Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing reliance of the U.S. AI infrastructure on foreign suppliers, particularly in the context of power generation and the associated supply chain challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Key Equipment and Components - Four categories of equipment are identified as critically expensive and heavily reliant on foreign sources, coinciding with significant shortages in U.S. power construction [2]. - The heavy-duty utility gas turbine market is dominated by three original equipment manufacturers (OEMs): General Electric's Vernova, Siemens from Germany, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries from Japan, with nearly 50% of the supply in the U.S. coming from imports [2][3]. - The U.S. no longer produces large integrated reactor pressure vessels and related hardware, with recent projects relying on foreign manufacturers like Doosan from South Korea for critical components [4]. - Over 80% of large transformers, essential for transmitting power from plants to the grid, are manufactured by suppliers from countries such as South Korea, Germany, and Canada [5][6]. - Steel and steel products are also highlighted as potential cost-increasing factors, with U.S. project developers often depending on imports to meet cost and capacity needs [7][8]. Group 2: Tariff Impacts - The increase in tariffs on imported goods exacerbates the complexity of AI infrastructure projects, with potential budget increases of 3%-6% translating to hundreds of millions in costs for energy projects [9]. - Tariff impacts are unevenly distributed, and while some allied suppliers benefit from lower tariffs, the overall scale of required materials and equipment still leads to cost increases [9]. Group 3: Labor Shortages - A significant expansion of skilled labor is necessary to support the rapid growth of industrial infrastructure, with current shortages in welders, machinists, and electricians posing a critical bottleneck [10]. - The construction industry in the U.S. is in decline, highlighting the urgent need for skilled labor to meet the demands of upcoming projects [10].

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, with a one-year term [1][2]. Digital Economy - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, emphasizing the acceleration of international data service business development [1][2]. - A joint guideline from eight departments encourages the development of digital consumption, urging companies to innovate and increase the supply of AI terminal products [3]. Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration announced that 145 domestic online games and 11 imported games received approval for publication as of September 2025 [2]. Energy Sector - The China Electricity Council predicts that the national electrification rate will grow steadily at an average annual rate of about 1 percentage point during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching around 35% by 2030, exceeding the OECD average by 8-10 percentage points [2]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with expectations of a tenfold increase in energy consumption for its global data centers by 2032 [5]. - North American cloud providers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to invest over 350 billion dollars in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding 400 billion dollars by 2026 [6]. Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, prohibiting new cement and flat glass production capacity [7]. - The plan aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for cement prices to rise and regional leading enterprises to recover profitability [7]. Company Developments - Guoer Co., Ltd. leads in micro speakers, MEMS acoustic sensors, VR/MR products, AI smart glasses, and other smart wearable devices [4]. - Huayi Group expects a net profit of 340 million to 420 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.81% to 109.77% [8]. - Heng Rui Medicine has reached a milestone payment agreement for its innovative drug project, with potential payments up to 1.093 billion dollars [9]. - PetroChina Oilfield Services signed a contract worth approximately 2.553 billion yuan for an overseas project [10]. - Jicheng Electronics won a bid for a project with the State Grid, totaling approximately 81.836 million yuan [11].

AI Hardware - The Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, encouraging companies to accelerate the development of AI terminal products and explore new consumption potential in AI smartphones, computers, and other devices [1] - Dongfang Securities predicts that more large model manufacturers and internet companies will enter the hardware market, creating a direct path from models to terminals to users, which will drive innovation in smart hardware [1] AI Infrastructure - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with plans for further investment, anticipating a tenfold increase in energy consumption at Alibaba Cloud's global data centers by 2032 [2] - North American cloud providers are expected to invest over $350 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding $400 billion by 2026 [2] Cement Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize growth in the building materials industry, prohibiting new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [3] - Galaxy Securities believes that the "anti-involution" sentiment will accelerate supply optimization in the cement industry, leading to price increases and improved profitability for regional leading enterprises [3] Nuclear Fusion - China Fusion Energy Company showcased its technology and business layout at an industrial expo, aiming for commercial nuclear fusion energy by 2050 [4] - Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as a key to achieving "energy freedom," providing a clean and virtually limitless energy source [4] Physical AI - Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA announced a collaboration in the Physical AI field, integrating NVIDIA's software stack into Alibaba's AI platform to enhance the development cycle of applications like embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [5] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued policies to promote digital consumption and support the development of international data centers and cloud computing centers in specific regions [6] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology projected that the number of new Beidou-supported terminals and devices will exceed 400 million by the end of 2028 [7]

