Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price continues to decline, driven by reduced safe-haven demand due to optimistic trade sentiments and a stronger US dollar, with significant market movements observed in recent trading sessions [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trade Developments - Optimism in trade negotiations has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, as the US has postponed tariff implementation on Japan, South Korea, and 14 other countries until August 1, allowing for potential negotiations [3]. - Geopolitical risks have also eased, with the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal levels, further boosting global risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has strengthened, reaching 97.660, which directly pressures gold prices as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with concerns about delayed interest rate cuts growing, particularly after mixed employment data [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices have breached the critical psychological level of $3,300, entering a technical support zone between $3,280 and $3,290, with potential for further declines if this support fails [7]. - The recent net reduction of 12 tons in global gold ETFs indicates that institutional investors are taking profits amid easing trade tensions, contributing to increased market selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Investor sentiment is notably divided, with retail investors buying on dips while institutional investors are establishing short positions in the futures market, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, with trade optimism and a strong dollar exerting short-term pressure, while central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks provide long-term support [10].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are stabilizing around $36.70, remaining near a 13-year high amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver is trading within a range of $35.50 to $37.30, with the 20-day moving average at $36.42 acting as immediate support [3][5]. - The recent announcement by Trump imposing a 25% tariff on 14 countries, including major trading partners like Japan and South Korea, has heightened trade tensions [2][3]. - The extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 provides more negotiation time but keeps trade tensions elevated [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have been consolidating for the past four weeks, reflecting a cautious stance among traders following a strong rebound in early June [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, although a clear directional trigger is needed [5]. - Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, indicating moderate buying interest without signs of being overbought [5]. Group 3: Price Levels - A daily close above $37.30 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for prices to reach $38.00 and $39.00 in the short term [6]. - The first support level is at approximately $36.42, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; a break below this level could expose the lower end at around $35.72 [6]. - If the support at $36.42 fails, the next downside target would be $34.50, indicating a deeper corrective move [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently stabilizing above the $3,330 mark, following a fluctuation where prices initially fell and then rose due to increased safe-haven demand triggered by U.S. tariffs on Japan and South Korea [1] - The U.S. is set to impose higher tariffs on multiple countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate, effective August 1 [2] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with current resistance levels at $3,350, $3,360, and $3,380, while support levels are at $3,300, $3,280, and $3,260 [3] Group 2 - The short-term trend for gold is likely to remain weak, with the price facing pressure around the $3,340 level, suggesting potential adjustments in the near term [3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the strong U.S. dollar, which is limiting the extent of gold price rebounds despite rising geopolitical tensions [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 8, 2025 - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Finance Team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of the $3.4 trillion Big Beauty Act by the US Congress and better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data in the US have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushed up the US dollar index, and pressured precious metal prices. However, Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. Although gold's short - term trend may be weak, its medium - term upward trend remains intact [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the uncertainties of Trump's new policy, along with weak global economic growth and geopolitical risks, will continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market for gold. But high price levels also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The US Congress passing the Big Beauty Act and strong non - farm payrolls data have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushing up the US dollar index and causing the London gold price to correct to around $3305 per ounce during the Asian session on the 7th. It may continue to be weak in the short term [4]. - Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, but its medium - term upward trend is good. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to China's June financial data, the Fed's meeting minutes, and international trade situations [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Weakening trade situation concerns and a strong stock market rebound have reduced gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but other factors continue to support the price. South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks provide short - term upward momentum [5]. - In early June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets, causing London silver to soar from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six trading days [5]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and Trump's new policy uncertainties will support gold's long - and medium - term bull markets. However, high price levels mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 777.50 | 777.59 | 769.92 | 771.87 | - 0.72% | 399,160 | - 10,573 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,950 | 8,981 | 8,873 | 8,902 | - 0.53% | 898,973 | - 17,088 | | Gold T + D | 771.57 | 772.50 | 765.39 | 767.15 | - 0.57% | 228,910 | 8,254 | | Silver T + D | 8,885 | 8,935 | 8,830 | 8,858 | - 0.30% | 3,338,736 | 79,962 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [7][9][11][13][15][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US is close to reaching several trade agreements before the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs, and the Trump administration will notify 100 small countries of higher tariffs. Trump has signed letters to 12 countries regarding different tariff levels, which will be sent on Monday [17]. - China's Ministry of Finance announced that starting from July 6, EU enterprises (excluding European - funded enterprises in China) will be excluded from participating in government procurement of medical devices with a budget of over 45 million yuan. This is a counter - measure in response to the EU's restrictions on Chinese enterprises [17]. - OPEC + agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating the production increase pace. Since April, OPEC + has increased production by 1.918 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of only 280,000 barrels per day in the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut [18].

