多家券商指出，2026年春季躁动的"抢跑"特征比往年更明显。 广发证券策略首席刘晨明分析，春季行情通常出现在春节至两会期间，平均持续20个交易 日，但2026年因市场学习效应深化，资金可能提前布局。 东吴证券则观察到，12月重要会议（如中央经济工作会议）后，政策预期升温，叠加2026年春节较晚，机构为抢占先机，可能将布局窗口前置至12月中旬。 这种"抢跑"直接反映在资金流向：近期沪深300ETF获大幅净申购，部分科技主题ETF份额创历史新高。 2025年12月，A股市场尚未正式进入2026年，但"春季躁动"的号角已被机构资金吹响。 历史数据显示，近10年春季行情平均涨幅达6?5%，但2026年却可能 打破常规——因春节时间偏晚、机构"抢跑"博弈加剧，本轮行情或提前至12月中下旬启动，甚至出现"跨年"与"春季"双浪叠加的罕见现象。过去7年春季行 情中，有4年指数表现平淡，但结构性机会爆发：如2025年人形机器人板块逆市暴涨29%，2024年"中特估"指数上涨9%，印证了"轻指数、重个股"才是春季 躁动的核心密码。 银河证券首席杨超特别强调，"反内卷"政策将推动制造业盈利修复，资源品（如铜、铝）和传统化工可能迎来 ...

简单说，2025年涨的是"预期"和"估值"，2026年要看"业绩"和"盈利"能不能接得上棒。全年很可能呈现 出 "指数温和震荡向上，但行业内部激烈分化"的鲜明特征。普涨行情难了，抓对结构才是赚钱的关 键。 为什么敢这么判断？核心支撑在于企业赚钱能力的真实改善。市场普遍预计，2026年全部A股上市公司 的盈利增速有望回升到5%-8%的水平。这背后有两个强大引擎：一是全球制造业周期可能复苏，加上 国内政策推动工业品价格走出低谷；二是像人工智能、商业航天这些折腾了好几年的新兴产业，终于要 进入关键的业绩兑现期了，故事要开始见真章了。 各位股民朋友们，2025年的行情正式画上句号，你们是赚是亏？是踏空还是满仓？先来看一组震撼的数 据，感受一下什么叫"史诗级"的活跃市场：全年成交额突破了420万亿元，平均下来，每天都有超过1.7 万亿的真金白银在股市里翻滚博弈！ 指数上，上证指数全年上涨18.41%，并且在一年内6次冲上了4000点大关，虽然年末收在3968.84点，但 那股冲击的势头大家都感受到了。更猛的是创业板代表的成长方向，创业板指全年暴涨49.57%，几乎 涨了一半！行业更是冰火两重天：有色金属板块一骑绝尘，暴 ...

