Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains strong around 1.3530 following a dovish signal from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which has boosted investor risk appetite [1][2][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated a willingness to adjust the restrictive monetary policy stance due to changing risk balances and the current restrictive nature of monetary policy [3] - He warned of rising downside risks in the labor market, which could necessitate policy adjustments [3] - Powell downplayed the long-term inflation risks posed by tariffs, suggesting that the likelihood of sustained inflation due to tariffs is low given labor market challenges [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The dovish tone from Powell has pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yields, with the DXY index struggling around 97.60, close to a four-week low, and the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.27% [2] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Fed [4] Group 3: UK Economic Challenges - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted severe challenges facing the UK economy, including a declining labor participation rate since the COVID-19 pandemic, which has weakened potential economic growth [5] - Bailey warned that labor market issues are likely to persist due to ongoing demographic trends, such as an aging population [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of GBP/USD - The GBP/USD exchange rate has formed an "inverse head and shoulders" pattern, indicating a bullish reversal signal, with the neckline around 1.3580 [7] - The short-term trend for GBP/USD has turned bullish as it trades above the 20-day EMA, currently at approximately 1.3466 [7] - Key support is identified at the August 11 low of 1.3400, while resistance is noted near the July 1 high of 1.3790 [7]

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 亚市早盘，黄金震荡微跌，目前交投于3366美元附近。上周五金价大涨1%，盘中一度创两周新高至3378.69美元，收报3371.78美元，因美联储主席鲍威尔在 杰克森霍尔年度央行研讨会上的讲话，如同一场及时雨，浇灭了市场对通胀的担忧，同时点燃了投资者对9月降息的热切期待。这不仅推动金价强势反弹， 更让美元汇率大幅下挫，黄金市场迎来新一轮看涨浪潮。 本周重点关注：纽约联储主席威廉姆斯等美联储官员讲话、美国7月耐用品订单月率初值、美国8月谘商会消费者信心指数、美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率 修正值、美国截至8月23日当周初请失业金人数和美国7月PCE数据。 【8.25黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健回落3356-3359美元附近做多单，止损3351美元，止盈看3375-3380美元 2，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上周五，黄金亚欧盘震荡下跌，美盘跌至3321.4美元触底反弹，晚间10点，鲍威尔讲话后，黄金大幅上涨，最高涨至3378.7美元，日线收大阳线，且站上 了中轨，KDJ指标金叉，附图拐头向上，MACD指标快慢线在0轴附近金叉，绿色空头动能缩量，走势 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.4% to 42,807.82 points, led by gains in metal and machinery stocks [1] - The South Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 1.3% to 3,209.86 points, following the upward trend in US stocks [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that a tight labor market will continue to exert upward pressure on wages, suggesting a potential stabilization of inflation [1] Group 2 - Ueda's comments may fuel speculation of another interest rate hike this year, although he did not directly address monetary policy [1] - Nomura's global market research team noted that Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks could provide more downward space for the USD/JPY exchange rate, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [1] - Nomura is confident in shorting the USD/JPY trade, targeting 142.00 yen per dollar by the end of October [1] Group 3 - The South Korean won weakened, and the yield on South Korean benchmark bonds fell [1] - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time in its upcoming policy meeting [1] - A survey indicated that 20 economists expect rates to remain unchanged, while 7 predict a rate cut [1]

