1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term task that has not kept pace with China's growing economic stature globally. The article explores the potential acceleration of RMB internationalization and analyzes the associated benefits and drawbacks, particularly from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [2][3]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization does not match China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its economic weight [6][8]. - RMB payment share globally may be underestimated, with actual RMB payment settlement estimated at around 8%, despite SWIFT reporting a lower figure [10][17]. - Historical evidence suggests that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [9][27]. Group 2: RMB Valuation and Liquidity - The market exchange rate of the RMB is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, primarily due to insufficient global liquidity, resulting in a high liquidity premium [4][29]. - The high M2 money supply does not equate to significant depreciation pressure, as a large portion of M2 consists of foreign exchange reserves due to trade surpluses [4][34]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which dominates global payments and reserves, contributes to its overvaluation, while the RMB's liquidity needs to be improved to enhance its valuation [4][50]. Group 3: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The current environment is favorable for accelerating RMB internationalization, with a declining USD index and increasing demand for RMB in cross-border transactions due to Chinese enterprises expanding overseas [40][50]. - The use of RMB in cross-border payments has significantly increased, with 2023 figures showing RMB cross-border payment amounts for goods and services at 24.8% and 31.9%, respectively [52]. - The low financing costs of RMB, driven by the divergence in interest rates between China and the US, enhance its attractiveness as a financing currency [53]. Group 4: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account and providing exchange facilitation for enterprises and residents to enhance RMB's global circulation [56][60]. - The establishment of a legal framework for RMB stablecoins is recommended to improve the currency's liquidity and international standing [63][64]. - The central bank should consider reducing its holdings of USD assets while increasing gold reserves to strengthen RMB's credibility [64][68]. Group 5: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization is expected to support high-quality economic growth, allowing for a potential adjustment of GDP growth targets [71]. - The internationalization of RMB can help Chinese enterprises optimize asset allocation globally, enhancing their competitiveness and market valuation [75][76]. - While RMB appreciation may negatively impact exports, the overall benefits of internationalization are expected to outweigh the drawbacks, particularly as trade quality improves [80].

Global Asset Market Performance - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies were as follows: the US was 4.401, the UK was 4.632, etc. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries [3]. - The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on July 8, 2025, showed different values for the US, UK, etc., with corresponding changes over different time periods [3]. - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies on July 8, 2025, had different values for South Africa, Brazil, etc., and also had different changes over different time periods [3]. - The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates and their corresponding changes on July 8, 2025, were presented, including latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes [3]. - Major economies' stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Emerging - economy stock indices on July 8, 2025, had different closing prices for Malaysia, Australia, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3]. - Credit bond indices on July 8, 2025, had different values for emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, etc., and different changes over different time periods [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, valuations, risk premiums, fund flows, trading volumes, and basis spreads of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were presented [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - On July 8, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of Treasury futures T00, TF00, etc., were presented, along with the money market's capital interest rates and daily changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market performance shows mixed results across various indices, with the ChiNext Index rising while the STAR 50 Index slightly declined, indicating a divergence in sector performance and potential investment opportunities in specific areas [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over the last five trading days, the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.35%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.50%. The large-cap value stocks rose by 1.94%, and large-cap growth stocks increased by 1.78%. The Shanghai 50 Index saw a rise of 1.21%, and the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 increased by 0.53% [1]. - Steel and building materials sectors performed well, while the computer and non-bank financial sectors lagged behind [1]. Group 2: Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds, reached 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022, indicating a market rebound potential. As of January 19, 2024, the indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the CSI All Index's PE TTM percentile was at 61%, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 67% and 60%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 20%, indicating a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages [2]. Group 3: Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 21.2 billion yuan, while margin financing increased by approximately 19.7 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 1.4136 trillion yuan [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and AI Modeling - The long-term technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with significant declines observed in previous cycles. The current adjustment phase, which began in the first quarter of 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2]. - A convolutional neural network model has been developed to analyze price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes, with a focus on banking and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi emphasizes the need to be cautious about the rising risk premium associated with ultra-long-term government bonds and the increasing volatility of the yield curve, which could inadvertently trigger a broad transmission of monetary tightening effects in the market [1] Group 1 - The risk premium for ultra-long-term government bonds is on the rise [1] - There is an increase in the volatility of the yield curve [1] - These factors may lead to unintended consequences in the form of monetary tightening effects spreading throughout the market [1]

日本央行审议委员高田创：超长期日本国债的风险溢价上升往往会导致市场功能恶化，波动性会蔓延到 整个收益率曲线。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slow progress of RMB internationalization compared to China's growing global economic status, exploring the feasibility and implications of accelerating this process from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [1]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization is not commensurate with China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its GDP share [4][5]. - RMB's share in global payments is estimated to be around 8%, with a significant portion of international payments occurring in Hong Kong [4][11]. - Historical data shows that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [4][27]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Internationalization - The RMB market exchange rate is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, indicating a high liquidity premium due to insufficient global liquidity [4][28]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which constitutes 48.46% of global payment currency and 57.8% of reserve currency, creates a situation where the USD is overvalued [47][48]. - The external environment, including the declining USD index and rising US debt pressure, presents a favorable opportunity for RMB internationalization [40][41]. Group 3: Recommendations for Accelerating RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account, providing exchange convenience for enterprises and residents, and studying the legislation of RMB stablecoins to enhance RMB's international payment and settlement roles [56][62]. - The article emphasizes the need for the central bank to gradually reduce its holdings of USD assets and increase gold reserves, which would enhance RMB's credibility [63][67]. Group 4: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - Accelerating RMB internationalization is expected to facilitate China's economic transformation, allowing for a potential reduction in GDP growth targets as the RMB appreciates [68][69]. - The internationalization of the RMB can help Chinese enterprises grow stronger by attracting foreign investment into the A-share market and supporting overseas mergers and acquisitions [10][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has influenced gold prices, leading to a bearish trend in the market, with potential further declines expected in the near term [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Following the ceasefire announcement, gold prices peaked at 3393 but subsequently fell to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown negative signals, suggesting increased selling pressure and the likelihood of continued price declines [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3260 and 3253, with a primary bearish outlook prevailing [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - A short-term buying opportunity is suggested if gold prices drop to around 3255, with a stop loss at 3245 and a target of 3290-3300 [2]. - A selling strategy is recommended for gold if it rebounds to the 3310-15 range, with a stop loss at 3320 and a target of 3290-3280, extending to 3250 if the price breaks down [2]. Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have shown slight declines after previous gains, trading around 36.50 USD per ounce, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence potentially limiting further declines [4]. - The silver market remains bullish as long as prices do not fall below the critical support level of 35.2, with a short-term target of 37 USD [4].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from TS Lombard suggest that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% due to stable term premiums and limited room for further yield declines if risk premiums do not compress significantly [1] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The additional yield required by investors for holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as term premium, has not changed significantly recently [1] - The stability in term premiums indicates that there is limited space for further declines in yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields [1]