隔夜美联储如期降息25个基点,三人投出反对票体现内部分歧,同时宣布在未来30天内购买400亿 美元短债，点阵图中值维持对明后两年各降息1次的预期。鲍威尔称就业下行风险上升,可以等待并 观察经济如何发展，利率处于中性水平区间的上端。特朗普即将公布的美联储主席人选将影响未来 政策预期的波动。贵金属总体维持震荡偏强趋势,黄金突破前高阻力前整体不宜追高。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月11日 (原油) EIA周度数据显示石油库存意外去库。委内瑞拉地缘局势紧张,特朗普公开证实美军于委内瑞拉海岸 附近扣押一艘油轮，释放出美国针对委内领导人的行动出现重大升级信号。俄罗斯拒绝了乌克兰的 能源停火协议后，乌克兰立刻行动在黑海击中了另一艘俄罗斯"影子舰队"的油轮。地缘消息再度 激发市场对于石油供应犹动的担忧,夜盘油价迎来阶段性反弹。平衡表显示明年一季度市场仍面临 更大的累库预期,中长期油价的下行驱动仍在。 【贵金属】 【铜】 隔夜联储降息兑现、下月节奏不确定，伦铜尾盘回吐涨幅,但鲍威尔扩表阐述与点阵图显示通胀经 济都偏温和,带动美盘铜价上涨。预计市场短线继续消化这一主题。临近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced for the eleventh time in 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 55 yuan per ton, effective from December 8, 2025 [1][4]. Price Adjustment Summary - The price reduction means that filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost 2 yuan less [1][4]. - In 2025, there have been a total of 24 adjustments to domestic fuel prices, categorized as 7 increases, 11 decreases, and 6 unchanged [1][4]. International Oil Price Trends - During the recent price adjustment cycle (November 24 to December 5), international oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations [5]. - The average international oil price level decreased compared to the previous adjustment cycle, influenced by disappointing U.S. economic data and fluctuating market sentiments due to geopolitical risks [8]. - Key factors affecting oil prices include a decrease in U.S. ADP employment numbers by 32,000, which is the lowest since March 2023, raising concerns about economic outlook and oil demand [8]. - Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly, with commercial crude oil stocks rising by 570,000 barrels and strategic petroleum reserve stocks increasing by 250,000 barrels as of November 28 [8]. Future Outlook - Experts from the National Development and Reform Commission anticipate that international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to overall loose global oil supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - Future developments to monitor include changes in the geopolitical situation regarding Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8].

继上一轮压线下调后，今晚过后成品油价将迎来"两连跌"。 本轮调价后，私家车主和物流企业出行成本将进一步降低。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私 家车计算，本次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花2元左右；按市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型，平均每行 驶一百公里费用减少0.3元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃油 费用将减少2元左右。 本轮调价周期内，国际原油价格呈现跌后反弹趋势，但整体均价依然下行。据金联创分析师王延婷介 绍，计价周期前期，市场关注新一轮俄乌问题会谈，俄乌局势或迎拐点的预期导致油价承压。但地缘政 治局势并未真正缓解，一方面美俄高层会谈未达成解决乌克兰问题的折中方案，市场预计美国和欧洲针 对俄罗斯原油出口的制裁措施短期内无法取消。另外，委内瑞拉局势方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体 发文称，委内瑞拉上空及周边空域"被视为全面关闭"。 而在市场供应方面，王延婷表示，石油输出国组织欧佩克（OPEC）近日发表声明，OPEC+8个主要产 油国决定维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年一季度暂停增产。市场资源供应减少预期支撑下，原油 价格震荡反弹，但上涨幅度有限，整体均价依然走低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices in China, highlighting a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices, which is expected to lower travel costs for private car owners and logistics companies [5]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of December 8, 2025, gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 55 yuan per ton, marking the 24th adjustment of the year with a pattern of "seven increases, eleven decreases, and six stasis" [5]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 745 yuan/ton and 715 yuan/ton respectively compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - The price reduction translates to a decrease of approximately 0.04 to 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel, bringing prices in most regions to 6.4-6.6 yuan/liter for diesel and 6.7-6.8 yuan/liter for gasoline [5]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - The price cut is expected to reduce costs for private car owners and logistics companies. For instance, filling a 50-liter tank will save about 2 yuan, and the cost per 100 kilometers for a typical car will decrease by approximately 0.3 yuan [5]. - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers will also decrease by around 2 yuan [5]. International Oil Market Context - During the price adjustment period, international crude oil prices showed a rebound after a decline, but the overall average price remains low [6]. - Factors influencing oil prices include ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela, which have kept market expectations for supply risks elevated [6]. - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan, indicating a pause in production increases, which has contributed to the recent fluctuations in oil prices [6]. Future Price Expectations - The next price adjustment window will open on December 22, 2025, with expectations leaning towards a price increase due to ongoing geopolitical instability and potential supply risks [7]. - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of an increase in fuel prices in the next adjustment is relatively high, influenced by the geopolitical landscape and OPEC+ production strategies [7].