近期，券商陆续发布1月策略报告，并同步推出1月券商金股。从各大券商的观点来看，大家总体看好 2026年的行情，提示积极布局春季躁动。从板块布局来看，被各大券商提及较多的是科技、消费、周期 复苏和资源板块。券商金股方面，目前有11家券商合计发布了超100多只1月金股，涵盖25个申万行业。 其中，科技股集中营的电子行业，获推荐个股数量最多，达到11只；周期行业的有色金属行业有8只个 股获得推荐；制造行业的机械设备、电力设备行业分别有7只和5只个股。从获推荐次数来看，紫金矿 业、中际旭创、中国中免、中国太保等11只个股获得2家以上券商推荐。紫金矿业、中际旭创最受青 睐，均获得4家券商推荐。以年度涨跌幅、估值统计，有26只金股2025年涨幅低于50%且滚动市盈率低 于30倍。其中，山东路桥、渝农商行、齐鲁银行、中国太保、工商银行、中材国际市盈率较低，均低于 10倍；山东出版、长城汽车、中国广核、海尔智家、中国石化、石头科技2025年股价均收跌。（证券时 报） ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry's investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bullish on the equity market during the "Spring Rally". With the expected strengthening of underlying stocks and seasonal effects, there is a slight room for convertible bond valuations to increase. When selecting bonds, focus on the performance elasticity of the underlying stocks. For near - maturity convertible bonds, consider participating in the underlying stocks [27]. - In the stock market, in December 2025, the risk appetite was high. Looking ahead, the RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and with the end of the year - end ranking assessment of financial institutions, the "Spring Rally" is expected to gradually kick off. In January, if the market adjusts during the intensive performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips and focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - In the convertible bond market, in December 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high since July 2015. Although the share of convertible bond ETFs continued to decline, the market premium rate increased. In the future, due to seasonal effects, some institutional investors may gradually increase their positions in January, and convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement [27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 December Convertible Bond Market Review - **Stock and Bond Market Review**: In December, the equity market fluctuated upwards, and the bond market generally fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly 10 consecutive trading days in the middle and late - December, closing at 3963.68 on December 26, with a monthly increase of 1.27%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.838% on December 26, up 0.10bp from the beginning of the month, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.223%, up 3.32bp from the beginning of the month [4][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market Review**: The convertible bond market generally rose following the equity market. The premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges increased, but convertible bond ETFs continued to face outflow pressure. Five convertible bonds announced downward revisions, one more than the previous month, and 10 convertible bonds announced forced redemptions, two less than the previous month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 493.2 on December 26, up 2.31% [5][8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as national defense and military industry (+12.25%), communication (+10.55%), and non - bank finance (+8.27%) performed well, while sectors such as media (-4.77%), banks (-3.68%), and coal (-3.62%) declined [8]. 3.2 2026 January Convertible Bond Allocation Strategy - **Stock Market Outlook**: The RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and the "Spring Rally" is expected to start. In January, if the market adjusts during the performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips. Focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: Due to seasonal effects, some institutions may increase their positions in January. Convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement. When selecting bonds, relative - return funds should focus on high - probability sectors with a high - beta underlying stocks, and absolute - return funds should focus on high - odds sectors [27][28]. - **Bond Selection Suggestions**: For relative - return funds, focus on sectors such as lithium - battery materials, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, high - quality auto parts, anti - involution industries, and securities. For absolute - return funds, focus on industry leaders with low valuations, sectors such as pig farming, power, and water supply, and convertible bond debt - to - equity conversion [28]. 3.3 2026 January "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio | Convertible Bond Code | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Balance (Billion Yuan) | Convertible Bond Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Parity (Yuan) | Conversion Premium Rate (%) | Rating | Recommendation Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113043.SH | Caitong Convertible Bond | Caitong Securities | Securities II | 37.99 | 133.52 | 109.71 | 21.70 | AAA | The securities sector will see a double - hit of valuation and profit in a bull market [30]. | | 123254.SZ | EVE Convertible Bond | EVE Energy | Battery | 49.98 | 167.64 | 134.65 | 24.51 | AA+ | The demand for energy storage is strong, and the shipment volume in the third quarter increased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [30]. | | 113695.SH | Huachen Convertible Bond | Jiangsu Huachen | Power Grid Equipment | 4.60 | 160.16 | 122.10 | 31.17 | A+ | The company's new production capacity is put into operation just as the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly [30]. | | 113634.SH | Proya Convertible Bond | Proya | Cosmetics | 7.51 | 125.13 | 70.36 | 77.83 | AA | As a domestic beauty leader, its brand and product strength are outstanding, and its valuation at a historical low is expected to be restored [30]. | | 113616.SH | Will Semiconductor Convertible Bond | Will Semiconductor | Semiconductor | 24.32 | 124.07 | 78.35 | 58.36 | AA+ | The company is accelerating its introduction into intelligent driving and emerging markets and has launched new mobile phone products with strong competitiveness [30]. | | 118040.SH | Hongwei Convertible Bond | Hongwei Technology | Semiconductor | 4.30 | 149.72 | 116.17 | 28.88 | A | Power semiconductors benefit from the growth of power supply and energy storage demand [30]. | | 113674.SH | Huashe Convertible Bond | Huashe Group | Engineering Consulting Service II | 4.00 | 129.29 | 89.47 | 44.51 | AA | As a leader in infrastructure design, its main business is stabilizing, and intelligent design and low - altitude economy provide growth points [30]. | | 123222.SZ | Bojun Convertible Bond | Bojun Technology | Auto Parts | 2.44 | 224.63 | 194.72 | 15.36 | A+ | The growth of customer sales and the increase in ASP per vehicle drive up revenue and profit [30]. | | 113666.SH | Aima Convertible Bond | Aima Technology | Motorcycle and Others | 19.99 | 125.11 | 79.63 | 57.12 | AA | The new national standard may promote the market share of the two - wheeled vehicle leader [30]. | | 123247.SZ | Wankai Convertible Bond | Wankai New Materials | Plastics | 19.64 | 172.30 | 150.18 | 14.73 | AA | Under the "anti - involution" of bottle chips, the processing fee is expected to stabilize, and the company is entering the rPET blue - ocean market [30]. |

