新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 矿山干扰消息频传，碳酸锂接近涨停 市场分析 2025-12-17，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于108620元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.61%。当日 成交量为1158611手，持仓量为668589手，前一交易日持仓量666027手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-11010元 /吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化350手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94600-99500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1200元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价93300-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1330美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 近期碳酸锂价格表现强势，昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约接近涨停，主要是受到矿端干扰消息影响。继宁德时代枧下 窝矿被关停后，江西宜春自然资源局发布的关于注销27个采矿权的公示。该公示引发了市场对锂资源供应的担忧， 但值得注意的是，今日价格异常上涨主要反映了情绪面的波动，与行业基本面关联较弱。此外，社会库存延续下 降趋势，供应紧张局面未改，也在一定程度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but some varieties are expected to decline after completion of delivery. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 45.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 40,173 lots, a decrease of 506 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 26,930 lots, a decrease of 2,802 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotation discount of suppliers continued to narrow, quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters supported prices for shipment, with quotations at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In Tianjin, the quotations of suppliers varied greatly. Some actively shipped at the end of the year with large discounts, while others had firm quotations due to limited inventory. In Yunnan, suppliers held back from selling and waited and watched, with a small amount of transactions at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The lead futures fluctuated weakly, smelters continued to hold back from selling and wait and watch, downstream rigid - demand procurement still picked up goods from nearby warehouses, and the overall spot market transactions of scattered orders were still relatively light [2] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 22,000 tons, a change of 1,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of December 17, the LME lead inventory was 265,575 tons, a decrease of 2,875 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Adopt a cautious and bearish strategy. After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but after completion of delivery, some varieties are expected to decline. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and a relatively strong spot basis. The PTA device has been operating stably recently, and some polyester factories' phased replenishment has driven the spot basis to strengthen. The futures market fluctuates following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market was consolidating at a high level, and the spot basis further weakened. Affected by the news that a South China device will restart ahead of schedule, the ethylene glycol market weakened slightly. In the short - term, the ethylene glycol market is expected to be adjusted at a low level. Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA**: The spot price range was 4575 - 4635 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 13. The PTA factory inventory was 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position decreased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol price had a narrow - range adjustment. The spot basis further weakened, and the low - level spot transaction was around 01 contract discount of 35 yuan/ton. The inventory in East China was 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position increased. It is expected that the short - term market will be adjusted at a low level [7]. 3.3今日关注 - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - **MEG**: Attention should be paid to the cost side and device changes [7]. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, and the production and demand also changed accordingly. For example, in December 2025, the production capacity was 9472, and the production was 684 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024 to 2025, the ethylene glycol production, import, and demand also had corresponding changes. For example, in December 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 247 [12]. - **Price**: The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR Taiwan, China decreased by 13 dollars/ton to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The PTA factory inventory, ethylene glycol port inventory, and other inventories showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up**: The start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester in different periods from 2021 to 2025 showed different trends [53][57]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fees, ethylene glycol production profits, and polyester fiber production profits all changed from 2022 to 2025 [13][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced, with lithium carbonate and precious metals leading the gains [2][10][12][13] - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% YoY, while the revenue from the transfer of land - use rights dropped by 10.7% YoY [1][3][38][39][40] - The "lowest price online" requirement for merchants by platforms may constitute monopoly, and the Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 17, equity index futures and CGB rose; metal futures advanced. China's financial futures: IC rose by 2.0%, IM rose by 1.5%, TL rose by 0.6% [10][12] - In commodity futures, the top three gainers are lithium carbonate (up 7.6%, open interest up 0.4% MoM), platinum (up 7.0%, open interest up 26.3% MoM), and palladium (up 7.0%, open interest up 30.3% MoM). The top three decliners are rapeseed oil (down 1.7%, open interest up 5.1% MoM), ethenylbenzene (down 1.4%, open interest up 33.9% MoM), and No.2 Soybean (down 1.4%, open interest down 17.2% MoM) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise 3.1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On December 17th, lithium carbonate rose 7.6% to 108,620 yuan per ton [17][21] - The public notice of cancelling 27 mining rights in Yichun has a greater impact on market sentiment than substantive impact. Currently, lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand but may face marginal weakness. The resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine and off - season demand are key trading points. Short - term prices are expected to remain high, and January's production scheduling and Jianxiawo Mine's resumption news are key factors [18][19][20][21][22][23] 3.1.2.2 Platinum - On December 17th, platinum rose 7.0% to 527.55 yuan per gram [27][31] - U.S. non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data slightly lifted market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year, and tightening spot supply supports platinum prices. In the future, South Africa faces supply risks, and the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. Overall, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [28][29][30][31] 3.1.2.3 Palladium - On December 17th, palladium rose 7.0% to 455.15 yuan per gram [33][35] - Russian geopolitical tensions cause short - term supply tightness, while palladium faces significant structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term physical tightness and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support palladium prices [34][35] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - From January to November, China's national general public budget revenue reached 20.0516 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 0.8%. National tax revenue was 16.4814 trillion yuan, up 1.8% YoY; non - tax revenue was 3.5702 trillion yuan, down 3.7% YoY [38][40] - From January to November, national government - managed fund budget revenue was 4.0274 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 4.9%. Central government - managed fund budget revenue was 393.8 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 3.6336 trillion yuan, down 5.5% YoY. Revenue from the transfer of state - owned land - use rights was 2.9119 trillion yuan, a YoY drop of 10.7% [39][40] 3.2.2 Industry News - Platforms mandating merchants to offer the "lowest price online" may constitute abuse of dominant market position or monopoly agreement. The Anti - Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms (Draft for Public Comment) identifies 8 new types of monopoly risks [41][42][43] - From January to November, stamp duty revenue totaled 404.4 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 27%. Among this, securities transaction stamp duty reached 185.5 billion yuan, surging 70.7% YoY [43]