本轮调价后，多地92号汽油零售价将降至6.7元-6.8元/升。 本轮调价周期内，国际原油价格呈现跌后反弹趋势，但整体均价依然下行。据金联创分析师王延婷介绍，计价周期前期，市场关注新一轮俄乌问题会谈，俄 乌局势或迎拐点的预期导致油价承压。但地缘政治局势并未真正缓解，一方面美俄高层会谈未达成解决乌克兰问题的折中方案，市场预计美国和欧洲针对俄 罗斯原油出口的制裁措施短期内无法取消。另外，委内瑞拉局势方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，委内瑞拉上空及周边空域"被视为全面关闭"。 而在市场供应方面，王延婷表示，石油输出国组织欧佩克（OPEC）近日发表声明，OPEC+8个主要产油国决定维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年一季 度暂停增产。市场资源供应减少预期支撑下，原油价格震荡反弹，但上涨幅度有限，整体均价依然走低。 继上一轮压线下调后，今晚过后成品油价将迎来"两连跌"。 据国家发改委官网12月8日消息，即日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨均将下调55元。至此，国内成品油价格已经历24轮调整，呈现"七涨十一跌六搁浅"格 局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油价格整体分别较2024年底下跌745元/吨、715元/吨。 本轮成品油 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 有些时候，当投资周期走到尽头，明智的做法是套现离场，但对于那些已经在股市连续三年获得两位数 涨幅的全球资产管理公司来说，现在还不是跑路的时候。 摩根大通资产管理的全球多资产策略师Sylvia Sheng表示，"我们对稳健增长以及宽松货币和财政政策的 预期，支持我们在多资产投资组合中采取风险偏好的倾向。我们仍然超配股票和信贷。" DWS美洲首席投资官David Bianco说，"我们正在顺应当前的强劲趋势，并看涨至明年年底，目前我们 不做逆向投资者。" "年初应保持充足的敞口，甚至是超额配置股票，主要是新兴市场股票，"Lombard Odier的EMEA首席投 资官Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe也表示。"我们预计2026年不会发生衰退。" 这些评估来自机构对美国、亚洲和欧洲的39位投资经理的采访，其中包括贝莱德、安联全球、高盛和富 兰克林邓普顿的经理。 采访显示，超过四分之三的资产配置者正在为到2026年的风险偏好环境配置投资组合。这一押注的核心 在于，具有韧性的全球增长、人工智能的进一步发展、宽松的货币政策和财政刺激将在各类全球 ...

金联创能源分析师王珊补充称，从利好方面来看，在本轮调价周期内，OPEC+8国保持暂停增产政策以 及美联储降息预期升温，还对国际油价起到了支撑作用，同时，俄罗斯原油也因不可抗力供应减少的预 期而利好国际油价表现。 展望后市，国家发展改革委价格监测中心预计，在全球原油供应总体宽松而地缘政治局势仍存变数的背 景下，短期内国际油价将维持震荡走势。后续需关注俄乌及委内瑞拉地缘局势变化，及美联储降息路径 选择等。 卓创资讯成品油分析师王雪琴向记者表示，后期来看，除了需要关注美联储降息之外，市场更应关注后 续美联储的降息节奏问题，即美元趋势性走弱可能为原油价格带来长期提振。短期来看，国际油价也或 维持偏强运行行情。 根据成品油调价"十个工作日"原则，今晚24时，国内成品油零售价有望"压线"下调！ 从本轮计价周期(2025年11月24日24时至12月8日24时)来看，受国际市场空好交织影响，国际原油价格 呈现窄幅波动行情，变化率持续处于负值范围运行。据卓创资讯（301299）测算，截至12月5日收盘， 国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率-1.24%，12月8日24时汽油、柴油零售价每吨或均下调55元，折合升 价92号汽油、95 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-08 【本周重点关注】 12 月 8 日 11:00，海关总署将公布中国 11 月进出口数据。 12 月 10 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布 11 月 CPI 和 PPI。 12 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 11 月金融统计数据报告、11 月社会融资规模增量统计数据 报告、11 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 12 月 11 日 03:00，美联储将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。03:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 预期，美联储将联邦基金利率下调 25 个基点。 重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普和美联储官员讲话等因素对于期货市场的 影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 12月8日 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil contracts showed an overall oscillating trend this week, following the fluctuation rhythm of international crude oil. The main influencing factors were OPEC gradually relaxing production cuts, the release of spare production capacity in oil - producing countries like Saudi Arabia, and the increase in medium - sulfur crude oil supply, which supported the fuel oil supply and might further grow after refinery maintenance ended. Russia's refinery operating rate declined due to intensified US sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks, but the high - sulfur fuel oil shipment in November was expected to be 2.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons, showing signs of supply recovery. If the situation in Ukraine eases, it might drive a further increase in Russian supply [2]. - The fuel oil market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, affected by crude oil oscillations, inventory fluctuations, and marginal changes in industrial supply and demand. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the market is suppressed by crude oil prices above and supported by refinery substitution demand and trade easing below, lacking a continuous trend driver. Future attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, geopolitical situation changes, Singapore fuel oil inventory changes, domestic fuel oil production, and import - export data changes [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,501 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,522 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,426 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 2,548,897 lots, and the open interest was 201,892 lots, a decrease of 21,702 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern of near - term high and long - term low, showing a near - strong and long - weak performance overall. The liquidity of the main contract FU2601 continued to be concentrated, and the open interest of the FU2602 contract also showed a steady increase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - The fuel oil benchmark price decreased compared with the beginning of last month, but specific values were not provided in the text [10].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some stores showing a decline. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price dropped by 8 CNY per gram, now priced at 1328 CNY per gram, which is among the highest prices in the market [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has narrowed to 96 CNY per gram, indicating a more uniform pricing structure across different brands [1] - Detailed quotes from various gold stores show that the highest price is 1328 CNY per gram from multiple brands, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices are also showing a downward trend, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price decreasing by 5 CNY per gram to 669 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has decreased by 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands. For example, the recycling price for gold is 945.80 CNY per gram [2] - Other notable recycling prices include 921.80 CNY per gram from China Gold and 911.10 CNY per gram from Chow Sang Sang [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold reached a six-week high at 4264.28 USD per ounce but fell to 4230.33 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 4225.18 USD per ounce, showing a minor decline of 0.12% [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have supported gold prices [4] - The market anticipates an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to keep gold prices in a strong consolidation to upward trend in the long term [4]