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing macro governance effectiveness and maintaining a positive policy tone, with a combination of more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy expected to continue [4][9] - The focus is on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing investment, with recent policy adjustments such as the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing and a reduction in the value-added tax rate for second-hand home sales [4][9] - The report highlights the potential for a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of the coming year, as recent U.S. GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by a rebound in personal consumption [10] Key Stock Recommendations - **Jinfa Technology (金发科技, 600143.SH)**: Positioned to transition from a comprehensive plastic leader to a high-end chemical materials platform, benefiting from strong demand in emerging industries [11][14] - **Hengli Petrochemical (恒力石化, 600346.SH)**: As a leading private refining enterprise, it is expected to benefit from a new cycle of refining prosperity due to its extensive production capacity and diversified product offerings [11][14] - **Satellite Chemical (卫星化学, 002648.SZ)**: Anticipated to enter a new growth phase with improved profitability in aromatics and polyester chains, supported by its cost control and market position [11][14] - **Huidi Technology (汇得科技, 603192.SH)**: Expected to maintain high-quality growth due to strong demand for polyurethane materials and a favorable cost environment [11][14] - **Aikodi (爱柯迪, 600933.SH)**: Positioned to benefit from the recovery of its robotics segment and potential contracts with Tesla, enhancing its growth prospects [11][14] - **TeBao Bio (特宝生物, 688278.SH)**: Anticipated to see significant growth driven by its core product and expanding R&D pipeline [11][14] - **New Dairy (新乳业, 002946.SZ)**: Expected to improve profitability through product innovation and a focus on low-temperature products [11][14] - **Zhongke Lanyun (中科蓝讯, 688332.SH)**: Positioned to benefit from AI-driven growth in the electronics sector, with a comprehensive product line [11][14] - **Hengxuan Technology (恒玄科技, 688608.SH)**: Focused on high-end SOC chips and AIOT applications, with strong competitive positioning [11][14] - **Jereh Group (杰瑞股份, 002353.SZ)**: Expected to see robust growth supported by its diversified business and significant orders in the natural gas sector [11][14] ETF Recommendations - **Southern CSI 1000 ETF (南方中证 1000ETF, 512100.OF)**: Notable growth of 29.27% year-to-date, tracking the CSI 1000 Index [15] - **E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (易方达中证人工智能主题, 159819.OF)**: Strong performance with a 70.29% increase year-to-date [15] - **Chemical ETF (化工 ETF, 159870.OF)**: Gained 43.01% year-to-date, reflecting the performance of the chemical industry [15] - **Huatai-PB CSI Major Consumption ETF (汇添富中证主要消费 ETF, 159928.OF)**: Slight decline of 2.40% year-to-date [15] - **Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (南方中证申万有色金属 ETF, 512400.OF)**: Significant growth of 98.26% year-to-date [15]

Core Insights - The A-share market closed 2025 with a 0.09% increase on the last trading day, marking an 18.41% annual rise, the highest in a decade [5] - Over the past six months, the average net value growth rate of equity public wealth management products was 17.65%, with 14 out of 37 products exceeding 20% growth [5] - The top 10 wealth management products had an average net value growth rate of 33.59%, with industry-themed products leading the gains [6] Group 1: Product Performance - The top-performing product was "阳光红新能源主题A" from 光大理财, with a net value growth rate of 64.01% [3] - "华夏理财长开理财产品4号(新型储能指数)" achieved a growth rate of 43.12% [3] - The products from 华夏理财 dominated the list, with three products making it to the top ten [5] Group 2: Market Trends - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend over the last six months, with the创业板指 leading with over 52% growth [5] - Analysts predict a "cross-year" and "spring" market rally, with expectations of increased investment activity and liquidity in early 2026 [7][8] - Historical patterns suggest that the "spring rally" typically begins in late November or early December and lasts until around February [7]

