智通财经记者 | 刘婷 受美联储降息预期回调、海外政治动荡拖累非美货币表现等因素影响，本周美元指数重返100大关以上。不过，分析人 士认为，美元反转趋势并未确立，中长期看可能仍会步入下行通道。 11月4日，美元指数突破100关口，为8月初以来首次，最高至100.36，比9月中旬的阶段性低点96.2上涨4.3%。截至发 稿，美元指数交投于100附近。 分析人士指出，本轮美元指数上涨主要由三方面因素驱动，首先是市场对美联储降息的预期有所降温。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对智通财经表示，10月底，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在议息会议后称"12月降息并 非板上钉钉"，这一鹰派表态打破了市场此前对降息的线性预期，随后一周内，美联储多位官员均发表对降息的谨慎看 法，导致市场对年内继续降息的预期大幅降温。同时，在非农就业数据缺失的情况下，非官方数据显示私营部门就业人 数增幅超预期，进一步强化了市场对12月可能不降息的预期，成为推动美元走强的关键因素。 北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.75%-4.00%。这是美联储今年第 二次降息。但鲍威尔在当天的新闻发布会上表示，不能 ...

机构观点 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国裁员数创20年来新高，美债收益率走低，12月降息路径仍不明朗，美元 指数震荡收跌；油价弱势震荡运行。基本面上，利空因素逐步被交易，等待下周一MPOB报告发布，关 注累库情况带来的指引。11月产地进入减产季，且生柴政策有炒作反复的预期，对价格有一定支撑。预 计短期棕榈油震荡偏弱运行。 宁证期货：棕榈油在11月有减产预期，一定程度支撑期价；国内方面豆棕价差快速修复，棕榈油性价比 逐渐提升，需求在近期提振较为明显。但近月基本面继续施压，短期内棕榈油空头利润兑现离场，底部 调整。 11月7日，棕榈油期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报8688.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.32%。 【消息面汇总】 截至10月31日当周，国内棕榈油库存为59.28万吨，环比减少2.36%，同比增加17.29%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年11月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期增加5.12%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.32%，产量环比上月同期增加6.80%。 BMI预测2025/26年度全球棕榈油产量将增长1.8%，达到8,010万吨；其中印尼产量将增长3.3 ...

成文日期: 20251105 报告周期:日报 误：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736） 解铜期货日报: 触及 85000 重要支撑位。 i澄升始震 周二 LME 铜价继续回落、今日（20251105 周三）沪铜止跌震 荡、主力 2512 合约收盘在 85670 元/吨,较上一交易目收盘价下跌 70 元/吨,跌幅 0.08%;美元指数开始震荡不再走高,铜价触及 85000 元/吨重要关口后，暂时止跌，开始震荡。 今日现货市场氛围尚可,铜价下跌后市场采购情绪转好，下游企 业逢低采购积极性有所提升,现货市场流通似有减少支撑现货升水。 中国部分地区市场光亮铜精废价差继续回落，广东地区为 2562 元/ 吨. 天津地区 2640元/吨。 2. 宏观和基本面 美联储官员在 12 月降息这个议题上保持模糊策略导致美元近期 走强,而美元走强是近期压制铜价的主要原因。但市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率一度下降至 67%,今天该概率提高至 73.9%。高盛认为美联储 12 月降息是基准预测。这也意味着未来美 联储官员改口风也是大概率事件。 美国联邦政府停摆要进入第 36天 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall shock - upward pattern of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged. After key events, the macro focus has shifted from macro narratives to real - world demand, causing an adjustment. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend again. [11] - In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic copper demand will enter a seasonal peak season, so the copper price center is expected to move up. [3][13] - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound trend. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. [14] - The aluminum industry chain presents a complex situation. Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, while alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. [14] - Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. [15] - Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. [15] - Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: After key events, the macro focus has shifted to real - world demand, causing an adjustment in non - ferrous metals. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend. There are different economic trends in the US, China, and the Eurozone. [11] - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand peaks, copper prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. [3][13] - **Zinc**: Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [14] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on aluminum, short alumina on highs, and be bullish on the aluminum industry chain. [14] - **Tin**: Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or be slightly bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Lead**: Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. The recommended strategy is to sell both call and put options, with a support range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. [15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton for stainless steel, and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton for stainless steel. [15][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Situation**: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, such as copper at 86,320 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and aluminum at 21,630 yuan/ton with a 1.10% increase. [16] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - **Position Analysis**: The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, along with the influencing factors. [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 85,990 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 22,510 yuan/ton with no change. [20] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are provided to show the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel in the industry chain. [22][24][27] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant charts are provided to show the arbitrage - related data such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and price differences of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [46][48][51] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant charts are provided to show the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of options for copper, zinc, and aluminum. [64][66][68]

