Core Viewpoint - December saw a decline in revenue for industrial enterprises, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while profits improved with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, marking a significant turnaround from the previous month's -13.1% [2][11] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - The profit margin growth in December was a key support for the overall profit improvement, with a notable recovery in profit rates [11][16] - The revenue decline was slightly offset by a narrowing of price drag, but overall revenue contraction still impacted profitability [11][16] - The year-on-year profit growth of 5.3% in December was a significant increase of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018 [11][14] Group 2: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB since late 2025 has led to a return of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales differences indicating a trend towards repatriating profits [5][11] - The expectation of RMB appreciation has historically been associated with an increase in the ratio of bank foreign exchange settlement differences to trade balances, reaching 25.9% in 2025, the second-highest since 2015 [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [6][14] - In December, the mining, raw materials, and processing assembly industries saw improvements in profit, while the consumer goods manufacturing sector continued to face pressure [14][16] - The high-tech manufacturing sector reported a profit growth of 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points [14] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The nominal inventory growth rate declined to 3.9% in December, with actual inventory growth also falling, indicating weak domestic demand [9][17] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector is actively reducing inventory, while the equipment manufacturing sector is primarily focused on replenishing stock, reflecting the contrasting performance of these industries [9][17] - The production turnover days for industrial enterprises decreased to 19.9 days, suggesting ongoing operational pressures despite seasonal improvements in sales rates [17]

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 103029 | 0 | 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（1月27日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计103029千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 地缘冲突和贸易摩擦引发避险情绪，全球主流机构上调价格预测，资金提前配置支撑金价，人民币升值 导致国内价格弱于外盘。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周二（1月27日）黄金期货开盘价1145.94元/克，截至目前最高1154.46元/克， 最低1112.78元/克。截止发稿报1148.38元/克，涨幅1.52%，成交量为401545手，持仓为217484手，日持 仓增加1664手。 国际金价收涨 1.99% 报 4762.65 美元 / 盎司，创 "二连阳"；国内金价在 20 日均线上方运行。 ...

中信建投证券研报认为，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，其对家电龙头盈利的冲击 整体可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需求有支撑，元旦后提 价存共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、成熟的成本传导机制以及完善的汇率风险管理体系，龙头企业有能 力穿越周期波动，维持盈利模型的稳健。当前家电板块估值处于历史低位，兼具稳健增长与高分红特 性，配置价值凸显。(本文来自第一财经) (家电网® HEA.CN) ...

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：进退两难的日元再度迎来"干预窗口" 上周五（1 月 23 日），日元在日央行发布会后以及美国交易时间出现快速升 值，截至周一（1 月 26 日）的两个交易日内累计升值 2.6%至 154.2 日元/美 元，背后主要是美国和日本释放出"利率检查"（"rate check"）信号，市场 猜测美日未来或联合干预日元汇率。历史上，日本当局在"利率检查"后较 短时间内就会启动汇率干预，若外汇干预落地，短期或推动日元升值。鉴于 日央行货币政策大幅落后于利率曲线，或已错失"优雅转身"的最佳时间窗 口：日本财政扩张预期叠加利率落后于曲线，日债收益率或易上难下，日元 资产亦或进入高波动阶段。 风险提示：日本众议院选举结果超预期；日本通胀水平超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-26 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：1 月 FOMC ...

中信建投研报认为，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，其对家电龙头盈利的冲击整体 可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需求有支撑，元旦后提价存 共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、成熟的成本传导机制以及完善的汇率风险管理体系，龙头企业有能力穿 越周期波动，维持盈利模型的稳健。当前家电板块估值处于历史低位，兼具稳健增长与高分红特性，配 置价值凸显。 ...

January 23, 2026 09:51 AM GMT 亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：中国：人民币升值是否 有助于再平衡？ 我们不认同近期市场上日渐形成的观点⸺认为人民币升值将 有助于推动中国经济再平衡。大幅升值将阻碍通缩出清、压 缩企业利润率，并放缓工资增速。要实现可持续的再平衡， 仍需要大规模财政宽松以提振消费。 要点 In this report, we discuss why we think RMB appreciation will be more limited than the emerging consensus, and why it would not help ease deflationary pressures and rebalance the economy. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of ...

人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾： 本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上 行。1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行1.88%； 2）权益 方面， 本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市 场中巴西、阿根廷股价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前， 银行跌幅较大，港股耐用消费品领涨； 3）商品方面， 本周黄金上涨8.3%，主要是因为 地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 聚焦热点：人民币升值期间大类资产表现复盘 ：2000年以来，人民币汇率共经历了6轮升 值与4轮贬值，人民币汇率变化主要受到汇率制度改革、全球贸易周期以及中美货币政策 周期变化的影响。 国内大类资产方面，人民币升值期间，股票稳定的胜率更高，债券和 商品表现规律并不统一。 股票方面 ，创业板整体跑赢沪深300（除2017年），小盘整体 跑赢大盘（除2017年）。 债券方面， 2017、2023、2025年升值期间，国债指数录得负收 益，其他几 ...

Global Market Overview - During the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026, geopolitical conflicts intensified, leading to an increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 4.2%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.88%[6] Asset Performance During RMB Appreciation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced 6 rounds of appreciation and 4 rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles[8] - During RMB appreciation, stocks generally showed higher stability, with the ChiNext outperforming the CSI 300, except in 2017[10] - In the bond market, the national debt index recorded negative returns during appreciation periods in 2017, 2023, and 2025, while other periods showed positive returns[10] Fund Flows - As of January 21, 2026, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds inflowing $3.38 billion and passive funds inflowing $16.65 billion[3] - Domestic capital saw an outflow of $493.17 billion, while foreign capital inflow totaled $20.03 billion in the same week[3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the KOSPI 200, CAC 40, and S&P 500, reaching 92.9% of its 10-year historical average[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite remains relatively high, indicating good allocation value compared to global markets[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has remained low, indicating economic cooling[5] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% is 95.60%, stable compared to the previous week[5]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB to an offshore price of 6.97 is attributed to a shift in the currency issuance method, moving from reliance on export earnings to purchasing government bonds for liquidity management [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has transitioned to buying and selling government bonds in the secondary market, maintaining its independence and avoiding direct money printing for government spending, indicating an upgrade in regulatory tools [3][8] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to continue, driven by a decline in confidence in the USD due to issues within the US economy, while China's exports remain strong, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion last year [5][8] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB has mixed effects; it makes imports cheaper but poses challenges for export-oriented businesses, particularly those with thin profit margins [6] - Companies are advised to use forward foreign exchange contracts to hedge against currency fluctuations, rather than speculating on exchange rates [6] - The PBOC's current monetary policy is more robust, avoiding reliance on a single issuance model and not engaging in fiscal deficit monetization, reflecting a structural change in the economy [8]