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Two departments have issued measures to support urban renewal. A steel group has completed a strategic acquisition to build a high - end special - steel production base. Steel prices have continued to decline, and the fundamentals of finished products have faced increasing pressure in January. The seasonal decline in demand is expected to be more obvious, and the export has also weakened marginally. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy before the Spring Festival and hedge inventory when the price rebounds [30][31][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 145% compared to the same period last year. The prices of domestic and foreign futures have remained weak. Although the soybean imports in the first quarter are expected to be at a low level, the current inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America [33][34][36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. The palm oil price is expected to be supported in the short term due to its cost - effectiveness and the active purchasing attitude of countries such as India. However, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 8800 - 8900 yuan level [38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 39% compared to the average daily exports in January of the previous year. India may raise the minimum selling price of sugar. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in December 2025 decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure during the peak production period, and the demand during the pre - Spring Festival stocking period is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is limited [39][40][42]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Ghana is promoting the construction of its first large - scale alumina refinery. The inventory of alumina enterprises has increased, and the futures price is under pressure [43]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In December 2025, China's lithium ore imports increased by 8.1% month - on - month, and lithium carbonate imports decreased by 14% year - on - year. The price of lithium carbonate has reached the daily limit, which is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and demand support. In the short term, it may continue to reduce inventory. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the position and volatility stabilize [44][45][46]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Six departments have issued a management method for the recycling of new - energy vehicle waste power batteries. The prices of domestic and foreign lead have oscillated downward. The macro - level disturbances have increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The social inventory is expected to continue to rise, which will suppress the lead price. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [47][48][49]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In December 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while zinc concentrate imports decreased month - on - month. The zinc price has oscillated weakly, affected by macro - level disturbances. The fundamentals of LME zinc have weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be vigilant against geopolitical risks [50][51][53]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A company has made progress in high - speed copper cable business. Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. China's scrap - copper imports in December 2025 increased month - on - month. The short - term macro - level negative factors have relatively increased, and the global visible inventory has risen, which will suppress the copper price. It is expected that the copper price will change from a strong rise to a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The discount of LME tin has reached 108.01 US dollars per ton. The inventories of both the SHFE and LME have increased significantly. The processing fees of smelters have risen, and the demand remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [58]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Norway's oil production in December was 1.962 million barrels per day. The oil price has oscillated and rebounded, supported by concerns about geopolitical uncertainties. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [59][60]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A company's PP devices have stopped for maintenance. An extreme cold wave warning has been issued in the US, which has raised concerns about the short - term supply and exports of LPG. The outer - market price is expected to be strong in the near term, and the inner - market price may follow passively [61][62]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 20, the closing price of CEA was 73 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous day. After the 2024 compliance period, the market trading activity has cooled down significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to buy on dips if there is demand [62][63]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene has decreased month - on - month, but the LLDPE inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. The LLDPE price has a large callback space, and the 05 - contract price is expected to decline to the 6550 - 6600 yuan level [64][66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market negotiation was light in the afternoon. The PTA futures price has increased with increased positions. The short - term upward space is limited due to factors such as the relatively abundant supply of PX and the weak speculative demand of downstream industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [67][68][69].