Core Points - The onshore RMB against the USD opened higher at 7.1195, compared to the previous closing of 7.1219 [1] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1242 as of 9:35 AM [1] - The central parity rate of RMB against USD was adjusted up by 29 basis points to 7.0836 [1] - The USD index fell to 99.7612, dropping below the 100 mark [1] Market Analysis - Huatai Futures research report indicates that the USD to RMB is expected to fluctuate around the 7.10 range, with market focus on expectation recovery and policy release [1] - There is a potential for RMB appreciation if the Federal Reserve initiates a substantial rate cut cycle and domestic policy support continues to strengthen [1] - The RMB central tendency may gently rise to 7.0, but caution is advised regarding potential short-term rebounds in the USD due to the end of the US government shutdown and core data revisions, which could increase RMB volatility [1]

债券市场的鸽派重新定价将芝加哥商品交易所（CME）美联储观察工具显示的12月降息的隐含概率从 前一天的62%推高至69%，逆转了美联储11月声明后出现的部分鹰派重新定价。 美元指数技术分析 美元指数日线图显示，在200日均线下方的确认反转已在短期内决定性地改变了市场对美元的看法。如 果当前的抛售压力持续，美元指数可能会测试99.463的支撑位，这是50日均线99.359之前的最后一道防 线。由于劳动力数据走软、收益率下降以及货币交叉表现走强，下行风险仍然较高，除非新的数据或美 联储的评论改变预期。 周五（11月7日）美元指数在昨日偶盘中跌落100，早些时候尝试突破100.360失败后，其回调幅度扩大 至200日均线以下。该指数下跌0.3%，目前交投于99.771。在裁员公告激增和美国国债收益率普遍下降 后，风险情绪变得谨慎。 随着固定收益市场对不断恶化的劳动力前景做出反应，美国国债收益率全线走低。10年期国债收益率下 跌超过6个基点，至4.089%，2年期国债收益率降至3.566%，30年期国债收益率降至4.686%。 此前，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普政府时期推出的互惠关税的合法性表示怀疑。如果对该政策做出不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of precious metals, including gold and silver. It points out that there are fluctuations in the prices of COMEX gold and silver futures, as well as Shanghai gold and silver. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, the change of ETF holdings, and the performance of the US economic data. The short - term trend of gold and silver is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.06% to 915.24 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.11% to 11359 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - As of November 6, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. [1] - In October, global gold ETFs had five consecutive months of capital inflows, and the average daily trading volume reached a record high. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 29.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 17.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 28.2%. [1] Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, in line with market expectations. But Powell's hawkish speech reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. [1] - The US government shutdown continued, breaking the historical record. On November 7, the US dollar index fell to 99.70. [1] - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected increase of 30,000. The US ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, rebounding more than expected. [1] - The US NASDAQ index led the decline in overnight US stocks, the volatility of the financial market increased, and the night - session prices of Shanghai gold and silver both fell slightly. [1] Trading Strategy - After the short - term peaks of gold and silver were confirmed, last week COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce and then rebounded back above $4000. On Tuesday this week, it broke below 4000 again. In the short - term, it may fluctuate around 4000, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月6日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.45%报99.70，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.48%报 1.1548，英镑兑美元涨0.67%报1.3139，澳元兑美元跌0.41%报0.6480，美元兑加元涨0.07%报1.4119，美 元兑瑞郎跌0.49%报0.8062。 ...

新华财经纽约11月6日电美元指数6日下跌。 （文章来源：新华社） 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1544美元，高于前一交易日的1.1486美元；1英镑兑换1.3132美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3047美元。 1美元兑换153.14日元，低于前一交易日的154.11日元；1美元兑换0.8066瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8104瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4113加元，与前一交易日基本持平；1美元兑换9.5682瑞典克朗，高于前 一交易日的9.5654瑞典克朗。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.47%，在汇市尾市收于99.735。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（11月6日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.51%，刷新日低至99.671点，"跳空低 开"至100.105点（形成日内顶部）之后，全天持续震荡下挫，北京时间21:30发布美国就业数据之后跌至 99.735点、随后一度收窄跌幅短线形成V形走势。彭博美元指数跌0.30%，报1221.46点，全天处于持续 的下跌状态，整体交投区间为1225.04-1220.86点。 ...