"卖铲子的人"向"递铲子的人"角色转变。根据英伟达此前披露，建设1GW算力的成本大 约为500-600亿美元，而英伟达的芯片与系统占其中约350亿美元。我们认为最新的10GW数 据中心建设项目投资规模大约为5000-6000亿美元—与此前公布的星际之门Stargate（投资约 5000亿美元）项目规模基本一致，而英伟达在其中能收获大约3500亿美元收入。10吉瓦算力 相当于400-500万块GPU，与英伟达今年预计的出货量一致，并且是英伟达去年出货量的两 倍。而OpenAI的Sam Altman认为，建设这套基础设施对OpenAI的所有目标都至关重要。没 有它，OpenAI无法向用户交付他们想要的服务，也无法持续打造更好的模型。这些基础设 施就是推动OpenAI改进模型、增加营收的"燃料"。 AI的下半场，已经从模型的比拼，进入到基础设施的全面扩张。为什么是投资1000亿美 元？为什么又选择了OpenAI？根据科技最前线统计，过去一年，ChatGPT每周有7亿人使 用，已经是全球最受欢迎的AI产品。但这只是开始。Altman反复强调，OpenAI的使命不是 做一款应用，而是要推动"超级智能"的到来。而要实现这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the AI infrastructure sector, including 德科立, 仕佳光子, 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and 润泽科技 [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant investment by NVIDIA in OpenAI, amounting to up to $100 billion (approximately 711.47 billion RMB), aimed at deploying at least 10GW of NVIDIA systems, which includes millions of GPUs [1][2]. - The transition from "selling shovels" to "delivering shovels" is noted, with the estimated cost of building 1GW of computing power being around $50-60 billion, where NVIDIA's chips and systems account for approximately $35 billion [2]. - The AI sector is entering a phase focused on infrastructure expansion rather than just model competition, with OpenAI's mission to drive "superintelligence" being heavily reliant on computational power [3]. - The report suggests that the current focus in AI infrastructure has shifted from cloud vendor spending to AIDC cloud computing centers, recommending companies with a first-mover advantage in GPU cards [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch include Oracle, Coreweave, Nebius, AppliedGigital, and Iris Energy for their GPU card advantages [4]. - In the domestic market, companies like 润泽科技, 奥飞数据, and 润建股份 are highlighted for their potential in AI infrastructure [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating strong growth potential for 2024-2026 [5]. - For example, 中际旭创 is projected to have an EPS of 12.94 RMB by 2026 with a PE ratio of 34, while 新易盛 is expected to reach an EPS of 13.10 RMB with a PE of 27 [5]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, with OpenAI's rapid growth and significant contracts with cloud service providers indicating a robust market environment [3]. - The establishment of a 1GW data center by OpenAI in 2026 is anticipated to mark a milestone in the infrastructure arms race, paving the way for large-scale application deployment [3].

报告导读： 上周全球市场小幅收涨，估值继续拔升，港股卖空占比降至历史低位。资金面 上，美联储如期降息 25BP ，但鲍威尔发言中性偏鸽，联储年内或降息 2 次左右。基本面 上，上周欧美经济预期出现改善，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收涨。 股市方面，MSCI全球+1.0%，其中MSCI发达+1.0%、MSCI新兴+1.1%。债市方面，美国10Y国债利率大幅上升。大宗 方面，金价小幅收涨，原油、铜价下跌。汇率方面，美元平，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币平。分板块看，上周全球可选消费与信息技术板块表现突出。 交投情绪：上周欧美股市成交明显放量，港股卖空占比降至历史低位。 从成交看，上周恒指、日经225成交下降，标普500、欧洲Stoxx50、韩国Kospi200 成交上升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、日股波动率下降，美 股、欧股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周提升。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期转为上修，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 横向对比来看，上周港股25年盈利预期边际变化表现最优，美股、 ...