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals weekly report from Caida Futures, dated August 25, 2025, focusing on gold price trends and related influencing factors [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - With the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. The complex situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's monetary policy adjustment are the main factors affecting gold prices [1][4][7] Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, gold prices first declined and then rose. The New York gold price closed at $3,417 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price closed at 781.12 yuan per gram [1] Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Although Trump has met with leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, the Russia - Ukraine conflict has actually intensified due to large differences between the two sides on issues such as territory, and the future development remains uncertain [2] Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was interpreted as dovish, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September to 89% from 75% the previous day, and the expected cumulative rate - cut amplitude this year has also increased to about 58 basis points [4] - Trump has pressured Powell and replaced Fed governors. The voices within the Fed supporting rate cuts have increased. After the weakening of employment data, a preventive rate cut is reasonable, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is increasing [6][7] Market Impact - The US dollar index fell to around 97.70 last Friday. Gold prices rebounded significantly due to positive news. In the short - term, gold prices need consolidation, and in the medium - term, they are expected to strengthen under the background of the Fed's new rate - cut cycle [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the balance of risks facing the US economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the job market as both supply and demand are slowing [3] - The report highlights that the probability of a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with market expectations rising from 75% to 90% following Powell's speech [3] - The future path of interest rate cuts remains dependent on economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and consumption trends [3] Group 2 - The report anticipates that inflation may rebound in August, and a decrease in immigrant labor could offset the impact of slowing labor demand on the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low [3] - If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate in August, the Federal Reserve may opt for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation rises more, the Fed may delay until October [3] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December and that there is significant uncertainty regarding the timing of future cuts next year, influenced by both economic dynamics and the White House's pressure on the Fed [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts during the Jackson Hole global central banking conference [1] - The S&P 500 index experienced a five-day decline but rebounded with a 2.1% increase on Friday, now just 0.8% away from its historical high [3] - Despite the upcoming rate cuts providing valuation support for growth stocks, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is 16% higher than its 10-year average [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's earnings report is considered a "market barometer" due to its unique industry position, with 40% of its revenue coming from major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [3] - There are conflicting market signals, with Microsoft Azure's cloud revenue growing 19% year-over-year and Google's cloud revenue increasing by 31%, indicating expanding enterprise AI demand [3] - Conversely, Meta's capital expenditure guidance was raised less than market expectations, raising concerns about AI investment returns [3] Group 3 - Nvidia's stock price formed a typical "ascending triangle" pattern after reaching a historical high in early August, with a potential breakout above $180 or a risk of falling below the $170 support level [4] - The upcoming release of the July core PCE price index, favored by the Federal Reserve as an inflation indicator, is highly anticipated; a continued moderate decline could reinforce rate cut expectations and benefit tech stocks [4] - The S&P 500 index's 80% gain this year has been driven largely by seven tech giants, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [4] - A warning was issued regarding the risks of the market heavily relying on a few companies' earnings reports, as any minor disappointment could trigger a chain reaction [4]

就在上周五（8月22日），美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，彻底点燃了全球市 场的狂欢按钮——道琼斯工业指数单日飙升2.2%创下历史新高，标普500指数上涨1.52%，纳斯达克综 合指数也大涨1.88%，连一向对政策敏感的2年期美债收益率都直线跳水近10个基点至3.69%，美元指数 更是单日下挫0.94%！ 这一切的引爆点，正是鲍威尔那句"风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策立场"的表态。要知道，就在讲话 前一天（8月21日），美股还在五连跌的阴霾里——标普500指数连跌五天，纳指三连跌，市场都在屏息 等待这场"央行界春晚"的信号。结果话音刚落，利率期货市场瞬间把9月降息25个基点的概率从75%飙 升到了91.3%，几乎笃定"降息大局已定"。 今天我们就来拆解这场狂欢背后的关键问题： 1. 鲍威尔的讲话究竟释放了哪些"鸽派密码"？ 2. 为什么市场会如此激进地押注9月降息？ 3. 当美股、债市、黄金集体上涨的狂欢过后，又有哪些被忽略的风险信号？ 毕竟，从历史规律看，美联储政策转向从来不是单向直线——这次"风险平衡的转变"，真的会如市场所 愿开启降息周期吗？狂欢之下，或许藏着更值得警惕的答案。 鲍威尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - Powell's dovish remarks are expected to support Asian stock and currency markets, with potential for a strong start in the upcoming week [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets are likely to be buoyed by increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting [1] - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high for the year, influenced by Powell's comments [1] - Emerging market currencies ended a six-day decline due to a substantial depreciation of the US dollar following Powell's statements [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Gerald Gan from Reed Capital suggests that if the trend of increasing rate cut expectations continues, Asian markets will be positively impacted, with controlled yen appreciation not severely affecting Japanese risk assets [1] - Priyanka Kishore from Asia Decoded notes that while a weaker dollar may temporarily boost Asian currencies, sustained gains depend on the Fed committing to more extensive easing policies [1] - Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets indicates that Powell's signals could help mend underlying market vulnerabilities, particularly in tech-heavy markets like Japan and Taiwan, where sentiment is fragile [1] - Jamie Halse from Senjin Capital believes that lower US rates may lead to capital flowing out of the US in search of higher returns, benefiting other regions [1] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - Anna Wu from VanEck Associates highlights that Powell's moderate stance has alleviated barriers to a September rate cut, positively affecting stock and short-term bond markets [2] - Tim Waterer from KCM Trade emphasizes that the prospect of declining US rates may encourage investors to seek returns elsewhere, which is favorable for Asian economies [2] - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market points out that while Powell's comments suggest a possible rate cut, they are contingent on data, and the dollar-yen exchange rate may not break its volatility range [2] - Kazuya Fujiwara from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities notes that Japanese government bond prices may stabilize due to US rate declines, but upside potential is limited due to expectations of BOJ rate hikes [2] - Yusuke Matsuo from Mizuho Securities states that the BOJ is considering rate hikes while the Fed is contemplating cuts, leading to a divergence in policy directions [2]

