石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-27 供需两弱格局延续，市场低位震荡 市场分析 1、11月26日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3043元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.56%；持仓152279手，环比下跌1513手，成交187910手，环比增加27854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2960—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日山东地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。山东地区沥青现货资源供应较为 充裕，施压沥青现货价格下行。从基本面来看，当前供需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂 开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，部分炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位。不过目前冬储需求还没有 明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures market may maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. For the unilateral strategy, it is neutral, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4500 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4000 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4300 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, South China market 4250 - 4380 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 572 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, stable. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 564 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted prices of propane in East and South China increased by 21 and 22 yuan/ton respectively, while butane decreased by 2 yuan/ton in both regions [1]. - The external market continued to be in a volatile and strong state, and the prices were basically stable yesterday. High discounts increased the CIF cost, which supported the domestic spot and futures markets. Domestic spot prices generally rose steadily. Shandong's civil gas prices increased, while the mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - after carbon four in East China remained stable. The market supply pressure was not large, and market participants were positive. Terminal demand was stable, and downstream users' purchasing sentiment was rational and stable [1]. - Recently, the LPG market showed a marginal tightening trend due to the decline in domestic refinery output and arrival volume, but the sustainability may be limited. Downstream chemical demand was suppressed by rising costs. On the other hand, Middle - East supply may increase after refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

来源：市场资讯 白糖： 消息方面，S&P Global预计巴西中南部地区11月上半月甘蔗压榨量为1885万吨，同比增加14.9%；预计 食糖产量为107.5万吨，同比增加18.9%；预计制糖比为41.94%。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价区间为 5580~5650元/吨，持平；云南制糖集团陈糖报价5350~5400元/吨，新糖报价5310~5500元/吨，部分新糖 下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5750~5890元/吨，个别上调10元/吨。原糖方面，巴西本榨季趋 于收榨，有机构调低对于26/27榨季巴西产量的预估，北半球方面仍保持增产预期不变。国内目前现货 成交一般，报价暂时持平，随着更多糖厂开榨，未来现货价格预计仍将承压。期货方面1月合约即将移 仓，震荡加剧，静待5月合约空头入场机会。 棉花： 周三，ICE美棉上涨0.59%，报收64.61美分/磅，CF601环比持平，报收13625元/吨，主力合约持仓环比 下降11839手至54.06万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数14475元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面， 宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储12月降息25b ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected, high imports in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradiction, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases have no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: Overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [4]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good.后续供应预计环比略增加, and the 01 contract may face pressure due to over - capacity, which can be relieved by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [4]. - PVC: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. PVC comprehensive profit is -100 [4]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,动力煤期货 remained at 801,江苏现货 increased from 2007 to 2088,华南现货 increased from 1990 to 2048, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for动力煤期货, 31 for江苏现货, etc [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,东北亚乙烯 was 730 (except for the last day when it was not provided),华北LL decreased from 6800 to 6700, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were -40 for华北LL, 0 for华东LL, etc [4]. PP - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,山东丙烯 increased from 5900 to 6050,东北亚丙烯 remained at 695,华东PP decreased from 6300 to 6250, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 130 for山东丙烯, -20 for华东PP, etc [4]. PVC - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,西北电石 remained at 2450 (after an increase on 2025/11/24),山东烧碱 remained at 777,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4470 to 4520, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for西北电石, -10 for电石法 - 华东, etc [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况 主力合约换月，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-11-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于97740元/吨，收于96340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.45%。当日成 交量为810231手，持仓量为478054手，前一交易日持仓量430223手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5540元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27050手，较上个交易日变化435手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价90000-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价88800-92000元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1185美元/吨，较前一日变化65美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货呈现区间震荡格局，主力合约已切换至2605，期货价格主要波动于9.53至9.99万元/吨之间。下游 材料厂采购意愿在短暂回暖后重归观望，采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交表现清淡。目前，上下游企业正在就明年 的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。 10月，特斯拉在欧盟的新车 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures on November 27, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. For example, PX is advised not to be chased at high prices in the short term, and MEG's supply - demand pattern is improving [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term not to chase high, with the price rising on November 26. The spread between PX and naphtha continues to expand. Suggest to exit long positions, go long MEG and short PX, and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage position [2][6][10]. - **PTA**: In a unilateral oscillating market, not to chase high. Valuation is at a high level, suggest to exit long positions and go long MEG and short PTA for hedging [2][10]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand balance sheet improves, suggest to cut short positions, take profit on short - position and reverse - arbitrage, and go long MEG and short PX for hedging [2][10]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trend strength is 1. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume has also increased. In October 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports showed a short - term slowdown, and the export orders in November were weak [11][12][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. The inventory of domestic butadiene and butadiene rubber has increased. The short - term is in a weak decline, and the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [15][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is following the weak trend of crude oil. The trend strength is - 1. The production capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the shipment volume has also increased. The planned production volume in December has decreased [19][27][28]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a situation where import offers may decrease and cracking load is disturbed. The trend strength is 0. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid demand. The supply side has some short - term contradictions, and medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure [29][30]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, do not chase short positions in the PP market, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The supply side is currently under high pressure, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit of PP limits the downward space [31][32][33]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is also limited, and long - term negative feedback may occur in the industry chain [35][37][38]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. In November 2025, the pulp market showed a pattern of "weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp". The price changes are affected by factors such as financial attributes, cost, and supply - demand structure [40][42][44]. 3.9 Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The trend strength is 0. The spot price is slightly weak, the cost support is increasing, but the processing factory orders are average, and the trading volume is general [47][48]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market continues the short - term rebound pattern. The trend strength is 1. The spot price index has increased, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term rebound is due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and capital games, while the medium - term fundamentals are still under pressure [50][52][53]. 3.11 Urea - The urea market is operating within a range, and the intraday trend mainly follows the spot sentiment. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The domestic fundamentals are under pressure, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [55][56][57]. 3.12 Styrene - The styrene market is oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is - 1. The pure benzene market is oscillating, and the styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise device is stable with minor fluctuations, the downstream demand is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62][63]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The external market is strong, and the demand is acceptable. The trend strength is 0. The CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane have increased [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The demand support is weakening, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is 0 [22][66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC market is oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The market is in a weak oscillation, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. Although the absolute valuation is low, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [74][75]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating at night, may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continuing the adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market has shrunk again. The trend strength is 0 [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is operating weakly. The trend strength is not explicitly stated, but the market shows a weak trend with fluctuations in freight rates and trading volumes [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction exceeds expectations, polyester load remains strong, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port arrivals this week are moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and some short - process oil - chemical plants face great production pressure. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content found. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamentals: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, and the spot basis was strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 31 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4647, the 01 contract basis is - 37, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net long, long positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, but the price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and adjusted, and the market negotiation was weak. The basis was weak, and the buying was scarce [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3910, the 01 contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main force position: Net short, short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Port inventory may be compressed slightly, but external supply reduction is not obvious. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content found. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, and consumption [13]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as basis, inter - month spreads, and profit data [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers over the years [44][46][49]. - **Operating Rate Data**: Presents the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester industries over the years [56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers over the years [64][67][70].

商 品 研 究 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 27 日 LPG：外盘强势，需求尚可 丙烯：需求支撑转弱，上涨驱动有限 研 究 所 期货研究 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 图 3：中东丙烷升贴水 图 4：运费 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,383 | 1.93% | 4,366 | -0.39% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,288 | 1.37% | 4,281 | -0.16% | | | PL2601 | 5,853 | -0.63% | 5,880 | 0.46% | | | PL2602 | 5,837 | -0.12% | 5,857 | 0.34 ...