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.1% [8][9] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq Index showed the strongest performance with a rise of 2.2%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, declining by 1.0% [8][9] - In the emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with a gain of 2.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [8][9] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets significantly increased, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropped to a historical low of 11.8% [17][21] - The Hang Seng Index's trading volume decreased to 177 billion shares with a total turnover of 918 billion USD, while the S&P 500's trading volume increased to 62 billion shares with a turnover of 82,150 billion USD [17] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, reaching historical highs, while sentiment in the US declined but remained elevated [17] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2066 to 2068 [59][60] - In contrast, the S&P 500's earnings expectations remained flat at 269, while the Eurozone STOXX50's earnings expectations also held steady at 337 [59][60] - Sector-wise, the energy sector in Hong Kong saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant downward adjustment [59][60] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the US improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and tech giants accelerating AI infrastructure investments [8][59] - Conversely, China's Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by US-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [8] Fund Flows - Following the Fed's rate cut, market speculation regarding future rate cuts intensified, with futures markets indicating an expectation of 1.8 rate cuts by the end of the year [46][52] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with Hong Kong experiencing a net inflow of 292 billion HKD last week [53][58] - The inflow included 145 billion HKD from stable foreign capital, while flexible foreign capital saw an outflow of 130 billion HKD [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][10][29] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is in its early stages, with significant advancements expected. Companies like Figure and Tesla are leading the way, and there are long-term investment opportunities in this space [2][18] - Microsoft is set to invest $30 billion in AI infrastructure in the UK, indicating strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying key suppliers and companies with strong market positions in the humanoid robot and AI infrastructure sectors [2][8] Summary by Sections Key Events - Figure completed a $1 billion Series C funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of $39 billion [1][18] - Microsoft announced a $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure in the UK, reflecting ongoing high demand for AI capabilities [3][19] Industry Dynamics - The humanoid robot sector is seeing rapid advancements, with various companies making significant progress in technology and applications [4][5] - Governments and tech giants are expected to maintain high levels of investment in AI infrastructure over the coming years [3][5] Company Dynamics - Key companies to watch include Figure, Tesla, and Microsoft, with a focus on their roles in advancing humanoid robotics and AI infrastructure [2][3][4] - Notable companies mentioned for investment opportunities include 飞荣达, 龙溪股份, and 汇川技术, among others [2][8][10] Investment Insights - For humanoid robots, focus on suppliers with strong market positions and those involved in key components like joints and sensors [8][10] - In AI infrastructure, attention should be given to companies involved in AI liquid cooling, power generation, and cooling systems [8][10]

Macroeconomic Insights - The number of financing platforms in China decreased by over 60% compared to March 2023, and the scale of financial debt dropped by over 50% as of the end of June [2] - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with a focus on moderately easing monetary policy to reduce overall financing costs [2] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice for the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value [4] - The plan includes precise control of capacity and output, prohibiting new capacity additions, and enhancing the supply and price stability of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal [4] - The State Sports General Administration released guidelines to promote a high-quality development of sports for health, aiming to establish a collaborative service system by 2030 [4] Company Dynamics - OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership, with NVIDIA planning to invest up to 100 billion dollars in OpenAI [6] - BYD's Li Yunfei responded to Warren Buffett's divestment, noting that stock investment involves both buying and selling [6] - Pfizer is nearing a deal to acquire obesity drug developer Metsera for 7.3 billion dollars, with potential additional payments based on performance targets [6] - Longchuan Technology reported a net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 131% to 145% [12]

看似特朗普的财政部部长贝森特看美联储不顺眼？但实际上，两个掌握着经济命脉的部门，真到事上，还是"亲密无间"。 就是在这样向好的预期之下，美联储降息了25个基点，对于降息的原因解释说得也比较明白，主要是因为就业比原本预期的要差。 按照美联储的解释，这个差不只是说移民导致的供给减少，而是岗位需求减少更快，导致失业率是缓慢上升的，虽然目前的失业率还是在健康状态，但是 要提前预防式降息，来刺激企业岗位需求，防止就业进一步恶化。 所以核心两点：经济没问题情况下的预防式降息。 但更有意思的是，在FOMC的经济预测更新上，FOMC委员们调高了近三年的经济增长预期、2026的通胀预期，但调低了政策利率和失业率。 也就是说，2025年除了GDP更好之外，其他不变；2026年开始通胀稍微抬头，但GDP增长预期和失业率预期都是在转好的。 | 2025/9/17 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | PCE | 3.0% | 2. ...