Market Overview - A-shares surged on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to 3,825 points, marking a ten-year high[16] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.93% and 2.71%, respectively, reflecting strong market sentiment[12] - U.S. stocks saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.89% to 45,631 points, marking a new high[10] Monetary Policy Insights - Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, raising market expectations for three rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points[6] - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.9% to 97.72[28][32] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell nearly 10 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.70% and the 10-year yield at 4.25%[32] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 10 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with consumer discretionary leading gains at 3.18%[10] - In A-shares, the technology sector saw a significant increase of 5.6%, driven by semiconductor stocks[17] Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices rose by 1.1% to $3,374.4 per ounce, supported by rate cut expectations[28] - The price of crude oil increased slightly, with WTI crude at $63.66 per barrel, reflecting Powell's dovish stance[28] Individual Stock Highlights - Kingsoft Cloud reported Q2 2025 revenue of 2.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, with AI revenue growing over 120%[9] - Walmart's Q2 revenue reached $64.3 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, driven by e-commerce and digital expansion[9]

Macro Commentary - The speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank conference was more dovish than expected, interpreted by the market as a signal for a potential rate cut in September. However, two regional Fed presidents later tempered this optimism, indicating that the decision would depend on economic data [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to rebound in August, with a potential impact on the unemployment rate due to a decrease in immigrant labor. If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate, a rate cut in September is likely; otherwise, it may be postponed to October [2][4]. - The Fed is anticipated to cut rates again in December and potentially two more times in the following year [2][4]. Company Analysis Bilibili (BILI US) - Bilibili reported Q2 2025 earnings with total revenue of RMB 7.34 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, meeting expectations. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 562 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 8% due to better-than-expected control of sales expenses [5]. - For Q3 2025, revenue growth is expected to slow to 4% year-on-year, primarily due to high base pressure from mobile gaming. However, advertising and value-added services are projected to remain resilient [5]. Weishijia (856 HK) - Weishijia's H1 2025 revenue grew by 14% to HKD 45.5 billion, driven by strong demand for AI computing, with cloud revenue increasing by 68% year-on-year. Net profit rose by 36% to HKD 649 million [5]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 14.2, reflecting the increased contribution from AI-related business [5]. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) - CSPC reported H1 2025 total revenue of RMB 13.3 billion, with core revenue declining by 25% year-on-year. The management expects a rebound in product sales in H2 2025, with at least 5% quarter-on-quarter growth anticipated [6][7]. - The company has completed six external licensing deals since late 2024 and expects to finalize two more significant deals in H2 2025, each exceeding USD 5 billion [7][9]. Li Ning (2331 HK) - Li Ning's revenue for H1 2025 was RMB 14.8 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, slightly above expectations. However, net profit fell by 11% to RMB 1.74 billion, reflecting challenges in retail sales and increased discounts [11][13]. - The company maintains its FY 2025 guidance, expecting stable sales growth and high single-digit net profit margins, despite pressures from inventory and promotional costs [10][11]. Binjiang Service (3316 HK) - Binjiang Service reported a 12.2% increase in net profit for H1 2025, with total revenue up 22.7%. The basic property management segment showed strong growth, benefiting from improved collection rates and property fee increases [14][16]. - The company aims to achieve a 70% dividend payout ratio and plans to pursue inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect by FY 2026 [16]. Zhaosheng Microelectronics (300782 CH) - Zhaosheng Microelectronics reported Q2 2025 revenue of RMB 948 million, a 25% quarter-on-quarter increase but a 13% year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing weak demand and competitive pressures [17]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downwards for 2025 and 2026 due to persistent pricing pressures and lower-than-expected demand [17].