来源：金十数据 e field and the line of the mail the 金源期货:宜春采矿权注销消息引发多头情绪高涨,放量突破前高。但需警惕冲 高回落:注销矿权多为到期且非核心产能;基本面上需求走弱,储能排产停滞; 社会库存去化放缓甚至存隐性库存风险。年底资金回流压力下,不建议过度追 高。 | 今日热点资讯 广期所强化穿透式监管,严打违规行为,切实保障市场平稳运行。 监管 ae 印尼镍矿商协会:2026年镍矿石产量目标大幅下调至2.5亿吨(2025年为 3.79亿吨),意在防止镍价进一步下跌。 综合市场分析指出,今日市场情绪高涨,碳酸锂在"注销采矿权"消息刺激 热门品种机构观点 一、铂、钯期货主力合约：铂钯期货今日双双涨停，均创上市以来新高！ 多晶硅分会:12月产量预计仍在12万吨以内,西南枯水期减产限制了复 光伏 产增量。预计2025全年产量133万吨。 ■ 找钢网数据:全国建材周度产量增加2.87万吨,但社库和总库均出现超30 万吨的降幅,表需回升。 | 板块涨跌幅 工业品 新能源 n sa se + 4 4 % | 软商 | 油脂链 | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，玻璃期货夜盘涨幅扩大至3%，纯碱期货涨超2.3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - On December 17, the main continuous contract for alumina futures increased by 2.20%, reaching a price of 2606 RMB per ton [1] Group 1 - The alumina futures market experienced a notable price increase, indicating potential bullish sentiment among investors [1]

每经AI快讯，12月17日，沪锡期货主力连续合约涨2.52%，报333190元(人民币)/吨。 每经AI快讯，12月17日，沪锡期货主力连续合约涨2.52%，报333190元(人民币)/吨。 ...

| /// > 国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 纯苯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | РХ | ☆☆☆ | | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 短纤 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 甲醇 | なな女 | 尿素 | 女女女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 ...