美联储的柯林斯表示，预计今年晚些时候降息是合适的，但很大程度上取决于关税。 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.43%, the Dow Jones by 1.19%, and the S&P 500 by 1.11%, marking new closing highs since early March and late February respectively [5][6] - Chinese concept stocks also surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 3.31%, the largest single-day gain since May 13 [5] - The market sentiment was positively influenced by a rebound in the Hong Kong technology sector, which contributed to the overall bullish atmosphere [5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks were perceived as hawkish, indicating a reluctance to lower interest rates unless inflation is controlled, despite acknowledging potential price increases due to tariffs starting in June [6][7] - The A-share market also saw a rise, reaching 3400 points, with a consistent bullish outlook maintained despite previous dips below 3300 [8][9] - The government issued a document aimed at boosting consumption and financial support, which was seen as a small positive signal rather than a major catalyst for market movement [11][12] Group 3 - The 中证A500 index is highlighted as a balanced investment tool, featuring a mix of traditional and emerging industries, and has outperformed the 沪深300 index since its launch [13] - The banking sector has been a strong performer, with recommendations made for investors to consider this sector for potential gains [13][14] - The overall market environment suggests that while significant bullish trends are present, investors should be cautious about adding to positions at higher levels, particularly above 3400 points for A-shares [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Jerome Powell's testimony and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, raising questions about the potential resurgence of gold bulls [1] Group 1 - Powell's testimony indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later this year [1] - Market analysts are speculating on the implications of potential rate cuts for gold prices, which could benefit gold bulls [1] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators that could influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

美国商务部长卢特尼克：降息，然后赤字将减少，经济将飙升。 ...

新华财经北京6月25日电近期市场情绪保持温和乐观，在风险偏好的主导下，美元作为避险资产持续走 软，进而推动欧元上行。然而，分析人士提醒需警惕中东地缘政治的突变性风险。尽管目前停火局势得 以维持，这或许会重新点燃市场的避险需求，从而压制欧元的走势。 美联储主席鲍威尔将在格林尼治时间14:00（可能是美国东部时间上午9:00或10:00，具体取决于是否为 夏令时）发表更多关于货币政策的证词。他的讲话可能会对美元的价值产生影响，并间接影响澳元兑美 元的汇率。 美联储未来利率决策会议：美联储第三季度的利率决策会议分别定于7月30日和9月17日举行。市场普遍 预期美联储将在9月份的会议上决定降息。 欧元 在欧洲交易时段，欧元徘徊于1.16附近，逼近自2021年11月以来的最高点1.1641。美元持续承压，而欧 元则维持在相对高位。原油价格的回调对欧元形成了支撑，原因在于较低的能源价格有助于缓解欧元区 的通胀压力，从而增强欧元的基本面韧性。此外，德国6月IFO商业景气指数略超预期，进一步巩固了 市场对欧元区经济稳定的信心。 英镑 欧洲交易时段，英镑兑美元盘中冲高至1.3633后回落。市场焦点再次聚焦于货币政策。 英国央行 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 New Industria 高利率成本加重美国基础设施建设负担。美国发电及输配电建设项目的融资渠道包括联邦项目（通过 IRA 和 IIJA，每 个项目 20-30 亿美元）、公用事业费率支付者模式（仅输电项目每年就达 400 亿美元）、私人投资（公私合作项目、 ITP 等）以及州政府主导的资金支持。联邦政府的资金支持在建设中至关重要，但仍然需要私人资本和州政府作为补 充，在建设过程中，许可延迟和成本分摊纠纷等事件都会影响建设进度，如冗长的审批流程（7-12 年）导致资金锁 定期延长，增加了融资成本，利率走低可缓解政府支出及项目融资的压力，利于加快项目的建设。 数据中心建设支出中融资比例较高，降息有利于项目加快落地。美国超大规模 AI 数据中心项目带动大量资本需求， 数据中心开发融资通常涉及覆盖项目成本 65%-80%的贷款，资金来源主要包括主流贷款机构、房地产投资银行、私 募信贷基金以及专注于基础设施的贷款机构等，常见融资利率区间因贷款机构类型和融资结构而异，项目融资一般 约为基准利率加上 3.25%-3.50%利差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].

整体来看，以伊战争暂时停火缓和了市场多数风险情绪，短期或令金价面临压力，但特朗普关税政策及其对美联储在内的广泛影响仍增加市场未来不确定 性。交易者本周继续关注地缘局势动态，此外，留意鲍威尔在参议院委员会就半年度货币政策报告作证词陈述及周五PCE数据 技术面： 基本面： 周三（6月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金反弹回吐隔夜部分跌幅，但本周突破下行后金价仍受此承压，盘中最高测试3335美元附近后徘徊，目前暂交投于3327 美元附近。金价周二下跌 2%，触及两周多以来最低，此前伊朗和以色列宣布停火，削弱了对黄金的避险需求，美联储主席鲍威尔对降息的谨慎态度，也令 黄金多头失望。现货黄金周二盘中一度跌逾2%，最低曾触及3295.38美元/盎司，为6月9日以来新低，收报3322.93美元/盎司。金价下跌的直接导火索是以色 列和伊朗宣布停火的消息。这一消息令市场避险情绪迅速降温，黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力随之减弱。 过去几周，以色列与伊朗之间的军事对抗一度推高了黄金的避险买盘，但随着停火协议的达成，市场迅速转向风险偏好模式，全球股市应声上涨，美元则出 现回落。这种市场情绪的转变直接导致了黄金价格的下滑。尽管停火协议暂时平息了 ...

泰国央行：若经济增长低于预期，将考虑降息。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, as they are waiting for the economy to respond to various new policies, including trade policies [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since the beginning of the year, with future monetary policy decisions dependent on evolving data and risk assessments [1][2] - U.S. stock markets reacted positively to Powell's remarks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.19%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.11%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.43% on the same day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April, with the core PCE price index also increasing by 0.1%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [2] - Powell noted that consumer spending growth has slowed, and there is increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, particularly due to trade policy concerns [2] - Powell indicated that inflation pressures from tariffs are expected to become more apparent starting in June, and the Fed requires more time to assess the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation before considering rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates has led to dissatisfaction from President Trump, who has repeatedly called for rate cuts, arguing that high rates increase government borrowing costs [3] - The Fed's economic projections suggest a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but there is significant divergence among policymakers regarding the balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [3][4] Group 4 - Internal disagreements within the Fed regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy have emerged, with some officials supporting potential rate cuts while others predict economic slowdown and rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - New York Fed President John Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to around 1% this year, with unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation potentially reaching 3% before gradually returning to the 2% target [4] Group 5 - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a prediction of two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [5] - Barclays Bank's analysis indicates that the Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on the trajectory of tariff policies, with potential rate cuts varying based on inflation trends and economic conditions [5]