机构认为，"春季躁动"行情面临短期压力位考验。 【财经日历】 IEA公布月度原油市场报告 2026年中国会展经济国际合作论坛(武汉,1/21-1/23) 财报发布：奈飞、强生 ►►在国新办1月20日举行的新闻发布会上，财政部相关负责人表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，确保总体支出力 度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 为更大力度激发民间投资，促进居民消费，财政部等多部门推出财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通过国家融资担 保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实施，引导银行新增投放5000亿元中小微企业民间投资贷款。首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，从今年1月1日起， 向中小微民营企业发放的符合条件的固定资产贷款，每年贴息1.5个百分点，最长贴息2年，单户贷款额度上限5000万元，单户最多可享受贴息150万元，覆 盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔相关领域。此外，还优化实施了服务业经营主体贷款贴息、 个人消费贷款财政贴息、设备更新贷款财政贴息等政策。 ►►财政部等六部门发布公告，为社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gradual reduction of deposit rates is leading to a significant maturity of time deposits accumulated by households and enterprises, with a notable increase in the scale of maturing deposits expected in 2026, which will impact asset pricing significantly [1][20]. Group 1: Scale - The estimated scale of maturing medium- and long-term deposits for households and enterprises in 2026 is projected to reach 58.3 trillion, an increase of 5.6 trillion compared to 2025, with household deposits alone expected to reach 37.9 trillion, marking a 4.3 trillion increase and the highest level in five years [9][24]. - The proportion of time deposits in the total deposits of households and enterprises has increased from 65% in 2021 to 73% in 2024, indicating a clear trend towards longer deposit durations [22][30]. Group 2: Timing - The majority of maturing time deposits in 2026 will occur in the first quarter, accounting for 54% of the total, with over 60% of household time deposits maturing in this period [20][31]. - The estimated quarterly distribution of maturing deposits shows that 60.7% of household deposits will mature in the first quarter, highlighting a concentrated timing effect [30][31]. Group 3: Impact - The repricing of maturing time deposits is expected to alleviate pressure on bank interest margins, potentially reducing banks' liability costs by approximately 550 billion and lowering interest rates by 31 basis points [2][31]. - However, the reallocation of maturing deposits may disrupt the stability of bank liabilities, necessitating close monitoring of the restructuring of deposits [15][31]. Group 4: Asset Allocation - The large-scale maturity of household deposits in 2026 is anticipated to bring incremental funds to the equity market, positively impacting stock prices, particularly given the concentration of maturing deposits in the first quarter, which may lead to an unexpected "spring rally" in the market [16][32]. - The actual impact on the bond market remains to be observed, with potential changes in purchasing power and yield spreads depending on the reallocation of funds from deposits [17][33].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The maturity scale of long-term deposits for residents and enterprises in 2026 is estimated at CNY 58.3 trillion, an increase of CNY 5.6 trillion compared to 2025[1] - Among this, the maturity scale for the resident sector is CNY 37.9 trillion, up CNY 4.3 trillion from 2025, marking the highest level in five years[3] - In 2026, 54% of the total deposits will mature in the first quarter, with over 60% of resident deposits maturing in the same period[5] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The re-pricing of maturing deposits is expected to reduce banks' liability costs by approximately CNY 550 billion, leading to a 31 basis point decrease in interest rates paid by banks[6] - However, the potential "deposit migration" could disrupt the stability of banks' liabilities, necessitating close monitoring of the reallocation of deposits[6] Group 3: Asset Market Implications - The large-scale maturity of deposits is likely to bring incremental funds to the equity market, potentially benefiting the stock market, especially during the first quarter[7] - The impact on the bond market remains uncertain, as the actual allocation of funds will depend on the speed of credit decline and the relative speed of deposit outflows[8]

Group 1 - The report highlights the "Spring Excitement" in the snack sector, indicating a historical high relative win rate of 70% for the food and beverage sector in the 40 days leading up to the Spring Festival [7][16] - The report emphasizes that the "Spring Excitement" is not solely dependent on the annual beta of the food and beverage sector, as structural opportunities still exist despite a long-term adjustment period since 2021 [7][16] - Key catalysts for the upcoming Spring Festival include concentrated demand for gifts and gatherings, which leads to more planned channel stocking, creating a positive feedback loop of expectations and validations [7][16][28] Group 2 - In December, the food and beverage sector underperformed the market by 7.5 percentage points, with a decline of 5.2%, ranking last among 31 primary industries [7][61] - The report notes a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with snacks and soft drinks showing gains while liquor and beer experienced declines [7][61][64] - The absolute and relative valuations of the food and beverage sector are at their lowest since 2010, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][61][64] Group 3 - The report tracks the recovery of consumer confidence, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales in December, showing improvement from the previous month [7][63] - It highlights that the liquor sector is facing weak demand and declining prices, with the price adjustments for premium liquor nearing levels seen between 2011 and 2015 [7][63][64] - The report identifies structural differentiation in costs, with some packaging materials and agricultural