Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Report Author: Wang Jing - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Market Summary - Overseas, Japan's interest rate hike was uneventful, and the competition for the Fed Chair heated up. The market showed a dull performance approaching the year - end. Investors were cautious, the VIX index declined slightly, and risk - assets were mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly fell, A - shares oscillated and pulled back, and the BDI index continued to decline. Commodities were under pressure with internal style transformation. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, oil prices remained weak, and the black series rebounded strongly [5][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded with short - term weakness and long - term strength. Stock indices oscillated and were mostly down, with the growth - style stocks underperforming value - style stocks, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising against the trend. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance. The weekly change of the Wind Commodity Index was 1.5%, with 5 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 5 falling. The black series was strong, with the coal, coke, steel, and ore and non - metallic building materials sectors rising over 4%. The chemical sector followed, while precious metals barely rose, and soft commodities were nearly flat. Other sectors fell, especially the oilseeds, grains, and agricultural products sectors. Non - ferrous metals turned down, and the energy sector continued to slump [5][14]. - In the futures market capital aspect, the overall capital of the commodity futures market slightly flowed out. The agricultural products and soft commodities sectors saw obvious capital inflows, while many sectors had capital outflows, with significant outflows in the non - metallic building materials, energy, and grain sectors [16]. 2. Volatility and Interest Rate Expectations - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly increased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a small upward volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index declined. By sector, the volatility of commodity futures sectors was mixed, with obvious volatility declines in the energy and oilseeds sectors and notable increases in the non - ferrous and soft commodities sectors [6][22]. - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in January was 75.2%, little changed from last week's 72.7%. The probability of a 25 - bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remained below 30%. The market expected 1 - 3 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. 3. Upcoming Events - Due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, macro - economic data is scarce this week. The focus will be on a small amount of US economic data, especially GDP data. The initial estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on December 23. Investors will assess the US economic performance and look for clues about the Fed's next rate - cut time. In addition, investors will seek guidance on the Bank of Japan's policy path from Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech on December 25 and the release of the meeting's opinion summary on December 29. The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and be closed on December 25 [7]. 4. Fed Chair Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the "insider" most likely to be nominated, is an economic policy "spokesperson" and political ally of Trump. He publicly supports rate cuts and has criticized the Fed's past policies [70]. - Kevin Warsh, the "returner" favored by Wall Street, has Fed experience and is strongly supported by the financial community. He has publicly advocated rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [71]. - Christopher Waller, the "dark horse" with solid policy experience, is a current Fed governor. He has rational and consistent policy discussions on rate cuts and has promoted conservative reforms within the Fed [72]. 5. Other Key Information - US inflation data for November was lower than expected, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.6%. Many economists were puzzled by this, and the data was affected by the government shutdown [77]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo's cautious remarks on policy prospects pressured the yen, and the lack of a clear future rate - hike schedule confused investors. The market expects the Bank of Japan's future tightening to be gradual [84]. - This week's key economic data and events include UK Q3 GDP final value, US Q3 GDP initial estimate, and speeches from central bank governors [90].

在地缘政治紧张局势不断升级，且市场普遍押注美国将进一步降息的双重推动下，黄金（GC=F）与白 银（SI=F）价格飙升至历史最高点，迎来四十多年来最佳年度表现。 黄金价格上涨逾 1.5%，突破 10 月创下的每盎司 4381 美元历史纪录；白银涨幅高达 3.4%，逼近每盎司 70 美元关口。两大贵金属延续涨势，年度表现有望创下 1979 年以来最强劲纪录。 此次贵金属价格走高，与交易者的降息预期密切相关 —— 市场预计美联储将在 2026 年两次降息，而美 国总统唐纳德・特朗普也在倡导宽松货币政策。对于本身不产生利息的贵金属而言，低利率环境通常会 形成强劲支撑。 地缘政治紧张局势的加剧，进一步提升了黄金白银的避险吸引力。美国加大了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁力 度，向尼古拉斯・马杜罗政府施压；与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海海域袭击了一艘俄罗斯 "影子舰 队" 所属的油轮。 今年以来，黄金价格已飙升近 70%，这背后得益于各国央行增持黄金，以及黄金 ETF（交易所交易基 金）资金流入规模扩大。特朗普政府大刀阔斧调整全球贸易政策，加之其威胁削弱美联储独立性的举 措，为今年早些时候贵金属的暴涨行情火上浇油。 投资者同样在黄金上 ...