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

Group 1: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 54.27% as of July 5, making it the standout performer in the precious metals sector, often referred to as the "gold alternative" [1] - In contrast, gold prices have seen a more modest increase of 27.16% year-to-date, with the current price at $3,336.94 per ounce, down 4.7% from a peak of $3,500.12 [1] - The rise in platinum prices is attributed to both supply constraints and increased demand, particularly as platinum substitutes gold in investment and jewelry sectors due to gold's high prices [1] Group 2: Gold Price Outlook - There is a divergence in short-term outlook for gold prices, with some analysts predicting a potential decline due to improved global economic prospects and reduced geopolitical tensions [2] - Citibank forecasts that gold prices may drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, citing that the market has already priced in interest rate cuts [2] - Despite short-term concerns, long-term projections remain optimistic, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 by mid-2026 [3] Group 3: Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council reported a decline in physical gold demand in China, with a 35% decrease in gold outflows from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in May [4] - Global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion in May, marking the first monthly outflow since November of the previous year, leading to a 1% decrease in total assets under management [4] - Despite these challenges, the World Gold Council believes that gold may still attract investors seeking alternative safe-haven assets, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for gold demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and political uncertainties from the French elections are driving up global geopolitical risk premiums, which supports the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Geopolitical Factors - The Israel-Lebanon tensions and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict have not shown signs of easing, contributing to market anxiety [1] - Political uncertainty from the French parliamentary elections is putting pressure on European markets, further increasing the appeal of gold [1] Central Bank Actions - Strong demand for gold from global central banks, especially in emerging markets, is a long-term structural factor supporting gold prices [1] - The motivations for central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks are expected to persist in the medium to long term [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the market still anticipates potential interest rate cuts within the year, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - A clear dovish signal from the Federal Reserve could act as a catalyst for gold price breakthroughs [2] Technical Analysis - The key resistance level for gold is between $2400 and $2450 per ounce, which has been tested multiple times without a successful breakthrough [3] - Strong support levels are identified at $2300 per ounce and between $2270-$2250 per ounce, indicating a bullish overall technical structure as long as prices remain above $2300 [3] - Monitoring momentum indicators like RSI and MACD near resistance levels is crucial to identify potential short-term pullback risks [3] Trading Insights - Analysts suggest that the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive due to multiple supportive factors, despite facing strong resistance in the historical high range [3] - A strategy of waiting for gold to effectively break and stabilize above $2450 could signal a strong bullish trend, with targets set at $2500 and above [3] - If gold encounters resistance again in the $2400-$2450 range, opportunities for buying near the $2300-$2350 support area should be considered, with appropriate stop-loss measures [3] Risk Management - The volatility near historical highs may increase, necessitating strict stop-loss settings and position control [4] - The combination of geopolitical risks, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and expectations for global monetary policy easing provides solid support for gold prices [4] - A breakthrough above the $2450 resistance could initiate a new upward trend, with $2500 as the next significant target [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the US fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives have boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The overnight London gold rebounded to around $3360 per ounce, and silver with stronger industrial attributes outperformed gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's new policies, and its medium - term upward trend remains good, but volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The international trade situation and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but factors such as Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but the high price also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. It is recommended to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The weakening of the US ADP private - sector employment in June and the setback of the fiscal expansion bill in the House of Representatives boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold rebounded, and silver outperformed gold due to the marginal easing of Sino - US trade and the strong performance of the Chinese stock market. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to PMI data in June from China, the US, and Europe, US non - farm payrolls in June, central bank officials' statements, and the progress of the US fiscal bill [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the demand for gold, but Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and geopolitical risks support the price. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. The long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold are supported, but volatility has increased, and attention should be paid to US inflation pressure in the third quarter. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 781.64, up 0.67%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8973, up 2.28%; Gold T + D closed at 775.83, up 0.71%; Silver T + D closed at 8929, up 2.20% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Trade Policy**: The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, and goods transshipped through Vietnam from third countries will face a 40% tariff, while Vietnam will impose zero tariffs on US products. The US has removed restrictions on ethane exports to China, indicating that the Sino - US trade truce is on track [17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The House Republicans' efforts to pass Trump's large - scale tax - cut and spending bill have encountered difficulties, and it is unlikely to be passed before July 4 [17]. - **Employment Data**: In June, US private - sector employment decreased by 33,000, the first decrease since March 2023, but the low lay - off rate continued to support the job market as the number of lay - offs in June decreased by 49% compared to the previous month [18].