Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.08% to 97.61, indicating a slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of currencies [1] - Most non-US currencies experienced a decline, with the euro down 0.01% to 1.1736 against the dollar [1] - The British pound fell by 0.13% to 1.3555, while the Australian dollar decreased by 0.16% to 0.6650 against the dollar [1] Group 2 - The US dollar appreciated by 0.30% against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.6600 [1] - The dollar also rose by 0.10% against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3847 [1] - Additionally, the dollar increased by 0.09% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.7966 [1]

Inflation and Employment Data - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1% to 3.1%, marking a six-month high[2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - The market has fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, with the dollar index remaining in a weak adjustment zone[2] - The conflicting data of strong inflation and weak employment may complicate the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path[3] Core CPI and Contributing Factors - The core CPI's 0.35% month-on-month increase in August is the highest in seven months, driven by accelerated tariff transmission and rising rents[3] - Durable goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, reflecting the impact of tariffs on consumer prices[3] Future Economic Outlook - The sustainability of inflationary pressures is likely, with ongoing tariff impacts and stable wage growth contributing to core inflation[3] - The potential effects of a new tax cut plan on consumer demand and labor market dynamics could influence the Fed's rate decisions in 2026[3] Monetary Policy Considerations - Current conditions suggest a favorable window for monetary policy easing, with a potential 10 basis point rate cut to stabilize the real estate market[4] - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts falling short of market expectations, which could constrain domestic monetary easing[4]

–美元走弱、资本回流叠加中国经济回稳，汇率市场正在重新定价 l 最近换美元是不是感觉有点"不划算"？没错，人民币正在悄悄变强，中间价逼近7.1，热闹得让空头有点坐不住。这背后可不是偶然，而是一场内外合力的 结果。 外因：美联储"放鸽"，美元低头。美联储在杰克逊霍尔年会释放降息信号，市场预期9月降息概率飙升至八成以上。结果美元指数自高点跌近一成，跌破98 关口。美元一旦走弱，非美货币全体反弹，人民币顺势迎来补涨。 内因：政策护航，资本追捧。央行发行离岸央票，收紧部分流动性，释放稳定预期的信号。与此同时，A股8月强势反弹，外资净流入超22亿美元，股汇联 动效应推升人民币结汇需求，升值动能明显增强。 底气：经济韧性，未来可期。更深层的支撑来自中国经济本身。促消费、支持科创、绿色转型等政策组合拳发力，新质生产力持续壮大，宏观经济稳中向 好。这才是人民币长期稳定的"压舱石"。 展望未来，"稳中有升、双向波动"仍是主旋律。企业与个人应顺势而为，管好风险敞口，别幻想一边倒的行情。人民币的强势，更像是一场长期的耐力赛， 而不是短跑冲刺。 （唐加文，笔名金观平；本文成稿后，经AI审阅校对） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weak USD index, strong domestic equity market performance, and favorable monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. External Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, particularly the indication of a potential rate cut in September, has significantly impacted the currency market, leading to a nearly 10% decline in the USD index since the beginning of the year [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is partly due to the accelerated rise in the RMB/USD central parity rate, with the central bank recently issuing 45 billion yuan in offshore RMB central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity [3][4]. Internal Factors - The recovery of China's capital market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, with significant increases in major stock indices: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13% in August [4]. - Continuous expansion of the trade surplus in recent months has provided real demand-side support for the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing improvement in China's economic fundamentals, driven by structural transformation and supportive policies, is expected to provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely maintain a steady trend, with expectations of a gradual convergence of onshore, offshore, and central parity rates [5].

与此同时，美元指数震荡，截至9时30分，报97.6007。 华福证券研报称，进入9月，美元出现波动反弹，但人民币汇率依然存在长期强支撑。一方面是弱美元 外部环境，特朗普频繁施压、动摇美联储独立性；美国经济存在不确定性，8月美国非农数据远低于预 期、失业率升至2021年以来最高；另一方面是中国经济稳中向好，7月份我国出口数据保持韧性。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月12日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘上涨，报 7.1184，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1235。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1154。 同日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1019，上调15个基点。 ...

Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]

专家认为，近期人民币汇率快速上涨主要受内外多重因素共同驱动，包括美元指数偏弱运行创造了相对 温和的外部环境、人民币对美元中间价报价释放较强的汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼 一定程度吸引了外资流入等。展望未来，人民币汇率将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 "今年以来美元指数跌幅显著，而人民币升值幅度在非美货币中排名靠后，体现了补涨需求。"中金公司 研究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。此外，人民币汇率明显走强，部分源自人民币对美元中间价的升 值加速。在李刘阳看来，近日中国人民银行宣布发行450亿元离岸人民币央票，CNH Hibor(离岸人民币 香港银行同业拆息)也呈现小幅抬升，离岸人民币流动性或有所收紧，这被认为是人民币汇率升值的另 一个原因。 近段时间，人民币对美元汇率呈现走强趋势。Wind数据显示，8月份，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率涨 幅分别为0.83%、1.21%。在此背景下，人民币中间价也刷新了年内新低，正在逼近7.1的水平。9月9 日，人民币对美元汇率中间价上调21个基点至7.1008。 从外部看，美联储政策转向是本轮汇市行情的重要"推手"。8月下旬，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔 年会上释放9月 ...

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is driven by multiple internal and external factors, including a weaker USD index and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflow [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is also influenced by the acceleration of the RMB/USD central parity rate and the issuance of offshore RMB central bank bills, which may tighten offshore RMB liquidity [2][3] - China's economic recovery and improving fundamentals provide long-term support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate, with policies promoting consumption and innovation contributing to market confidence [3][4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [4] - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will likely continue to exhibit a trend of "stability with an upward bias" and "two-way fluctuations" in the future [4] - Companies are advised to adapt to the normalcy of exchange rate fluctuations and manage foreign exchange risk exposure within reasonable limits to avoid impacting normal operations [4]

来源：视频滚动新闻 周四（9月11日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.28%，报97.517点，亚太盘初开始平缓地窄幅震荡上 行，北京时间20:30发布美国CPI数据时涨至98.087点刷新日高，随后跳水，23:24刷新日低至97.473点。 彭博美元指数跌0.28%，报1197.57点，日内交投区间为1204.08-1197.35点。 ...

"今年以来美元指数跌幅显著，而人民币升值幅度在非美货币中排名靠后，体现了补涨需求。"中金 公司研究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。此外，人民币汇率明显走强，部分源自人民币对美元中间价 的升值加速。在李刘阳看来，近日中国人民银行宣布发行450亿元离岸人民币央票，CNH Hibor（离岸 人民币香港银行同业拆息）也呈现小幅抬升，离岸人民币流动性或有所收紧，这被认为是人民币汇率升 值的另一个原因。 近段时间，人民币对美元汇率呈现走强趋势。Wind数据显示，8月份，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇 率涨幅分别为0.83%、1.21%。在此背景下，人民币中间价也刷新了年内新低，正在逼近7.1的水平。9月 9日，人民币对美元汇率中间价上调21个基点至7.1008。 专家认为，近期人民币汇率快速上涨主要受内外多重因素共同驱动，包括美元指数偏弱运行创造了 相对温和的外部环境、人民币对美元中间价报价释放较强的汇率预期引导，以及近期国内权益市场表现 亮眼一定程度吸引了外资流入等。展望未来，人民币汇率将在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 从外部看，美联储政策转向是本轮汇市行情的重要"推手"。8月下旬，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊 霍尔年会上释放9月 ...