12月22日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金震荡收涨，波幅相对前周有所收窄，并仍处于趋势线压力下方，暗 示仍有回落走低调整的风险，但目前走势仍处于5-10周均线上方，布林带仍倾向向上，基本面降息周期 也未结束，故此，短期虽有调整，但方向仍是看涨。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4299.43美元/盎司，并基本上每日都是震荡走盘，先行于周二录得当周低 点4271.65美元，之后回升走强，于周四录得当周高点4374.14美元，并再度陷入震荡，于周五收于 4337.90美元，周振幅102.49美元，收涨38.47美元，涨幅0.89%。 影响上，先是受到之前交易日的回撤压力，以及地缘局势缓和，加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞 特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松政策的预期前景，打压金价震荡走低录得当周低点； 之后受到支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售销售月率和美国11月失业率上升等，强化了美联储未来降息的预 期，推动金价止跌并反弹走强，但多头难以持稳，周尾再度陷入获利了结和震荡调整格局，最终震荡收 官。 展望本周周一（12月22日）：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线的 买盘推动；虽然美元指数早盘 ...

供需缺口是铂金价格大涨的重要支撑。全球铂金产量高度集中，约70%的铂金产自南非，不过该国矿山 因长期投资不足、电力供应短缺、基础设施老化以及极端天气影响，产量严重受限。世界铂金投资协会 (WPIC)的数据显示，2025年第一季度全球铂金总供应量为45.3吨，同比下降10%，预计2025年全年缺口 高达约20吨。 本轮铂金价格的史诗级上涨并非单一因素主导，而是工业需求爆发预期、供需缺口支撑与金融属性助推 的"三重共振"结果。 工业需求构成铂金价格大涨的核心基石。随着全球能源转型加速推进，氢能产业发展为铂金需求提供了 强大支撑。铂金作为质子交换膜电解槽和燃料电池的关键催化剂，在制氢、储氢和用氢全产业链中发挥 着不可替代的作用。随着各国氢能战略的落地实施，相关领域对铂金的需求呈现快速扩容态势。根据香 橙会研究院的预测，到2030年，中国氢能领域的铂族金属使用量将达到近8吨，其中铂仍然将是主要使 用材料。与此同时，汽车工业的持续复苏也为铂金需求提供了稳定支撑，燃油车催化剂铂载量的提升与 轻型车产量的回升共同推动了铂金工业需求的增长。 金融属性则起到了放大效应。在美联储降息预期升温、全球流动性宽松的背景下，黄金价格持续 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,970 yuan, reaching a high of 17,030 yuan and a low of 16,890 yuan, closing at 16,920 yuan, up 70 yuan or 0.42% [1] - The latest LME lead price reported at 1,978.5 USD, down 6 USD [1] - The average price for ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead was reported at 17,025 yuan, an increase of 75 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a weaker dollar, providing liquidity support for dollar-denominated commodities like lead [2] - LME inventory continues to decrease, with a weekly reduction of 3,500 tons, reinforcing bullish sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the global market [2] - Domestic macro sentiment is improving, but the impact on lead demand is undergoing structural changes, with traditional infrastructure support weakening due to capital flow towards debt reduction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is characterized by "internal tightness and external shortage," with supply facing rigid gaps due to raw material shortages and environmental production limits affecting domestic recycled lead [3] - While primary lead production is recovering, delivery brand output is tightening due to maintenance, and LME inventory outflows are exacerbating global supply tightness [3] - Demand shows structural weakness, with core support from seasonal replacement demand for automotive starter batteries, but electric bicycle battery demand is weak due to new standards and export barriers [3] Group 4: Spot Market and Price Forecast - The current lead spot market is in a weak balance supported by low inventory, with traders reluctant to sell, leading to increased spot premiums [4] - Short-term price trends are expected to show strong fluctuations, with lead prices likely to continue high-level oscillations in the near term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with London spot gold surpassing $4,410 per ounce, marking a nearly 68% increase for the year, driven by both traditional factors and new dynamics in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Analysts note that the weakening trend in U.S. economic data and concerns over the fiscal situation and independence of the Federal Reserve have contributed to the rising gold prices [4][5]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold and the de-dollarization efforts have not changed, providing a stable demand for gold [4][5]. Group 2: Performance of Precious Metals - The entire precious metals sector, including silver and platinum, has shown strong performance, with silver prices reaching $69 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 139% increase this year [6][7]. - Platinum prices have also surged, exceeding $2,000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, with a year-to-date increase of over 120% [6][7]. - The price increases are seen as a result of a broader market response to global macroeconomic shifts and industrial demand, rather than solely driven by safe-haven buying [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Industry experts maintain a bullish outlook on gold prices, with projections suggesting a target of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [8]. - The demand for precious metals is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and concerns over global debt issues, which are seen as structural problems that will not be resolved quickly [9]. - The article emphasizes that the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, supported by continued monetary easing and significant net purchases by central banks [8][9].