Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

记者丨曹恩惠 编辑丨张伟贤 实际上，多晶硅环节为了整治"内卷式"竞争，正在推进"收储"计划，即通过部分头部企业共同 出资收购除此之外的剩余产能，来强有力地推进产能整合。 就本周表现而言，价格小幅上涨的背后，多晶硅成交相对集中。硅业分会指出，本周多晶硅签 单企业数量维持在4—5家，且大多数成交量集中在头部两家企业，其余企业少量成交。而导致 价格小幅上升的主要原因，在于下游硅片价格回升，部分硅片企业库存压力减少，对上游硅料 价格提升的呈现一定的接受度。 但与前几周相比，本周多晶硅价格涨幅明显收窄。对此，硅业分会认为，主要对于当前的硅料 企业报价，绝大多数企业尚未实现规模性成交。 换言之， 当前多晶硅价格的反弹并未代表硅料需求实质性回暖。 目前，前期积压的库存仍是影响多晶硅价格走势的最大变量。根据硅业分会统计，7月份，国 内多晶硅产品约10.78万吨，前7个月累计产量70.49万吨，同比减少41.5%。这其中，在7月 份，出现了1家企业产能归零的情况，且根据各家企业排产安排，预计8月国内多晶硅产量约 12.5万吨。 若产能整合如期落地，硅业分会预测国内多晶硅年产能将减少至230万吨。而根据中国光伏行 业协会发布的统 ...

7月31日，焦炭期货震荡回落，截至发稿主力合约报1635.5元/吨，跌幅2.88%。 【消息面汇总】 据越南海关总署最新进出口商品数据显示，2025年6月份越南煤炭进口645.68万吨，环比下降10.38%， 同比增长1.44%。2025年1-6月，越南煤炭累计总进口3802.58万吨，同比增长13.26%。 上半年，陕煤运销集团累计销售煤炭1.42亿吨，同比增长2%，销售运行总体平稳、稳中有进，有力保 障了矿区产销平衡和下游用户需求。 7月30日下午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，与会代表一致认为，当前焦炭市场 应尽快再次提涨价格。 机构观点 中州期货：总的来说，昨日中共中央政治局会议召开，表示依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业 产能治理。会议预期落地，并无超预期内容，盘面大幅回调，预计今日震荡运行。 建信期货：核查煤矿生产情况有利于稳定煤炭供应，有效治理煤炭行业低价无序竞争，对此煤炭市场供 需预期由6月份之前的供大于求，明显转为国内供应收缩，叠加5-6月份进口量降幅较大，洗煤厂库存明 显下滑，近期焦炭、焦煤期货价格大幅反弹并走高后明显回落，短期焦炭、焦煤期货价格或跟随钢材期 货，需关注 ...

展望后市，宁证期货表示，近期成本继续抬升，支撑钢价回调后再度反弹，但仍需警惕部分品种过度炒 涨引发的调整风险，淡季钢材需求也不稳定。短期钢价或高位震荡，涨跌反复的情况仍存。 宏观方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议分析研究当前经济形 势，部署下半年经济工作，要求依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。 基本面上，铜冠金源期货分析称，关注午后钢联数据，预计产销偏弱格局维持。8月中旬北方将迎来阅 兵限产，供应收缩预期影响逐步增强。 7月31日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，螺纹钢期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约 报3229.00元/吨，跌幅3.47%。 现货方面，华联期货指出，7月30日全国主要城市HRB400E20MM螺纹钢报价小幅上涨，上海3440涨 10，广州3480涨30，天津3370涨10。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

螺纹钢： 昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹2510合约收盘价格为3315元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌32元/ 吨，跌幅0.96%，持仓减少14.6万手。价格小幅波动，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨30元/吨 至3180元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3400元/吨，全国建材成交量8.2万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周 全国建材产量回落3.07万吨至414.95万吨，社库增加4.61万吨至551.23万吨，厂库减少6.18万吨至299.58 万吨，建材表需回落18.69万吨至416.52万吨。建材产量继续小幅下降，库存略有降低，表需回落，市场 整体处于供需双弱局面。中共中央政治局指出，要依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治 理。目前螺纹供需基本面驱动不强，市场对于反内卷政策推进预期存在一定反复。预计短期螺纹盘面或 震荡整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 周三，硅铁期价高开低走，主力合约报收6008元/吨，环比上涨0.77%，主力合约持仓环比基本持平。各 地区72号硅铁汇总价5650-5700元/吨，内蒙古地区较前一日上调100元/吨、宁夏地区较前一日上调150 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体偏强，部分品种小幅下挫， ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs Futures Prices: On July 30, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities gained, with poly-silicon, coke and coal leading the gains. Commentary: Poly-Silicon, Silicon Metal, Lithium Carbonate 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | ...

2025 年 7 月 31 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/31 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 铝 | | 液化石油气 | 原油 | | | 锌 | | 三十债 | 燃油 | | | 氧化铝 | | 白糖 | 沥青 | | | 棉花 | | 工业硅 | 二债 | | | 棉纱 | | 多晶硅 | 五债 | | | 尿素 | | 乙二醇 | 十债 | | | 硅铁 | | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 纯碱 | | PTA | 上证50股指期货 | | | 生猪 | ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on the economic situation and planning for the second half of 2025[2] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a focus on unleashing domestic demand and preventing risks in key sectors[2] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to enhance the certainty of future economic development, aligning with market expectations[2] U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[3] - There is an increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members opposing the rate decision, suggesting a potential for future rate cuts if economic slowdown continues[3] - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on inflation trends, with indications that the impact of tariffs on prices may take longer than anticipated[3] Commodity and Industry Updates - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new capacities in copper smelting and alumina, addressing over-investment in certain sectors[4] - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling over 18%[4] - Major memory manufacturers are exiting niche DRAM markets, which may lead to price increases for DDR4 DRAM in 2025 and 2026 due to supply-demand reversals[5] Market Performance Indicators - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.727%, with a change of -1.41 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.2123, reflecting a 0.44% increase, while the U.S. dollar index stands at 99.97, up by 1.06%[8] - The A-share market's trading volume over the past six months is reported at 1.871 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.11%[17] Industry Trends - The top three performing sectors are steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and media, indicating strong sectoral performance[22] - The net capital inflow for the top three sectors on a given day includes media, food and beverage, and social services, suggesting investor interest in these areas[24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].