1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated within a narrow range. After the news of China - US economic and trade consultations was released, although no substantial agreement was reached, external uncertainty risks decreased. With the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the expectation of policy benefits increased, the risk appetite of the stock market rebounded significantly, and the demand for treasury bonds was suppressed. From a macro perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is insufficient, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is lacking [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market is generally weak, with most yields of inter - bank market bonds rising, and long - term bonds performing poorly. The bond market is expected to fluctuate for some time, and its performance depends on the stock market, Sino - US talks, and the implementation of new regulations on fund redemptions [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF for the 8th consecutive month. Although the manufacturing PMI in September improved, it was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract (T2512.CFE) dropped 0.06% to 108.005, the 5 - year main contract (TF2512.CFE) decreased 0.05% to 105.615, and the 2 - year main contract (TS2512.CFE) fell 0.01% to 102.332 [3][7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The inter - bank market's funds remained balanced and stable, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions stable at around 1.32%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is favorable for the stock market, but there are few direct economic stimulus policies, so the pressure on bonds is not significant [3]. - On October 27, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Since 700 billion yuan of MLF matured in October, the net MLF investment this month reached 200 billion yuan, marking the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [3]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract is 0.0123, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of the TF main contract is - 0.0168, meaning the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the T main contract is 0.0235, and the basis of the TL main contract is 0.2081, both showing that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which are bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. 3.6 Position Analysis - The net position of the TS main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the TF main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the T main contract is long, but the long position is decreasing [4].

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with the latest price at 107.24 yuan [3] - The ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 1.31% as of October 22, 2025 [3] - The recent issuance of a government bond with a planned issuance of 55 billion yuan was fully subscribed, with an annual yield of 1.35% [3] Market Overview - As of the end of September 2025, foreign institutions held 3.78 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [4] - Among the bonds held by foreign institutions, 2.00 trillion yuan were government bonds, representing 52.9% of their holdings [4] - The market has seen the entry of 11 new foreign institutional entities into the interbank bond market in September [4] Economic Context - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations has eased, leading to a reduction in risk-averse sentiment [4] - There are ongoing concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, necessitating a supportive monetary environment to stabilize demand [4] - The pressure to achieve economic growth targets for 2025 is relatively low, indicating strong resilience in the macro economy [4] ETF Performance - The latest scale of the Bosera 30-year government bond ETF reached 17.509 billion yuan [4] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, reflecting the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of government bond futures, with varying changes across different maturities [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract remained flat [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract increased by 0.04% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract rose by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract saw an increase of 0.10% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation remains weak, and the overall loose capital situation may drive the bond market to fluctuate strongly. However, uncertainties such as Sino-US trade policies and the new regulations on public fund fees will continue to affect market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The strategy suggests a band - trading approach [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 392, 9672, and 4833 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 11147 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - Most futures spreads showed an upward trend, such as TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.01, T2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.02, TF2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03, etc. Some spreads decreased, like T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.26 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also increased to varying degrees [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - Some bonds' clean prices increased, such as 250018.IB increased by 0.0290, 250003.IB increased by 0.0473, etc. Some remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities all increased. For example, the 1 - year yield increased by 7.50bp, the 3 - year yield increased by 1.50bp, etc. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Most short - term interest rates increased. For example, the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.82bp, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.33bp, etc. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 1595 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 910 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2] 3.9 Industry News - In October, the LPR quotation remained stable. The central government arranged 5000 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to be issued to local areas, and will advance the issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, social consumption growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd. The US September unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released at 20:30 on October 24th [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market lacks catalytic factors. Although the bond market is not significantly affected by the A - share market, it also lacks momentum. The trading of treasury bond futures should be based on a volatile mindset. Holders of long positions at low levels can hold a small amount, and those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Performance - On Thursday, treasury bond futures fluctuated. T and TL closed up, while TF and TS closed down. Except for the relatively large decline in ultra - long bond yields, other bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 236 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan [1]. - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M1 - M2 gap reached a new high this year. In September, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [2]. b) Market Sentiment and Trading Strategy - The A - share market had a shrinking - volume fluctuation today. Although the broader market closed up, the number of falling stocks was more than that of rising stocks, and market sentiment was cautious. The bond market was not greatly affected but lacked momentum, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures varieties decreased significantly. In the short - term, there are no catalytic factors in the market. Even if treasury bond futures cannot break through upwards, the downward fall space is also limited. Traders should adopt a volatile trading strategy. Those with long positions at low levels can hold a small amount, and those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions [3]. c) Data Comparison | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Position on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.368 | 102.372 | - 0.004 | 74,561 | 74,012 | 549 | | TF2512 | 105.705 | 105.715 | - 0.01 | 158,704 | 157,295 | 1409 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.1 | 0.06 | 261,675 | 256,645 | 5030 | | TL2512 | 115.02 | 114.48 | 0.54 | 182,946 | 178,318 | 4628 | | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Basis Change | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 16 | Main Contract Trading Volume on 2025 - 10 - 15 | Trading Volume Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | - 0.0216 | - 0.0312 | 0.0096 | 26,753 | 24,518 | 2235 | | TF | - 0.0228 | - 0.0497 | 0.0269 | 42,876 | 47,109 | - 4233 | | T | 0.0489 | 0.1258 | - 0.0769 | 62,951 | 89,364 | - 26413 | | TL | 0.2778 | - 0.0129 | 0.2907 | 110,395 | 122,948 | - 12553 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. The Sino - US trade dispute may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20th, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some individual stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave the market in the short term. However, the long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, and the short - term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity. One can deploy small - position out - of - the - money call options for November. For treasury bond futures, the central bank's operations have led to a marginal loosening of the capital market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 15, 2025, IH was at 2,997.4, up 39.0 or 1.32% from the previous day; IF was at 4,576.4, up 69.2 or 1.54%; IC was at 7,140.2, up 130.2 or 1.86%; IM was at 7,275.2, up 129.4 or 1.81% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index was at 3,001.3, up 40.2 or 1.36%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4,606.3, up 67.2 or 1.48%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7,294.0, up 99.2 or 1.38%; the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,483.4, up 110.3 or 1.50% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 15, 2025, TS was at 102.38, unchanged; TF was at 105.73, down 0.045 or - 0.04%; T was at 108.13, down 0.04 or - 0.04%; TL was at 114.58, down 0.18 or - 0.16% [3] 3.2 Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market fluctuated strongly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3,900 points. Over 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [5] - **Industry Sectors**: Robot, innovative drugs, automobile manufacturing, and smart grid sectors led the gains, while shipping ports, agriculture, lithography machines, and rare - earth permanent magnets sectors declined [5] - **Popular Concepts**: Robot concept stocks strengthened, with many stocks such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Wuzhou Spring hitting the daily limit. The innovative drug sector rose, with Anglikang and Lianhuan Pharmaceutical hitting the limit. Automobile manufacturing stocks soared, with Zhongtong Bus and Haima Automobile hitting the limit. The data center power supply concept was active, with Heshun Electric and Jinpan Technology hitting the limit. On the decline side, lithography machine concept stocks continued to adjust, with Xinlaiyingcai falling more than 10% [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, including the trends of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures closing prices and their basis [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, including the trends of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds, and related basis and spread data [14][15][16][17][18][20] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [23][24][26][28][31] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [32] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [32]

Market Performance - Treasury futures opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract down 0.14%, the 10-year main contract down 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract unchanged [1] - Major interbank interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield up 0.4 basis points to 1.9370%, the 10-year treasury bond "25附息国债11" yield up 0.45 basis points to 1.7570%, and the 30-year treasury bond "25超长特别国债02" yield up 0.25 basis points to 2.1075% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 43.5 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on October 15, with an operation rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 43.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market continued to show ample liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions stabilizing at a low level of 1.31% [2] - Long-term funding conditions indicated that the latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was at 1.665%, showing little change from the previous day [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's September PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 2.4%, and improved from a previous decline of 2.9% [3] - The September CPI fell by 0.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, but improved from a previous decline of 0.4% [3] - The central bank reported that in the first three quarters of the year, new RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3 [4] - The current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the long-short interest rate spread may limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - The market remains cautious, influenced by risk preferences and institutional behaviors, with uncertainty regarding the bond market's recovery [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that government bond futures opened higher across the board on October 16, indicating a positive market sentiment towards long-term debt instruments [1] Group 2 - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.16% to 114.660 yuan [1] - The 10-year main contract increased by 0.01% to 108.115 yuan [1] - The 5-year main contract remained unchanged at 105.710 yuan [1] - The 2-year main contract rose by 0.01% to 102.382 yuan [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation shows that China's CPI in September declined slightly compared to the previous value, the decline of PPI prices has narrowed for two consecutive months, and the core CPI continues to recover. In terms of trade, the year - on - year growth rate of imports in September rebounded significantly, and exports to major economies such as ASEAN and the EU continued to grow. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, with a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped to the critical point, and overall production and business activities remained in expansion. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end and is worried about the continuous weakening of the US labor market, and the market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cut in October remains firm. The probability of the new round of tariff hikes actually taking effect is low. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Strategically, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading approach and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively, while the TS main contract remained unchanged. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 36447, 26353, 7649, and 32987 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 decreased, while T2512 - 2603, TS2512 - 2603 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while the TF main contract increased. The net short positions of T and TF decreased, while those of TS and TL increased [2]. 3.2 CTD and Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, such as 220019.IB, while others decreased, such as 250018.IB [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 2.50bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 1.36bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 0.90bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic News**: China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 4000 billion yuan in October [2]. - **Overseas News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [2]. 3.5 Key Events to Watch - On October 16 at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. At 20:30 on the same day, the US September retail sales month - on - month rate will be announced [3].