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market saw a majority of gains on December 22, with the shipping index (European line) leading the rise with an increase of over 8% [1][2] - Precious metals such as palladium and platinum reached their daily limit with increases of 7.00% and 6.99% respectively, while silver rose over 6% [1][3] - The shipping index's strong performance was supported by market expectations for the upcoming peak season, despite uncertainties regarding shipping routes in the Red Sea and Suez Canal [2][3] Group 2 - The silver, platinum, and palladium markets have shown remarkable performance, with silver prices hitting historical highs and the three metals collectively surging on December 22 [3] - Supply constraints and macroeconomic easing policies are significant factors supporting the continued strength of precious metals [3] - The polyester chain commodities also experienced significant gains, with PTA rising over 4.5% and other related products increasing by more than 3% [4] Group 3 - In contrast, the plastic market faced its fifth consecutive day of decline, driven by a supply-demand imbalance and decreasing downstream operating rates [5] - The main contract for polysilicon also saw a drop of over 2%, attributed to weak terminal demand and high inventory levels [5]

文章还说，各国央行持续购买黄金以及黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也推高了黄金价格。彭 博社汇总的数据显示，黄金支持的ETF已连续五周出现资金流入。世界黄金协会的数据显示，除今年5 月外，这些基金的总持仓量今年每个月都在增长。 新华社纽约12月21日电美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格21日再创历史新高。其中，交投最活跃的2026 年2月黄金期价盘中突破每盎司4430美元。 来源：新华网 伦敦现货黄金价格当地时间22日突破每盎司4400美元关口，同创历史新高。 作者: 施春 彭博社文章分析认为，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄金价格飙升的主要原 因。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have significantly risen, with London gold surpassing $4,400 and New York futures exceeding $4,430, entering a new high-stakes trading phase [2] - Key factors supporting gold prices include weak employment and inflation data, which have increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next year [2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving funds into gold as a safe haven, while global central bank gold purchases and inflows into gold ETFs provide long-term support [2] Group 2 - Short-term factors that may suppress gold price increases include the risk of short-term chasing after consecutive gains, leading to potential profit-taking by some investors [2] - The possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates could prompt a global capital return, posing potential pressure on assets including gold [2] - The recommended trading strategy involves waiting for a price pullback to the $4,380-$4,360 support area before considering entry, with specific stop-loss levels set [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high, is driven by seasonal factors and a decline in liquidity as the year-end approaches, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend amid profit-taking pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of December 22, the spot gold price is trading at $4,412.31 per ounce, with a 1.72% increase, having reached a high of $4,419.86 and a low of $4,336.91 [1][2]. - Gold prices have increased over 4.5% in December, with only about a week of trading days left in the year [2]. - The average return rate for gold in December over the past 50 years is 1.1%, with a 52% probability of an increase, but the average positive return in months with gains is 4.78% [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent inflation and employment data indicate a cooling economy, leading to heightened expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports gold prices as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and U.S.-China relations, are driving risk sensitivity in the market, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Market activity is expected to decline as the holiday season approaches, with some investors opting to take profits at high levels, potentially constraining gold's upward movement in the short term [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold has just entered the overbought territory, which is typical in a healthy upward trend [5]. - Seasonal support remains strong, with a clear tendency for gold prices to rise around the Christmas trading period, allowing for potential further gains before profit-taking occurs [5]. - The price is currently above the 100-period exponential moving average, indicating a sustained bullish trend, while the Bollinger Bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility [5].