地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 期市综述 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 19 日 商品表现 截止 12 月 19 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂、PX、PTA、集运欧 线、沪镍涨超 3%，不锈钢（SS）、短纤、沪锡涨超 2%；跌幅方面，塑料、氧化 铝、菜油、玻璃跌超 2%，沥青、燃料油跌超 1%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved down to around 15,190 yuan/ton, closing 1.40% lower at 15,190 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 35 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,176 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,144 yuan/ton, closing 1.10% lower at 2,148 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Due to the still large supply pressure of domestic methanol, the continued rise of methanol futures was blocked, and it started a volatile consolidation trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 430.3 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 424.8 yuan/barrel, closing 0.40% lower at 426.6 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, but the hidden danger of oversupply still exists. In the short term, crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving the capacity utilization rate. However, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and steadily this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 68 [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average of 60,175 contracts in October. On the other hand, as of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 15,190 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,145 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,148 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 389.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | 426.6 yuan/barrel | - 2.8 yuan/barrel | - 37.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][21][23][26]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report offers charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][47][49][51][53].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约1.19%。 美棉市场 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，11月27日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增13.59万包，较前周减少8%，较前四周均值减少23%。2025/26年 度美国陆地棉出口装运量12.21万包，较前周增加1%，较前4周平均水平减少5%。 当周美国棉花出口签约量减少、装运量环比小增。国内市场：供应端，当前全国棉 花公检量已超550万吨，预计商业库存加速增长。另外，11月棉花进口量环比小幅增 加，预计进口港口库存维持增长趋势，据海关统计，2025年11月我国棉花进口总量 约12万吨，环比增加3万吨，同比增幅9.4%。需求端，下游纺企旺季采购结束，纺 企淡季特征逐渐现象，市场出货速度偏慢，预计短期棉价震荡为主。 3 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The aluminum oxide market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract for January 2601 rising to 2558 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan or 0.95% [1] - The total trading volume for 12 contracts was 372,105 lots, a decrease of 488,798 lots or 30.16% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,394 tons to 24.6 million tons, providing some support for aluminum oxide prices [3] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - In South China, aluminum oxide prices remained stable at 2810-2860 yuan per ton, while East China saw a slight decrease of 10 yuan to 2730-2770 yuan per ton [1] - Southwest China reported prices between 2820-2860 yuan per ton, down by 5 yuan, and Northwest China prices remained unchanged at 2950-2990 yuan per ton [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's bauxite shipments have increased, weakening cost support for aluminum oxide [3] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity reached 11,462 million tons, with operational capacity at 9,590 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons [3] - The overall market sentiment remains weak due to high inventory levels and limited demand from downstream purchasing, leading to a subdued trading atmosphere [3] Group 4: Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm employment growth exceeded expectations in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, influencing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [2] - The Central Economic Work Conference in China emphasized expanding domestic demand as a primary task for the coming year, boosting market sentiment and supporting futures markets [2]

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 730 | 835 | -105 | -12.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差 (SI4210基准) | 380 | 485 | -105 | -21.65% | 元/吨 | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1080 | 1185 | -105 | -8.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合钩 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 点评 18 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8645 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.59%，持仓 减仓 3030 手至 20.78 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 205 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 59300 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.6%，持仓 减仓 13608 手至 13.99 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水收至 6900 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏 拉的比较长，减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。 当前成交集中在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅自身缺乏涨势，短期受 多晶硅带涨。晶硅现货过剩和仓单短缺结构性矛盾下，厂家大幅提升现货 报价，与部分咨询网站坚持稳价相悖。日内投机性持仓开始降低，部分多 头选择获利离场，仍无新注册仓单。当前期现运行逻辑仍有分歧，投资者 谨慎盲目追涨，建议跟 ...

铝合金价格方面：2025-12-18保太民用生铝采购价格16500元/吨，机械生铝采购价格16800元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价21100元/吨，价格环比昨日变化0元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 消费存韧性，现货贴水受贸易行为承压 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-140元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21620元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-60元/吨至-250元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21650元/吨，较上一交易日变化10元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-220元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-18日沪铝主力合约开于21970元/吨，收于21955元/吨，较上一交易日变化55元/吨，最 高价达22100元/吨，最低价达到21880元/吨。全天交易日成交188444手，全天交易日持仓294165手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-18，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存57.8万吨，较上一期变化-1.8万吨，仓单库存76212 吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-19 市场热情有所平复，多晶硅震荡回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-18，工业硅期货主力合约2605开于8570元/吨，最后收于8645元/吨，较前一日结算变化（135）元/吨，变 化（1.59）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓207780手，2025-12-17仓单总数为8815手，较前一日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。本周期货价格震荡偏强修复，但部分硅企报价出货意向仍 不强烈，下游用户以消化低价库存为主，市场成交量较上周转淡。供应端北方部分硅企有减产意向，目前减产尚 未落地开工率保持稳定，关注后续开工变化。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅周度排产较上周小幅波动， 12月上旬单体厂陆续有生产降幅，排产较 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal, focus on the opportunity to go long on the left side at low prices, and avoid chasing up [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals remain weak, and there is still insufficient upward drive in the market [1] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis - On December 18th, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 2,952 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous settlement price; the持仓 was 224,692 lots, down 10,773 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 410,415 lots, down 93,619 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,830 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China, 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton [2] - Although the asphalt market rebounded sharply the day before due to the fermentation of geopolitical concerns, the actual fundamentals remain weak, and the raw material supply is currently relatively abundant, so the upward drive in the market is limited. In the spot market, the asphalt spot price in Shandong rose slightly yesterday, while that in South China fell significantly, and the asphalt spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. Although some local refineries in Shandong limited or stopped shipments yesterday, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of spot market resources and a narrow increase in the regional asphalt spot price, the significant price cuts by major refineries in the southern region dampened the sentiment in the asphalt spot market and suppressed the market [2] Group 4: Summary of Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal, focus on the opportunity to go long on the left side at low prices, and avoid chasing up [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 5: Summary of Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy-traffic asphalt in different regions, the closing prices of asphalt futures indices and contracts, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields, and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [4]