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近几年 ， 大家对经济的体感很不好 ， 但GDP依然保持较高的增速 。 这让很多人都质疑GDP的真实性 。 尽管利润有20万 ， 但你还垫付了50万 款项 ， 现金流量表上是负数 。 所以你不但不会扩大消费 ， 反而会勒紧裤腰带过年 。 GDP跟人们的体感就是这样关系 。 我们确实做出了较快的GDP增速 ， 但现金没有收到 。 现金去哪里了呢 ？ 01 不用质疑 ， GDP是真的 ， 体感不好也是真的 。 问题出在哪里呢 ？ 其中一个重要原因就是 账期 ！ 这就好比你今年卖了100万的货 ， 利润是20万 ， 但只收到客户50万的货款 。 问题来了 ， 临近春节 ， 你会愿意消费吗 ？ 钱在哪里 ？ 钱卡在了三个地方 。 第一 ， 出口企业赚到钱后 ， 有7万亿美元留在海外没有 ...

新华财经北京12月31日电（胡晨曦） 2025年最后一个交易日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指全天震荡微 涨0.09%，录得11连阳；创业板指则震荡下挫。截至今日收盘，沪指报3968.84点，涨幅0.09%，成交额 约8295亿元；深成指报13525.02点，跌幅0.58%，成交额约12157亿元；创业板指报3203.17点，跌幅 1.23%，成交额约5491亿元。 从今日的盘面上看，航天航空、航空机场、教育、互联网服务、计算机设备、文化传媒板块涨幅居前， 医药商业、船舶制造、电池、石油行业、半导体板块跌幅居前。 纵观2025全年，沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关，创下近十年新高，全年收涨18.41%；深证成指 全年收涨29.87%；创业板指全年大涨49.57%；科创50指数全年涨35.92%，北证50指数全年涨38.8%。A 股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年内新增近23万亿元，一举刷新历史纪录。个股同样表现亮眼，胜宏科 技、新易盛、中际旭创等多只科技龙头全年涨幅超过3倍。板块方面，CPO、存储芯片、商业航天、有 色金属等方向领涨。 机构观点 巨丰投顾：周三市场震荡运行，卫星互联网板块涨幅居前。从目前趋势 ...

2025年临近尾声。今年以来，A股市场整体震荡上行，股票ETF备受资金追捧。中国银河证券基金研究 中心数据显示，截至12月30日，12月以来全部股票ETF资金净流入1189.94亿元，2025年以来全部股票 ETF"吸金"更是高达4847.40亿元。 【导读】12月以来，股票ETF资金净流入超1189亿元；2025年以来，股票ETF"吸金"超4847亿元 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 12月30日，沪指全天弱势震荡，全市场股票ETF资金净流入超65亿元。其中，有色金属ETF、券商 ETF、红利ETF等成为"吸金"主力，科创50ETF、上证50ETF等宽基ETF成为"失血"大户。 昨日股票ETF资金净流入超65亿元 12月30日，全市场股票ETF（含跨境ETF）资金净流入65.81亿元。 资金流入前5板块为有色金属（净流入28.7亿元）、中证A500指数（净流入16.6亿元）、黄金（净流入 8.2亿元）、中证1000指数（净流入7.3亿元）、中证500指数（净流入6.6亿元）。 资金流出前5板块为科创板50指数（净流出12.4亿元）、上证50指数（净流出5.3亿元）、通信（净流出 4.3亿元）、人工智能（净流出4.2 ...

从红利低波ETF（512890）十大重仓股表现来看，早盘涨跌互现：中粮糖业盘跌1.34%，南钢股份跌 2.42%，成都银行涨0.06%，大秦铁路跌0.39%，南京银行涨0.00%，兴业银行跌0.05%，农业跌0.39%， 建设银行涨0.65%，中信银行涨0.26%，四川路桥涨0.60%。具体持仓占比如下： | 股票名称 | 持仓市值(元) | 持仓数量 | 相对上期增减 | 占股票市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中根糖业1 | 695.289.225.95 | 43.591.801 | | 3.47% | | 南朝股份 1 | 570.069.953.25 | 108.584.753 | | 2.85% | | 成都银行 | 567.817.870.50 : | 32.916,978 | 12.89% : | 2.83%J | | 大秦铁路 | 538.150.834.85 | 91.366.865 | 13.02% : | 269%J | | 南京银行 | 537,824,837.14 : | 49.206.298 | | 2.69% | | 兴业银行 | 5 ...