products experiencing price increases [7][63][64] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include a focus on liquor stocks that have undergone a four-year adjustment period, with potential for a "valuation + performance" double bottom [7][64] - For consumer goods, the report anticipates a moderate increase in industry prices in 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Anjuke Foods, Qianhe Flavor, and Eastroc Beverage [7][64] - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will provide a favorable environment for growth narratives, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and certain chain formats [7][64]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a low opening and a subsequent decline to 4080 points, followed by a V-shaped recovery back to 4100 points, indicating strong market resilience in digesting the "cooling" effects [1] - There are still opportunities for bullish investments, with funds shifting towards sectors with less resistance such as electric power, consumer goods, real estate, and transportation [1] - Recent outflows from broad-based ETFs, including the CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market, totaled over 200 billion yuan in the past week, reflecting a trend of capital withdrawal from these instruments [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Fund noted that the recent cooling of speculative market sentiment may not be negative, as it provides an opportunity for hesitant investors to enter the market, thus supporting the bottom and promoting sustained market performance [2] - During the dense pre-disclosure period of annual reports in late January, the market sentiment is expected to be cautious, and investors are advised to accumulate positions in large-cap value and growth styles, such as the CSI 300 ETF and the ChiNext 50 ETF, which have the lowest management fee rates in the market at 0.15% per year [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a "contraction" in commodity markets, with a focus on the differentiated performance of long-end bonds in the debt market [3][4] - Recent macro data has shown positive trends, with social financing and export figures exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [3][4] - The report notes a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, reaching the highest monthly value since 2014, driven by strong export growth and expectations of RMB appreciation [3][4] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices have cooled down recently, with a notable "contraction" in market activity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4] - The South China Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while energy, black metals, and agricultural products have shown weaker performance [3][4] - The report identifies a divergence in the performance of different metal categories, with precious metals outperforming non-ferrous and black metals [4] Debt Market Insights - The debt market is currently in a relatively balanced range, with 30-year government bond yields around 2.3% and 10-year yields returning to the central bank's target range of approximately 1.85% [4][5] - There is limited room for further declines in short-term bond yields, as market participants shift from a bearish to a more neutral stance [5] - The report suggests that the recent buying activity from major banks, particularly in the 7-10 year maturity range, is providing crucial support for current interest rates [5] Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on high-odds, trading-oriented small metals and silver if risk preferences shift, while suggesting a focus on high-probability copper and aluminum if conditions remain stable [4][5] - The performance of perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds is highlighted as a key area to watch, with strong buying interest from specific investor segments [6]

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of the convertible bond market, highlighting weekly changes in indices such as the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and CSI Convertible Bond Index, with weekly returns of 1.124%, 0.872%, and 1.075%, respectively[7] - The convertible bond market's trading volume and value for the week were 268,485.48 million units and 52,260,646.36 million yuan, showing week-over-week increases of 7.33% and 10.32%, respectively[7] - The median conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market was approximately 33.06%, with an arithmetic average of 45.21%, reflecting slight fluctuations compared to the previous week[12] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of convertible bond prices, categorizing them into ranges such as below 100, 100-110, 110-120, and so on, with the majority (47.12%) priced above 140[32] - The top five performing convertible bonds for the week were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Aohong Convertible Bond, Shuangle Convertible Bond, Huiche Convertible Bond, and Huayi Convertible Bond, with weekly returns of 98.89%, 57.30%, 57.30%, 35.34%, and 24.20%, respectively[18][19] - The bottom five performing convertible bonds for the week were Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Tianjian Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Huggong Convertible Bond, and Shentong Convertible Bond, with weekly returns of -25.23%, -19.41%, -16.67%, -12.10%, and -11.45%, respectively[18][19] - The report tracks convertible bond clauses, noting that 110 bonds triggered downward revision clauses, and six bonds were at risk of triggering conditional redemption clauses, including Tianjian Convertible Bond, Sailong Convertible Bond, Shentong Convertible Bond, Zhubang Convertible Bond, Beigang Convertible Bond, and Huazheng Convertible Bond[39]